MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

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  • FUqer
    SBR MVP
    • 01-22-15
    • 3968

    #316
    Originally posted by OlDirtyBaztid
    i'm wth you on both those plays.only thing that gets me nervous about the dbacks, aside from dodgers being one of the best teams in baseball, is the public % on favoring them.
    i post on covers. the amount of negativity on this site is unreal so i just avoid it.
    haha, you only get trolls when your winning, so I don't get them here. I would welcome them in here, it would mean I'm doing good. I've dealt with them on another forum I've been posting at for a few years, but I usually just ignore them and they go away.

    I think Robbie Ray was getting a lot of attention in the media today for making the all star team so the public was eating it up. He'll have to be on his A game cuz they can't score vs lefties.
    Comment
    • FUqer
      SBR MVP
      • 01-22-15
      • 3968

      #317
      Thursday Results 7/6

      L - »-Red Sox FF -½ -115

      L - »-D-Backs +130
      W - »-Athletics +145

      L - »-Braves/Nationals Over 9 -113

      ___________________________
      Yesterday = 1-3 = -1.83
      ___________________________
      Bankroll = 2143 / 3000
      ___________________________
      Freaking D-Backs blowing a 4-1 lead in the bottom of the 9th ruined a winning day for me, still can't escape those bad beats. That's what I get for playing on a public dog. I should of never went against the SDQL for that game anyway, regardless of the bad beat, it was a mistake.

      I backed Faria every time he started so far but for some reason went against him today. I try to pick my spots with those square picks but failed today. I thought the same thing might happen to him that happened to Newcomb the other day, but they are two different types of pitchers, one a power pitcher and one a spot pitcher, the young power pitches might be the ones to watch about fading going deeper into the season.

      Hopefully the pubic doesn't like the Marlins and Cardinals too much for tomorrow.
      Comment
      • FUqer
        SBR MVP
        • 01-22-15
        • 3968

        #318
        Originally posted by FUqer
        Friday Plays 7/7

        »-Cardinals -113
        »-Marlins -108

        »-Braves/Nationals Over 8 -108
        »-Marlins/Giants Over 8 -113

        »-Padres/Phillies Under 9 -113
        »-D-Backs/Reds Under 9 -103
        »-Athletics/Mariners Over 8 +105
        ________________________________
        I added 3 total plays. I like the Over in the Yankees game but I may go Yankees TT Over. I also like the Orioles and Padres but they seem too popular right now, I'm gonna see how those play out.

        The Cubs lines are still inflated, the Over is on my radar, depending on the # when released.

        The Yankees line seems high at first glance but Guerra's sabermetrics are pretty bad. The Brewers going against a lefty for the 3rd str8 game, winning the first two. They would be a play if I liked their pitcher a little more. Instead I like the Yankees RL.
        Comment
        • FUqer
          SBR MVP
          • 01-22-15
          • 3968

          #319
          SDQL 7/7

          ALL = Yesterday 7-1 (Total 421-341)
          SU = Yesterday 4-0 (Total 215-164)
          OU = Yesterday 3-1 (Total 206-177)
          ---------------------------------

          SU

          PLAY: The Cubs are 29-1 SU since Jul 27, 2015 as a home 140+ favorite off a game as a favorite in which they had 6 or fewer hits.

          team=Cubs and HF and p:F and line <=-140 and p:hits<=6 and date>=20150727



          PLAY: The Yankees are 20-0 SU & 17-3 RL as a 140+ home favorite in the first game of a series after scoring 6+ runs.

          team = Yankees and line<=-140 and HF and p:runs>=6 and FGS and date >= 20120430



          PLAY: The Rockies are 15-1 SU since June 28th, 2013 as a favorite after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base.

          team = Rockies and F and p:TLOB < 5 and p:L and date >= 20130628



          PLAY: The Rays (996-596 +11.8% ROI, 10-2 L12)

          H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



          FADE: The Tigers are 0-15 SU in the first game of a series as a dog of more than 130 off a game as a favorite in which they drew four-plus walks and they are facing a starter with an ERA higher than two.

          team = Tigers and FGS and line>130 and p:F and p:walks>=4 and o:STDSERA>2



          PLAY: The Indians (538-377 +9.8% ROI)

          (p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)



          PLAY: The Orioles (82-48 +13.4% ROI)

          A and -110>line>-165 and conference=o:conference and 5.7>=STDSERA>=5.2 and conference=AL



          PLAY: The Blue Jays are 15-0 RL as a home dog off a game as a dog after they had 12-plus hits.

          team = Blue Jays and H and D and p and 12 <= p:hits and date >= 20080824



          ------------

          OU

          UNDER: Marlins/Giants and Padres/Phillies (462-230-36 +25.7% ROI)

          season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)



