MLB 2017 - SDQL, Projections, Picks, Tracking, Discussion

**FUqer** · 07-04-17, 06:15 AM

SDQL 7/4

ALL = Yesterday 6-2-1 (Total 400-331)
SU = Yesterday 3-0 (Total 206-161)
OU = Yesterday 3-2-1 (Total 194-170)
---------------------------------

SU

PLAY: The Twins (46-20 +28.6% ROI)

H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]

PLAY: The Yankees (993-595 +11.8% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

PLAY: The Cardinals (104-56 +10.1% ROI)

HF and line<-130 and line>-160 and p:margin>7 and p:margin<10

FADE: The Marlins (426-563 -12.8% ROI)

p:margin=-8

PLAY: The Indians are 17-1 SU since Jul 25, 2008 in the first game of a series with rest as a home 140+ favorite after they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent.

team=Indians and rest>0 and HF and po:TLOB < p:TLOB and FGS and line<=-140 and date>=20080725

PLAY: The Indians are 12-1 SU since Jun 22, 2013 when Corey Kluber starts as a home favorite when they won in his last start in which he had a WHIP of less than 1.

team=Indians and HF and starter=Corey Kluber and s:W and s:SWHIP < 1 and date>=20130622

------------

OU

UNDER: The Cardinals are 0-12 OU in franchise history when Lance Lynn starts at home in July.

team = Cardinals and starter = Lance Lynn and H and month = 7

UNDER: Mets/Nationals 163-81-7 +26.8% ROI)

STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3

UNDER: Angels/Twins (40-23-3 +21.2% ROI)

H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]

OVER: The Twins are 20-5 OU when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series.

team = Twins and line<=120 and p:walks>=5 and p:W and SG > 1 and date >= 20130903

OVER: The Twins are 11-1 OU after a game as a home favorite in which they scored in at least four separate innings since Apr 19, 2016.

team=Twins and p:HF and p:SII >= 4 and date>=20160419

OVER: The White Sox are 24-5 OU as a dog after a win in which they left 18+ men on base.

team = White Sox and D and p:LOB>=18 and p:W and date >= 20150622

UNDER: D-Backs/Dodgers (61-36-7 +20.5% ROI)

H and total<=7 and 9 * tS(o:earned runs - starter earned runs) / tS(9 - starter innings pitched) <= 3.75 and tA(walks)>=4 and 2010<=season and SG<4

OVER: Teams both off a day rest this season. (61-35-5 +20.2% rOI)
(Astros/Braves, Rays/Cubs, D-Backs/Dodgers, Padres/Indians, Giants/Tigers)

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 136-97-10 OU +11.3% ROI this season.
(Astros, Marlins, Rays, Padres, Royals, Mets, Blue Jays)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (146-106-18 +10.5% ROI)
(White Sox, Rangers, Astros, Marlins)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Twins
Yankees
Cardinals
Indians

OU

Angels/Twins Over
Astros/Braves Over
Rays/Cubs Over
Padres/Indians Over
Giants/Tigers Over
Marlins/Cardinals Over
Royals/Mariners Over
Blue Jays/Yankees Over
White Sox/Athletics Over
Red Sox/Rangers Over
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

**FUqer** · 07-04-17, 06:18 AM

Interested in:

Yankees
Twins
Mets
Giants
Braves
Red Sox
Brewers

Blue Jays/Yankees Over
Padres/Indians Over
Astros/Braves Over
Reds/Rockies Under
Marlins/Cardinals Over
White Sox/Athletics Over

**FUqer** · 07-04-17, 07:07 AM

Tuesday Plays 7/4

»-Mets +155

»-Marlins/Cardinals Over 9.5 +102
___________________________

I'll be taking the Braves, just waiting on a better price. Waiting for Brewers and Rockies FF and some team totals.

**FUqer** · 07-04-17, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Tuesday Plays 7/4

»-Mets +155
»-Royals +125
»-Braves +146
»-Red Sox +118

»-Brewers FF -½ -115
»-Rockies FF -½ -115

»-Marlins/Cardinals Over 9.5 +102
»-White Sox/Athletics Over 9.5 -103

»-Braves TT Over 4 +105
»-Astros TT Under 5 -110
___________________________

Additions.

**FUqer** · 07-04-17, 03:06 PM

Small 6 teamer risking $1.75 to win a unit.

