System Integrity?

SkivChef · 02-20-10, 03:15 PM

yes. play highest fav of day on the runline.

SkivChef · 02-21-10, 02:59 PM

alison13, r u new here? i noticed u only have 2 posts.

PhatBaztard · 02-22-10, 11:43 AM

I just discovered this thread today as I'm anxious for MLB to start this year. I flipped through this thread for seriously about 2 hrs. It seems to have started really well, then when so many people hopped on and started chatting, it got a little confusing to track. So, did this end up being profitable, and worth doing again this year? Did it ever lose 6 consecutive times before Sept 1? Any official results?

allison13 · 02-23-10, 07:32 PM

It was a very good system last year......dont remember it going to a game six all year except in september.

allison13 · 02-23-10, 07:33 PM

Yes Skivy i am new to the forum.

runt23 · 02-24-10, 01:47 AM

Does anyone have any official numbers from last year?

Thanks

Vincepcion · 02-24-10, 03:41 AM

i believe it lost once on a 6 game chase last year...i remember Tampa Bay was the 6th bet and lost

floridagolfer · 02-24-10, 07:18 AM

If you played this from opening day until the last day of the season, yes, there was one six-game losing streak in late September. The general consensus, however, is that you don't play this in the first or last two weeks of the season. I guess the primary thinking behind this is that in the last two weeks of the season, with teams playing out the string with the minor-leaguers they've called up, this doesn't present a true picture of what you otherwise would expect from them. So last year, if you did not play this in the first or last two weeks of the season, it was 90-0.

PhatBaztard · 02-24-10, 08:08 AM

Thanks for the reply. Couple more questions:

So, was the idea of -1 RL was ditched, and everybody just did the traditional -1.5 RL?
Opening lines were used instead of morning lines?

I'm thinking about trying this from May 1st to Sept 1st, but want to make sure I'm doing it right.

floridagolfer · 02-24-10, 08:23 AM

Originally posted by PhatBaztard

Thanks for the reply. Couple more questions:

So, was the idea of -1 RL was ditched, and everybody just did the traditional -1.5 RL?
Opening lines were used instead of morning lines?

I'm thinking about trying this from May 1st to Sept 1st, but want to make sure I'm doing it right.

Use opening lines. How you decide to break ties is up to you.

I'm not sure many people have access to -1 lines, but -1.5 seems to be more commonplace. Naturally, using -1 will give you a push on occasions when -1.5 is a loser.

thebestthereis · 02-24-10, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

If you played this from opening day until the last day of the season, yes, there was one six-game losing streak in late September. The general consensus, however, is that you don't play this in the first or last two weeks of the season. I guess the primary thinking behind this is that in the last two weeks of the season, with teams playing out the string with the minor-leaguers they've called up, this doesn't present a true picture of what you otherwise would expect from them. So last year, if you did not play this in the first or last two weeks of the season, it was 90-0.

Scorpion · 02-25-10, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by ScreaminPain

I think you're missing the point here. The basic premise is "can the biggest favorite of the day lose 6 games in a row?"

The short answer is NO! At least in the test period of 2008.

anything is possible, so what would you do if the largest favorite lost 6 games in a row?
What do you do next?

thebestthereis · 02-25-10, 05:24 PM

go to the bank, make a withdrawal and go to the bar

Scorpion · 02-25-10, 08:24 PM

you cant, you are down 65+ units

thebestthereis · 02-25-10, 08:31 PM

beg for the money, just get hammered cause you blew your roll

floridagolfer · 02-25-10, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by Scorpion

anything is possible, so what would you do if the largest favorite lost 6 games in a row?
What do you do next?

It DID happen in 2009, from Sept. 22-27.

IrishTim · 02-26-10, 12:09 AM

Can't wait to see this thread.

stealthyburrito · 02-26-10, 12:18 AM

another system...

thebestthereis · 02-26-10, 01:18 PM

you need a system or a plan or call it what you will. if you don't have one and are guessing then yur gambling it's that simple. even if you you just bet straight all the time you need to know what games to bet that fit into your system or criteria. with this system or any other at least you are know the bet up-front, you put it in and go to bed. no staring at lines, forums or other nonsense. if it loses units over the course of the season oh well, your government (at least in the USA) lied and manipulated the stock market and killed millions of people's 401k. this is a better investment or risk, that is a fact.

allison13 · 02-27-10, 08:40 AM

Has anybody back tested this system for a four game chase?

floridagolfer · 02-27-10, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by allison13

Has anybody back tested this system for a four game chase?

