EP36's: Chase For 60

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • MexicanStallion
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 09-08-08
    • 20429

    #351
    Great night. Congrats on your futures bet.
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #352
      Play #128: Padres/Rangers UNDER 10.5 (-105)
      On vacation fellas, so no big write-up tonight. It's hot in TX. Millwood's home dates are UNDER 8 of 10.
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #353
        Play #129: Diamondbacks/Reds OVER 8 (-110)
        Haren vs. Arroyo. Haren's road starts have gone over in 5 of 7, due mainly to an explosion of offense to back him. That could continue against the topsy-turvy Arroyo who gave up 5 ER vs. Arizona on the road earlier this season. Arroyo is 4-2 at home with a 5.82 ERA this season. Haren gave up 3 ER in 7 IP in a game earlier at home this season vs. CIN. His last four road starts have all gone OVER.
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #354
          Play #129: Rays/Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 (-120)
          Shields vs. Romero. Shields has hit the UNDER in 4 of 6 road starts and 6 of 8 day starts. His last start broke a string of 6 straight UNDERs, but he is 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 8 career starts vs. TOR. Romero hasn't given up more than 3 ER in any of his last 5 starts. The UNDER has also hit in 16 of the last 22 in this series played in Toronto.
          Comment
          • EaglesPhan36
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-06-06
            • 71662

            #355
            Play #130: White Sox +100
            Contreras vs. Sowers. White Sox are playing well, winning 8 of their last 10. Contreras has pitched decently in his four starts since returning from the DL. 7 ER in 4 games, all 7 though have come in the last 2. Sox are 2-2 in that span. Indians meanwhile are just 2-7 in Sowers last 9 starts. He's already lost to Chicago twice this season and four straight dating back to last season. The Pale Hose are raking against lefties right now, .385 in their last 10 and .302 on the road this season. Both teams are on four game streaks, Chicago winning 4, Cleveland losing 4.
            Comment
            • EaglesPhan36
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-06-06
              • 71662

              #356
              Play #131: Diamondbacks/Reds UNDER 8.5 (-115)
              Davis vs. Harang. Harang has a ridiculous 1.66 ERA vs. Arizona in his lifetime. His last 8 against them have gone UNDER. At home, his starts are averaging 7.5 runs per game. During matinee starts, it's lower still at 6.2 runs per game with 4 of 5 starts hitting UNDER. Davis's roadies are averaging just over 7 runs per game with 4 of 6 hitting UNDER. 4 of his last five road starts have hit UNDER.
              Comment
              • EaglesPhan36
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-06-06
                • 71662

                #357
                Play #132: [SERIES] Twins -160 (Tigers)
                Important to win Game 1 with Slowey pitching. He is 10-3 this season and the team has won 10 of his 15 starts. Game 2 favors Detroit & Edwin Jackson, so I see Game 2 as the rubber game hopefully. Game 3 is Porcello vs. Blackburn. Minny is 24-15 at home and has won 3 straight series & 6 of their last 7.
                Comment
                • EaglesPhan36
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-06-06
                  • 71662