          OVER: The Marlins are 15-0 OU as a road favorite in the first game of a series when they won the last two games their starter started.

          team = Marlins and FGS and A and F and s:W and ss:W and date >= 20050613



          OVER: The Royals are 10-0 OU in the first game of a series as a dog off a road game in which they scored first, trailed and won.

          team = Royals and FGS and D and p:A and p:W and p:SF>0 and po:BL > 0 and date >= 20040923



          OVER: Both teams off rest this season. (63-37-6 +19.3% ROI)
          (Angels/Rangers)

          H and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and season=2017



          OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 142-102-10 OU +11.0% ROI this season.
          (Mets, Marlins, Athletics, Red Sox)

          A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



          OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (154-109-18 +11.2% ROI)
          (Athletics, Astros, Cubs, Mariners, White Sox)

          date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O



          ________________

          SU

          Cubs
          Yankees
          Rockies
          Rays
          Indians
          Orioles

          OU

          Marlins/Giants Over
          Padres/Phillies Under
          Royals/Dodgers Over
          Angels/Rangers Over
          Mets/Cardinals Over
          Athletics/Mariners Over
          Astros/Blue Jays Over
          Pirates/Cubs Over
          White Sox/Rockies Over
          ___________________________________

          If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html
          Comment
          • FUqer
            SBR MVP
            • 01-22-15
            • 3968

            #320
            Originally posted by FUqer
            Friday Plays 7/7

            »-Cardinals -113
            »-Marlins -108
            »-Padres +106
            »-Rays +128
            »-Orioles -124
            »-Yankees -1.5 -118

            »-Braves/Nationals Over 8 -108
            »-Marlins/Giants Over 8 -113

            »-Padres/Phillies Under 9 -113
            »-D-Backs/Reds Under 9 -103
            »-Athletics/Mariners Over 8 +105
            »-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -108
            ________________________________
            Additions.
            Comment
            • FUqer
              SBR MVP
              • 01-22-15
              • 3968

              #321
              Parlay: Risking 69 cents to win 1 unit

              D-Backs
              Indians
              Nationals

              Braves o3 -115
              Athletics o3½ -115

              Angels/Rangers Over 10
              Mets/Cardinals Over 7.5
              White Sox/Rockies Over 11.5
              Last edited by FUqer; 07-07-17, 05:38 PM.
              Comment
              • FUqer
                SBR MVP
                • 01-22-15
                • 3968

                #322
                Friday Results 7/7

                L - »-Cardinals -113
                W - »-Marlins -108
                W - »-Padres +106
                L - »-Rays +128
                L - »-Orioles -124

                L - »-Yankees -1.5 -118

                W - »-Braves/Nationals Over 8 -108
                L - »-Marlins/Giants Over 8 -113
                W - »-Padres/Phillies Under 9 -113
                P - »-D-Backs/Reds Under 9 -103
                W - »-Athletics/Mariners Over 8 +105
                W - »-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -108
                ___________________________
                Yesterday = 6-5-1 = +0.43
                ___________________________
                Bankroll = 2165 / 3000
                ___________________________

                It was a winning day but I feel pretty disappointed in some of my side play decisions and of course had a couple of bad beats when playing on popular public plays. I dunno why I didn't play the Yankees Over after I was on it all day and it dropped to a playable price.

                No problem with the Cardinals decision.
                Marlins were my play of the week.
                Glad the Padres public love dropped to playable and the delay didn't mess them up too much.

                The Rays were based strictly on one of my favorite large sampled SDQL trends that's been hot lately, but I was able to resist it until the last hour. It was a dumb mistake. The Rays lineup isn't built to go vs lefties and Pomeranz was the better pitcher, I was hoping the Red Sox was going to go into easy mode before the all-star break after their 6 game streak ended, but I should give any weight to such baseless gut feelings. They still had plenty of opportunities to be in that game but couldn't get the job done.

                The Orioles was up 6-0 after 3 innings and of course blew it. It was the worst decision of the night for me. I posted early last night that the Twins were one of my 3 early side leans, then I thought Gausman was due for a good game and didn't like the Twins pitcher, but I posted this morning about how I didn't like how the public liked the Padres and them as much as they did, and I wanted to wait, I prefer under 60%. The Padres fell, the Orioles didn't, but for some stupid reason I played them both. Dee Dee Dee!

                I have no idea why I even try to play the Yankees, that in itself was stupid.

                Total plays went good again with my only loss being in the Marlins/Giants game where the Marlins got 4 in the top of the 1st and the Under still hits. This was one of my earliest plays and if I had waited until I did my SDQL for the night and saw that Under trend on them, the same one I played on for the Padres/Phillies Under, there would be no way I would of played the Over.

