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Comment -
Ungur should have taken that 2nd set, but thems the breaks.Comment -
Burnie Challenger
Parlay: Lu + Sugita [-130]
Lu is taking on another of the local Aussies in Matt Reid. Lu is certainly the better talent by far here with a 3rd round showing in Melbourne already and a cuople Challenger titles on this surface in 2011 + a handful of solid wins at the ATP level on hard courts as well. Sugita is my guy again today. He's up against Zhang who beat him on an indoor surface last year, but as for current form - Sugita is a notch above. He's had a rock solid start to 2012 on this surface and Zhang generally does little outside of the Far East - so Sugita should have every chance to win this.
Mitchell +100
Liked his toughness in outlasting Duckworth yesterday. He gets Yang here who looks beatable having already lost this year to American teen Dennis Kudla. Mitchell has a good shot here to make a run in this tournament, I think. He'll need to cut down on the double faults.Comment -
2.1.12
Parlay: Jaziri [Kazan Challenger] + Kohlschreiber [Montpellier] [-133]
Jaziri draws Marti who is really a clay courter out of his element here. His win in the 1st round here against an unranked opponent was just his 2nd win on an indoor hard court in seven tries. Jaziri rolled Kravchuk in the 1st round and this is a match that someone on the rise such as himself cannot lose. Kohlschreiber has had a solid start to the 2012 season with a semifinal appearance in Brisbane and a 4th round showing at the Aussie Open. He draws a home standing Frenchman in Roger-Vasselin. ERV can stick around here if his serve is on, but the better overall game belongs to Kohlschreiber. His record on the surface isn't outstanding, but most of his losses have come to high quality competition.
ATP Montpellier: Davydenko +215
Whaaaa? Yeah. Time for a Donkey ride. This just seems a prime flop spot for Gasquet who normally shows up the tournament after the Australian Open without the greatest of results. And if you look back even during a wretched 2011 season, Davydenko was very competitive on indoor surfaces as he's been for most of his career. May not pan out, but I think the Donkey at least scares Gasquet for three sets.
ATP Zagreb: Berrer +140
Berrer draws the hometown hero in Ljubicic, but Old Man River hasn't played well at this tournament since it switched from carpet to the hard indoor suface. In fact, he hasn't lasted past the 2nd round in three straight trips here. Berrer meanwhile has turned this into a home court advantage with back-2-back finals appearances here. Ljubicic had to work harder than expected to trip up K.Beck in three. He's certainly capable of overpowering with his serve, but given Berrer's recent success here - worth a roll at the nice price.Comment -
Parlays: 3-3 [-0.05]
Totals: 1-0 [+1.00]
Dogs: 3-1 [+4.10]
Favorites: 0-0 [+0.00]
Challengers: 1-1 [-0.05]
Got Mitchell pending for the end of the night going into tomorrow. Pretty good day overall. Parlays were real nice.Comment -
BOL to you man. i like some of these..
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Vina Del Mar Parlay: Montanes + Andujar [-115]
Montanes showed well enough in his 1st up here in a straight sets win. He draws Da Silva who rallied to beat Gonzalez who had dominated him until mid-way through the 2nd set. There is a clear class gap here with Da Silva being a Challenger level type and Montanes proving to be a solid dirt baller at the ATP level. If Montanes is consistent with his overall game, he wins. It's first up for Andujar who should welcome to the return to his favorite surface. He draws Gil. Gil has won the last three meetings, but they have not met in almost two years. Andujar has become a much more accomplished clay courter since. Last year alone, he made three ATP finals on this surface and won a title. Gil still mixes it up between this level and the Challenger level and is just a notch or so below Andujar if Andujar plays up to his normal skill level.Comment -
what u think ab haase out right to win?Comment -
Haase is a cut above Bachinger, I think, but his consistency last season was poor. He doesn't seem to be particularly great on this surface either. I don't know, I think I'd like to see another match from him here before backing him at this sort of price.Comment -
and ur oppinion on the seppi/melzer match seems odd... with that lineComment -
Seppi is certainly capable of an upset. Think Melzer is over priced here for sure.Comment -
thats exactly what i was thinkingComment -
Been watching this Marti/Jaziri match.. been absolutely fukkin awful.Comment -
Yep. Jaziri should be ashamed about to drop to this schmuck on this surface. FYI, I'm probably due for a rancid day somewhere soon ... could be today.Comment -
Gasquet number is getting absolutely pounded. Davydenko now out to +285.Comment -
Leo Mayer over Chardy...? -105
Mayer had a good first round win against Giraldo 7-6 6-1. Jeremy with Prodon had some risk especially in the first set when Prodon had the ball to go 5-3 and service. Chardy lost very few points with first serve, but their first serves in was only 48%. Leo is serving with better percentage and I see him more solid than the french. Look out, the french man actually is not a stupid on Clay as it could seem, he is 122 win/86 loss in career, but Leo just obtains his results on this surface (181/105) and I think will fight and win this one.Comment -
All I know is, fade Marti next round, what an awful match.Comment -
I smell the rancid day. Fade alert on this guy.Comment -
Wow. Andujar definitely looks like he hasn't played on clay in months. Sheesh. Should have hedged out on Gil knowing how shitty this day has gone. So Berrer or bust! At least he's looking decent in the 1st.
Will be looking at Burnie again for this evening to turn my frown upside down.