                  #358
                  Play #133: [SERIES] Mariners -140 (Orioles)
                  Good match-up here on the road-home split with the Mariners sporting a 21-15 record at SAFECO, while the Orioles are just 12-26 on the road. After sweeping the Phillies on the road in June, the O's have now lost 6 of their last 7 roadies. Outside of the Phils sweep, BAL has won just two road series since the beginning of May. One over the Nats, the other against KC. The M's meanwhile come in off a solid road trip that saw them capture road series wins against two of the best teams in the bigs against the Red Sox & the Dodgers. SEA has won five straight series at home & have claimed both series vs. BAL, one at home and one on the road. Pitching match-ups should favor SEA with Washburn, Bedard & Vargas lined up. O's hitting just .222 on the road vs. lefties. Big Game #1 to start as Bergesen has pitched real well against SEA twice. Washburn has been a little tough luck this year, but the M's have won 3 of his last 4 home starts. Both bullpens have been a little iffy, but SEA has been solid at home with a 2.81 ERA. If Bedard pitches well off the DL in Game 2, I think SEA can definitely take at least 2 of 3.
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #359
                    Play #134: Reds/Phillies Runs+Hits+Errors UNDER 28 (-115)
                    Cueto vs. Hamels. Hamels has been brilliant against the Reds in his career with a 1.25 ERA in 6 career starts. He has been iffy lately though, giving up at least 7 hits in his last 5 starts and 4 ER or more in 3 of his last 5. Cueto has been ridiculously filthy on the road, 6-2 with a 2.14 ERA. In 59 IP, just 40 hits by the opposition. In a repeat of this pitching match-up earlier this season in Cincy, there were just 21 total hits+runs+errors in a 4-3 Phils win. The UNDER has hit in 7 of the last 8 between these two teams and the home-road splits support that as well. Just like this a little better than the total of 8.5 for some reason.
                    Comment
                    • EaglesPhan36
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 12-06-06
                      • 71662

                      #360
                      Play #135: Marlins/Giants OVER 8.5 (-110)
                      West vs. Cain. This is a weather-wind related play to see if the numbers lie or not. Forecast is calling for winds blowing W at 12-13 mph during the game. This year at AT&T Park, when the wind blows between 10-20 mph toward the West (Out to CF), the OVER has cashed 10 of 12 games. Overall, with wind speeds between 10-20 mph, OVERs have hit 15 of 23 games at home for the Giants. FLA starter Sean West was brilliant vs. SF in June, tossing 8 shutout innings. Since that start though, the lefty has yielded at least 4 ER in 3 of 4 starts. Not coincidentally, those 3 starts all went OVER. Matt Cain has continued to fluster opponents, giving up 1 ER or less in 7 of his last 10 starts. At home, his starts are averaging just 7.5 runs per game. Giants have hit lefties well at home, .304 avg. No Hanley Ramirez, so take it at your own risk
                      Comment
                      • EaglesPhan36
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 12-06-06
                        • 71662

                        #361
                        Two sheety picks today. Thank goodness the SERIES pick got off on the right foot.
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #362
                          Never mind. Late Marlins rally gets the OVER home. Wind speeds don't lie again?!?
                          Comment
                          • EaglesPhan36
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 71662

                            #363
                            Play #136: Tigers Team Total OVER 4.5 (-120)
                            Tigers' bats are better at home where they average about 5.5 runs per game. In two games back in the majors, KC starter Bruce Chen has given up 6 ER in 12.1 IP. In those games, the opposition has scored 10 runs total. The one caviat here is that DET has not scored for Justin Verlander at all in his past 6 starts, failing to go over 4 runs. They've also only scored 5 or more, twice in their last 10. DET has hit .321 at home though vs. lefties, which gives me hope that they will bust out the whoopin' sticks tonight.
                            Comment
                            • waco66
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-14-09
                              • 1645

                              #364
                              ^^nice cash. Keep it up EP36
                              Comment
                              • EaglesPhan36
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-06-06
                                • 71662

                                #365
                                Play #137: Giants -119
                                Volstad vs. Sadowski. Sadowski has been superb in his first two MLB starts, yielding 0 earned runs in 13 IP. The Giants have won his two starts, scoring 20 total runs. FLA has lost 6 of the last 7 starts by Volstad & are 4-4 in his road starts this season. He did pitch well against SF in a 2-1 home loss earlier this season. SF continues to dominate at home, 28-13 so far this season. Add in that Hanley Ramirez is likely to sit again with a hip problem & SF has a nice shot to finish a 3 game sweep here.
                                Comment
                                • EaglesPhan36
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-06-06
                                  • 71662

