Samrock's 2013 RL Chase System(AKA Stifler 2.0)

[illisdre]

Betting 4 units

This system is running on a 1-2-4-8 system:

A Bet- Bet 1 unit
B Bet- Bet 2 units
C Bet- Bet 4 units
D Bet- Bet 8 units

oh i was not understanding this properly before...

To make this clear, betting these "Pre-defined" unit sizes will yield different profits for each series.
But factored into the size of 1-2-4-8, we will typically see "more" than one unit PROFIT when the bets win at B, C, D stage.

[samrock67]

oh i was not understanding this properly before...

To make this clear, betting these "Pre-defined" unit sizes will yield different profits for each series.
But factored into the size of 1-2-4-8, we will typically see "more" than one unit PROFIT when the bets win at B, C, D stage.

You will always see more than 1 unit profit, regardless of which bet the series wins at, provided the odds are better than +100 on that bet

[samrock67]

Boston and KC headed into extras...

is it too much to ask for another walk off grand slam...?

[ColdBeerHere]

Anything's possible when Neil Diamond's in the house !

[samrock67]

4/22/13

Current Stifler record: 42-1, +5.497u, 8 series pending
RL Record: 37-2(+60.77u), 10 series pending(-24u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 15-34
B bet: 12-15
C bet: 6-8
D bet: 4-2

4/21 RECAP
(C Bet) S2 Cle fade: Hou -1.5(+195) 4u
(C Bet) S3 NYY fade: Tor -1.5(+145) 4u WINNER +2.8u
(B Bet) S3 Bos: Bos -1.5(+135) 2u
(B Bet) S3 CHW: CHW -1.5(+135) 2u
(A Bet) P1 Fister: Det -1.5(+150) 1u
(A Bet) P2 Fister: Det -1.5(+150) 1u
(C Bet) S3 Bos: Bos -1.5(+140) 4u

Pending:
S2 Cle fade, D bet on 4/22/13
S3 Bos, D bet on 4/22/13
S3 CHW, C bet on 4/22/13
P2 Masterson, B bet on 4/22/13
P1 Hudson, B bet next start
P2 Hudson, B bet next start
P1 Buehrle, B bet next start
P2 Buehrle, B bet next start
P1 Fister, B bet next start
P2 Fister, B bet next start

[dalogester]

We need both sox to fit the shoes and cover the -1.5

[tr4sh]

wow, up 60 with 2 losses. Seems like something I need to start following... nice tweak to stifler's system

[DollarBill10]

You see the line on the Houston game??? I got +315.

Lets get it!!!

[dalogester]

dollarbill, houston isnt a play right?

[samrock67]

4/22/13

(D Bet) S2 Cle fade: CWS -1.5(+195) 8u
(D Bet) S3 Bos: Bos -1.5(+155) 8u
(C Bet) S3 CHW: CHW -1.5(+195) 4u
(B Bet) P2 Masterson: Cle -1.5(+140) 2u
(A Bet) S1 Pit fade: Phi -1.5(+205) 1u

Will update with potential plays if they get the green light from Stifler

[samrock67]

A White Sox RL win nets us 13.4 units...let's go Sox!!!

[thes0vereign]

dollarbill, houston isnt a play right?

No, the D bet is a Cleveland Indians fade, not a Houston chase. Chicago White Sox are the play, with -1.5 sitting around +200 on most books.

[samrock67]

There is an A Bet Tor fade that was added. I can't post it neatly on my phone but Ill be back home in 20-40 min to post it. Just giving everyone the heads up.

[DollarBill10]

No, the D bet is a Cleveland Indians fade, not a Houston chase. Chicago White Sox are the play, with -1.5 sitting around +200 on most books.

Oh shoot...I just copied and pasted...well maybe Houton can pull one out since I already bet it.

[dalogester]

LA Angels -1.5 is also a pick per stiflers most recent post.

[J.M. Disciple]

Are you updating unit total day to day or waiting for series to be all the way over before taking away the 15 units?

[samrock67]

I know the Baltimore game(Tor fade) already started, but here:

(D Bet) S2 Cle fade: CWS -1.5(+195) 8u
(D Bet) S3 Bos: Bos -1.5(+155) 8u
(C Bet) S3 CHW: CHW -1.5(+195) 4u
(B Bet) P2 Masterson: Cle -1.5(+140) 2u
(A Bet) S1 Pit fade: Phi -1.5(+205) 1u
(A Bet) S3 Tor fade: Bal -1.5(+165) 1u
(A Bet) S3 Tex fade: LAA -1.5(+175) 1u

[samrock67]

Are you updating unit total day to day or waiting for series to be all the way over before taking away the 15 units?

I update the unit total day to day, but as you can see, I list how many units are currently "in play" while there are still pending series.

[ColdBeerHere]

I missed the boston bet.....as a ny fan they pretty much constantly screw me....not jinxin any thi ng but would make sense if thats a winner

[ColdBeerHere]

I missed philly and balt too....grr

[dalogester]

dont worry bostons already stranded 2 runners twice in scoring position with 1 out.

[ColdBeerHere]

told ya...it never fails...I bet for boston and they lose...I bet against them and they win...I forget to bet them and they win.....

this applies to both the red sox and the celtics.

[Jellybeans]

told ya...it never fails...I bet for boston and they lose...I bet against them and they win...I forget to bet them and they win.....

this applies to both the red sox and the celtics.

HaHaHa...lets all fade ColdBeerHere lol
Pretty sure that is not the case, just seems like it lol.
But nice one on the Red Sox...just need the White one right now!

