Samrock's 2013 TDK 2.0 RL Chase

[tr4sh]

So, I jumped off Mets/CWS today and of course they both pull it out... oh well that's the way the cookie crumbles

[RaRhythm24]

Can't believe how the cws game went, that was crazy! Congrats on the win.

[samrock67]

Just did some number-crunching as I think about how to approach choosing series for the 2.0 RL...

- dogs are winning at a 42% clip this year
- 72 % of those wins are by 2 or more...this translates into a 30% chance that in any game, the underdog will win by 2 or more
- When an underdog wins by 2 or more, 71.2% of the time it will be on the road- so road dogs are significantly outperforming home dogs

I'm crunching all kinds of numbers, looking for interesting patterns...maybe I'll find something to go on, who knows...

[illisdre]

ya.. so much for the old saying of bet on Home dogs.

the away -1.5 really proves its value .. like today with CWS. although that was pretty messed.

I'm gonna start following this thread.
my own picks have been terrible terrible this year.

[illisdre]

i cant wait to see the lines tomorrow ...

[Seeing Stars]

I was only stating my first thoughts on AStros and MArlins, I am studying and listening /reading....

I follow the Rangers locally so its my comfort zone right now, NHL has taken my time so far. With that said I will side bet on them while I'm watching on here

TX/BOS OVER 8 1/2 1u (-110)


STL -1.5
TEX -1.5
WAS -1.5
on it.....

[samrock67]

6/6/13
TDK Record: update pending
TDK RL 1.0 Record: 205-18, +233.2u
TDK RL 2.0 Record: 6-0, +8.29u
Thread Record: 116-12, +89.23u


6/5/13 RECAP
RL 1.0 Plays
CWS -1.5 8u WINNER +13u
NYM -1.5 4u WINNER +5u
NYM -1.5 4u WINNER +5u
KC -1.5 2u WINNER +1.96u
CWS -1.5 2u WINNER +4u
StL -1.5 1u LOSS
Oak -1.5 1u WINNER +1.29u
Tex -1.5 1u LOSS

RL 2.0 Plays
Was -1.5 2u LOSS
Oak -1.5 2u WINNER +1.58u

[samrock67]

6/6/13

RL 1.0 Plays
StL -1.5 2u
Tex -1.5 2u
Atl -1.5 1u
Atl -1.5 1u
NYY -1.5 1u

RL 2.0 Plays
#5: Was -1.5 4u
#8: Bos -1.5 1u
#9: Oak -1.5 1u
#10: Atl -1.5 1u
#11: NYY -1.5 1u
#12: Col -1.5 1u
#13: Det -1.5 1u 1:08pm EST start

Optional: NYM -1.5 1u(the thinking here is that as much as I don't think the Mets will get swept twice in a row by the Marlins, you really never know with this team, they're incredibly inconsistent. They're also very mediocre against the Marlins at home- roughly .500 over the last 6-7 years. So, even though everyone says the Marlins and Astros should be on auto-fade, I hesitate to pull the trigger on this- I think this is a no-play for me, which means they'll definitely cover LOL).

Spreadsheet can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=0

[samrock67]

Game 1's have been added, spreadsheet is updated

[samrock67]

Game 1's for RL 1.0 have been added, cards are now final.

BOL today gentlemen

[252pirates]

Im just catching on to this tread...so if you play an underdog you are taking the alt line at -1.5 still?

[mathcapper]

Im just catching on to this tread...so if you play an underdog you are taking the alt line at -1.5 still?

It's your call. Since they are underdogs and getting plus money anyway, I believe Samrock will just take them on the ML often times since the goal is to win your 1 unit at the least the ML will work.

[samrock67]

Im just catching on to this tread...so if you play an underdog you are taking the alt line at -1.5 still?

as mathcapper said, it is your call...but, as you can see from yesterday, there are times when you will miss out on a ton of units...

If an underdog is going to win, there's a 72% chance it's going to be by 2...so really you are always better off taking the -1.5 on an underdog.

[tr4sh]

Shouldnt that previous CWS series be a +6 unit winner?

[samrock67]

Shouldnt that previous CWS series be a +6 unit winner?

I have the line for that game from 5D @ +250...

Game 4: 8u x 2.5 = 20 units profit - 7 units lost in Games 1-3 = 13 units profit
Game 2: 2u x 2.5 = 5 units profit - 1 unit lost on Game 1 = 4 units profit

[tr4sh]

Wow didn't know the odds were that high... it hurts even more that I jumped off those 2 series haha

[illisdre]

Wow didn't know the odds were that high... it hurts even more that I jumped off those 2 series haha

you may make it back.. but don't get think it'll come as fast.
keep the patience.