                                  #366
                                  Play #138: Padres/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 (-105)
                                  Gaudin vs. Scherzer. Gaudin has been mighty kind to the D-backs during his career. In 14.2 IP in his career vs. SD, he's yielded 15 earned runs. In two starts vs. ARI this season, Gaudin has been touched for 12 ER. Scherzer has been downright dominating at times, but still has streaks of wildness. In his 8 home starts, the OVER has cashed 6 times. Those games average almost 12 runs per contest. He's been solid in 2 starts this season vs. SD, just 2 ER in 12 IP. Problem for Max has been getting deep into games. He's gone 6 IP or less in 14 of his 16 starts leaving the D-backs leaky bullpen to do work. 7 of Scherzer's last 10 starts have hit over today's posted total. The ARI pen has an ERA over 5 at home this season and remains at over 4.80 on the season. SD's pen has been better lately, but much worse on the road at 5.30 ERA. In 11 meetings, the OVER has hit 9 times between these two this season. 7 have beaten today's total & the D-backs remain one of the best OVER home team in the majors with 28 of 45 hitting in that direction. Chase Field averages 10.33 runs per game and ranks 5th in the # of HRs hit this season at 104.
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #367
                                    Thanks Mariners for the perfect end to an awful day.
                                    Comment
                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-06-06
                                      • 71662

                                      #368
                                      Play #139: Reds/Phillies UNDER 10 (+100)
                                      Owings vs. Moyer. In this series, the UNDER has hit in 4 of 6 this year. Both teams have also cashed UNDERS in at least 60% of their last 10. Owings road starts are averaging 9.2 runs per game with 6 of his last 7 starts overall hitting 10 runs or less. Moyer at home has hit for an average of 8.5 runs per game. Over his last 10 starts, 8 have cashed UNDER a total of 10.
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #369
                                        Play #140: Royals/Red Sox UNDER 9.5 (-115)
                                        Late add here. Hochevar vs. Penny. Red Sox on a solid home UNDER run. Hochevar's last 3 roadies went UNDER. Penny also had solid home starts in his last 3-4 with UNDERs being favored.
                                        Comment
                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 12-06-06
                                          • 71662

                                          #370
                                          Looks like another shitty night for me in baseball. Jeeze. Probably play one series this weekend and rest up at the All-Star Break to try and keep the percentage around 56-57.
                                          Comment
                                          • t-bone
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-18-08
                                            • 3732

                                            #371
                                            the unders are starting to fade in the MLB......best of luck eagles and keep up the great thread!
                                            Comment
                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 12-06-06
                                              • 71662

                                              #372
                                              Play #141: [SERIES] Orioles -120 (Blue Jays)
                                              The opener looks like a toss-up as TOR has dropped his last 5 starts. On the road, Cecil is just 1-1 with a 6.94 ERA. For BAL, Berken has been nearly as bad. The O's have only won 2 of his 8 starts, but he has kept them in games. He's allowed 4 ER or less in 5 straight, but received just 13 runs of support during that span. BAL has hit lefties much better at home (.314), so hopefully they can get to Cecil early and build some confidence. Game 2 pits Romero (L) against Bergesen (R). Romero has been solid as has Bergesen. Romero though gave up 5 ER vs. BAL back in May in a 7-2 loss. Bergesen is 5-1 at home and gave up 3 ER in 6 IP vs. TOR in a 5-4 road loss earlier in the year. What could be the rubber game on Sunday would pit rookie Rzepczynski against Jeremy Guthrie. The rook was awesom in his debut against TB, giving up 1 run in 7 IP. BAL has won 3 of Guthrie's last 4 starts. He limited them to 1 ER in 7 IP in a 4-1 BAL win at home earlier in the season. TOR is just 3-11 over their last 14, while BAL comes in off a road series win in Seattle. These two teams split their 6 games this season. Each swept a series at home. This is a similar set-up to May when BAL swept at home. They were coming off a mostly forgettable road trip that ended with a series win in Washington. They then reeled off 5 straight at home against TOR & DET. Likewise, last visit to BAL, TOR was coming in with 6 straight road losses (lost 6 out of 7 on this current trip) and then got swept. Game 1 is huge if the O's want to win this series.
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #373
                                                Play #142: [SERIES] White Sox +125 (Twins)
                                                Great series here as the White Sox are surging in the Central and the Twins are now fighting to keep pace with Chicago & Detroit. The opener pits Danks against Blackburn. Danks' road starts have yielded a 6-2 record for the Pale Hose. Blackburn has been equally impressive at home as MIN has won 6 of his 7 appearances. Blackburn pitched the only MIN win in 6 tries against Chicago this season, the 20-1 debacle of Bartolo Colon. Game 2 is Gavin Floyd & Glen Perkins. Floyd is 3-3 in his career against MIN with a 3.91 ERA. He's 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA in 4 starts at the Metrodome. Perkins is 1-0 in 5 appearances against the ChiSox with a 4.50 ERA. Chicago has been clubbing lefties lately which should help, a 350 avg. in their last 10 and over .300 on the road. If Chicago can get a split of the first 2, Game 3 should favor them with Buehrle on the mound against Baker. Buehrle is 23-13 lifetime vs. MIN and has won both of his starts against them in 2009, yielding 2 ER in 13.1 IP. Baker is 3-3 with a 6.85 ERA in 9 starts against Minnesota. Overall, the White Sox have won 6 of their last 8 series with the other two being splits.
                                                Comment
                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                  • 71662

