Jackson Holliday Odds & Bets for 2024: Best MLB Futures Props for Baseball's Top Prospect

Major League Baseball's No. 1 prospect is off to a rough start in the big leagues with the Baltimore Orioles, and we're looking at Jackson Holliday's odds and our top picks for the future star.

The Baltimore Orioles sent a jolt through the organization on April 10 when they called up 2022 first overall pick and MLB's No. 1 prospect, Jackson Holliday. However, it hasn't been smooth sailing thus far. 

Baltimore is one of the favorites in the World Series odds, but its recent offensive surge is mostly due to fellow rookie Colton Cowser, as Holliday has just one hit through his first 30 professional at-bats.

Holliday owns a 50% strikeout rate and has walked in just 6.3% of his plate appearances, failing to set the table for the Orioles' MLB MVP odds contenders, Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman.

The 20-year-old was the preseason favorite to win American League Rookie of the Year, though he's now listed in the four spot on the oddsboard at a price significantly longer than those of Cowser, Evan Carter, and Wyatt Langford.

Let's take a look at those MLB Rookie of the Year odds and the other futures markets Holliday's arrival is set to affect.

Here are our best Jackson Holliday odds, predictions, and MLB picks (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Jackson Holliday props for 2024

Rookie of the Year odds

(AL Rookie of the Year odds as of April 22; see our full look at the MLB Rookie of the Year odds)

Holliday was the preseason favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year, but he was leapfrogged by two Texas Rangers youngsters when the Orioles announced the 2022 first overall pick would begin the season in Triple-A.

Needless to say, Holliday torched minor-league pitching. He owned a .333/.482/.595 slash line and hit two home runs across 56 plate appearances. But perhaps the most impressive stat from his brief Triple-A stint this season was his 21.4% walk rate compared to his 14.3% strikeout rate.

Unfortunately, Holliday has failed to take those elite on-base skills to the majors as the Orioles' No. 9 hitter. If he can get on base at a good clip in the majors, his odds will shorten to a number closer to those of the favorites. However, he's an extremely risky Rookie of the Year bet based on his performance in the majors through nine games.

Orioles 2024 futures odds

World Series odds

(World Series odds as of April 22)

Despite the fact that Holliday has absolutely stunk, the Orioles' World Series odds have shortened since his arrival.

If Holliday does live up to his potential this season, it gives Orioles manager Brandon Hyde more options for the top of his lineup when the postseason arrives.

Holliday has hit mostly out of the nine-hole in the order while making a couple of appearances as the No. 8 hitter. It's difficult to know where he'll bat if he can quickly adjust to major-league pitching, but the benefit of calling him up so early is that he and the Orioles have plenty of time to figure it out.

These odds have already shortened without Holliday playing a role at all, so this may be the best time to buy before fans and media members alike begin dubbing the Orioles the best team in the league.

American League MVP odds

(MLB MVP odds as of April 22)

Holliday's arrival to the bigs doesn't just affect his own futures markets, though. He plays alongside two AL MVP contenders, and if he's able to get on base, it'll help their cases.

Gunnar Henderson is the Orioles' leadoff hitter, and his chances to rack up RBIs will rely mostly on the ability of the bottom of the order to get on base. Cowser and third baseman Jordan Westburg are already pulling their weight, leading to Henderson rising up the oddsboard. If Holliday can follow suit, Henderson could close in on Soto.

Rutschman will benefit similarly as the team's No. 2 hitter, and his relatively underwhelming counting stats were one of the big factors holding him back from truly contending in the 2023 AL MVP race. If the superstar catcher can combine his trademark elite defense with 100-plus runs and 100-plus RBIs, he could make some real noise in this market.

American League Cy Young odds

(AL Cy Young Award Odds as of April 22)

OK, you're probably wondering how the heck Holliday's arrival could possibly alter the Cy Young for either of Baltimore's contending starters. Well, I'll tell you how.

Corbin Burnes, who serves as the favorite in the AL, relies heavily on his ability to induce weak contact and, more specifically, ground balls. The player Holliday will replace, Urias, has been a minus-defender for essentially his entire career. Now, Burnes has a young, athletic second baseman playing behind him.

Along with Holliday's ability to save some would-be base hits via his range and to turn double plays with Henderson, his bat should eventually put Orioles pitchers in a better position to rack up more wins.

Wins are a bit of a forgotten stat when it comes to Cy Young grading, as most voters have recognized that they're barely tied to an individual pitcher's performance. However, they can serve as somewhat of an unofficial tiebreaker if the race is tight toward the end of the season.

As it stands, Burnes' biggest competition on the Cy Young oddsboard appears to be Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal and Kansas City Royals southpaw Cole Ragans. The latter will surely struggle to record too many wins, as his 0-2 record through five starts suggests. The Royals simply aren't good enough to put him in a position to finish with a total of around 15 wins. Skubal is in a similar spot, though the Tigers are expected to perform much better this year than in seasons past.

The moral of the story is that good players make a team better (go figure). Holliday helps not only his own cause - and the cause of those bettors who back him - but those of his teammates, too.

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