Pirates -145
Indians -1 -257
Rangers TT U4.5 -120
Dodgers TT O4.5 -105
Royals TT O4 -110
Pirates/Phillies Over 8.5 -118

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 12:10 AM

Tuesday Results 7/4

W - »-Royals +125
W - »-Red Sox +118
L - »-Mets +155
L - »-Braves +146

W - »-Brewers FF -½ -115
L - »-Rockies FF -½ -115

W - »-White Sox/Athletics Over 9.5 -103
L - »-Marlins/Cardinals Over 9.5 +102

P = »-~~Braves TT~~ Over 4 +105
L - »-Astros TT Under 5 -110
___________________________
Yesterday = 4-5-1 = -0.82
___________________________
Bankroll = 1967 / 3000
___________________________

Wins were easy and losses weren't even close, I needed Braves to get one more run for me for it to be a winning night but had to settle for a push. Again the Braves are the latest example where I crush the closing line but they lose. I specifically waited when it was at +133 this morning, took it at +146, and about an hour later it drops to +115, too bad Newcomb got rocked.

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 11:50 AM

SDQL 7/5

ALL = Yesterday 6-8 (Total 406-339)
SU = Yesterday 1-3 (Total 207-164)
OU = Yesterday 5-5 (Total 199-175)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The Braves are 0-27 SU since Jul 19, 2015 in not the first game of a series at home after a game as a home dog in which they allowed 5+ walks.

team=Braves and H and p:HD and po:walks>=5 and SG>1 and date>=20150719

FADE: The Diamondbacks are 0-19 SU as a 140-plus dog when seeking immediate revenge for a road loss in which they never led.

team = Diamondbacks and SG > 1 and line>=140 and p:AL and p:BL = 0 and date >= 20130822

FADE: The Nationals are 0-14 SU as a dog off a game as a favorite when seeking same season revenge vs their opponents starting pitcher and it is not a series opener.

team = Nationals and SG > 1 and D and p:F and oS:W and oS:season = season and date >= 20130430

FADE: The White Sox are 1-25 SU as a 155+ dog after a game in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base.

team = White Sox and line>155 and po:LOB < 10 and season >= 2011

PLAY: The Phillies (140-112 +9.9% ROI, but 3-13 L16)

STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3

PLAY: The Phillies (150-161 +8.2% ROI)

p:runs<=3 and division!= o:division and (SG=1 or SG=3) and op:runs<=3 and H and rest<3 and line>=105 and month!=8 and 2006<=season and 10>=total>=6.5

FADE: The Phillies are 2-19 SU as a 130-plus dog after they had six or fewer hits and it is not a series opener.

team = Phillies and SG > 1 and line>=130 and p:hits <= 6 and season >= 2016

PLAY: The Pirates (241-145 +9.4% ROI)

AF and pp:LOB=14 and 7<p:LOB<18 and -3<p:margin

PLAY: The Rays (68-63 +19.5% ROI)

o:conference = NL and conference = AL and AD and month < 8 and 9.5 >= total >= 7 and p:W and series game=2

PLAY: The Cubs and Rockies (993-596 +11.7% ROI)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

PLAY: The Astros (537-377 +9.8% ROI)

(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)

------------

OU

UNDER: Pirates/Phillies (461-230 +25.7% ROI)

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

UNDER: Pirates/Phillies (163-82 +26.3% ROI)

STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3

UNDER: D-Backs/Dodgers (386-221 +20.5% ROI)

H and month > 5 and season>2009 and 1.2 > tA(BPRA) > .6 and 8>(s:SRA-os:SRA)>-4 and (p:hits + os:walks)<15 and month!=8 and s:SRA<6 and os:SRA<5 and 30.7>(p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP)>18.7 and (op:SIP + opp:SIP + oppp:SIP + opppp:SIP)>19.4 and total>6.4 and p

u margin>-6.6 and streak<5 and o:streak<6 and -8 < o

u streak<4 and os:SPT<123 and team!=Twins and team!=Red Sox and o:team!=Indians and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO + ssss:SSO)>9 and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO)<26 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO +osssss:SSO)>13 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO)<31

UNDER: The Red Sox are 1-21 OU in the last game of a road series after a win in which their opponent left more than 16 men on base.

team = Red Sox and A and po:LOB>16 and p:W and LGS and date >= 20110717

UNDER: The Red Sox are 2-16 OU as a dog after they hit more home runs than their opponent.