                I got a bad beat push in the D-Backs game, 6-0 in the 9th and the Reds just happen to get 3 across. I'll live with that one since I got lucky with the Over in the Nationals game, but I think I'm owed some of those anyway.

                Like I said, it wasn't a bad night, but could of been so much better if not for some stupid mistakes and bad breaks.
                Comment
                • FUqer
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-22-15
                  • 3968

                  #323
                  Originally posted by FUqer
                  Parlay: Risking 69 cents to win 1 unit

                  D-Backs
                  Indians
                  Nationals

                  Braves o3 -115
                  Athletics o3½ -115

                  Angels/Rangers Over 10
                  Mets/Cardinals Over 7.5
                  White Sox/Rockies Over 11.5
                  Missed it by one. I wish I would played 20 plays tonight, would of been a good night.
                  Comment
                  • FUqer
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-22-15
                    • 3968

                    #324
                    Blue Jays, Mets, White Sox, Reds/D-Backs Under are my early leans for tomorrow.
                    Comment
                    • FUqer
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-22-15
                      • 3968

                      #325
                      Saturday Plays 7/8

                      »-Padres/Phillies Under 8 -108
                      »-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 +107
                      »-Braves/Nationals Over 9 +105
                      »-Athletics/Mariners Over 10 +101
                      »-Reds/D-Backs Under 9.5 -108
                      »-Royals/Dodgers Under 9 -108
                      ___________________________

                      I'm not really feeling too many side plays, at least any that are playable aside from maybe the Blue Jays.
                      Comment
                      • FUqer
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-22-15
                        • 3968

                        #326
                        SDQL 7/8

                        ALL = Yesterday 9-6 (Total 430-347)
                        SU = Yesterday 3-3 (Total 218-167)
                        OU = Yesterday 6-3 (Total 212-180)
                        ---------------------------------

                        SU

                        PLAY: The Rangers (78-29 +29.7% ROI, 13-3 L16)

                        H and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and season > 2008 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and rest = 0



                        PLAY: The Rangers (49-18 +19.2% ROI, 6-0 L6)

                        HF and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and (SG=2 or SG=3) and conference = AL



                        PLAY: The Indians and Rockies (104-65 +10.1% ROI)

                        HF and line<-130 and line>-160 and p:margin>7 and p:margin<10



                        FADE: The White Sox (427-563 -12.6% ROI)

                        p:margin=-8



                        PLAY: The Twins (996-597 +11.7% ROI, 10-3 L13)

                        H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



                        PLAY: The Astros (537-377 +9.8% ROI)

                        (p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)



                        PLAY: Teams are 30-7 SU the last two seasons as a Home Favorite on Saturday when they lost the previous game at Home as a dog.
                        (Rays)

                        p:HL and p and HF and day=Saturday and season>=2016



                        PLAY: The Cardinals are 15-1 SU since Sept 13, 2013 when Adam Wainwright starts at home when his last start was at home.

                        team=Cardinals and starter= Adam Wainwright and H and s:H and date>=20130913



                        ------------

                        OU

                        UNDER: Padres/Phillies (461-230-36 +25.8% ROI, 12-2 L14)

                        season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)



                        UNDER: Royals/Dodgers (387-219-30 +21.0% ROI, 12-5 L17)

                        H and month > 5 and season>2009 and 1.2 > tA(BPRA) > .6 and 8>(s:SRA-os:SRA)>-4 and (p:hits + os:walks)<15 and month!=8 and s:SRA<6 and os:SRA<5 and 30.7>(p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP)>18.7 and (op:SIP + opp:SIP + oppp:SIP + opppp:SIP)>19.4 and total>6.4 and pu margin>-6.6 and streak<5 and o:streak<6 and -8 < ou streak<4 and os:SPT<123 and team!=Twins and team!=Red Sox and o:team!=Indians and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO + ssss:SSO)>9 and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO)<26 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO +osssss:SSO)>13 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO)<31



                        OVER: Braves/Nationals 19-5 OU L24 meetings

                        team=Braves and o:team=Nationals and date>=20160414



                        OVER: The Braves are 19-5 OU off a loss as a dog in which they held the lead.

                        team = Braves and p and p:BL > 0 and p:L and date >= 20160803



                        UNDER: The Red Sox are 2-16 OU since Apr 17, 2016 as a dog after they hit more home runs than their opponent last game.

