Betting Favorites - Season Thread

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  • Panekkkk
    SBR MVP
    • 03-12-09
    • 2430

    #106
    Yeah I hear ya with SF. Line is actually dropping too, now at -148!

    These home teams had a ridiculous run so I'm not surprised that it's going to fall back down to earth a bit as I said in the beginning. Even after yesterday, home teams are 21-4 which is still 84%. I'm expecting 70-75% so there still room for it to drop.

    I also expect this to start doing a lot better in June and July, once the season reaches a statistical flow. This system is heavily based on lines and in the early months most lines are based on projections, not actual team play. This lets teams like Washington get undervalued and the Cubs get overvalued. I'm worried that Boston might be overvalued in this game.

    It also looks like I might add a filter that if the line moves 10 cents or more in the "right" direction = NO PLAY. It has happened 7 times that has resulted in losses and only 4 times for winners (regardless of site). That would have saved us from the Mets game yesterday. Not sure I can find a good reason behind that except that if the public is hammering a side, you usually don't want to be on the same side.
    Comment
    • Panekkkk
      SBR MVP
      • 03-12-09
      • 2430

      #107
      Yeah I wanted to take the Jays +1.5 or +2.5! Can't believe the game opened like that and then held at 7-6 for the second half of the game!
      Comment
      • Panekkkk
        SBR MVP
        • 03-12-09
        • 2430

        #108
        Both lines dropping steadily. Bos almost a no play, which makes me feel better about letting it go!
        Comment
        • Bad_Cat
          Restricted User
          • 05-07-10
          • 246

          #109
          This looks really interesting. Good Luck Panek.
          Comment
          • Panekkkk
            SBR MVP
            • 03-12-09
            • 2430

            #110
            Originally posted by Bad_Cat
            This looks really interesting. Good Luck Panek.
            Thanks Bad Cat! It's still a work in progress. Hoping to have it refined for June.
            Comment
            • Panekkkk
              SBR MVP
              • 03-12-09
              • 2430

              #111
              Both plays hovering around no-play territory. Already locked in SF but it probably won't qualify for this system. Boston definite no play.
              Comment
              • GGPLAYER
                SBR MVP
                • 03-26-09
                • 2981

                #112
                Originally posted by Panekkkk
                Both plays hovering around no-play territory. Already locked in SF but it probably won't qualify for this system. Boston definite no play.
                Wish I held off on booking that SF play. Next time I see everyone is on a team like that and NYM Monday night I'm making it a no play or betting the other team.
                Comment
                • trojanman
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 04-09-10
                  • 204

                  #113
                  been watching with interest Pane......what you like today - early card.....thx.
                  Comment
                  • Panekkkk
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-12-09
                    • 2430

                    #114
                    Originally posted by Panekkkk
                    May 11, 2010:


                    HOME:

                    2* Boston -160 NO PLAY
                    2* Giants -150

                    Really hard to back Dice-K so I might hold off on that one, but love the Giants. Lots of sharps seem to be backing them tonight so I'm locking in early.

                    10 cent or greater move = No play.
                    Turns out that the Giants play qualified and lost while Boston won! The Giants line did dip heavily but rose back up. One thing I have not really been able to track are plays that moved 10 cents or more AT ANY POINT throughout the day. Before I had filtered just using closing line.

                    One play for today:

                    BREWERS -155

                    Gotta run but have some interesting comments and notes. Remember, and I cannot stress this enough, this is a work in progress!

                    STD

                    Home: 2-3 for -5.03 units
                    Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units
                    Comment
                    • Bad_Cat
                      Restricted User
                      • 05-07-10
                      • 246

                      #115
                      Hi Panek, i decided to start my underdog and totals thread. This should be interesting with my underdog thread and your favorite thread. Good Luck.
                      Comment
                      • Panekkkk
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-12-09
                        • 2430

                        #116
                        No Braun in the lineup is really hurting the Brew Crew
                        Comment
                        • Panekkkk
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-12-09
                          • 2430

                          #117
                          Originally posted by Panekkkk
                          Turns out that the Giants play qualified and lost while Boston won! The Giants line did dip heavily but rose back up. One thing I have not really been able to track are plays that moved 10 cents or more AT ANY POINT throughout the day. Before I had filtered just using closing line.