team = Red Sox and D and p:HR > po:HR and date >= 20160417

OVER: Teams on the Road are 19-1 OU after scoring 15 or more runs their previous game since 04/22/16.
(Astros)

p:runs>=15 and A and date>=20160422

OVER: The Braves are 19-4 OU at home after they allowed 12-plus hits.

team = Braves and H and 12 <= po:hits and date >= 20160612

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 140-100-10 OU +11.2% ROI this season.
(Marlins, Mets, Reds)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (150-107-18 +11.0% ROI)
(Rangers, Astros, Red Sox)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Astros
Dodgers
Mets
Athletics
Rockies

OU

Pirates/Phillies Under
D-Backs/Dodgers Under
Astros/Braves Over
Marlins/Cardinals Over
Mets/Nationals Over
Reds/Rockies Over
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 12:11 PM

Wednesday Plays 7/5

»-Mets -110
»-Rangers -106

»-Pirates/Phillies Under 8.5 +107
»-Marlins/Cardinals Over 9 +105
___________________________

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 12:51 PM

I think this line for Lackey at Home is suspect. He is never in that range unless he playing a top tier team or top 10 pitcher, but yet he up against Snell, who has lost his last 4 team starts and 2-8 in his last 10. I know the Cubs aren't playing good and I do like this Rays team, but that seems low. The Rays are also a borderline system play as it stands right now, so I'm going to be watching that over the next 30 mins.

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 01:03 PM

deGrom won his L3 in Washington. Roark lost L5, but 7-3 vs Mets. Road teams 11-3 L14 when trying to avoid the sweep.

The Rangers have 175 AB's vs Fister and are batting .309 with a .854 OPS.

Pirates/Phillies Under was a SDQL and personal play.

Marlins/Cardinals Over was a system play.

The Rays have a .321 BA and .897 OPS off Lackey in 84 AB's.

Marlins and Reds may be system plays.

Twins, Rangers, Royals OVER may be system plays.

Astros/Braves Over may be a SDQL play.

I personally like the Brewers vs lefties, especially this one.

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 01:07 PM

Pass on Rays, it's moving away from a system line play quickly now.

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 01:15 PM

Welcome to my journal

, it helps me think when I type stuff out sometimes, especially when I'm behind and need to think fast and maybe it will help somebody else.

Next day game up is the White Sox/Athletics, then I can relax a bit. I had a slight lean on the White Sox, but this line seems way to high for me and Pelfrey hasn't done good vs the A's in limited action. I get 8.7 as the total so nothing there. The White Sox have been the worst team for me this year. They are showing great value but a little too good, IMO. Should be an easy pass for me.

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 01:33 PM

I would live play the Cubs down 1-0 if I was a live player, still -145.

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 02:00 PM

I was about to play D-Backs TT Over 3 +100 but they are averaging 1.67 rpg on the Road vs lefties this season and 2-7 SU, while Wood has won his last 9 team starts and has some revenge for for an earlier season beat down in Arizona. The D-Backs have scored 1 run 6 times out of their 9 road games vs lefties and exactly 3 runs the other 3 games. I think I'll pass on that TT Over. The Under looks good but I have the Over as a system play so that will most likely be a pass too. Dodgers and Under would be my leans.

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 02:07 PM

Here comes movement on the Red Sox at about the same time as yesterday, could be the same person or group going large. I'm not worried, could of gotten a better price though.

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Wednesday Plays 7/5

»-Mets -110
»-Rangers -106

»-Brewers FF -½ -110

»-Pirates/Phillies Under 8.5 +107
»-Marlins/Cardinals Over 9 +105
»-Astros/Braves Over 10 +100
___________________________

Added two plays, may add the Marlins and Reds still.

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Wednesday Plays 7/5

»-Mets -110
»-Rangers -106
»-Marlins +122
»-Reds +140

»-Brewers FF -½ -110

»-Pirates/Phillies Under 8.5 +107
»-Marlins/Cardinals Over 9 +105
»-Astros/Braves Over 10 +100

___________________________

Added Marlins and Reds. Maybe the Mariners later.

**OlDirtyBaztid** · 07-05-17, 07:51 PM

mariners was a hot pick for me up. was trying to wait for juice to die but it looks like it's going to either stick or go up higher the more public bets on kc. lol. i grabbed it at -139

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by OlDirtyBaztid

mariners was a hot pick for me up. was trying to wait for juice to die but it looks like it's going to either stick or go up higher the more public bets on kc. lol. i grabbed it at -139

somebody just prolly placed a big one on KC, dropped it 10 cents, I'm still undecided, I liked it better at -140 if that makes sense, either way prolly be a -1 play.