                        team=Red Sox and D and p:HR > po:HR and date>=20160417



                        OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 145-103-10 OU +11.5% ROI this season.
                        (Astros, Pirates)

                        A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



                        OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (158-110-18 +12.0% ROI)
                        (Athletics, Astros, Mariners, White Sox)

                        date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

                        ________________

                        SU

                        Rangers
                        Indians
                        Rockies
                        Twins
                        Astros
                        Rays
                        Cardinals

                        OU

                        Padres/Phillies Under
                        Royals/Dodgers Under
                        Braves/Nationals Over
                        Red Sox/Rays Under
                        Astros/Blue Jays Over
                        Pirates/Cubs Over
                        Athletics/Mariners Over
                        White Sox/Rockies Over
                        ___________________________________


                        If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html
                        Comment
                        • FUqer
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-22-15
                          • 3968

                          #327
                          Teheran 1-8 L9 team starts vs Nationals, Over is 5-0 L5 and 9-2 L11.
                          Strasburg is 3-7 his last 10 team starts at Home vs the Braves, Over is 7-1 L8.Over is 19-5 L24 in the series.

                          Padres giving up 6.1 rpg when Chacin starts on the Road this season.
                          Nola has been dominating his last 3 starts, team gave up a total of 3 runs in those 3 games, while scoring 17.

                          Mets have gone Over the total in 6 of Zack Wheeler's last 8 starts.
                          Adam Wainwright has lost his last 3 team starts at Home vs the Mets.
                          Cardinals 10-4 the last 14 times Wainwright has started.

                          The Pirates have went Under the total in Ivan Nova's last 5 starts, 2-5 SU L7 in his L7 starts on the Road.
                          The Cubs are 9-2 OU L11 when Arrieta starts at Home.
                          The Cubs are 6-2 SU vs the Pirates when Arrieta starts at Home, giving up 2.88 rpg, and 13-5 SU overall vs the Pirates when he starts giving up 3.06 rpg.

                          The Giants are 6-2 SU vs the Marlins when Jeff Samardzija starts, Over is 5-2. 4-0 SU at Home, 3-0 RL at Home.

                          The D-Backs are 10-3 when Taijuan Walker starts for them, winning their last 5.

                          I like Luis Castillo who held is own in his first start at Colorado in his last start and has faced strong hitting teams in all 3 of his starts, two of which were on the Road.

                          The Astros are 9-2 L11 Road starts by Mike Fiers.
                          The Blue Jays are 8-3 L11 starts by Marcus Stroman and 5-1 in his L6 starts at Home.

                          The Red Sox are 0-2 vs the Rays this season when Rick Porcello starts, the Over is 4-0 L4 and 6-2 L8 when he starts vs the Rays.
                          The Over is 3-0 L3 times Cobb started vs the Red Sox and 6-1 L7.
                          Red Sox 6-3 vs Rays when Porcello starts on the Road.
                          Rays 1-5 vs Red Sox when Cobb starts at Home.

                          The Tigers are 0-5 L5 times Justin Verlander started on the Road and 1-7 L8, Over is 6-2 L8.
                          The Tigers are 2-9 L11 vs the Indians when Verlander starts, 0-5 L5 on the Road.
                          The Indians have lost the last 4 at Home when Mike Clevinger has started, Under 6-1 L7.
                          Comment
                          • FUqer
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-22-15
                            • 3968

                            #328
                            On the road right now had to get a pic of this.

                            Comment
                            • FUqer
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-22-15
                              • 3968

                              #329
                              Originally posted by FUqer

                              Saturday Results 7/8

                              »-Padres/Phillies Under 8 -108
                              »-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 +107
                              »-Braves/Nationals Over 9 +105
                              »-Athletics/Mariners Over 10 +101
                              »-Reds/D-Backs Under 9.5 -108
                              »-Royals/Dodgers Under 9 -108
                              ___________________________
                              ___________________________
                              Yesterday = 3-2-1 = +1.05
                              ___________________________
                              Bankroll = 2217 / 3000
                              ___________________________

                              Not a bad night, it would of been better if not for a late score by the Dodgers to force a push and if I would played those sides I liked, but I decided to take the day off from sides. I'm getting that same kind of feeling today about sides, there doesn't seem to be many sides that I like that are playable.
                              Comment
                              • FUqer
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-22-15
                                • 3968

                                #330
                                SDQL 7/9

                                ALL = Yesterday 7-7-1 (Total 437-344)
                                SU = Yesterday 4-3 (Total 222-170)
                                OU = Yesterday 3-4-1 (Total 215-184)
                                ---------------------------------

                                SU

                                PLAY: The Cubs are 12-0 SU since Jun 14, 2015 when Jon Lester starts as a home 140+ favorite when they lost in his last start.

                                team=Cubs and starter=Jon Lester and H and line<=-140 and s:L and date>=20150614



                                PLAY: The Pirates are 18-0 RL as a 140-plus dog off a road game when they won the last two games their starter started.

                                team = Pirates and 140 <= line and p:A and s:W and ss:W and date >= 20120519



                                ------------

                                OU

                                UNDER: The Cardinals are 0-13 OU in franchise history when Lance Lynn starts at home in July.