[samrock67]

6/7/13
TDK Record: update pending
TDK RL 1.0 Record: 207-18, +236.15u
TDK RL 2.0 Record: 9-0, +12.73u
1.0 Record since tracking began: 118-12, +92.18u

RL 1.0 Plays
StL -1.5 2u WINNER +1.5u
Tex -1.5 2u LOSS
Atl -1.5 1u LOSS
Atl -1.5 1u LOSS
NYY -1.5 1u WINNER +1.45u

RL 2.0 Plays
#5: Was -1.5 4u POSTPONED
#8: Bos -1.5 1u WINNER +1.45u
#9: Oak -1.5 1u LOSS
#10: Atl -1.5 1u LOSS
#11: NYY -1.5 1u WINNER +1.45u
#12: Col -1.5 1u LOSS
#13: Det -1.5 1u WINNER +1.54u

[samrock67]

6/7/13

RL 1.0 Plays
Tex -1.5 4u
Atl -1.5 2u
Atl -1.5 2u
TB -1.5 1u
Bos -1.5 1u
CWS -1.5 1u
Col -1.5 1u
Tex -1.5 1u

RL 2.0 Plays
#5: Was -1.5 4u
#9: Oak -1.5 2u
#10: Atl -1.5 2u
#12: Col -1.5 2u
#14: Pit -1.5 1u
#15: Tex -1.5 1/2u**
#16: Bos -1.5 1/2u**

** indicates 5-game chase


NOTE: As you can see, I have Texas and Boston listed as half-unit bets. For these chases I will be chasing for 5 games and using a 1/2-1-2-4-8 format. You only lose an extra half unit if the series loses. There are times when looking at the pitching matchups, if I see value in the potential 5th game of the series, I will chase for 5 games. If you want to be gutsy and go 1-2-4-8-16 that is up to you, but I am perfectly happy even if the series wins on the first game and you win less than in a 4-game series.

Spreadsheet can be found here:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=1

[samrock67]

Game 1's have been added to RL 1.0, cards are final.

BOL today gentlemen.

Won't be able to post tomorrow...use today's card to help you with tomorrow's card, there won't be any new 2.0 series until Sunday for sure.

[ColdBeerHere]

damn, missed the Nats game....what the heck time did it start ???

[ColdBeerHere]

Sam, I like your take on the 5 game chase.....1/2 unit to buy one extra game is excellent.

[samrock67]

damn, missed the Nats game....what the heck time did it start ???

Game was postponed...doubt they get a game in this weekend

[kcava]

Sam, I like your take on the 5 game chase.....1/2 unit to buy one extra game is excellent.

Agree. You lose a little bit of profit if the game clears early... but great for those that are risk averse.

[samrock67]

Pittsburgh

everyone was on the cubs today LOL

[illisdre]

whats with all the low scoring .. or close games today dam

is it just me or does anyone notice that Saturdays tend to have alot of close games... and the highest scoring .. or biggest score differences occur midweek.. Tuesday-Wed.

I've personally noticed this trend. Im not sure if its accurate.

I do think perhaps there could be greater crowd influence, more motivation perhaps on friday saturday and somehow it keeps both teams tight?

then again maybe I'm wrong.

[ColdBeerHere]

ouch that was a rough night....if someone can post any new plays by TDK it would be appreciated....thanks....

[hubbard689]

Been tailing TDK's chases for a while but only somehow just saw this thread now. Results seem like it's a great success, that surprises me a little though since RL favorites are only hitting 40.5% this season. But might start tailing anyhow! The + odds really help gain some extra profit and losses aren't huge anyway.. Good work samrock

[hubbard689]

Just got a couple questions. So the RL 1.0 system is based on TDK's daily picks? and the RL 2.0 is samrock's own picks? So it's 2 seperate systems going? I think I have it mostly figured out from the spreadsheet.

[ColdBeerHere]

Just got a couple questions. So the RL 1.0 system is based on TDK's daily picks? and the RL 2.0 is samrock's own picks? So it's 2 seperate systems going? I think I have it mostly figured out from the spreadsheet.

yep

[allen0315]

i think this is the plays for today

RL 1.0 Plays
Tex -1.5 8u
Atl -1.5 4u
Atl -1.5 4u
TB -1.5 2u
Bos -1.5 1u game 1
CWS -1.5 2u
Col -1.5 2u
Tex -1.5 2u

if bos loses game 1 u play 2u on bos in game 2 today

[Yazworm91]

Doesn't TDK have a game 1 on Texas also?

[allen0315]

add
tex -1.5 game 1

Brewers -1.5 game 1

[kmc28]

i think Wash -1.5 is a 4u play today still because other games were postponed? for his other system that is. not sure about the rest

[dogs1972]

Damn I'm tired of losing