Last year you would have had one losing series.

fastpitch_45 · 02-27-10, 08:25 PM

Just spent 3 hours reading the previous pages and am looking forward to how this plays out this season

SkivChef · 02-28-10, 02:27 PM

floridagolfer-
So only 1 loss on four game chase. it only went to five once, and lost. six once, and loss. why not play it as a four game. how many units would you lose, roughly?

floridagolfer · 02-28-10, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by SkivChef

floridagolfer-
So only 1 loss on four game chase. it only went to five once, and lost. six once, and loss. why not play it as a four game. how many units would you lose, roughly?

Didn't lose any units; turned out to be damn profitable. I didn't play this in the first or last two weeks of the season. I think the stats show that series ended in four games seven times and went to six games once.

fastpitch_45 · 03-01-10, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

Didn't lose any units; turned out to be damn profitable. I didn't play this in the first or last two weeks of the season. I think the stats show that series ended in four games seven times and went to six games once.

Looks like 4-game may be the way to go

scratbandit · 03-01-10, 07:27 PM

Amazing system.

scrat

SkivChef · 03-02-10, 12:50 AM

flagolfer- i meant if u did a four game chase. how many units would that loss of cost u?

PhatBaztard · 03-02-10, 09:15 AM

1 + 2 + 4 + 8 = 15 units

if:
a bet = $20
b bet = $40
c bet = $80
d bet = $160

and if these lost, you would lose $300 (excluding juice). you would need to win 15 system bets to equal that one 4 round loss.

deanop · 03-02-10, 12:08 PM

Did this do well?

I'm looking for a system this year from the start. If I understand this correctly, bet the largest M/L fav on the RL and double up the next if it doesn't win and so on...is this correct? Any one have any luck w/ it?

bsebal7 · 03-02-10, 12:50 PM

System

Originally posted by deanop

I'm looking for a system this year from the start. If I understand this correctly, bet the largest M/L fav on the RL and double up the next if it doesn't win and so on...is this correct? Any one have any luck w/ it?

When I initially posted this system... I had no idea whether it would work or not..but wanted to bounce it off the forum to see their input. Last year it did very well.... I personally play the -1RL (there are spreadsheets that can autocalculate that for you) to increase the odds of covering. The forum ran with this last year and did a great job keeping up with the plays... let's hope this year its on fire as well!!!!

floridagolfer · 03-02-10, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by SkivChef

flagolfer- i meant if u did a four game chase. how many units would that loss of cost u?

The four losses were at odds of -115, -105, -140 and -120. Someone who's better at math can quickly deduce the total unit loss.

floridagolfer · 03-02-10, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by deanop

I'm looking for a system this year from the start. If I understand this correctly, bet the largest M/L fav on the RL and double up the next if it doesn't win and so on...is this correct? Any one have any luck w/ it?

When you lose a game, you are betting an amount in the next game that provides your profit and covers your initial Game 1 losses.

PatrickBateman · 03-02-10, 11:32 PM

What if instead of doubling your bet each time you lost you just play to win one unit? Or is that already how it works? I did a quick skim through on this so I could be way off. So for example if I was starting with $5 units and the first RL was +115, I am suggesting betting $4.35. If you win, you win $5 and move on. If you lose and the next RL is +110 you would bet $8.50. If you win this bet it pays $9.35 -- You get your original $4.35 back plus a profit of $5.

Is that how this system works? Or is it just a pure chase - doubling up your bet each time?

Also are there any filters? Like not betting on days when there is a small number of games being played?

Jive · 03-03-10, 02:32 AM

I read through this thread last night and gave it some thought. You guys who have a season's worth of experience playing this system tell me what you think of this, as I might be missing something. I admit that I am pretty much anti-chase because of the risk of catastrophic disaster, but the thought intrigues me if there were a way to mitigate risk.

My thinking is, to cut down risk and big bets, cap the streak at 3 games instead of 6. I choose 3 since most series seem to end after one or two games, and a high percentage of them are done after three. Then when the 3rd game is lost (as it inevitably will be), divide the total losses for that chase series up and apply them incrementally to future chases.

For example, using even odds to win one unit just to keep it simple:

Bet A: 1 unit bet to win 1 unit
Bet B: 2 units bet to win 2 units
Bet C: 4 units bet to win 4 units

Following a bet C loss, take the 7 lost units and apply them to the next 7 series (or 14 series; whatever you feel comfortable with). So the next 7 series following a loss would be to win 2 units (or 1.5 units if stretched out longer). Once caught up you go back to betting to win 1 unit per series. Personally, I would probably feel more comfortable stretching them out even further than that, but it all depends on how things are going at the point.

Am I missing something?

PatrickBateman · 03-03-10, 10:26 AM

Has anyone tried this with NHL?