                                team = Cardinals and starter = Lance Lynn and H and month = 7



                                OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 145-105-10 OU +11.5% ROI this season.
                                (Astros, Royals, Marlins, Tigers, Braves, Brewers)

                                A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



                                OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (158-110-18 +12.0% ROI)
                                (None Today?)

                                date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O



                                ________________

                                SU

                                Cubs

                                Marlins
                                OU

                                Mets/Cardinals Under
                                Astros/Blue Jays Over
                                Royals/Dodgers Over
                                Tigers/Indians Over
                                Braves/Nationals Over
                                Brewers/Yankees Over
                                ___________________________________

                                If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

                                ________________________________________ ___________________________

                                Database has not updated yet for some reason, making it impossible for me to check my SDQL, not sure if I'll have time to go through it later or not.
                                Last edited by FUqer; 07-09-17, 10:39 AM. Reason: Added Marlins, Removed Marlins Over
                                Comment
                                • FUqer
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-22-15
                                  • 3968

                                  #331
                                  I do like a bunch of sides, just not sure if enough to pull the trigger, cuz most are personal picks.

                                  Braves - I like Newcomb but these power pitchers start strong and fade quick and he got rocked last game vs a big league lineup, although the Nats aren't hitting too well right now.

                                  Padres - Not one that I like a lot, I just think they have the momentum and Eickhoff finds it hard to win games.

                                  Mets - I've always been high on Matz and low on Cardinals vs lefties with advantage to LHP in that stadium, and Lynn hasn't been sharp at Home.

                                  Tigers - Tigers usually hit Kluber pretty good and Fulmer is one of my favorite pitchers and the price is attractive, I've just had no luck with bigger dogs this season.

                                  Brewers - Nelson has quietly been pitching pretty good and Tanaka has been lit up at times this season. I wonder how the Brewers will do after facing 3 str8 lefties.

                                  White Sox - They have to always be considered against Lefties and Freeland seems like he is fading a bit. The White Sox have gave me problems this season though.
                                  Comment
                                  • SAX27
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 07-03-15
                                    • 1324

                                    #332
                                    Nice call on the Pads/Phils under yesterday!
                                    Comment
                                    • FUqer
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-22-15
                                      • 3968

                                      #333
                                      Cardinals 12-5 at Home in day games, Under 6-2 L8.

                                      Nationals 1-3 at Home vs lefties in day games, Under 4-0.
                                      Braves 5-0 L5 Road day games.

                                      Red Sox 5-0 on the Road vs Division in day games.
                                      Rays lost last 3 Home Division day games, Over is 6-0 L6 day games, 11-5 overall.

                                      Yankees lost last 4 Home day games, Over is 9-4 overall in Yankees day Home games.
                                      Brewers 7-2 L9 day games.

                                      White Sox 6-11 on the Road during the day, 2-7 L9, 2-1 vs lefties.
                                      Rockies 10-6 in Home day games, lost the last 2.


                                      The Over is 11-2-3 in Sunday Night games this season.
                                      Comment
                                      • FUqer
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-22-15
                                        • 3968

                                        #334
                                        Sunday Plays 7/9

                                        »-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -103
                                        »-Mets/Cardinals Over 9 -108
                                        »-Red Sox/Rays Over 8 +102
                                        »-Orioles/Twins Under 10.5 -108
                                        »-Athletics/Mariners Over 9.5 +102
                                        »-Tigers/Indians Over 8 -108
                                        ___________________________
                                        Comment
                                        • SAX27
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 07-03-15
                                          • 1324

                                          #335
                                          Go get 'em....think its going to be wild one in Minnesota w/Jimenez & Gibson on the mound.

                                          Thoughts on Padres/Phillies under?
                                          Comment
                                          • FUqer
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-22-15
                                            • 3968

                                            #336
                                            Originally posted by SAX27
                                            Go get 'em....think its going to be wild one in Minnesota w/Jimenez & Gibson on the mound.

                                            Thoughts on Padres/Phillies under?
                                            That's some of the reason I'm playing the Under in the Twins game, everyone believes it will be high scoring, but both teams can shit the bed on offense too, I get 9.8 for that game, but yea Jimenez has been scary.

                                            For the Padres/Phillies I get 8.0 and normally it would of been a play but it applies to an Over system at 9, if becomes playable at 8.5 I may reconsider the Under. I know some of it doesn't seem to make sense, but it's been working for me.

