System Integrity?

tbill11 · 04-24-09, 12:55 PM

So a little confused on this system. I'm on the Mets today, but are people still chasing the Phillies runline since they lost yesterday?

ploben · 04-24-09, 02:19 PM

I am really like this NYM line and I think they are ready for a breakout game.

Anyone upping their bet tonight on the Mets?

ploben · 04-24-09, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by tbill11

So a little confused on this system. I'm on the Mets today, but are people still chasing the Phillies runline since they lost yesterday?

No. All we are chasing is the money, not a specific team. We play the RL on the biggest ML fav of the day. Phils yesturday, Mets today.

Slanina · 04-24-09, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by ploben

I am really like this NYM line and I think they are ready for a breakout game.

Anyone upping their bet tonight on the Mets?

I kept the normal 10 for the chase. But put 50 more on the mets as a side bet. First time I bet with santana, so hopefully he doesnt screw me. Or they give him more than 2 damn runs for support. Just for kicks I checked out like 4-5 sites for the moneyline. One site sportsinteraction has it at -305. That is criminal.

tbill11 · 04-24-09, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by ploben

No. All we are chasing is the money, not a specific team. We play the RL on the biggest ML fav of the day. Phils yesturday, Mets today.

Edited: Alright I got it. Sounds like a great system and obviously it's working. Thanks for the help!

ploben · 04-24-09, 04:48 PM

-305 is criminal....its forcing action on the RL which I don't think is all that bad.

ploben · 04-24-09, 04:49 PM

RL back up to -130...hope you got it at the discount

Slanina · 04-24-09, 05:09 PM

Now bodog has it at -310. I checked it at 5 and was 280. Crazy.

Slanina · 04-24-09, 08:23 PM

Be nice if Reyes wouldn't leave 42 people on base per at bat.

ploben · 04-24-09, 09:26 PM

Just about to go to bed and enjoy a nice payday from the Mets and wham...2 run shot.....FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK

Slanina · 04-24-09, 09:30 PM

Hahahaha. Did that just happen. Remind me next time if I ever do a side bet that it's 5 innings. ****k bullpens. Amazing how I bet on a team and a relief pitcher who hasn't given up a run this year gives up two in the 9th for a 1 run game.

ploben · 04-24-09, 09:33 PM

Dropped and extra 10 on them. Now I gota chase 10 more than i should be. Patience man...I gotta learn it.

Looks like Mets tomorrow too...at least its + money

Slanina · 04-24-09, 09:34 PM

And it's final. Already chasing to a game 3 and I just started 4 days ago. The best part is I was so close to taking the moneyline for 50 as my sidebet. But the payout was like 17. God damnit.

ploben · 04-24-09, 09:35 PM

Seems like everytime we get a new person on the thread we end up going a couple games.

trinitiy · 04-24-09, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by ploben

Seems like everytime we get a new person on the thread we end up going a couple games.

Slanina · 04-24-09, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by ploben

Seems like everytime we get a new person on the thread we end up going a couple games.

Considering the W-L record is 5-9. This would only make sense.

Marvelboy · 04-25-09, 07:01 AM

Mets again it looks like on my book no line for the runline yet but Mets are 1.53 moneyline ( -188)

ploben · 04-25-09, 07:26 AM

Originally posted by Marvelboy

Mets again it looks like on my book no line for the runline yet but Mets are 1.53 moneyline ( -188)

I got them at +105 last night...Bookmaker's got them at +110 right now

Slanina · 04-25-09, 10:09 AM

So I really have to chase to a game 3 with a pitcher who has more walks than strikeouts this year and an ERA over 8 and hasn't pitched in almost two weeks. This should be a fun game. Hope the mets score 9 runs today.

coreygman · 04-25-09, 10:47 AM

ya looks like mets in my book to, and its at +105!!