**OlDirtyBaztid** · 07-05-17, 09:03 PM

your wish might be your command. going back up. lol

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 10:31 PM

Originally posted by OlDirtyBaztid

your wish might be your command. going back up. lol

Looking like I should of took them, didn't want to press my luck tonight though, mad I didn't play that Over too. Hopefully they hold them off for you.

Miranda seems like he is one of the more shakier 1st inning pitchers there is, but I like him though, at least the bats came through for him this time.

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 10:36 PM

Looked at the Giants first for tomorrow and found some Over trends for the pitchers.

Cueto is 13-3 Over L16 starts vs AL, and 14-7-2 Over L23 Day starts.

Sanchez is 22-10-3 Over last 35 starts overall, and 6-1 Over L7 starts vs NL, and 13-4-2 Over L19 Day starts.

I like the Giants and maybe their TT Over.

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 11:10 PM

Thursday Plays 7/6

»-Giants +104

»-Braves/Nationals Over 9 -113
______________________________

I like the Red Sox and Braves for now. The Overs in Twins and Red Sox games are system plays and so is the Under in the Cardinals, but not sure if I'll play any or not yet. The Overs in the Mariners and Phillies games would be possible model plays. May tread lightly today.

**FUqer** · 07-05-17, 11:29 PM

Wednesday Results 7/5

W - »-Rangers -106
W - »-Marlins +122
L - »-Reds +140

W - »-Brewers FF -½ -110

W - »-Pirates/Phillies Under 8.5 +107
W - »-Marlins/Cardinals Over 9 +105
W - »-Astros/Braves Over 10 +100
___________________________
Yesterday = 6-1 = +5.34
___________________________
Bankroll = 2234 / 3000
___________________________

**FUqer** · 07-06-17, 02:45 AM

SDQL 7/6

ALL = Yesterday 8-1 (Total 414-340)
SU = Yesterday 4-0 (Total 211-164)
OU = Yesterday 4-1 (Total 203-176)
---------------------------------

SU

FADE: The Padres are 0-18 SU in the last game of a series as a 140-plus dog off a road game in which they allowed one or fewer walks.

team = Padres and LGS and line>=135 and p:A and po:walks <= 1 and season >= 2008

FADE: The Padres are 0-11 SU as a Road Dog when on a 3 game win streak since 7/26/14.

team=Padres and streak=3 and AD and date>=20140726

FADE: The Marlins are 0-21 SU as a 135-plus dog when their opponent is seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they never led.

team = Marlins and SG > 1 and line>=135 and po:BL = 0 and p:W and date >= 20140626

FADE: The Giants (122-229 -28.8% ROI, but 11-1 L12)

FADE: The Diamondbacks are 0-20 SU as a 140-plus dog when seeking immediate revenge for a road loss in which they never led.

team = Diamondbacks and SG > 1 and line>=140 and p:AL and p:BL = 0 and date >= 20130822

FADE: The Dodgers (236-239 -13.9% ROI, Under 18-5 L23)

p:margin =1 and pp:margin=1 and F and line>-210 and month!=5 and conference=o:conference

PLAY: The Dodgers (995-596 +11.8% ROI, 9-2 SU L11)

H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

------------

OU

OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 141-101-10 OU +11.1% ROI this season.
(D-Backs, Braves)

A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017

OVER: Teams on at least 3 str8 Overs (152-109-18 +10.70% ROI)
(Athletics, Astros)

date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

________________

SU

Indians
Cardinals
Tigers
Dodgers

OU

D-Backs/Dodgers Over
Braves/Nationals Over
Athletics/Mariners Over
Astros/Blue Jays Over
___________________________________

If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best under dog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html

**FUqer** · 07-06-17, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Thursday Plays 7/6

»-~~Giants +104~~

»-Braves/Nationals Over 9 -113
______________________________

I like the Red Sox and Braves for now. The Overs in Twins and Red Sox games are system plays and so is the Under in the Cardinals, but not sure if I'll play any or not yet. The Overs in the Mariners and Phillies games would be possible model plays. May tread lightly today.

Cueto is a scratch, play canceled.

**FUqer** · 07-06-17, 02:41 PM

The Reds missed a system line play by one point.

I'll prolly play the Red Sox FF or RL, maybe TT Over 4, or Over for the game. I like Faria, I just have a feeling they get to him today and the Red Sox have owned the Rays.

