EP36's: Chase For 60

EaglesPhan36 · 07-18-09, 02:59 PM

Play #147: Angels/A's 1st 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-125)
Weaver vs. Mazzaro. Weaver has solid #s against OAK in his career. He's given up just 13 ER in 45.2 IP against them in 7 career starts. Mazzaro has been superb for OAK, but has been the victim of poor run support. Mazzaro has a 3.44 ERA in 3 home starts and has been even better during the day with a 2.19 ERA in 2 starts. Weaver's day #s are equally impressive, a 1.80 ERA in 4 starts. The A's offense seems to be slow starting more often than not & don't show up much for Mazzaro, so if Weaver brings his usual stuff & Mazzaro can keep the Angels at-bay early, this one will be close.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-18-09, 04:04 PM

Hope you boys are fading me hard. I suck right now.

diogee · 07-18-09, 05:00 PM

Should have checked ur thread first and warned ya...I had under for the game.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-19-09, 12:16 PM

Play #148: Rays/Royals UNDER 9 (-110)
Garza vs. Hochevar. Runs do not follow Matt Garza, especially on the road where his starts are averaging just 6.7 runs per game. Also, in his last 9 starts, the total has not gone over 9. 5 straight road starts have gone UNDER. Hell, 18 starts this year for Garza and only 3 have hit over 9 runs. Pretty impressive. None since May 21. Hochevar is the question mark here. He's given up 9 ER over his last two starts which came on the heels of just giving up 2 ER over the previous two starts. So who shows up? Dr.Jekyll or My.Hyde? His home starts have been better, a 3.99 ERA vs. 6.75 on the road. In the series between these two teams, the UNDER has cleaned up in the last 10 - hitting 7 times and pushing once on a total of 9. Key for me here is Hochevar. If he can give a solid effort over 6-7 IP, without giving up more than 4 runs ... This might have a chance.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-19-09, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by diogee

Should have checked ur thread first and warned ya...I had under for the game.

LoL. Never fails. I'm miffed at my book because they did not offer any series bets for the ones that started Friday. I had the White Sox down as one I was going to take and the Cardinals. Cards need to win today to win the series, but probably would have split at worst on those two since the Sox already took care of business. Did manage to cash the Seattle series bet. I really want to stick more to making series bets in the 2nd half. These seem to offer a lot more opportunity in my opinion. Just hoping my book steps it back up and posts series for the ones starting Monday! Not really sure why they didn't offer any on Friday's series.

t-bone · 07-19-09, 02:41 PM

took under first 5 royals/rays.....looks good for us.

you're gonna catch fire soon!

EaglesPhan36 · 07-19-09, 11:33 PM

Good win today. Hoping for a better week starting Monday.

MexicanStallion · 07-19-09, 11:50 PM

Great call on the Seattle series. You do a great job on those series. I will glady tail those plays.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-09, 03:42 PM

Play #149: [SERIES] Angels -155 (Royals)
Angels head to KC for a 3 game set. Pitching match-up in Game 1 should favor LA with O'Sullivan on the hill against Ponson. O'Sullivan has made 4 starts with the Halos winning all 4. His two road starts have been his best, 13 IP & 3 ER allowed. Ponson has been in the pen since May. He was so-so as a starter, with the better starts coming at home. KC is just 1-5 in his starts though. Game 2 pits E.Santana against Bruce Chen. Santana got his 2nd half off on the good foot with a shutdown performance against his favorite punching bag, Oakland. The good news is that even when Santana was horrible in the 1st half, his best stuff came on the road. He had 2 starts out of 3 where he gave up 1 ER in each start. Chen has been useful as a starter for KC with only one big clunker. KC though as with Ponson does not win when he pitches. 0-4 in 4 starts. Game 3 if needed would see Saunders against Bannister. Saunders' road #s aren't great, but he has killed KC in his career. 2-0 with 1 ER in 15.1 IP, including a CG shutout earlier this season in Anaheim. Bannister has been better at home with KC winning 5 of his 9 starts. Historically, the Angels own this series. They're 8-2 in the last 2 seasons and 43-18 in the last 61 meetings.

