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  • Panekkkk
    SBR MVP
    • 03-12-09
    • 2430

    #141
    Originally posted by Panekkkk
    May 17 2010

    HOME

    2* ATL -140
    2* STL -159
    2* LAD -159

    All plays are a go despite line movements. Adding some parlays as well:

    PARLAYS

    All plays, +2.5 = 1.2 units to win 1
    All plays, ML = 1 unit to win 3.59 units
    Well, Atlanta game was the difference between cashing 10 units and only cashing 1 unit. Close game too with the Braves having more than enough chances to tie the game but came up short! Back in the positive tho.

    STD
    Home: 8-5 for +1.01 units
    Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

    Parlays

    1-1 +0 units
    Comment
    • Panekkkk
      SBR MVP
      • 03-12-09
      • 2430

      #142
      No plays today.

      Getting more and more excited as more data comes in. 2/3 plays hit ML and RL yesterday. Will begin to vary unit sizes by the end of the month.
      Comment
      • Panekkkk
        SBR MVP
        • 03-12-09
        • 2430

        #143
        MAY 19, 2010

        POTENTIAL PLAYS

        HOME

        Arizona -147
        White Sox -154

        ROAD

        Brewers -146

        Not so thrilled about these plays so I may play them for small units only. The Diamondback's line has already jumped nearly 20 points which, as a filter, has not performed well. Curious about the White Sox qualifying but I think the edge is in the fact that their bats woke up yesterday. Tough to lay on a team on an 8-game losing skid in the Brewers as well. So, as always, gonna let these sit. Will finalize later tonight but I might just hold off. I really like Arizona but I hate the huge line jump.
        Comment
        • Panekkkk
          SBR MVP
          • 03-12-09
          • 2430

          #144
          All three plays a go, but each for one unit only.
          Comment
          • Panekkkk
            SBR MVP
            • 03-12-09
            • 2430

            #145
            Originally posted by Panekkkk
            MAY 19, 2010

            POTENTIAL PLAYS

            HOME

            Arizona -147
            White Sox -154

            ROAD

            Brewers -146

            Not so thrilled about these plays so I may play them for small units only. The Diamondback's line has already jumped nearly 20 points which, as a filter, has not performed well. Curious about the White Sox qualifying but I think the edge is in the fact that their bats woke up yesterday. Tough to lay on a team on an 8-game losing skid in the Brewers as well. So, as always, gonna let these sit. Will finalize later tonight but I might just hold off. I really like Arizona but I hate the huge line jump.
            Only game I liked ended up winning (D-Backs). Didn't have time to wait for the line movements and the Brewers line ended up dropping 15 points which would have made it a no play .

            STD

            Home: 9-6 for +0.49 units
            Road: 3-3 for -1.25 units

            Parlays

            1-1 +0 units
            Comment
            • Panekkkk
              SBR MVP
              • 03-12-09
              • 2430

              #146
              May 20, 2010

              POTENTIAL PLAYS

              HOME

              2* Braves -150
              2* Dodgers -160

              PARLAY

              Both plays, ML 1 unit

              As always, will confirm as the day progresses. 10 cent or greater line movement = NO PLAY.
              Comment
              • Panekkkk
                SBR MVP
                • 03-12-09
                • 2430

                #147
                All plays stand. Gotta parlay now due to time difference.
                Comment
                • Panekkkk
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-12-09
                  • 2430

                  #148
                  So much for the Braves ...
                  Comment
                  • GGPLAYER
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-26-09
                    • 2981

                    #149
                    I had the under.....7 runs with 2 outs.
                    Comment
                    • Panekkkk
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-12-09
                      • 2430

                      #150
                      Yeah, Hanson just exploded. If Atlanta ends up losing today that will mark 4 home teams that have lost when the line has moved 10 cents or more in their favor (e.g., -140 to -150, -155, etc.) while only 3 teams have won with similar line movements. Same trend for the road teams which might make that a good filter moving forward. Basically when the public starts hammering a line, time to back off!!!

                      I just want to get enough data on this to start getting it going in full swing!
                      Comment
                      • Panekkkk
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-12-09
                        • 2430

                        #151
                        !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                        !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                        !!!!!!!!!

                        !!!

                        !

                        I normally never throw-in the towel in baseball and call a game over early ... but I figured an 8-run lead meant the game was over. Never been on the right side of such a comeback! That was sick. My condolences to Reds-backers.
                        Comment
                        • Panekkkk
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-12-09
                          • 2430

                          #152
                          Originally posted by Panekkkk
                          May 20, 2010

                          POTENTIAL PLAYS

                          HOME

                          2* Braves -150
                          2* Dodgers -160

                          PARLAY

                          Both plays, ML 1 unit

                          As always, will confirm as the day progresses. 10 cent or greater line movement = NO PLAY.
                          Well, hard to even consider the Braves game a win...

                          STD

                          Home: 11-6 for +4.49 units
                          Road: 3-3 for -1.25 units

                          Parlays

                          2-1 +1.64 units
                          Comment
                          • GGPLAYER
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-26-09
                            • 2981

                            #153
                            Originally posted by Panekkkk
                            !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                            !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                            !!!!!!!!!