The D-Backs are on my list, but it's really hard to play on a team that can't score on the road vs lefties, in 10 games now in that spot, they are 2-8 SU and have scored 1 run 6 times and 0 runs once. They did get 3 off Hill in LA earlier this season, but they haven't exactly been on fire at the plate recently. They might not need too many runs as Robbie Ray has been one of the best Road pitchers this season and I believe Road teams trying to avoid a sweep are now 11-3 their last 14. They could be a play but public seems to like them also.

Outside chance of playing the Athletics today, I'm still expecting a little regression from Gaviglio.

Astros seem like it's too easy.

I like a few totals but not real close to playing any at the moment.

One trend I forgot about, even until after I played the Over was the Braves and Nationals going over 18 times out of their last 22 meetings.

18-4-0 (3.14, 81.8%)

avg total: 8.5

over / under: +$1,375 / -$1,638

ROI: +53.6% / -65.7%

**FUqer** · 07-06-17, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Thursday Plays 7/6

»-Red Sox FF -½ -115

»-Braves/Nationals Over 9 -113
______________________________

Added Red Sox FF.

**thekoreanmang** · 07-06-17, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

The Reds missed a system line play by one point.

I'll prolly play the Red Sox FF or RL, maybe TT Over 4, or Over for the game. I like Faria, I just have a feeling they get to him today and the Red Sox have owned the Rays.

The D-Backs are on my list, but it's really hard to play on a team that can't score on the road vs lefties, in 10 games now in that spot, they are 2-8 SU and have scored 1 run 6 times and 0 runs once. They did get 3 off Hill in LA earlier this season, but they haven't exactly been on fire at the plate recently. They might not need too many runs as Robbie Ray has been one of the best Road pitchers this season and I believe Road teams trying to avoid a sweep are now 11-3 their last 14. They could be a play but public seems to like them also.

Outside chance of playing the Athletics today, I'm still expecting a little regression from Gaviglio.

Astros seem like it's too easy.

I like a few totals but not real close to playing any at the moment.

One trend I forgot about, even until after I played the Over was the Braves and Nationals going over 18 times out of their last 22 meetings.

18-4-0 (3.14, 81.8%)

avg total: 8.5

over / under: +$1,375 / -$1,638

ROI: +53.6% / -65.7%

Nice trend! I'm on it!

**FUqer** · 07-06-17, 07:03 PM

Early leans for Friday.

Marlins
Cardinals
Twins
_____________________________________
Marlins/Giants Over 8 (model play)
Astros/Blue Jays Over 9.5 (system play)
Brewers/Yankees Over 10.5 (system play)
Braves/Nationals Over 8 (system+model play)
D-Backs/Reds Under 9 (model play)

**FUqer** · 07-06-17, 07:27 PM

Friday Plays 7/7

»-Cardinals -113
»-Marlins -108

»-Braves/Nationals Over 8 -108
»-Marlins/Giants Over 8 -113
________________________________

**FUqer** · 07-06-17, 07:52 PM

Friday Projections

@ARI - (-211 67.8%) (8.3)
@WAS - (-257 72.0%) (8.2)
@TEX - (-155 60.8%) (9.4)
@CLE - (-187 65.2%) (8.9)
SD@ - (+107 48.3%) (8.8)
@SEA - (-152 60.3%) (8.5)
MIA@ - (-109 52.2%) (9.0)
BOS@ - (-122 54.9%) (8.2)
@COL - (-165 62.3%) (12.4)
@TOR - (+139 41.8%) (9.1)
BAL@ - (+106 48.5%) (10.4)
@LAD - (-176 63.8%) (8.4)
@CHC - (-129 56.3%) (9.4)
@STL - (-128 56.1%) (7.7)
@NYY - (-140 58.3%) (10.2)

**FUqer** · 07-06-17, 08:39 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

Thursday Plays 7/6

»-Red Sox FF -½ -115

»-D-Backs +130
»-Athletics +145

»-Braves/Nationals Over 9 -113
______________________________

Added two plays for tonight. Oakland is now a system play.

**FUqer** · 07-06-17, 09:13 PM

Oakland dropped over 15 cents in the 30 minutes since I played it, knocking it out of a system line play. Doesn't bother me much though, I still like it.

**OlDirtyBaztid** · 07-06-17, 09:32 PM

i'm wth you on both those plays.only thing that gets me nervous about the dbacks, aside from dodgers being one of the best teams in baseball, is the public % on favoring them.
i post on covers. the amount of negativity on this site is unreal so i just avoid it.