Rain may play a role tonight. Make sure you know your book's rules on SERIES. Most will give your wager NO ACTION if a game is post-poned or doesn't go the full 9 innings in all 3 games of the set.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-09, 04:52 PM

Play #150: Giants/Braves Total Hits UNDER 17.5 (-120)
Jonathan Sanchez & Tommy Hanson opposing each other tonight. Obviously, it wouldn't be wise to expect Sanchez to pitch anywhere near as good as he did in his no-hit performance last time out. However, he did keep ATL in check earlier this season, allowing 4 hits in 5 IP in an 8-2 SF win at home. Sanchez is the key in this one for me as his road form this season has been woeful. If he can go 6 & not get torched, that'd be strong and give this one a good shot. Hanson has been solid at home. In two starts, he's gone 17.2 IP and given up just 12 hits. Over his last 5 starts, he's allowed just 18 hits.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-21-09, 03:50 PM

F-ing Braves game last night got ruined by one inning where there were I think 5 or 6 hits by ATL alone in the 7th. Sheesh! Angels series bet cancelled by my book because the games were not played on the listed days.

Play #151: Angels Total Hits -.5 OVER Royals (-115)
Ervin Santana had his best start of the season against OAK last time out, but there's still the question of whether or not he's turned the corner this season. He does have 4 starts on the road this season with 3 of them being very solid in which the Angels out-hit their opponents in each. Ponson is on the hill for KC. He's started three games at home with two resulting in losses and being out-hit by the opposition. In his five starts for KC, Ponson has given up 37 hits. He's also coming off the DL after close to two months, so he may not be sharp at all. If Santana is right, his results should be on par with yielding 5-7 hits in 7 IP or so. For me, this wager is similar to betting on a winner because it's likely the outright winner of the game will out-hit the loser. The reduced juice at -115 provides a little relief over taking the Angels straight up at -133 with Santana still needing to prove himself to me in consecutive starts.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-22-09, 12:33 AM

Play #152: Brewers -101
Suppan vs. Maholm. MIL is 7-4 in Suppan's road starts this year & 8-0 in his last 8 starts against PIT. Suppan is 13-3 in 2 career starts vs. PIT. Meanwhile, Maholm has been stellar at home with a 2.52 ERA, yet still the Buccos are just 4-4 in his 8 home starts. PIT is also 0-9 in Maholm's last 9 starts against MIL. In all, Maholm is 2-5 with a 4.38 ERA lifetime vs. MIL. MIL has won 6 of 7 against PIT this season and 19 of 21 overall in this series.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-22-09, 04:44 PM

Play #153: Rays/White Sox Total Hits OVER 17.5 (-115)
Shields vs. Torres. The White Sox have called up rookie Carlos Torres to replace John Danks tonight. Torres has solid Triple-A numbers, giving up less than a hit per IP and striking out nearly one batter per IP. How will that translate to the bigs? Who knows. The TB bats have been silenced pretty well so far this series with just 12 hits over 2 games. Shields has given up 147 hits in 134.1 IP this season. Against the ChiSox, he's gone 1-1 in 4 career starts with 33 hits in 27+ IP. Earlier this season, he gave up 5 ER and 7 hits in 7.1 IP vs. Chicago. He's given up an average of 8 hits per start in his last 5. The White Sox have 19 hits in the 1st two games of the series, so it's really just a question to me of what can TB do against the rookie.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-23-09, 07:55 PM

Decided for the next two weeks starting with this weekend, only SERIES bets for me. Hopefully old BetPhoenix will offer enough SERIES bets to satisfy this need for me. Think the SERIES bets are the best way to go for me at least.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-24-09, 03:09 PM

Play #154: [SERIES] Rangers -110 (Royals)
The price is pleasant here for two teams going in opposite directions. The Royals have lost 9 straight and haven't won a series since late June. TEX meanwhile is fresh off a 3 game sweep of Boston. Game 1 pits Feldman vs. Greinke. Greinke has continued his solid pitching, but KC is just not scoring enough to win with him on the hill. KC has lost 7 of his last 10 starts, scoring just 18 runs in those losses. Feldman is 5-1 with a 4.06 ERA on the road this season. Game 2 is Holland vs. Hochevar. Hochevar has been better at home with an ERA under 4 in 6 starts and a 3-1 mark. KC has won 7 of his last 10 starts, so this game favors KC. Holland has been shifting back & forth from the pen to the starting rotation. The Rangers did win his two starts in July. Game 3 should favor TEX with Millwood vs. Ponson. Millwood is just 2-6 on the road this season, but he is 4-1 in 6 career starts at Kauffman Stadium with a 4.06 ERA. Ponson is coming off a rough start where he gave up 6 ER in 5 IP against the Angels. KC is 1-6 in his starts this season.