                            !!!

                            !

                            I normally never throw-in the towel in baseball and call a game over early ... but I figured an 8-run lead meant the game was over. Never been on the right side of such a comeback! That was sick. My condolences to Reds-backers.

                            Good for you buddy. Like you said it seems we are never on the right side of games like that. Unreal...what a 9th!
                            Comment
                            • Panekkkk
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-12-09
                              • 2430

                              #154
                              May 23, 2010

                              HOME

                              2* Atlanta -142

                              ROAD

                              2* Oakland -113
                              1* Florida -132

                              STD

                              Home: 11-6 for +4.49 units
                              Road: 3-3 for -1.25 units

                              Parlays

                              2-1 +1.64 units

                              Waiting for lineups to finalize. Line dropping heavy for Braves because Heyward, McCann and Jones out... Probably a no play with so many starters out. Braves boast a strong bench though.
                              Comment
                              • Panekkkk
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-12-09
                                • 2430

                                #155
                                Also have two strong under systems pointing to Minny/Mil under 10 (bought up 0.5). With no Mauer in the lineup I love it even more!
                                Comment
                                • Panekkkk
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-12-09
                                  • 2430

                                  #156
                                  Looking like I might scratch both Oakland and Braves...
                                  Comment
                                  • Panekkkk
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-12-09
                                    • 2430

                                    #157
                                    Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                    May 23, 2010

                                    HOME

                                    2* Atlanta -142

                                    ROAD

                                    2* Oakland -113
                                    1* Florida -132

                                    STD

                                    Home: 11-6 for +4.49 units
                                    Road: 3-3 for -1.25 units

                                    Parlays

                                    2-1 +1.64 units

                                    Waiting for lineups to finalize. Line dropping heavy for Braves because Heyward, McCann and Jones out... Probably a no play with so many starters out. Braves boast a strong bench though.
                                    Looks like Florida will be the only play going forward.
                                    Comment
                                    • Panekkkk
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-12-09
                                      • 2430

                                      #158
                                      Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                      May 23, 2010

                                      HOME

                                      2* Atlanta -142

                                      ROAD

                                      2* Oakland -113
                                      1* Florida -132

                                      Waiting for lineups to finalize. Line dropping heavy for Braves because Heyward, McCann and Jones out... Probably a no play with so many starters out. Braves boast a strong bench though.
                                      Oakland ended up winning as well but held off because of some weird numbers. Can't complain with a win though . Slow 'n steady


                                      STD

                                      Home: 11-6 for +4.49 units
                                      Road: 4-3 for -0.25 units

                                      Parlays

                                      2-1 +1.64 units
                                      Comment
                                      • Panekkkk
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-12-09
                                        • 2430

                                        #159
                                        Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                        Also have two strong under systems pointing to Minny/Mil under 10 (bought up 0.5). With no Mauer in the lineup I love it even more!
                                        Big hit on this
                                        Comment
                                        • Panekkkk
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-12-09
                                          • 2430

                                          #160
                                          May 24, 2010

                                          3* Rays -155
                                          1* Rays RL

                                          STD

                                          Home: 11-6 for +4.49 units
                                          Road: 4-3 for -0.25 units

                                          Parlays

                                          2-1 +1.64 units

                                          Play stands regardless of line movement.

                                          So I've been tracking this intensely for a while now and only posting the strongest plays. As expected, the system is picking up as the season moves along with line makers no longer relying on projections. With no filters at all, the system is 24-7 since May 14th... Home teams are 35-10 so far, unfiltered, since the start of the season. I'm still trying to be very selective and improve the win percentage with filters but with the system hitting at a higher clip now I might start playing all plays and just playing higher units on select plays. Braves (road team) met the system today but I won't be making it official.

                                          GL all
                                          Comment
                                          • Panekkkk
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-12-09
                                            • 2430

                                            #161
                                            The only guy with good #'s against Garza hits 2 HR's off him for 2 of Boston's 3 hits so far
                                            Comment
                                            • Panekkkk
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 03-12-09
                                              • 2430

                                              #162
                                              7 hits and 4 walks and 19 LOB and only 2 runs for the Rays after 5 innings. Rays can't buy a hit with RISP but get 2 men on base every inning!
                                              Comment
                                              • Panekkkk
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 03-12-09
                                                • 2430

                                                #163
                                                Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                May 26, 2010

                                                3* Rays -155
                                                1* Rays RL
                                                Catching up on record. Haven't been any plays the last two days. Tough break with that Rays game.

