MLB 2nd Half Strategy - +318u last 3 years

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 8/16

Flat Betting (Entered day 102-66, -17.87 u)

- NYM at -167 - Loss
- Tor +1.5 at -210 - Win
- Sea +1.5 at -190 - Win
- Sea +1.5 at -190 - Win
- Bal at -165 - Win
- Tex +1.5 at -180 - Win


5-1, +3.33 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 76-47, +1.76 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 31-20, -16.3 u

Year to date combined - 107-67, -14.54 u



Chase (Entered day 101-3, +47.5 u)

- NYM B bet - Loss
- Tor B bet - Win
- Sea B bet - Win
- Sea C bet (vs Bos) - Win
- Bal A bet - Win
- Tex A bet (vs TB) - Win


Year to date - 106-3, +52.5 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

A little more than a month to go and right on pace for another +100 unit season.

My applause to those of you who have weathered the storm with me. It took brass balls to hang in there and you deserve all the credit in the world.

As for those of you who decided to jump ship, I honestly can't blame you. These last 2 weeks have been downright torture. Even our wins somehow feel like losses. So don't beat yourself up if you bailed. It's completely understandable.

Anyway, we've basically got 5 weeks left - and tomorrow begins one of them. This is shit or get off the pot time. So if you're gonna be in, make sure you're in all the way. Otherwise, wait til next year.

[bryanoens]

It's been a crazy few weeks but the end result has been great. Let's hope for less stress in the coming weeks.

[sportsbetter21]

Way to be consistent

A little more than a month to go and right on pace for another +100 unit season.

My applause to those of you who have weathered the storm with me. It took brass balls to hang in there and you deserve all the credit in the world.

As for those of you who decided to jump ship, I honestly can't blame you. These last 2 weeks have been downright torture. Even our wins somehow feel like losses. So don't beat yourself up if you bailed. It's completely understandable.

Anyway, we've basically got 5 weeks left - and tomorrow begins one of them. This is shit or get off the pot time. So if you're gonna be in, make sure you're in all the way. Otherwise, wait til next year.

[keel44]

You are on pace for your worst flat betting result by a wide margin. That is disappointing because it was really the more safe way to play.

After seeing the chases in action, I would be in favor of chasing, but only for 0.5% of your bankroll at the time of each new chase. You have a lot of action with high juice.

[chief42]

You are on pace for your worst flat betting result by a wide margin. That is disappointing because it was really the more safe way to play.

After seeing the chases in action, I would be in favor of chasing, but only for 0.5% of your bankroll at the time of each new chase. You have a lot of action with high juice.

Based on what you have seen so far, have you been able to calculate what the expected rate of return would be on flat betting for this season? Also, given the high juice with the chase method were able to come up with an adjusted expected unit loss per series? Going from 2% down .5% is a big jump so I was wondering how you came up with that specific number. Thanks for your insight Keel

[ledjend]

It's been a crazy few weeks but the end result has been great. Let's hope for less stress in the coming weeks.

That would be nice.

[ledjend]

Way to be consistent

Thanks man!

[sportsbetter21]

You are on pace for your worst flat betting result by a wide margin. That is disappointing because it was really the more safe way to play.

After seeing the chases in action, I would be in favor of chasing, but only for 0.5% of your bankroll at the time of each new chase. You have a lot of action with high juice.

This is sole reason I pitched a fit when asking for parameters on how the chase series were chosen.
SO YOU CAN BACKTEST THE NUMBERS.
Just because someone post they can win 100+ units and hit 80% or greater flat betting doesnt mean anything.
Hopefully you werent betting your 8% flatbetting theory but if you did then I hope you learned your lesson but this is sportsbetting and maybe the chase series will tank while the flat betting picks up at a higher win rate.
If this were easy and everyone had all the answers on how to pick winners 100% of the time then everyone would be doing it and bookies would go broke

[ledjend]

You are on pace for your worst flat betting result by a wide margin. That is disappointing because it was really the more safe way to play.

After seeing the chases in action, I would be in favor of chasing, but only for 0.5% of your bankroll at the time of each new chase. You have a lot of action with high juice.

You're exactly right, Keel - flat betting has been a disappointment up until now.

The core problem stems from the winning percentages. We were expecting a 67% or greater win rate, while we've only been hitting at 61.5% thus far.

There's still 5 weeks and 100+ plays to go and who knows, maybe we hit at a 75% clip over that period. Seems unlikely at the moment, but far from impossible.

[ledjend]

TODAY 8/17


- Pit A bet (vs Ari) - currently -209, play Money Line (705 est)
- LAA A bet - currently -142, play Money Line (1005 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 8/17

Flat Betting (Entered day 107-67, -14.54 u)

- Pit at -203 - Loss
- LAA at -159 - Win


1-1, -1.03 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 77-47, +2.76 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 31-21, -18.33 u

Year to date combined - 108-68, -15.57 u



Chase (Entered day 106-3, +52.5 u)

- Pit A bet - Loss
- LAA A bet - Win


Year to date - 107-3, +53.5 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[keel44]

Based on what you have seen so far, have you been able to calculate what the expected rate of return would be on flat betting for this season? Also, given the high juice with the chase method were able to come up with an adjusted expected unit loss per series? Going from 2% down .5% is a big jump so I was wondering how you came up with that specific number. Thanks for your insight Keel

I was only estimating. I know with all of these chases at once. You will have a day where you will have 3 "B" bets and a couple "C" bets all at once. Your bankroll will be in jeopardy, especially if you have a bad night.