Mikail · 07-24-09, 03:15 PM

I am leaning towards Texas ML today. Even with Greinke on the mound for K.C

EaglesPhan36 · 07-24-09, 03:54 PM

Play #155: [SERIES] Mariners -140 (Indians)
Seattle just won 3 of 4 against the Tribe in Cleveland and is off a successful 5-2 road trip combined with a series win in Detroit. Game 1 matches Laffey vs. Rowland-Smith. CLE is just 1-7 in Laffey's last 8 starts on the road. Seattle is hitting lefties well of late, .316 in their last 10. Rowland-Smith is transitioning back to starter status and did not last but 3+ innings against Oakland his first time out. He does have solid #s vs. CLE though with a 1.54 ERA in 4 career appearances, including 6.1 IP allowing just 1 ER last year at Cleveland. Game 2 should favor SEA with Bedard vs. Sowers. Sowers does have some decent #s vs. SEA, but he's been awful on the road this season. 0-4 with an 8.27 ERA in 4 starts. Bedard is still struggling to get through innings, but SEA has won 5 of his last 6 starts and he did pitch in a 5-3 win at CLE on the prior road trip. SEA will need to get it done in Games 1 & 2 because Game 3 is Cliff Lee time for the Tribe. Jakubauskas goes for the M's. Lee is 8-1 lifetime vs. SEA. Cleveland is 18-30 on the road. Seattle is 25-18 at home. SEA has won 6 of their last 7 series at home.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-26-09, 01:45 PM

Play #156: Giants/Rockies Total Hits OVER 17.5 (-115)
Decided to make a single game play despite my decision to try and do mostly series bets for a bit. Like this one as I look at the numbers. Sadowski vs. Cook. Sadowski is coming off his worst start, 8 hits in 3.2 IP @ ATL. Cook has given up at least 8 hits in 5 straight starts and 6 of his last 7. Cook has also traditionally struggled vs. SF. 6-8 with a 4.82 ERA in 23 career appearances. Cook pitched against the Giants three times last season, giving up 9, 10 & 10 hits in those three starts.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-26-09, 04:52 PM

Finally got a few. Winner today & Rangers series comes in.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-27-09, 03:32 PM

Play #157: [SERIES] Phillies -140 (Diamondbacks)
Three game set kicks off in Arizona tonight with Moyer vs. Garland. Moyer has actually been pretty serviceable on the road this season with a 5-2 record and a 4.38 ERA. Phils are 6-3 in his road starts. Garland has a 6.33 ERA at home, yet the D-Backs have managed a 5-5 record in his home starts. ARI has lost 8 of his last 10 starts though. Game 2 should be the marquee match-up with Hamels up against Haren. Edge has to go to the D-Backs for that one. Hamels has good #s against ARI in 2 starts, a 1-0 record and 2.13 ERA. Phils have won his last 4 starts. Haren has a filthy 2.07 home ERA, but just a 5-4 record. D-Backs have found ways to win his games more often than not with 8 wins in his last 10 starts. Brings us to what could be the deciding game #3. Happ vs. Petit. Edge Phils. Petit is 0-4 at home this season in 7 appearances (6 starts) with an 8.59 ERA. In 5.2 career IP vs. PHI, he has given up 10 ER. Happ has been solid, giving up 3 ER or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. He'll need to rebound from one of his worst, a 5 ER/6 IP loss to STL last time out. Phils still sport the best road record in the majors at 29-15.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-27-09, 05:25 PM

Play #158: [SERIES] Rockies -115 (Mets)
Pitching match-ups: Jimenez vs. Perez, Marquis vs. Pelfrey, Hammel vs. Santana. I think Games 1 & 2 favor Colorado and even though Santana is dominant at home, Hammel has been a solid road pitcher - so Game 3 leans just slightly in my mind to the Mets. Colorado has continued its hot streak post All-Star break and they are also hot on the road, winning 16 of their last 21. That includes winning 4 of their last 6 road series and 4 of their last 5 overall. Mets are coming home at the end of a long road trip where they won their last 2 in Houston, but were just 2-6 before that.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-29-09, 01:10 PM

Play #159: Astros/Cubs UNDER 9 (-105)
Hampton vs. Wells. No time for love Dr.Jones. Just doing it.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-03-09, 03:39 PM

