1-0 yesterday
today:
PR: CLE, WAS, CWS, SD
run:MIL, TOR, ATL, HOU (dogs only...)
GL
today:
PR: CLE, WAS, CWS, SD
run:MIL, TOR, ATL, HOU (dogs only...)
GL
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Comment -
PR went 0-3
run went 1-1 +.75 units
todays plays:
PR: LAA, NYM, CLE, NYY, PHI, CIN, ARZ, STL, SD, OAK
run:CWS, MIL, WAS, TOR, FLO
GLComment -
Can you post the plays for this just for a week or so. That way I can tell if I'm doing it right.
FYI... a new twist on sportrends software. Using the last 14 days as a small sample data, I did the following. Stay with me while I explain this, might be a little confusing at first. I do the PT part of the software first (option #9, then option #7) and I look for games where one team is >= .500 while playing against another team that is <=.500, example, for yesterday's games the Yankees .765 playing against the Mets .412, so I write down Mets (I take the <= .500 team, usually the underdog). I write down all the games that fall under this criteria. I then go and run the "pick winners" option #1 off the main menu (I'm looking for all the Best Bets selections only). I'm looking for each game that I wrote down, again with my example Mets / Yankees, if the game is a Best Bet, which it was a best bet for the Yankees, NOT the mets. Then I play the METS (not the best bet selection) with the +1.5 run line, not the moneyline. For the past 14 days, using this method, it went 28-5. Keep in mind when you take the +1.5 runline the vig. is usually high, but since we are usually taking the underdog, the Vig. is lower then if we were taking the favorite. The five losing games the +1.5 runline was -.125, -.160, even, -.185, -.150. So instead of 5 losses, it will come out to be about 7.2 loses when you calculate the vig. So the 14 day total was 28-7.2 which comes out to be +20.8 plus units for 14 days. so I'm basically using the software opposite of what it predicts. I'm looking for teams =< .500 (which also have a less then 50% of winning the game on the PT side of the software) vs. a team that has a =>.500, yesterdays example, the PT software had the Yankees with a 85% chance of winning the game (Mets 15% of winning) and then I go AGAINST the best bet selection of the software, yesterday, the Yankess were the best bet selection.
If you decide to play the moneyline bet instead of the +1.5 run line the 14 day outcome for the same teams was 21-12, +9 units, probably a little higher due to the fact your betting on the underdog in the game and you should be getting + vig on your bets (I did not research the odds for all 33 games).
BTW, the Mets won both the moneyline and the +1.5 run line and the game in yesterdays matchup with the Yankees. That was the only selection from yesterdays games.
CAUTION !!!! Do not go bet your mortgage on the next selections (there are two for SUNDAY), I do not have an extra rooms for you and your family to live in ! LOL plus you know murphy's law... since I'm writing this up today, both selections will go 0-2 ! LOL
Just wanted to throw out an idea and give back to the some of the good cappers on this site. Been Following CK for a couple of years, Thanks CK for the insight and WINS
! Also want to give thanks to Formulawiz and peterpan19, you guys got me to buy the software and try different options with the software.
Hopefully, this way of viewing the stats continues to have success, if it doesn't then back to the drawing board I go... Good luck with everyone's Bets !!!!! Peace out !!!! 
Are today's Arz and Oak +1.5
Phi also is a play but are favorites so should I lay off because I don't get +1.5.Comment -
todays plays:
PR:SD, FLO, DET, KC
run:PIT
GLComment -
BAL was a no play...Berken didnt pitch 20 InningsComment -
Todays plays
Todays plays
Pete make sure we are on the same page.
CUB, TOR, DET, CIN, HOU, KC, LAA, ARI and TEX. Watch out for streaks and very suspicious linesComment -
wiz
correct
run plays:MIL, TOR, ATL, TX...dogs only...
PR went 3-1 +2.9
run went 0-1 -1
GLComment -
Tommygunn, This weeks plays using my criteria have been, Monday (no plays), Tuesday Washington (lose), Wednesday (no plays), Thursday Atlanta (win), Washington (win), Friday are 3 plays Pitt, Tampa, Houston. so far this week it's been 2-1.
