Originally Posted by
MonkeyF0cker
When you talk about beating a closing number, you're talking about high volume books like Pinnacle, Cris, Oly, or Matchbook. In these cases, it's not as much the linesmaker that's making that determination as it is the market. These books have high enough volume that their markets are fairly efficient and are determined by the betting public. If the market has enough volume to be deemed efficient, then the no-vig closing number is assumed to be the true odds of the game. If you beat the no-vig closer in these markets, you have an edge. You can beat the closer by a couple of different methods. One is by handicapping the games by way of a probability model. You find what you assume to be numbers that give you value. The people that use this method are the ones that initiate the steam. They find value in the current lines offered and the linesmakers subsequently move the line to take away that perceived value. If your model is profitable, you'll be able to beat the closer more often than not. It doesn't mean you'll find value in every line obviously. The method that Nicky subscribes to is simply steam chasing. After sharps have bet particular sides and moved the lines, there are other books that possibly aren't as efficient and don't move on air (moving their numbers along with books of higher efficiency). You can bet those numbers at these types of books. That doesn't mean that if you bet a side or total early that the line won't move against you. The problem using this method is that books recognize this and will limit or cut you fairly quickly. Eventually, you aren't left with many options especially in the current offshore environment where reliable books are becoming less prevalent.