You need protection and patience. If you somehow manage to make 100 units at 2% per, that would be spectacular.

There is nothing wrong with 100 units at 0.5% per. Coupled with the fact you could compound that 0.5% with every new series.

In all of these chases that are out there, people way over bet them. I mean think about it. If you start really low, you could raise your bets slowly after a chase loss and in theory you could chase a chase. You could also raise your bets slowly after chase wins as well.

[ledjend]

TODAY 8/18


- NYM C bet - currently -104, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at -240 (705 est)
- NYY A bet (vs Min) - currently -145, play Money Line (705 est)
- Pit B bet - currently -192, play Money Line (705 est)
- Tex A bet (vs Sea) - currently +127, play Run Line +1.5 at -145 (805 est)
- StL A bet (vs SF) - currently -153, play Money Line (815 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[Slipknot26]

Thank you
Good Luck ledjend
Let's get it tonight

[tr4sh]

Mets making this a sweat.... wtf

[ledjend]

Thank you
Good Luck ledjend
Let's get it tonight

Thanks buddy!

[ledjend]

Mets making this a sweat.... wtf

Lol I know - seems like no lead is ever safe.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 8/18

Flat Betting (Entered day 108-68, -15.57 u)

- StL at -141 - Loss
- NYM +1.5 at -240 - Win
- NYY at -139 - Win
- Pitt at -191 - Win
- Tex +1.5 at -135 - Win


4-1, +2.59 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 80-48, +4.35 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 32-21, -17.33 u

Year to date combined - 112-69, -12.98 u



Chase (Entered day 107-3, +53.5 u)

- StL A bet (vs SF) - Loss
- NYM C bet - Win
- NYY A bet (vs Min) - Win
- Pit B bet (vs Ari) - Win
- Tex A bet (vs Sea) - Win


Year to date - 111-3, +57.5 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[Slipknot26]

Nice night ledjend
It's a ghost town when C bets pop up in here haha
Best of luck today

[ledjend]

Nice night ledjend
It's a ghost town when C bets pop up in here haha
Best of luck today

Yeah you would think there'd be a little more reaction after we hit those.

[ledjend]

TODAY 8/19


- Ari A bet - currently +144, play Run Line +1.5 at -155 (705 est)
- StL B bet (vs SF) - currently -175, play Money Line (715 est)
- Hou A bet (vs TB) - currently -177, play Money Line (810 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[bryanoens]

C C C C C!!!!! Woot woot...

[chief42]

First C bet I didnt think we had to sweat, then the dreaded Mets bullpen comes in and damn near blows the lid off the whole thing. That would have hurt if that didnt work out for us. Glad we survived another C bet. Just when I think I can breathe with this system, its on to the next one. Good work so far Legjend

[chief42]

By the way, whats up with the funky spelling of your name?

[ledjend]

C C C C C!!!!! Woot woot...

Haha!

[ledjend]

By the way, whats up with the funky spelling of your name?

Me and my brothers use the word legend to describe pretty much everything - legend wasn't available, but ledjend was.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 8/19

Flat Betting (Entered day 112-69, -12.98 u)

- Ari +1.5 at -175 - Loss
- StL at -159 - Win
- Hou at -173 - Win


2-1, +.25 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 82-49, +4.60 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 32-21, -17.33 u

Year to date combined - 114-70, -12.73 u



Chase (Entered day 111-3, +57.5 u)

- Ari A bet - Loss
- StL B bet - Win
- Hou A bet (vs TB) - Win


Year to date - 113-3, +59.5 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

TODAY 8/20


- Pit A bet (vs SF) - currently -135, play Money Line (705 est)
- Ari B bet - currently -116, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at -280 (710 est)
- CHC A bet - currently -280, play Money Line (805 est)
- CHC A bet (vs Atl) - currently -280, play Money Line (805 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 8/20

Flat Betting (Entered day 114-70, -12.73 u)

- Pit +1.5 at -320 - Win
- Ari +1.5 at -270 - Win
- CHC at -290 - Win
- CHC at -290 - Win


4-0, +4 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 82-49, +4.60 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 36-21, -13.33 u

Year to date combined - 118-70, -8.73 u



Chase (Entered day 113-3, +59.5 u)

- Pit A bet (vs SF) - Win
- Ari B bet - Win
- CHC A bet - Win
- CHC A bet (vs Atl) - Win


Year to date - 117-3, +63.5 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[dishwasher]

just found this thread. great work. I have a 2000$ bankroll, how much should my unit size be for betting the chase? 30$ 40$? thank you.

[InsaneStre4k]

nice bounce back:

[bryanoens]

Dish, I would suggest 2-3% which would be $40-$60 per unit.

[ledjend]

just found this thread. great work. I have a 2000$ bankroll, how much should my unit size be for betting the chase? 30$ 40$? thank you.

I recommend 2% of your bankroll, which is what I play for. So that would be $40.

As a heads up though, there have been nights where I've had most of my bankroll in play. So it can get a little hairy here and there. If that scares you, then 1% might be the way to go.

[ledjend]

nice bounce back:

Yes - seems like the mojo's finally back!