                                            It's a little risky for 5 over plays on a Sunday but yesterday had a lot of Unders.
                                            Comment
                                            • FUqer
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-22-15
                                              • 3968

                                              #337
                                              Originally posted by FUqer
                                              Sunday Plays 7/9

                                              »-Padres +101
                                              »-Brewers +146
                                              »-White Sox +107

                                              »-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -103
                                              »-Mets/Cardinals Over 9 -108
                                              »-Red Sox/Rays Over 8 +102
                                              »-Orioles/Twins Under 10.5 -108
                                              »-Athletics/Mariners Over 9.5 +102
                                              »-Tigers/Indians Over 8 -108
                                              »-White Sox/Rockies Over 12 -105
                                              ___________________________
                                              Added 3 sides and 1 more total, I considered the White Sox -2 +196 briefly.
                                              Comment
                                              • FUqer
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-22-15
                                                • 3968

                                                #338
                                                A few SDQL additions now that the database is working.

                                                FADE: The Giants (122-229 -29.2% ROI, but 11-1 L12.)

                                                (so:R1 = 3 or so:R1 = 4) and SG != 2 and 5 > SGS > 1 and s:SRA < 10 and 3 < s:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and 6 > s:SSO > 1 and starter rest < 17 and s:SPT > 56 and os:SRA < 8 and s:SHRA < 4 and os:SHRA < 2 and os:SPT > 69 and o:starter rest < 18 and p:hits < 12 and 0 < ss:SSO < 12 and ss:SPT > 66 and -8 < os:margin < 6 and tA(hits,N=10) > 6.8 and oA(LOB, N=10) < 18.5 and 1.4 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.8 and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.7



                                                PLAY: The Cubs (996-598 +11.7% ROI)

                                                H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



                                                --------------------------------

                                                UNDER: Marlins/Giants (462-230-36 +25.9%)

                                                season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)



                                                UNDER: Royals/Dodgers (76-47-11 +17.9% ROI)

                                                H and total<=7 and 9 * tS(o:earned runs - starter earned runs) / tS(9 - starter innings pitched) <= 3.75 and tA(walks)>=4 and 2010<=season and SG<4



                                                OVER: Royals/Dodgers (57-39-7 +12.7% ROI)

                                                H and total<=7 and day=Sunday and STDSWHIP<=1.05 and conference=NL and SG>2
                                                Comment
                                                • FUqer
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-22-15
                                                  • 3968

                                                  #339
                                                  Originally posted by FUqer
                                                  Sunday Plays 7/9

                                                  »-Padres +101
                                                  »-Brewers +146
                                                  »-White Sox +107

                                                  »-Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 -103
                                                  »-Mets/Cardinals Over 9 -108
                                                  »-Red Sox/Rays Over 8 +102
                                                  »-Orioles/Twins Under 10.5 -108
                                                  »-Athletics/Mariners Over 9.5 +102
                                                  »-Tigers/Indians Over 8 -108
                                                  »-White Sox/Rockies Over 12 -105
                                                  »-Marlins/Giants Under 8 +102
                                                  ___________________________
                                                  Added Marlin/Giants Under based on the SDQL trend that's been red hot recently and great long term.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • FUqer
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-22-15
                                                    • 3968

                                                    #340
                                                    I'm out for the day, may be back in time to take a look at the Tigers again for tonight. GL today!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • FUqer
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-22-15
                                                      • 3968

                                                      #341
                                                      Friday Projections

                                                      CHC@bal (-117 53.9%) (8.4)
                                                      STL@pit (-122 54.9%) (8.3)
                                                      tor@DET (-117 54.0%) (9.3)
                                                      col@NYM (-114 53.2%) (7.2)
                                                      LAD@mia (-137 57.9%) (7.4)
                                                      ARI@atl (-130 56.6%) (8.7)
                                                      phi@MIL (-155 60.8%) (10.2)
                                                      min@HOU (-151 60.1%) (7.6)
                                                      CLE@oak (-140 58.3%) (7.1)
                                                      SF@sd (-111 52.5%) (8.3)
                                                      _________________________

                                                      I made some significant changes, updates and additions to my model during the break.

                                                      Model has the Cardinals favored, small advantage in pitching for the Pirates but I get over 4% advantage on offense for the Cardinals and that's increased by PNC park being friendlier for lefty hitters, where the Cardinals are ranked top ten and the Pirates bottom 5.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • FUqer
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-22-15
                                                        • 3968

                                                        #342
                                                        Leake has a WHIP below 1.00 on the Road this season at 0.94.
                                                        Leake 5-11 in PIT. OU 6-10
                                                        Leake 3-6 vs Division this season.
                                                        Cardinals OU 18-11 on the Road vs Righties this season.