Comment -
ATP Doubles Vina Del Mar: Souza-Zeballos -160
They face the Chilean duo of Capdeville-Massu. The Chileans did team up together once last year with good results on the Challenger level, but the more accomplished doubles players are Souza-Zeballos. Zeballos has already won a Challenger clay title in doubles this season with a different partner. Souza teamed up with Mello at the Australian Open with the team going to the 3rd round. Souza played a lot of doubles in 2011 w/different partners and mixed results. He even teamed with Massu once. Doubles is obviously less taxing than singles, but I'm still questioning what Massu is doing besides coming out to play in front of a home crowd. We'll see if they pull something out of a bag of tricks here, but I think Zeballos-Souza are appropriately set as favorites. Trying this one.Comment -
Well at least Berrer kept me from going 0-fer!Comment -
Burnie Challenger
Mitchell -130
Riding with the young buck yet again today as he draws Wang. Wang whipped up on Aussie local Look yesterday while Mitchell fought well in straights to down Yang. Wang is a serviceable Challenger level guy on this surface, but again does more of his better work in the Far East. Mitchell should be focused here with the semifinals in sight.
Groth +160
Groth draws fellow Aussie Millman. The two met last year in the Caloundra Challenger with Millman prevailing in three, 7-5 in the final set. Millman rallied from a set down to route Feeney yesterday. Groth got a free pass when Istomin withdrew. The big key here is serve where Groth can be absolutely dominating. He had 18 aces in his opener here and allowed just one break opp. Millman cannot match that, but he can have an efficient serve. I think if Groth brings that A+ serve, he'll have a chance.Comment -
Parlays: 3-5 [-2.53]
Totals: 1-0 [+1.00]
Dogs: 4-2 [+4.50]
Favorites: 0-0 [+0.00]
Challengers: 1-1 [-0.05]
Doubles: 1-0 [+1.00]
-----------------------
Total: 10-8 [+3.92]
Updated through the Doubles winner. Hopefully the worm has turned for the day with two straight wins after a shit start.Comment -
Check out this interview with Mitchell after his first round win;
Particularly the bits where he speaks about how he could have beaten Isner at Aus Open if but for a couple of better choices at crucial times. How 'easy' he felt it was to beat Kukushkin, and how he thinks everyone from 5 down are already within his capability to beat.
Just love his self belief and confidence. And without a hint of arrogance.
He talks about being in the top 100 this year like it's really a goal he has already ticked off in his head and he just doesn't want to sound like a dick stating how far he really believes he can go.
Says he is playing Coloundra next week... think I'll ride this Mitchell train for that event too all going well.
.Comment -
F'er sucked ass tonight.Comment -
Yeah, 14 double faults I think (as you mentioned might happen). And a few at bad times.
He will win tournies at this level if he can get that serve under control though.
He said he hasn't been able to do as much practice as normal in the lead up to this, due to bad weather at home, so hopefully the match practice here, and getting out of Burnie 2 days early, will set him up for a big go at it in Coloundra next week.
Good luck with Groth..Comment -
Kazan Challenger Parlay: Zopp + Bemelmans [-115]
Zopp beat his Finnish opponent three times in 2011 and has looked pretty good early in 2012. Bemelmans is in good form on this surface against Maiceras who is not on his favorite surface.Comment -
I feel it's going to be a good day today. Lots of bets I like today:
Nieminen -2.5
Del Bonis +4
J.Sousa +3.5
Bogomolov (-125)
Zemlja +4.5Comment -
Split the Burnie Challenger picks.
Parlays: 3-5 [-2.53]
Totals: 1-0 [+1.00]
Dogs: 4-2 [+4.50]
Favorites: 0-0 [+0.00]
Challengers: 2-2 [+0.25]
Doubles: 1-0 [+1.00]
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Total: 11-9 [+4.22]Comment -
People are buying out Lacko. He will be quite a favourite until match starts, so worth waiting if you go with Bogo
Comment -
ATP Zagreb: Baghdatis-Kubot Over 21.5 [-120]
Baghdatis seems to have a penchant for playing some close sets even against opponents he should overpower. His low 1st serve percentage always gives his opponents looks at this 2nd serve and that should mean Kubot could keep this close even if it's a straight setter.
Parlay: Karlovic + Youzhny [-137]
Expecting the good doctor Ivo to over power Sela today. His serve was solid in his opener and Sela doesn't match well with power players on quicker surfaces. Youzhny draws the youngster Zemlja. Zemlja has some talent, but his overall look is that of a player who doesn't regularly win against ATP tour vets. Youzhny was decent in his opener and needs to serve well to supplement his solid return game. Might be a close set in this one, maybe even a set to Zemlja, but I think Youzhny survives in the end.
ATP Montpellier: Mahut +135
Pretty even match-up with Mayer, but Mayer's stats on this indoor surface are poor. So taking the home standing Frenchman who I think is better suited to the surface so long as his serve wins him some cheap points.
ATP Zagreb: Lacko +115
I'm officially not on the Bogmolov bandwagon. His switch to Russian loyalties seemed to be indicated last year in his indoor game where he played his best in Russia and was so-so elsewhere. Lacko has looked good to start the year. He was tested by Starace in his opener, but that should help him in what could be a tight one today. Lacko's serve looked super solid vs. Starace.Comment -
like the karlovic/youz parlayComment