The other variation is if you play all the underdog games (+1.5) under the PT criteria, for the week, you would have the following Monday 2-0, Tuesday 8-4, Wednesday 5-3, Thursday 10-2, so for the week it would be 25-9
good luckComment -
PR went 4-5...run went 1-3
vjonesii
what was the vig for the 9 losses ?.... bc were they at -120 or -150 or -170 ?
also how did you go 2-0 on monday...play was on Mil and SF for that day...CLE and SF were picks according to PT... but I thought you would only play it when you had the lower PT play and a pick by the software against you...meaning the only play on monday was LAA +1.5... but since they were the fav...you would have to lay something like -250 or so... ???
never mind...looks like you play any team on the RL according to PT...but what about favs ?
also I dont know how you only got 9 plays on Wed...I got 11...
...
Comment -
todays plays:
PR:KC, TB, CWS, TOR, ATL, HOU, NYY, LAD, ARZ
run:HOU
GLComment -
PR went 4-5 +0.55 YTD: 77-103 -9.4 L4: 16-14 +5.9
run went 1-0 +1.8 YTD: 27-32 +4.05 L4: 6-5 +3.5
todays plays:
PR:MIL, CWS, BOS, WAS, BAL, STL, MIN, CLE, ARZ
run: CWS, ATL, TOR, BAL, STL, OAK ... dogs only
GL
run:Comment -
Pete I know that KC, TB and CWS should count for the record, but here is another ex: as these teams should never have been plays based on streaks. KC L3, TB L3 and CWS L2. You would have saved yourself .6 units.
It also looks like we are having a rebound last 2 days with BB 5-0 and PT 8-3.Comment -
PR went 4-5 -0.55
run went 3-1 +2.65Comment -
Pete I went 4-2 yesterday using the PR system. I dont think we can continue to count every game a system spits out when there are W/L streaks involved. Look there has to be some common sense here. We cant take teams such as MIL-L2, CLE-L5 and KC-L4 who are all on huge losing streaks. Its crazy. The same goes with the BP-2-0 and the TPR-2-0 systems which all did pretty good yesterday. I think we should not list teams on 2 or more game losing streaks because it only confuses people especially when the systems are doing pretty good.
It looks like the last 3 days BB 7-0 and PT 12-5. Lets keep it goingComment -
wiz
like I said b4... people want to know what the system plays are... no matter what... I think we should keep two records instead...one were we filter out teams that are on a 2L or more and another were we keep track of all plays... yeah BB were pretty good the last few days...seems like they finally turn it around for us...Comment -
Pete I think its wrong. We cant tell people to jump off the empire state building because the system says to. I myself never play any game where a team is on a 2 or more game losing streak and obviously like to play teams on 2 or more game winning streaks. The records are then skewed. I myself have been killing the bookies by using this simple rule. I dont think its sportrends responsibility to tell people not to play games when there are streaks involved, its common sense. Just like you would not count a game over -175 why would you count a game when teams are on big losing streaks. I guess its up to you. If you have the time go ahead and keep both ways but I think its confusing. I would rather leave a win on the table then play the game when a team is on a big losing streak.Comment -
What is this shit you guys have going on over here? Is it purely mathematical?Comment -
of course we cant tell them to jump... but if the system produces the play than I have to at least mention it, right ? ... sportrends says to not play fav over -130 but they dont say anything about streaks, but we both know it is very important factor... so what I say is we start with a new record right now today, with new clear rules how to play the games... so lets say we only play teams that are -130 or lower and are not on a 2L streak or more or on a 5W or more ?... what do you say ?... maybe we should also exclude the 2 worst teams in baseball according to their current records, what do you say ? e.g. we had 8 plays on WAS since May 15th... all of them were losses...ARZ 11 plays 2 wins only... both teams pretty much the worst teams in baseball all year long... or lets filter out every last placed team in the Division too, cause they did very bad too...
so what do you think formula:
no play over -130
no play on teams 2L or more
dont play against teams 4W or more
no play on last place team in each division or overall record under .450
clear and simple and it should help cut down the plays and bring us back into + money...
