Betting Favorites - Season Thread

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  • GGPLAYER
    SBR MVP
    • 03-26-09
    • 2981

    #36
    Originally posted by Panekkkk
    Orioles getting lots of men on but two double plays in 2 innings is not the way to start

    Just had the bases loaded in the 4th but NYY got out with little damage. Birds are putting a lot of guys on the pads. Still a chance. By the way go Minny!
    Comment
    • Panekkkk
      SBR MVP
      • 03-12-09
      • 2430

      #37
      Yeah, Baltimore game is done. They had a chance to get to Petite early which probably would have changed the outcome. I hit 3 big dogs earlier in the season that met the same trend as this Baltimore game so I was a little skeptical to see it hit 4 in a row! Shoulda held off :P
      Comment
      • Panekkkk
        SBR MVP
        • 03-12-09
        • 2430

        #38
        Avila HR ... Second of the game. Nailbiting time.

        All 4 Tigers runs on HR. Seriously... Close it out!
        Comment
        • Panekkkk
          SBR MVP
          • 03-12-09
          • 2430

          #39
          NICE! Game over.
          Comment
          • GGPLAYER
            SBR MVP
            • 03-26-09
            • 2981

            #40
            Originally posted by Panekkkk
            NICE! Game over.
            Man I was sweating it out there. Did you make Tex a play...I was too late and missed it.
            Comment
            • Panekkkk
              SBR MVP
              • 03-12-09
              • 2430

              #41
              Yeah I took Tex and took the under on a separate system play, but Oakland out to a 2 nothing start will make it tough for both to cash. Good thing is that if Tex loses the under might cash so I may push. Still looking to win both :P
              Comment
              • Panekkkk
                SBR MVP
                • 03-12-09
                • 2430

                #42
                YES!!! Baltimore covers!
                Comment
                • GGPLAYER
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-26-09
                  • 2981

                  #43
                  Originally posted by Panekkkk
                  YES!!! Baltimore covers!

                  yes two homers in the 9th. Tailed you on that one but did not do the ML play.
                  Comment
                  • Panekkkk
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-12-09
                    • 2430

                    #44
                    Originally posted by Panekkkk
                    May 5th

                    POTENTIAL PLAYS

                    HOME:

                    2* Twins -150
                    2* Red Sox -162


                    ROAD:

                    1* Rangers -128
                    1* Braves -145


                    Remember, if line near closing is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction = NO PLAY. Otherwise, all are a go. I'm not so confident about the Red Sox pick since it's right near the cut-point of -165. But, I can't go against the system now.

                    STD

                    Home: 0-0 for 0 units
                    Road: 2-1 for +0.47 units
                    1 down :P
                    Comment
                    • Panekkkk
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-12-09
                      • 2430

                      #45
                      Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                      yes two homers in the 9th. Tailed you on that one but did not do the ML play.
                      Nice one! They were flirting with that 2-run cushion but finally crossed it. If they could pull out the win ... Well, that's asking too much.
                      Comment
                      • Panekkkk
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-12-09
                        • 2430

                        #46
                        Don't know why they didn't pinch-hit Montanez... the guy is terrible.
                        Comment
                        • NBAStats
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 01-18-10
                          • 665

                          #47
                          Through 5 innings the Rangers have 7 baserunners to 6 for Oakland, but trail 3-0. Not a bad play by any means, just shitty results so far. For the Twins though.
                          Comment
                          • jolmscheid
                            Restricted User
                            • 02-20-10
                            • 3256

                            #48
                            Hey Panekkk...this looks really promising!
                            Comment
                            • jolmscheid
                              Restricted User
                              • 02-20-10
                              • 3256

                              #49
                              I will definitely be tailing you on your picks my man!
                              Comment
                              • jolmscheid
                                Restricted User
                                • 02-20-10
                                • 3256

                                #50
                                BTW....I was AT the Twins Game at Target Field! It was a nailbiter...I wish the weather woulda been a bit better though...Ah well
                                Comment
                                • Panekkkk
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-12-09
                                  • 2430

                                  #51
                                  Looks like the Rangers are done. I pushed with the under but I'm still questioning these road games. Hopefully Boston and Atlanta can get us a 3-1 night!
                                  Comment
                                  • Panekkkk
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-12-09
                                    • 2430

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                    Adding a PERSONAL PLAY for thread followers. This is not part of the Betting Favorites system so play at your own risk