                                                        Cole has given up 13 HR's to lefties this season, compared to 8 combined the previous 2 seasons.
                                                        Lefties are batting .291 off Cole this year and .329 last season.
                                                        Cole 4-1 in PIT. OU 4-1
                                                        Cole OU 5-13 this season, OU 1-6 vs Division.
                                                        Pirates 0-6-1 OU L7 games, OU 5-16-1 L22 vs righties.
                                                        Pirates 2-6 SU L8 at Home vs Righties, OU 2-6.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • FUqer
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-22-15
                                                          • 3968

                                                          #343
                                                          Some predictions and power rankings. The Indians are higher than others might have them, but I think they are in good shape in their division and the way they went into Houston and handled them left an impression on me.

                                                          The Cubs should make a run a run but they got a lot work to do and haven't shown many positive signs and the Dodgers and Nationals are looking good in the NL this year.

                                                          There was a few tough calls for me, I thought that each group of 5 was easy, but the order of those 5 was tough.

                                                          American League

                                                          EAST

                                                          02 - Red Sox
                                                          05 - Yankees
                                                          06 - Rays
                                                          08 - Blue Jays
                                                          11 - Orioles
                                                          ___________

                                                          CENTRAL

                                                          01 - Indians
                                                          07 - Royals
                                                          10 - Tigers
                                                          12 - Twins
                                                          14 - White Sox
                                                          ____________

                                                          WEST

                                                          03 - Astros
                                                          04 - Rangers
                                                          09 - Mariners
                                                          13 - Angels
                                                          15 - Athletics

                                                          ___________________________

                                                          National League

                                                          EAST

                                                          02 - Nationals
                                                          08 - Mets
                                                          10 - Marlins
                                                          11 - Braves
                                                          15 - Phillies
                                                          _____________

                                                          CENTRAL

                                                          03 - Cubs
                                                          06 - Brewers
                                                          07 - Cardinals
                                                          09 - Pirates
                                                          13 - Reds
                                                          _____________

                                                          WEST

                                                          01 - Dodgers
                                                          04 - D-Backs
                                                          05 - Rockies
                                                          12 - Giants
                                                          14 - Padres


                                                          ___________________________

                                                          OVERALL

                                                          01 - Dodgers
                                                          02 - Indians
                                                          03 - Red Sox
                                                          04 - Nationals
                                                          05 - Astros
                                                          06 - Cubs
                                                          07 - D-Backs
                                                          08 - Rangers
                                                          09 - Rockies
                                                          10 - Yankees
                                                          11 - Brewers
                                                          12 - Rays
                                                          13 - Cardinals
                                                          14 - Royals
                                                          15 - Mets
                                                          16 - Blue Jays
                                                          17 - Mariners
                                                          18 - Pirates
                                                          19 - Tigers
                                                          20 - Marlins
                                                          21 - Braves
                                                          22 - Orioles
                                                          23 - Giants
                                                          24 - Twins
                                                          25 - Angels
                                                          26 - White Sox
                                                          27 - Athletics
                                                          28 - Reds
                                                          29 - Padres
                                                          30 - Phillies
                                                          Comment
                                                          • FUqer
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-22-15
                                                            • 3968

                                                            #344
                                                            Pay $10 for some razors and get MLB TV for free. Must read and follow instructions in the link.

                                                            Since 1999, we've paid our members over $3.6 Billion in Cash Back. Join now for an extra 10% Cash Back boost. Shop 3,500+ stores using coupons or cash back!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • FUqer
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-22-15
                                                              • 3968

                                                              #345
                                                              Early Leans

                                                              Based on model only.


                                                              Rays -108 (-154) at Angels
                                                              D-Backs -113 (-130) at Braves
                                                              Rangers +115 (+101) at Royals
                                                              Rockies +135 (+114) at Mets
                                                              Cardinals +106 (-122) at Pirates
                                                              White Sox +154 (+111) vs Mariners

                                                              ----

                                                              Cubs/Orioles Under 10 (8.4)
                                                              Twins/Astros Under 9 (7.6)
                                                              Mariners/White Sox Under 9.5 (8.1)
                                                              Dodgers/Marlins Under 8.5 (7.4)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • FUqer
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-22-15
                                                                • 3968

                                                                #346
                                                                SDQL 7/14

                                                                ALL = Sunday 4-2-2 (Total 441-346)
                                                                SU = Sunday 1-1 (Total 223-171)
                                                                OU = Sunday 3-1-2 (Total 218-185)
                                                                ---------------------------------

                                                                SU

                                                                PLAY: The Nationals are 14-0 SU since May 4, 2016 as a road favorite after they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off the starter last game.