                                                Home: 11-7 for -0.16 units
                                                Home RL: 0-1 -1 units
                                                Road: 4-3 for -0.25 units

                                                Parlays

                                                2-1 +1.64 units

                                                One play today
                                                Comment
                                                • Panekkkk
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-12-09
                                                  • 2430

                                                  #164
                                                  May 29, 2010

                                                  3* Giants -155
                                                  1.5* Giants RL +145
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Panekkkk
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-12-09
                                                    • 2430

                                                    #165
                                                    Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                    May 29, 2010

                                                    3* Giants -155
                                                    1.5* Giants RL +145
                                                    Home: 12-7 for +2.84 units
                                                    Home RL: 1-1 +1.175 units
                                                    Road: 4-3 for -0.25 units

                                                    Parlays

                                                    2-1 +1.64 units
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Panekkkk
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-12-09
                                                      • 2430

                                                      #166
                                                      May 30th, 2010

                                                      2* Angels -150
                                                      1* Angels -1.5 +140

                                                      Home ML: 12-7 for +2.84 units
                                                      Home RL: 1-1 +1.18 units
                                                      Road ML: 4-3 for -0.25 units
                                                      Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
                                                      Overall: +5.41 units
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Panekkkk
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-12-09
                                                        • 2430

                                                        #167
                                                        Line dropping, probably because Hunter is questionable. Don't have time to wait to see lineups so play has been booked, but I'd probably wait to see if Hunter is in.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Panekkkk
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-12-09
                                                          • 2430

                                                          #168
                                                          Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                          May 30th, 2010

                                                          2* Angels -150
                                                          1* Angels -1.5 +140
                                                          Lucky comeback.

                                                          Home ML: 13-7 for +4.84 units
                                                          Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
                                                          Road ML: 4-3 for -0.25 units
                                                          Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
                                                          Overall: +8.81 units
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Panekkkk
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 03-12-09
                                                            • 2430

                                                            #169
                                                            May 31, 2010

                                                            HOME
                                                            2* Cards -153

                                                            ROAD
                                                            1* Cubs -133
                                                            1* Rays -135 (don't like this play so may lay off)

                                                            Thinking of adding RL to the Cubs play but they've screwed me so hard this year I'm not sure what to make of it. Road teams are 10-3 against teams who have lost 3 or more games with 9 of those 10 wins cashing on the RL.

                                                            Home ML: 13-7 for +4.84 units
                                                            Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
                                                            Road ML: 4-3 for -0.25 units
                                                            Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
                                                            Overall: +8.81 units
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Panekkkk
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-12-09
                                                              • 2430

                                                              #170
                                                              Adding 0.5* Cubs RL +123
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Panekkkk
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-12-09
                                                                • 2430

                                                                #171
                                                                Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                                May 31, 2010

                                                                HOME
                                                                2* Cards -153

                                                                ROAD
                                                                1* Cubs -133
                                                                0.5* Cubs RL
                                                                1* Rays -135 (don't like this play so may lay off)

                                                                Thinking of adding RL to the Cubs play but they've screwed me so hard this year I'm not sure what to make of it. Road teams are 10-3 against teams who have lost 3 or more games with 9 of those 10 wins cashing on the RL.
                                                                Home ML: 14-7 for +6.84 units
                                                                Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
                                                                Road ML: 4-4 for -1.58 units
                                                                Road RL: 0-1 -0.5 units
                                                                Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
                                                                Overall: +8.98 units

                                                                Well, home teams continue to rip it up, now hitting at 66% since starting the thread and over 80% since April.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Panekkkk
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-12-09
                                                                  • 2430

                                                                  #172
                                                                  Cards win big for a small positive night. I seriously gotta lay off the road teams. Oh yah, and **** the Cubs. Never again.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Panekkkk
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-12-09
                                                                    • 2430

                                                                    #173
                                                                    JUNE 1ST UPDATE -- READY FOR LIFTOFF

                                                                    Okay, we're finally into June and I have enough data to play around with. It's still going to take some time analyzing the data and I'm completely avoiding road teams for now until I can figure out what's going on there. But I'll update some stats:

                                                                    Home teams ML
                                                                    38-11 (78%) since May 8th, 2010 for +22.12 units if you were to play each game for 1 unit straight no filters
                                                                    14-7 (67%) since I started posting in this thread

                                                                    Home teams RL
                                                                    30-19 (61%) for +22.68 units if you were to play each game for 1 unit straight no filters -- (that's an astounding win % when you consider ROI; I'm not sure if that makes me happy or scares me as it may be due for a correction). That means that 30 of 38 wins did not cover the RL

                                                                    Home teams opponent TT under (special thank to Holy Grail for making me think about this)
                                                                    35-2-12 for about +22.4 units if you were to play each game for 1 unit straight no filters

                                                                    I will continue to play ONLY home games from here on out. The win % is about what I had hoped (around 75%) though it's still a bit high and I expect it to drop a bit. If it stays at 70% through June and July I should clear 40 units.

                                                                    I will still vary home game units according to some additional filters (e.g., if opponent has lost 3 or more). I'm expecting big things for this moving forward! The funny thing is I could probably just play the opponent TT's under and the home team RL for maximum ROI. Gotta think the RL record will drop though so I'll stick to the ML.

                                                                    Good luck everyone.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Panekkkk
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-12-09
                                                                      • 2430

                                                                      #174
                                                                      No plays today. I hate the Cubs.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • baazigar
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-09-08
                                                                        • 1589

                                                                        #175
                                                                        cubs and the mets. hate em hate em!!
                                                                        Comment
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