                                    1.5* Orioles +2.5 -140
                                    0.75* Orioles ML +255


                                    This is a system play that has already cashed 3 big dogs this season (which incidentally makes it a bit less likely that this will cash today). But because it's a system play I have to play it. A little hint behind the play: Teams don't like losing 3 games in a row as large dogs in the same series.
                                    Nice comeback for the O's to add some units.
                                    Comment
                                    • Panekkkk
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-12-09
                                      • 2430

                                      #53
                                      Atlanta booked. Ortiz in the lineup causing Boston line to drop a little.
                                      Comment
                                      • NBAStats
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 01-18-10
                                        • 665

                                        #54
                                        Can market agreement price out one of your plays? For example you liked a team at -115 and the market agreed with you so much it moved to -155. Are there cases when it becomes a no play for you due to a huge price change?
                                        Comment
                                        • Panekkkk
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-12-09
                                          • 2430

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by NBAStats
                                          Can market agreement price out one of your plays? For example you liked a team at -115 and the market agreed with you so much it moved to -155. Are there cases when it becomes a no play for you due to a huge price change?
                                          No, if it moves in that direction it will not price me out. At least not for home teams. Maybe when I get some more data I'll be able to say that for sure for road teams but right now, steady as she goes.
                                          Comment
                                          • Panekkkk
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-12-09
                                            • 2430

                                            #56
                                            Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                            May 5th

                                            POTENTIAL PLAYS

                                            HOME:

                                            2* Twins -150
                                            2* Red Sox -162


                                            ROAD:

                                            1* Rangers -128
                                            1* Braves -145


                                            Remember, if line near closing is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction = NO PLAY. Otherwise, all are a go. I'm not so confident about the Red Sox pick since it's right near the cut-point of -165. But, I can't go against the system now.
                                            STD

                                            Home: 2-0 for +4.00 units
                                            Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

                                            Home teams continue their amazing streak! (21-2 since April).
                                            Comment
                                            • Collecting
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 12-02-09
                                              • 370

                                              #57
                                              Nice man, will be interested in tomorrows picks.
                                              Comment
                                              • HighVoltage
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 05-31-09
                                                • 562

                                                #58
                                                Good work, Panekkkk
                                                Comment
                                                • Panekkkk
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-12-09
                                                  • 2430

                                                  #59
                                                  3-1 on the night adding just under 4 units! On to tomorrow. At first glance, looking like 3 or so plays tomorrow, but mostly road games. Still not sure what to make of those.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • GGPLAYER
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-26-09
                                                    • 2981

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                    3-1 on the night adding just under 4 units! On to tomorrow. At first glance, looking like 3 or so plays tomorrow, but mostly road games. Still not sure what to make of those.
                                                    Great job. I missed the Bos and Atl plays. I was out and not sure if I should have locked them in before I left work. I guess that will be a call I will have to make in the future. Liking what you've come up with here and I'm looking to try it out. Been doing chase systems and things are'nt going as well as I hoped.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • quick$
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 03-15-10
                                                      • 281

                                                      #61
                                                      thanks for sharing this system. Looks promising so far (including that April record ).
                                                      Question if you don't mind. Do you play all favorites that are under -165 or do you also
                                                      cap those favorites prior to making it a play?....today there are 8 games that meet the #1 criteria so far.
                                                      GL with the season. Hope you hit/pass your goal by July.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Panekkkk
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-12-09
                                                        • 2430

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by quick$
                                                        thanks for sharing this system. Looks promising so far (including that April record ).
                                                        Question if you don't mind. Do you play all favorites that are under -165 or do you also
                                                        cap those favorites prior to making it a play?....today there are 8 games that meet the #1 criteria so far.
                                                        GL with the season. Hope you hit/pass your goal by July.
                                                        Thanks quick,

                                                        The "core" of the system caps picks between -120 and -165. I'm now gathering lots of additional data to see if I can add additional filters to improve the record. So to answer your question, I don't just play all favs under -165. Usually of all the favs in that range the system picks about 1/4.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Panekkkk
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-12-09
                                                          • 2430

                                                          #63
                                                          2 games meeting the system so far: Braves and Cubs... However, I have not yet listed these as potential plays. Cubs line is moving heavily -155 when I capped it up to -163 now.