                                                  #374
                                                  Play #143: Toronto -125
                                                  Big hedge play here for the previously listed series bet on the Orioles. BAL has shaken up their pitching rotation due to a viral infection to Jeremy Guthrie. Rich Hill slips into the rotation today and he has been horrid. Romero at this price with this pitching match-up seems sturdy and should potentially recoup some of the losses to the series bet.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • diogee
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 01-11-08
                                                    • 19477

                                                    #375
                                                    Oh shit...first day that I've had time in a while and we match on that one. Sorry EP...hopefully the curse is broken tonight.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                      • 71662

                                                      #376
                                                      LoL @ Diogee. You know what bro, I'm not sure how it's gonna turn out - but I actually couldn't connect to the Internet before to place that Blue Jays bet, so it's a void for me. Seeing as the O's are up, I expect a Toronto rally for you!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                        • 71662

                                                        #377
                                                        Looks like a split of the series bets.

                                                        1st half record (including NCAA baseball plays)
                                                        73-57-9 (+27.45 units) [56.15%]

                                                        Plus units is always good, but the percentage has fallen farther away from 60 in the last week. Hopefully the All-Star break brings everyone a chance to refresh & reload for the stretch run!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-06-06
                                                          • 71662

                                                          #378
                                                          Realized I need to make more SERIES plays in the 2nd half as well. Only played 20, went 13-7 for +11.7 units. I don't think enough people explore the use of SERIES bets. If you can find SERIES where one team has significant pitching edges in at least 2 games, that's usually where I start. Anywho, just musing as I look over some of the #s.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • diogee
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 01-11-08
                                                            • 19477

                                                            #379
                                                            Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                            LoL @ Diogee. You know what bro, I'm not sure how it's gonna turn out - but I actually couldn't connect to the Internet before to place that Blue Jays bet, so it's a void for me. Seeing as the O's are up, I expect a Toronto rally for you!
                                                            That works out nicely then. Still looks like an 0-fer when I post in agreement.

                                                            Good luck in the 2H.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 12-06-06
                                                              • 71662

                                                              #380
                                                              Play #142: All-Star Game Total # of Home Runs OVER 1.5 (-185)
                                                              Yeah that price is pretty stout, but the numbers back this as a pretty solid play - hence why I am actually going for it. There have been at least 2 home runs hit in 17 of the 18 All-Star games played since 1989. There have been at least 2 bombs hit in every Mid-Summer Classic since 2001. That includes games at pitcher's parks like SAFECO, Comerica and AT&T Park. St.Louis is not considered a hitters park as it has averaged just 8.25 runs per game this season, but I believe that has a lot more to do with the quality of pitching in St.Louis rather than a lack of hitting. Only 75 HRs hit at Busch, that ranks in the bottom 10 in the league - but again may be more about pitching than a lack of hitting or at the least, a lack of consistent power bats in the Cardinals lineup outside of Big Al. Wind supposedly will be S-SE which is blowing right-to-left and out toward left. Could help.