I will keep track of the new rules for 1 week and see how it does...and after that we decide... but it might be a very good idea...
GLComment -
ck
more or less math onlyComment -
It is mathematical but you have to use good handicapping skills and common sense. Would you wager on a team if its a system play knowing half the lineup is out. So why would you wager on a team that is on a losing streak. If this is your type of handicapping good luck.
As far as filters
1. Follow system plays when they dont break the following rules
2. I never bet on teams having a losing streak or bet against teams on winning streaks. First rule of baseball and any novice would understand this.
3. I never bet on shit teams such as WAS unless they are an overwhelming dog of + 250 or > and bet small
4. I have no ML limits to wageing on FAV. At times I will wager on fav over -175 when my handicapping tells me to. I am not telling you to do so.
5. I also wager on sweeps when conditions are right.Comment -
so todays plays would be
PR: CHC, OAK ... but Oak is too big of a fav already, so its filtered out and SF is hot right now, 3W, so it would be close anyway
run: SF... hot team, big underdog... play is on...
GLComment -
It seems you don't understand what the goal of this thread is. We are trying to improve several handicapping systems to have a better chance of winning and if this includes applying filters so be it. We ask everyone to give us their ideas and filters so we can apply it. Just being a wise guy does not help.Comment -
Over & under
can you use this system to pick over and under?? and if so how thanksComment -
I have been tracking the PT system for the past month and the results have shown me that when it comes to picking underdogs the PT system is: 11-25, so when it comes to handicapping your own games using common sense I wouldn't play a team thats the underdog. Even though yes those 11 wins might be pretty big payouts, its still not enough to break even or make a profit by picking the underdogsComment -
PR went 0-1 and run went 0-1... but BB are hot right now... 9-0 and counting...
todays plays laterComment -
Would like to clarify something about streaks. If both teams in a matchup are on a 2 or more game winning or losing streak thats fine, I look at both teams and then go with the system play if it warrants a play. Its when one team in a matchup is on a 2 or more game losing streak then I stay away from that team.Comment -
I have used the system for O/U and grand salami picks. the over unders are 10-1 and the salami is 2-0 since i purchased on june 2. How I play it is review each teams projected score and review my book if i see a 2 run diff i play. The salami has to have a 10 or more run diff. Not a lot of plays but sucess so far. good luckComment -
play for today (unfiltered):
PR:WAS, CLE, PHI, NYM, FLA, MIL, HOU, TX, OAK, SEA
run:LAD, TX
filtered PR plays: NYM, FLA, MIL, HOU, TX
GL today...Comment -
[quote=Formulawiz;1965335]Thats terrific. Can you give us an example using the O/U system on one of tonights game[/qu
no play tonight. The closest play would be the brewers. sportrends says the projected total should be 8 and the books say 9.5 I want it to be 10. If the books changed it to 10 i would play the under. Salami is the same but i raise the stakes. I want the line to be 10 or more. Need a bit more room for error. Hope this helps. I can post a play if people want them. I do want to be fair to sportrends and protect them so when some comeup i will post. I feel I can't post thru the entire season but I will give you the ones I see to show you what I mean. good luck to all.Comment -
[quote=SOXROCK;1966231]So basically you use a 2 run overlay over the total runs predicted by sportrends software under pick winners option 1. I take it you use 30 days as the default. Looking at yesterdays predicted scores between MIN/MIL you get 8.2 runs and your saying the run line should be at least 10 for an under play or 6 for an over play.
SoxRock if you have the time why dont you keep a win/loss record for the next 2 weeks on O/U's and then give us a daily update as to how the system is performing without giving away games.Comment -
[quote=Formulawiz;1967641]I will do that for you. i have also been using sportrends with an excel spreadsheet to put together picks. went 6-0 last night and over the last 8 days 49-16. I will call this sportrends twisted and keep you informed. so far it looks promising but to early tell.Comment