Play #160: [SERIES] Rangers +100 (Athletics)
Texas heads to Oakland for a three game set starting tonight. Pitching match-ups: Nippert vs. Anderson, Holland vs. Gonzalez, Padilla vs. Braden. A slight edge to TEX in Game 1 as Nippert has solid career #s vs. OAK. 1-0 with a 2.93 ERA in 3 career appearances, 2 starts. He's been alternating between the bullpen & spot starts, yielding just 2 ER in his last 11+ IP. Anderson is 0-1 against TEX with a 7.00 ERA in 2 career starts. At home, he's 2-4 with an ERA just over 4. OAK is just 2-5 in his home starts. Game 2 is a toss-up as Holland and Gonzalez have both had moments of good mixed with bad. Holland is off a 8+ IP performance, handcuffing SEA for 1 ER. Gonzalez has pitched well in 2 of his last 3 starts, yielding 2 ER or less in the two solid starts, but 11 ER alone in the bad one. Game 3 finds Padilla on the hill for TEX. Padilla is 4-1 on the road with a 3.18 ERA. TEX has won 3 of his last 4 starts. Braden is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA vs. TEX in 8 career appearances, 5 of them starts. OAK has lost 3 of his last 4 starts and 7 of his last 10 starts. TEX has been hitting lefties well of late, .296 in their last 10 & that's what they'll face in all three games. TEX is 5-2 vs. OAK in 2009. TEX has won 4 straight series.

t-bone · 08-03-09, 04:05 PM

Hey man, not much of a series bettor but I love that Texas play for even money. The Texas starters aren't what they were of years past and the A's.....well you've seen their lineup!

Complete mismatch offensively, good luck

EaglesPhan36 · 08-03-09, 04:55 PM

Play #161: Cubs/Reds Total Hits OVER 17 (-110)
Wells vs. Harang. This is a repeat of a pitching match-up from earlier in the season. That game saw 19 total hits. Wells has pitched twice vs. CIN, yielding 14 hits in 12 IP. Harang gave up 9 hits in 6 IP in his lone start vs. CHI. At home, Harang is giving up 1 hit per inning, 68 hits in 68 IP. Wells has given up 37 hits in 44+ IP on the road. He's given up 6 or 7 hits in each of his last 6 starts. Harang has given up 7 or more hits in 5 straight starts. Both pens have given it up of late with Chicago sporting a 5.60 ERA in its last 10 & Cincy, a 4.65 ERA in that same span. This should be a good opportunity for the Cubs' bats to get back on track after scuffling a bit in Florida to start this road trip.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-04-09, 04:29 PM

Play #162: [SERIES] Marlins -120 (Nationals)
It's possible Hanley Ramirez may miss the opener in this series, but the price is still ridiculously low for the Marlins here. FLA has won 9 of 9 from WAS this season and almost 75% of their last 50 meetings. Josh Johnson vs. J.D. Martin should favor the Fish. Johnson is 4-0 with a 3.43 ERA in 8 career appearances vs. WAS. FLA has won 8 of his last 10 starts. Game 2 is Vandenhurk vs. Lannan, a pretty even match-up. Vandenhurk has been steady in his 3 starts since returning to the FLA rotation, but the Fish have lost 2 of 3. Lannan has been a stud at home with a 1.91 ERA and a 4-1 record. Game 3 is Volstad vs. Stammen. Volstad is 5-3 on the road this season with a 3.86 ERA. FLA has won 4 of his last 5 starts. Stammen is 1-3 at home in 6 starts with a 5.75 ERA. In his lone start vs. FLA, he gave up 3 ER in 5.1 IP on the road in a 7-5 FLA win. Very important for Florida to win the opener with or without Ramirez as the pitching match-up is the best they'll get all series.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-04-09, 11:08 PM

Two days in a row bullpens totally F Game 1s of the series bets. Rangers closing in on losing Game 2 also. Fish one really hurt. Up 4-0 going into the 8th and they lose 6-4 with a 6 run 8th from the Nats. Continue to Fade the hell outta my baseball picks.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-05-09, 04:51 PM

Play #163: Angels/White Sox UNDER 9.5 (-120)
O'Sullivan vs. Floyd. O'Sullivan's three road starts have been quality with the opposition averaging less than 2 runs per game. Floyd's home starts have gone UNDER in 7 of 10 with those starts averaging less than 8 runs per contest. This series has favored the UNDER as well with 9 of the last 13 going in favor of the UNDER. The opener of this series marked the first time in the last ten games that the Angels' total hadn't gone OVER. The White Sox UNDERs at home have been solid all season with the UNDER hitting 35 times in 55 games. Fade especiale!