                                                              All-Star Game HRs
                                                              MLB All-Star Game home runs, research by Baseball Almanac, includes every pinch-hit home run, first at-bat home run, and every other Midsummer Classic home run.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-06-06
                                                                • 71662

                                                                #381
                                                                Figures the streak would be broken this year of course.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                                  • 71662

                                                                  #382
                                                                  Play #143: Angels +113
                                                                  Santana vs. Braden. Santana has just been flat out awful, so this could be a stretch. However, the A's uniform has always brought out the best in him. 9-1 in his career with an ERA of 1.36. He's 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 6 starts at Oakland. You have to believe the Angels sense that as well by making him the 1st starter back from the break in this 4 game series. Braden is a solid pitcher, but he does not get much run support. In fact, he gets the least support in the AL at 3.47 runs per start. Will add that as bad as Santana has been, 2 of his best starts since he debuted in 2009 have come on the road (8.2 IP/1 ER @ DET & 6.2 IP/1ER @ SEA).
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                                    • 71662

                                                                    #383
                                                                    Play #144: [SERIES] Mariners -105 (Indians)
                                                                    A good price for the better team in this match-up. This series bet covers the 1st three games of this set from Thurs-Sat. Game 1 pits Garrett Olson and Cliff Lee. Lee has just not been able to perform up to last year's Cy Young consistency and the Tribe are just 5-14 in his starts this season. Despite a 3.27 ERA, CLE is just 3-7 in his home starts. SEA is also raking against lefties with a .302 avg in their last ten. CLE is still struggling vs. left handers with a .232 avg at home against southpaws. All of that makes this a little more of a toss-up than expected. If SEA can steal the opener, they have a legit shot to finish this quickly. Game 2 puts Felix Hernandez on the mound against David Huff. The King is 5-1 with an ERA under 2 on the road. The M's are 8-2 in his road starts & will be facing another lefty in Huff who was hit for 16 ER through 15.1 IP of his last 3 starts. Game 3 gets Jarod Washburn on the mound against Tomo Ohka. He's been a tough luck pitcher on the road with SEA going just 1-6 in his road starts despite a 3.77 ERA. Most of that stems from poor run support, but SEA could find runs against Ohka. In 4 starts, Ohka has given up 4 ER or more in 3 of those and the Indians have lost all 4 of his starts. Seattle's pen struggling a bit heading into the break, but still holds an edge over Cleveland's which sports an ERA of 5.15 on the season. Seattle has taken 4 of their last 6 road series and need to make a statement to start off the 2nd half of the season if they feel they have a legit shot at hanging around in the AL West.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                                      • 71662

                                                                      #384
                                                                      Play #145: Brewers +118
                                                                      Suppan vs. Arroyo. The Brewers are 7-3 in Suppan's road starts this season. In his last 5 roadies, he's allowed 3 ER or less. Arroyo is 4-4 at home, but sports an astronomical 6.37 ERA. The Reds are 4-5 in his home starts. CIN has lost 6 of his last 8 starts overall. MIL has gone 6-3 against Cincy this season.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                                        • 71662

                                                                        #385
                                                                        Play #146: Angels -103
                                                                        Saunders vs. Cahill. Saunders is 7-2 in 11 career starts against OAK with a 3.77 ERA. At McAfee Coliseum, he's been a stud. 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA. That includes a win in May at Oakland. The A's still struggle against lefties at home, hitting just .218 against southpaws and just .229 this season against left handers. Cahill pitched well in his lone start vs. LAA, just 2 ER in 5 IP earlier this year. He did struggle going into the break though, giving up 4 ER or more in 3 straight starts.
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...