Well I've watched the tape and I really like the play so I'm sticking to it. You guys can tell me I told you so if it loses lol. I watched Tito's and Hamill's last 4 fights and it just made me feel more confident with my initial presumption. Have to go with what I've capped. I think the Rashad fight was a solid indicator of what I can expect from Tito in this fight. Rashad is IMO a better wrestler, striker and significantly faster than Hamill. Tito was able to stuff almost all of his takedowns (other than when he grabbed the fence twice and in the last 10 seconds of the 3rd round). As well, Hamill doesn't set up his takedowns. They are very telegraphed and easy to sprawl against. Against Jardine, he rarely tried for the takedown. When he did, he was stuff around half the times with ease, and the ones he did succeed with were when Jardine was in a bad position to defend against it and was dragged to the floor. He was then able to work back to his feet pretty quickly. I don't think Hamill will be able to bully takedowns against Ortiz, nor control him in the clinch. As well, Tito was able to take Rashad down using the double multiple times - No one has ever really tried to take Hamill down, so I think its a little premature to think he has good TDD.

As for the striking matchup, Hamill showed that he still has a lot of limitations in his standup. He doesn't throw combos and relies more on winging hooks and single body kicks. I think he will be tentative to throw that body kick as Tito was able to catch the leg of a much faster Rashad a couple times which lead to easy takedowns. I think Tito has the more refined striking and should be able to score more on the feet. Tito also utilized the leg kick well in both the Rashad and Forrest II fights, and Hamill has always struggled checking kicks since his lead leg is usually exposed from his wide stance.

The worry for me in this fight is the latter end of the fight. Tito was 1 minute away from beating Forrest again in their second fight until he started to gas very late in the 2nd round. Forrest was able to sweep him at that point and steal the round. It was Tito's up to that point. Same with his fight vs Rashad. He won the first 2 rounds convincingly and was on his way to winning the 3rd round until he gassed in the last 3:00 and allowed Rashad to dictate the fight as well as secure a takedown at the very end to steal the round. Hamill's gas tank isn't all that great either, but he is a grinder and could definitely steal the 3rd round if Tito's conditioning is on par with what he has shown in his last couple fights.

I will also add a play on Guymon. I wasn't impressed at all with Roberts in his fight vs. Petz. He usually puts up a great first round using his superior grappling, but fades very quickly. Guymon is more well rounded, has solid power and an underrated ground game. He should be able to keep it standing in the last 2 rounds to earn a decision or possibly a stoppage. I think he is worth a play as a small dog.

UFC 121:

Ortiz (+146) 1.5 units to win 2.19 units
Ortiz by Decision (+253) 0.5 units to win 1.265 units
Guymon (+130) 1.5 units to win 1.95 units

More to come.