                                                          What do you guys think? Both are road teams and I'm still not sold on my road team filters. Pouring over the data to see where the better edge comes up. I have to think that the Cubs win today but I HATE laying on them. Washington is also pretty damn unpredictable even despite the pitching matchup. What works in our favour though is the fact that Washington threw all their bullpen aces out last night so I'm thinking that with the starting pitching matchup, if Hudson goes deep, Atlanta wins.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Panekkkk
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 03-12-09
                                                            • 2430

                                                            #64
                                                            Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                                            Great job. I missed the Bos and Atl plays. I was out and not sure if I should have locked them in before I left work. I guess that will be a call I will have to make in the future. Liking what you've come up with here and I'm looking to try it out. Been doing chase systems and things are'nt going as well as I hoped.
                                                            Chase systems are a tricky beast! Tried some in hockey and got killed with the juice on the +1.5 PL. Sticking to nice granny-style conservative plays now . Finally made back my hockey losses.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • GGPLAYER
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-26-09
                                                              • 2981

                                                              #65
                                                              Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                              2 games meeting the system so far: Braves and Cubs... However, I have not yet listed these as potential plays. Cubs line is moving heavily -155 when I capped it up to -163 now.

                                                              What do you guys think? Both are road teams and I'm still not sold on my road team filters. Pouring over the data to see where the better edge comes up. I have to think that the Cubs win today but I HATE laying on them. Washington is also pretty damn unpredictable even despite the pitching matchup. What works in our favour though is the fact that Washington threw all their bullpen aces out last night so I'm thinking that with the starting pitching matchup, if Hudson goes deep, Atlanta wins.
                                                              Interesting you have the Cubs because that was going to be a guess of mine for your plays today. I am already on them and locked it in at -150. I am pot committed to that series since I am doing a 3 game chase. Chi offense has been terrible but their pitcher today is the best they have and Chi has to break out of this mini-slump. I also HATE laying anything on the Cubs since they are big disappoint thus far and seem to under peform a lot. Atl looks interesting. Wash is not Wash of old but I like your angle of a used up Wash pen. Tough one to call. I might just stay away from that one and wait till you get some more home plays and/or some different road teams. I'll be honest I'm pretty gun shy to bet anything anymore after the last two weeks I have had. Good luck
                                                              Comment
                                                              • GGPLAYER
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-26-09
                                                                • 2981

                                                                #66
                                                                Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                                Chase systems are a tricky beast! Tried some in hockey and got killed with the juice on the +1.5 PL. Sticking to nice granny-style conservative plays now . Finally made back my hockey losses.
                                                                If Chi loses today or even if they win I think I'm going to revert back to my conservative ways. I chased in the NBA but I did not have to lay the chalk I do in baseball and it's not worth losing 10-15 units to win 1.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • GGPLAYER
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-26-09
                                                                  • 2981

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                                  2 games meeting the system so far: Braves and Cubs... However, I have not yet listed these as potential plays. Cubs line is moving heavily -155 when I capped it up to -163 now.

                                                                  What do you guys think? Both are road teams and I'm still not sold on my road team filters. Pouring over the data to see where the better edge comes up. I have to think that the Cubs win today but I HATE laying on them. Washington is also pretty damn unpredictable even despite the pitching matchup. What works in our favour though is the fact that Washington threw all their bullpen aces out last night so I'm thinking that with the starting pitching matchup, if Hudson goes deep, Atlanta wins.
                                                                  Do you take the opening line of the day or the opening line? Example on Pinny the Cubs are listed as opening at -140 but that was on 5/5. The first line for today (5/6) was -144. That can make a big difference in how to watch the 10 cents move rule. I have noticed in other games where the line dropped the "wrong" way and that team has lost. Makes me nervous becasue I already bet Min but line has dropped from -232 down to -205. I know you don't look at games opening over -165 so should I not be as concerned about games over -200?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Panekkkk
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-12-09
                                                                    • 2430

                                                                    #68
                                                                    I take the line at the time when I cap the play. The "core" of the system depends heavily on lines so if they move out of range before I cap then it's a no go. I find the best time to do this right in the morning (10 am) before the public starts hammering plays. That's just how it's worked for this system so I'm not going to second guess it now :P. Wish I could say more

                                                                    Cubs line is moving STEEP!!! Another filter might eliminate the ATL play so I might just play the cubs but the price is getting out of control.

                                                                    If you're tailing, I'd say you can't go wrong with the home games. With that said, the run is a bit ridiculous at 21-2 so I'm scared it's going to move towards a correction!!!

                                                                    Let's hope it sticks
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Collecting
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 12-02-09
                                                                      • 370

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Just the two away games today eh? BOL man, looks like its doin great for ya!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Panekkkk
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 03-12-09
                                                                        • 2430

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Originally posted by Collecting
                                                                        Just the two away games today eh? BOL man, looks like its doin great for ya!
                                                                        Still letting these games marinate. Not sure if I will make them potential plays yet or continue to accrue more data on the road teams. I have some other potential filters in mind but we'll see how they play out.
                                                                        Comment
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