                                                                team=Nationals and AF and po:BPRA > po:SRA and date>=20160504



                                                                PLAY: The Braves, Brewers, and Padres (996-599 +11.6%)

                                                                H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



                                                                PLAY: The Pirates (46-22 +24.7% ROI)

                                                                H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]



                                                                ------------

                                                                OU

                                                                UNDER: Cubs/Orioles (49-26-2 +24.7% ROI)

                                                                team = Orioles and H and date >= 20160709



                                                                UNDER: Giants/Padres (288-199-27 +12.4%)

                                                                H and REG and 6.5<=total<=8 and total/2<=STDSERA<=5.25 and total/2<=o:STDSERA<=5.25 and 1.25<=STDSWHIP<=1.55 and 1.25<=o:STDSWHIP<=1.55 and season>=2007



                                                                UNDER: Cardinals/Pirates (41-24-3 +20.4%)

                                                                H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]



                                                                OVER: The Braves are 20-4 OU at home after they allowed 12-plus hits.

                                                                team = Braves and H and 12 <= po:hits and date >= 20160612



                                                                OVER: D-Backs/Braves (78-50-5 +15.8% ROI)

                                                                team=Braves and date>=20160811



                                                                OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 148-107-10 OU +10.8% ROI this season.
                                                                (Twins, Indians, D-Backs, Dodgers, Rockies, Cardinals, Mariners)

                                                                A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



                                                                OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (158-115-18 +10.0% ROI)
                                                                (Braves, Nationals)

                                                                date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O



                                                                ________________

                                                                SU

                                                                Nationals
                                                                Braves
                                                                Brewers
                                                                Padres
                                                                Pirates
                                                                Rangers


                                                                OU

                                                                Cubs/Orioles Under
                                                                Giants/Padres Under
                                                                D-Backs/Braves Over
                                                                Twins/Astros Over
                                                                Indians/Athletics Over
                                                                Dodgers/Marlins Over
                                                                Rockies/Mets Over
                                                                Mariners/White Sox Over
                                                                Nationals/Reds Over
                                                                ___________________________________

                                                                If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html
                                                                Last edited by FUqer; 07-14-17, 12:15 AM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • FUqer
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-22-15
                                                                  • 3968

                                                                  #347
                                                                  Friday Plays 7/14

                                                                  »-Rays -112

                                                                  »-Cubs/Orioles Under 10 -103
                                                                  ___________________________

                                                                  Faria 5-1 team starts this season, with only team loss coming when the bullpen gave up 5 runs in a 3-3 game after 6 innings.

                                                                  Opponents have only scored 1 run in 4 of Faria's 6 team starts.

                                                                  Faria isn't a power pitcher so less chance that he starts to fade due to fatigue, IMO.

                                                                  Nolasco 1-7 L8 team starts vs the Rays.

                                                                  Under 9-1-1 L11 in series.

                                                                  Rays have won the last 5 in LA, last 21 of 29 there.

                                                                  Rays 5-2 Away, this season on Friday's.

                                                                  Angels 2-5 Home, this season on Friday's.

                                                                  Rays 10-5 Away, this season in first game of the series, 3-0 L3.

                                                                  Angels 4-8 Home, this season in the first game of the series, 0-5 L5.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • FUqer
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-22-15
                                                                    • 3968

                                                                    #348
                                                                    Originally posted by FUqer
                                                                    Friday Plays 7/14

                                                                    »-Rays -112
                                                                    »-Cardinals +108

                                                                    »-Cubs/Orioles Under 10 -103
                                                                    ___________________________
                                                                    I added the Cardinals, I already posted the reasons why I like them yesterday.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • FUqer
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-22-15
                                                                      • 3968

                                                                      #349
                                                                      Still on the fence with the Rangers.

                                                                      PLAY: The Rangers are 10-0 SU vs the Royals their L10 meetings, Under 8-2. (Added to SDQL plays)

                                                                      10-0 (2.20, 100.0%) avg line: -125.8 / 115.5 on / against: +$1,013 / -$1,041 ROI: +77.2% / -100.0%
                                                                      Under 11-1 L12 meetings in KC.
                                                                      Perez 3-9 team record L12 Road starts.
                                                                      Hammel 4-14 team record last 18 starts, 3-9 L12 at Home.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • FUqer
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 01-22-15
                                                                        • 3968

                                                                        #350
                                                                        Originally posted by FUqer
                                                                        Friday Plays 7/14

                                                                        »-Rays -112
                                                                        »-Cardinals +108
                                                                        »-Rangers +111

                                                                        »-Cubs/Orioles Under 10 -103
                                                                        ___________________________
                                                                        I added the Rangers after looking at a few more things. The Royals are better hitters from the left side and although Perez hasn't shown it this season, he is usually strong vs lefties, so his numbers should get better in that dept. Hammel's GB% is under 40% and he has given up 8 homers to righties this year and the Rangers are a top 10 hitting team from the right side. The pitching and offense edge has to go to the Rangers, while the Royals have the bullpen advantage, but both squads should be nice and rested.
                                                                        Comment
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