                          One play for today:

                          BREWERS -155 :

                          Gotta run but have some interesting comments and notes. Remember, and I cannot stress this enough, this is a work in progress!
                          STD

                          Home: 2-4 for -8.19 units
                          Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units



                          Was gone for the weekend. Catching up now. System is on life support! Of course, as soon as I start posting it hits a huge losing streak. The thing is, even without any filters at all, home teams are 24-8 since the start of the season for +24 units. But, that of course can't be verified since I only started posting in May! No matter as I'll just keep chuggin' along. I suggest no one tail this until things start improving.

                          Another lesson learned from the Brewer's game: Even with the potential for lines to move against us, I will NEVER be locking in a pick until I see the lineups unless I have to. No Braun meant at least 1/4th of Brewer's run production gone. When Jim Edmonds and Jody Gerut are your 2-3 batters you're in trouble....
                          Comment
                          • Panekkkk
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-12-09
                            • 2430

                            #118
                            May 14th, 2010

                            Potential Plays:

                            HOME

                            2* Giants -142

                            Only two home teams have qualified on losing streaks of 3 or more and both won. This time we have the Giants on a losing streak of 3 vs. a team on a winning streak of 5. I also HATE Wellemeyer so I might just hold off on this one. Gonna let it sit ;P

                            Home: 2-4 for -8.19 units
                            Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units
                            Comment
                            • Panekkkk
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-12-09
                              • 2430

                              #119
                              Also have a VERY strong system trend telling me to play the Cubs ML and RL... However, Cubbies are my arch nemesis this year
                              Comment
                              • Dwell
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 03-09-10
                                • 141

                                #120
                                I've been staring at the screen for the past hour trying to convince myself that betting on the cubs is a horrible idea, and that I shouldn't do it...
                                Comment
                                • GGPLAYER
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-26-09
                                  • 2981

                                  #121
                                  Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                  Also have a VERY strong system trend telling me to play the Cubs ML and RL... However, Cubbies are my arch nemesis this year
                                  Ha...I hate this team and now I hate StL even more. Lot of people saying bet the Cubs today. Part of me wants to take them so I guess I'm sick in the head and I'll never learn.
                                  Comment
                                  • GGPLAYER
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-26-09
                                    • 2981

                                    #122
                                    3-0 Pit. I don't believe it. I jumped on Chi RL at the last second.....like I said I'll NEVER learn!
                                    Comment
                                    • Panekkkk
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-12-09
                                      • 2430

                                      #123
                                      You're not alone GG ... At least that finally sealed it. Never again
                                      Comment
                                      • Panekkkk
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-12-09
                                        • 2430

                                        #124
                                        Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                        May 14th, 2010

                                        Potential Plays:

                                        HOME

                                        2* Giants -142

                                        Only two home teams have qualified on losing streaks of 3 or more and both won. This time we have the Giants on a losing streak of 3 vs. a team on a winning streak of 5. I also HATE Wellemeyer so I might just hold off on this one. Gonna let it sit ;P

                                        Home: 3-4 for -6.19 units
                                        Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units
                                        Turning the tide. Finally.
                                        Comment
                                        • Panekkkk
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-12-09
                                          • 2430

                                          #125
                                          May 15 2010

                                          HOME

                                          2* Rockies GM 2 -149

                                          Not loving the selections lately. Can't wait for the schedules to change. Will obviously wait to see what happens with GM1 before I pull the trigger on this one. A nice 5-game winning streak would be nice!

                                          Also, hate talking this much chalk but RAYS large...

                                          Home: 3-4 for -6.19 units
                                          Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units
                                          Comment
                                          • Panekkkk
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-12-09
                                            • 2430

                                            #126
                                            Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                            May 15 2010

                                            HOME

                                            2* Rockies GM 2 -149

                                            Not loving the selections lately. Can't wait for the schedules to change. Will obviously wait to see what happens with GM1 before I pull the trigger on this one. A nice 5-game winning streak would be nice!

                                            Also, hate talking this much chalk but RAYS large...
                                            Home: 4-4 for -4.19 units
                                            Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

                                            Making ground.
                                            Comment
                                            • Panekkkk
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 03-12-09
                                              • 2430

                                              #127
                                              Couple of plays for today.