[dalogester]

sigh sox couldnt get it going and blew that lead. not only lost C bet for stiflers system but lost huge chance at a nice win for this one.

[dalogester]

In other news, Napoli is slowly becoming my favorite player.

[samrock67]

How the White Sox are the favorite for tonight's game is beyond me. Lets hope this 4 game losing streak serves as motivation for them to kick some ass for tonight's D bet.

[samrock67]

4/23/13

Current Stifler record: 45-1, +8.497u, 8 series pending
RL Record: 38-3(+51.17u), 11 series pending(-19u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 15-37
B bet: 12-16
C bet: 6-9
D bet: 5-3

4/22 RECAP
(D Bet) S2 Cle fade: CWS -1.5(+195) 8u
(D Bet) S3 Bos: Bos -1.5(+155) 8u WINNER +5.4u
(C Bet) S3 CHW: CHW -1.5(+195) 4u
(B Bet) P2 Masterson: Cle -1.5(+140) 2u
(A Bet) S1 Pit fade: Phi -1.5(+205) 1u
(A Bet) S3 Tor fade: Bal -1.5(+165) 1u
(A Bet) S3 Tex fade: LAA -1.5(+175) 1u

Pending:
S3 CHW, D bet on 4/23/13
S1 Pit fade, B bet on 4/23/13
S3 Tor fade, B bet on 4/23/13
S3 Tex fade, B bet on 4/23/13
P2 Masterson, C bet next start
P1 Hudson, B bet on 4/24/13
P2 Hudson, B bet on 4/24/13
P1 Buerhle, B bet on 4/25/13
P2 Buerhle, B bet on 4/25/13
P1 Fister, B bet next start
P2 Fister, B bet next start

[samrock67]

4/23/13

(D Bet) CHW: CHW -1.5(+165) 8u
(B Bet) S1 Pit fade: Phi -1.5(+130) 2u
(B Bet) S3 Tor fade: Bal -1.5(+200) 2u
(B Bet) S3 Tex fade: LAA -1.5(+200) 2u
(A Bet) S2 LAA: LAA -1.5(+200) 1u
(A Bet) S3 Det: Det -1.5(+110) 1u

Alternate lines for Bal: ML(-106), +1.5(-170)
Alternate lines for LAA: ML(-104), +1.5(-165)

[dalogester]

We really need a White sox win by 2 runs or this and stiflers systems are gonna take a hit.

[samrock67]

We really need a White sox win by 2 runs or this and stiflers systems are gonna take a hit.

Let's hope they catch fire because we're going to have 2 B bets on them Thursday night when Buerhle takes the mound...

[J.M. Disciple]

Only hitting 37% so far with your record, but up a ton of units .

I wish flat betting were profitable with this system, but need nearly +200 odds to show a profit. I am just watching and enjoying everyone here making money. I am going to wait until system has been backtested before I jump in though. Not too desperate right now.

Thing I like about this system is you really have to follow it for how it is laid out. Most systems deal with favorites so there are multiple ways to play it via labby, chase, or a mixture of flat betting and being selective. This one you lose a ton of value if you choose to labby or try and flat bet. Doing a great job so far and hope it shows a profit of 100+ units at seasons end.

[samrock67]

Only hitting 37% so far with your record, but up a ton of units .

I wish flat betting were profitable with this system, but need nearly +200 odds to show a profit. I am just watching and enjoying everyone here making money. I am going to wait until system has been backtested before I jump in though. Not too desperate right now.

Thing I like about this system is you really have to follow it for how it is laid out. Most systems deal with favorites so there are multiple ways to play it via labby, chase, or a mixture of flat betting and being selective. This one you lose a ton of value if you choose to labby or try and flat bet. Doing a great job so far and hope it shows a profit of 100+ units at seasons end.

Yea, I like the way this system runs too. As soon as I finish the school year and take my board exam I'm going to do some heavy backtesting. I'm also working on a couple of new systems that utilize the RL, hope too see some good trends when I backtest.

It just seems like this system, or more specifically chases that follow the RL, fly under the radar because favorites really don't have a huge impact...I mean just knowing that when a team wins, 70% of the time it will be by 2 or more...how has someone NOT gone to town on developing a system that takes advantage of that??

[samrock67]

Going by the average number of series in Stifler's backtest and using the current trend of this system, here is potentially how things could turn out...

Overall Record: 349-27
Based on an average series yield of +2u(and it's slightly over that right now at 2.08), the 2013 season would yield a profit of..

+293 units

Very curious to see how the season pans out...

[samrock67]

White Sox-Indians game has been postponed due to rain

[J.M. Disciple]

i think you understand, but its not favorites that win 70% of the time. I believe they are close to 60% and dogs around 40% of the time. Then to take it a step further each side only wins by 1 run 11-12% of the time. So break down for the dogs is 40% of the time there will be an upset and favorite will lose. Of that 40% 11% of the time the dog will win by only 1 run. The other 89% the dog will win by 2 runs or more. The favorite will win 60% of the time and of that 60% they will only win by 1 run 12% of the time. All based on the article I believe you posted it earlier in this thread.

Basically ML is a suckers bet it seems based on odds to gain extra 11% of 60% if that makes sense. I would only use ML for parlays since they are risky as it is.

When you do your backtest do you mind writing down the scores? Once you have all the scores and games recorded in excel its much easier to test different betting strategies. For example, may be able to get +1 or -1 RL instead for those who want lower reward, but closer to 50% win rate.

Thanks again for the hard work and good luck on your exam.