EaglesPhan36 · 08-06-09, 02:20 PM

Play #164: Rangers/Athletics UNDER 9 (-115)
Hunter vs. Cahill. All 7 of Hunter's starts have gone to totals of 9 runs or less with the UNDER hitting in 6 of 7. Cahill has better numbers during the day with a 3.67 ERA. His home starts have hit more for the OVER than the UNDER, but he did limit TEX to just one ER in 7 IP was back in May. The UNDER has hit 8 of the last 11 times these two have met.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-06-09, 05:08 PM

Another great ending. Thought I had fought out a push. 2 outs no one on in the 9th and the A's score with consecutive hits. Damn, the stinkage continues.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-07-09, 02:11 PM

Play #165: Diamondbacks/Nationals UNDER 9 (-105)
Garland vs. Balester. Garland's road starts have gone UNDER in 9 of 10 and average 6 runs per contest. Balester has pitched decently in his last two starts, yielding 3 ER or less over 5+ IP. The longer Balester goes, the better shot this will have. Arizona bullpen has been steady over the last 10 with an ERA under 2.

Play #166: [SERIES] Astros -110 (Brewers)
Pitching match-ups play a little into the hands of Houston here by tossing lefties Hampton & Rodriguez. MIL is struggling vs. lefties with an average of .143 vs. southpaws in their last 10. The opener could be the deciding game with Villanueva making the start for MIL & rookie Bud Norris going for HOU. Norris was impressive in his debut against STL, limiting the Cards to 2 hits in 7 IP. Not expecting the same, but he should give HOU an edge. HOU should have a slight edge in Game 2 with Parra vs. Hampton. Parra has scuffled a bit still, giving up 4 ER or more in his last 3 starts. Parra has a 7.39 ERA on the road. Game 3 should be superb, Gallardo vs. Rodriguez. That's a total toss-up. MIL has won both series this season.

Play #167: [SERIES] Diamondbacks -140 (Nationals)
Pitching match-ups favor Arizona with Garland, Haren & a resurgent Petit. Both teams come in on 5 game winning streaks. Arizona is 6-1 on their current road trip and their bullpen has been better of late, which could give them an extra edge here.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-07-09, 07:21 PM

I'm officially off of making anything but Series bets for the remainder of the season. I told myself not to play single games, but I tried a few & I think I am just stuck on stupid. Can't find any groove on single games whatsoever. There's a few pitchers I will follow and play the under or over - Matt Garza UNDERs being the main one, but otherwise F it. Series only for me. The End.

EaglesPhan36 · 08-10-09, 04:22 PM

Play #168: Rays/Angels UNDER 9.5 (-110)
Garza vs. O'Sullivan. I said I was staying away from most everything but series bets EXCEPT for the ones with huge trends to follow like Matt Garza. Garza's 21 starts have resulted in 15 UNDERs this season. Only 3 of his starts have gone OVER 9 runs. His road starts are a perfect 10 for 10 in UNDERs this season. 4 of O'Sullivan's 6 starts have resulted in totals of 9 runs or UNDER. He has not yielded more than 4 ER in any start this season.

t-bone · 08-10-09, 04:47 PM

Great value at -110 on that play Eagles........my book has it at -120

EaglesPhan36 · 08-10-09, 04:55 PM

Play #169: [SERIES] Giants -115 (Dodgers)
Even when the Giants were struggling in 2008, they still had the Dodgers number and that has continued into 2009. These two teams have met 8 times in the last two season with the Giants winning 5 of the series and 3 of the 4 series at AT&T Park. L.A. is just 2-6 in their last 8 meetings in San Francisco. The Giants have the NL's best home record and have won 9 of their last 11 series at home. The Reds did snap their six game home series winning streak, but the Dodgers should provide all the refocus SF needs. Also with L.A. struggling recently, the Giants are now just 5.5 games back in the NL West after trailing by 9 games just a few weeks ago. Kuroda vs. Sanchez to start it off. Sanchez has been much better at home, 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA. This is Kurod'as first start against SF in 2009, but he was winless against them in 4 starts in 2008. Game 2 is Wolf vs. Joe Martinez - advantage Dodgers. Game 3 - advantage Lincecum vs. TBA as Billingsley's status with a strained hammy is up-in-the-air. Lincecum is 3-0 in 4 career starts vs. L.A. Giants are 8-4 in his home starts this season.