                                              May 16 2010


                                              2* Marlins -163
                                              2* Angels -155 GM1

                                              Considering Giants. Line is -165 which is right on the cutoff. Problem is both plays are teams going for sweeps. Gonna sit on it. Will play both posted games unless I state otherwise. As always, if line moves 10 cents or more = NO PLAY.

                                              STD
                                              Home: 4-4 for -4.19 units
                                              Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units
                                              Comment
                                              • Panekkkk
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 03-12-09
                                                • 2430

                                                #128
                                                Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                Couple of plays for today.

                                                May 16 2010


                                                2* Marlins -163
                                                2* Angels -155 GM1

                                                Considering Giants. Line is -165 which is right on the cutoff. Problem is both plays are teams going for sweeps. Gonna sit on it. Will play both posted games unless I state otherwise. As always, if line moves 10 cents or more = NO PLAY.
                                                STD
                                                Home: 6-4 for -0.19 units
                                                Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

                                                On a roll with 3 straight winners. Looking for one more with the Angels.
                                                Comment
                                                • Panekkkk
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-12-09
                                                  • 2430

                                                  #129
                                                  Angels get it done Didn't play the Giants but they ended up winning
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Panekkkk
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-12-09
                                                    • 2430

                                                    #130
                                                    May 17 2010

                                                    2* ATL -140
                                                    2* STL -159
                                                    2* LAD -159

                                                    Don't like going against Washington but finally starting to get back into the plus with four straight winners so I'm gonna keep things rolling. Washington has been a huge killer of the road teams so far this year and is 1-1 as an opponent of the home teams. A sweep today would be nice! As always, if line moves 10 cents or more = NO PLAY. Still refining road filters. Will have them finished come June.

                                                    STD
                                                    Home: 6-4 for -0.19 units
                                                    Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Panekkkk
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-12-09
                                                      • 2430

                                                      #131
                                                      I've identified some really simple road filter that vastly improves the road records so I"ll be testing that going forward and will probably implement it shortly. Road teams who qualify for this system who are playing against opponents on losing streaks of 3 or greater are 10-2. For home teams they are 8-1. All three home teams today are playing opponents on 3-game losing streaks which makes me want to parlay all three ML and +2.5 (risking enough units to win back the ML parlay which should be about equal $). Of the 8 home teams losing with no filters, only 2 have lost by more than 2.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Dwell
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 03-09-10
                                                        • 141

                                                        #132
                                                        Like the card, let's do this.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • killawookie
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-25-09
                                                          • 3457

                                                          #133
                                                          Any reason your staying away from RLs?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Panekkkk
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 03-12-09
                                                            • 2430

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by killawookie
                                                            Any reason your staying away from RLs?
                                                            Waiting to collect more data. Will probably start betting RL's for select games starting in June. There is definitely some units to be made there.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Panekkkk
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-12-09
                                                              • 2430

                                                              #135
                                                              The RL is actually 21-14 on home teams with no additional filters! It's also 8-1 when home teams are playing an opponent on a losing streak of 3 or more (which qualifies for all three games today). With all three plays today against opponents on big losing streaks today, it'll be interesting to see what happens Similarly, the RL is 9-3 for road teams playing opponents on big losing streaks...

                                                              Wow... This one simple filter is $...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Panekkkk
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-12-09
                                                                • 2430

                                                                #136
                                                                May 17 2010

                                                                HOME

                                                                2* ATL -140
                                                                2* STL -159
                                                                2* LAD -159

                                                                STD
                                                                Home: 6-4 for -0.19 units
                                                                Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

                                                                All plays are a go despite line movements. Adding some parlays as well:

                                                                PARLAYS

                                                                All plays, +2.5 = 1.2 units to win 1
                                                                All plays, ML = 1 unit to win 3.59 units
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Panekkkk
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-12-09
                                                                  • 2430

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Heyward GIDP with men on first and third, 1 out
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Panekkkk
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-12-09
                                                                    • 2430

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Another GIDP ... One of those games.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Panekkkk
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-12-09
                                                                      • 2430

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Every Braves batter swinging at the first pitch. Apparently they have never heard of "working the count". Pelfrey only 76 pitches through 6 innings... siiigh...
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Panekkkk
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 03-12-09
                                                                        • 2430

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Make that 3 GIDPs for the Braves. And on a 2-0 count. Baseball baffles me sometimes.
                                                                        Comment
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