NYM M PELFREY -R -185 u10EV -1½ +105

HarleyRoadKing · 04-25-09, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by ploben

Just about to go to bed and enjoy a nice payday from the Mets and wham...2 run shot.....FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK

No kidding..LOL.. I was sitting live at the Marlins-Phillies game watching the damn Marlins closer shit the bed in the 9th... Kept vigil on the scoreboard to see the Mets go into the 9th up 4-1, then watch the scoreboard light up to 4-3 final... It's almost as if the friggin Mets closer called my bookie to see who I had the -1.5 run line and said to himself, "let me stick it to ole Harley" and we still get to win the game...

I FVVCKIN HATE LOSING LIKE THAT....

coreygman · 04-25-09, 11:06 AM

ya we all did get screwed last night

BettorBob · 04-25-09, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by brooks85

hey betterbob thanks for the work earlier on backtesting this. Do you have any information stored on NHL lines. I was thinking how this system would work for the nhl.

I'm afraid I don't have any NHL data. Sorry. I think this system would be just as risky on NHL as MLB, so I wouldn't recommend that anyone try it.

Slanina · 04-25-09, 01:30 PM

Now this is what im talking about!

do5000 · 04-25-09, 01:40 PM

so far so good. but lets not get too excited until the 9th is over.

brooks85 · 04-25-09, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by BettorBob

I'm afraid I don't have any NHL data. Sorry. I think this system would be just as risky on NHL as MLB, so I wouldn't recommend that anyone try it.

Its true, system just is not worth it. It might have been great years ago if/when RLs were + money. I read your results wrong from the last test. Just betting to win 10 dollars a game, your looking at a 1200+ or - dollar loss when the chase loses. If there was 13 loses and only 824 wins at 10 dollars a win, definitely not worth it.

Slanina · 04-26-09, 12:55 AM

Appears to be Padres today. -200 with Oswalt on the mound. Followed closely are the Mets at -190. But I'll wait till I wake up in the morning and see the lines once again.

whatisit · 04-26-09, 01:27 AM

Originally posted by brooks85

Its true, system just is not worth it. It might have been great years ago if/when RLs were + money. I read your results wrong from the last test. Just betting to win 10 dollars a game, your looking at a 1200+ or - dollar loss when the chase loses. If there was 13 loses and only 824 wins at 10 dollars a win, definitely not worth it.

are you saying hte MLB system is nto worth it?

brooks85 · 04-26-09, 09:06 AM

I dont believe it is. I am going to keep tracking it.

coreygman · 04-26-09, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

Appears to be Padres today. -200 with Oswalt on the mound. Followed closely are the Mets at -190. But I'll wait till I wake up in the morning and see the lines once again.

I think you mean Peavy on the mound. Got to like the +115!

Padres are the pick for me also, beat out the mets...

SDG J PEAVY -R -200u 7½ -115 -1½ +115
NYM OL PEREZ -L -185 u9½ -115 -1½ +110

johncrud · 04-26-09, 09:25 AM

I don't think people have faith for any kind of chasing systems. Even if you are sacrificing 19 units to win 1 unit like the JM system, you still have people complaining about it.

If you do a 6 game chase on ML, the system is flawless to date.... the question is do you have the balls to do it. of course if you are planning to use a chase system, make sure your bankroll can support several series losses.

do5000 · 04-26-09, 10:05 AM

todays bet should be NYM, not SD (if we go by opening lines).
mets opened at -185 and SD opened at -171.

i'm on the mets today, hopefully they can do it twice in a row.

ps johncrud, you meant if you do a 6 game chase on RL right? (not ML)

johncrud · 04-26-09, 10:13 AM

You can check out page 8 where BettorBob posted his results for the past years. RL has lost 10 times while -1 RL has lost 2 times. Then I went and analyze ML myself and found that it has yet to lose..

ploben · 04-26-09, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by do5000

todays bet should be NYM, not SD (if we go by opening lines).
mets opened at -185 and SD opened at -171.

This is true. The NYM line has fallen but was the board favorite when the lines opened.

do5000 · 04-26-09, 10:18 AM

thats interesting, i didnt know.
im guessing you'd need a much bigger bankroll since taking a heavy fav would win very little (prob $10 to win $4). so at the end of the chase it can get really expensive.

but i do agree that as long as you stick with it, it will work.
curious to know if those 10 and 2 losses would have been erased on the 7th game.