Noober's tennis picks

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  • blackf1re
    SBR Sharp
    • 01-31-10
    • 487

    #106
    Originally posted by noober
    .0344 units
    A win is a win.
    Comment
    • noober
      SBR MVP
      • 10-23-09
      • 2012

      #107
      Originally posted by blackf1re
      A win is a win.
      Comment
      • noober
        SBR MVP
        • 10-23-09
        • 2012

        #108
        Originally posted by Nard Dog
        Actually, he is just part of his crew for the grass-court season.
        It has officialy been announced that Peter McNanamara is his coach now and he would no longer work with Peter Lundgren.
        Comment
        • noober
          SBR MVP
          • 10-23-09
          • 2012

          #109
          Only one play for today:

          Davydenko over Becker at 1.826 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

          Probability: ~65%

          I think there is some over reaction to his injury.
          Comment
          • noober
            SBR MVP
            • 10-23-09
            • 2012

            #110
            Originally posted by noober
            Only one play for today:

            Davydenko over Becker at 1.826 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

            Probability: ~65%

            I think there is some over reaction to his injury.
            Becker won 6-3 6-4

            Daily record: 0-1 for -1 unit
            So far: 16-20 for +3.43 units
            Comment
            • noober
              SBR MVP
              • 10-23-09
              • 2012

              #111
              One Play for today:

              Hewitt over Becker at 1.515 (Pinnacle) 2 units

              Probability of winning: ~ 72.5%
              Comment
              • TomaCro
                SBR Sharp
                • 04-22-10
                • 255

                #112
                i go for schuettler again today.
                Comment
                • noober
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-23-09
                  • 2012

                  #113
                  Hewitt won 6-7 7-6 6-2

                  Daily record: 1-0 for +1.03 units
                  So far: 17-20 for +4.46 units
                  Comment
                  • noober
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-23-09
                    • 2012

                    #114
                    Plays for today:

                    Peter Luczak -1.5 over Michael Russell at 1.9 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

                    Probability: ~ 65%


                    Safina over Rybarikova at 1.8 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

                    Probability: ~ 65%
                    Comment
                    • JNic
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-03-10
                      • 4272

                      #115
                      o wow i forgot the other tournaments started today, i like luczak here a lot
                      Comment
                      • noober
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-23-09
                        • 2012

                        #116
                        Safina lost 7-6 4-6 4-6
                        Luczak wom 7-6 7-6 so he covers.

                        Daily record: 1-1 for -.1 units
                        So far: 18-21 for +4.36 units
                        Comment
                        • noober
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-23-09
                          • 2012

                          #117
                          Value Tennis Plays for Tomorrow

                          Didn’t have any plays in the last two days but I was able to watch some tennis and get an idea of the current form of certain players. That being said, I am going to have a play tomorrow on a player I have never seen play. But her results are enough for me to see some value:

                          Heather Watson over Alexandra Wozniak at 3.12 (Pinnacle) .7 units
                          Probability of winning: ~ 40%

                          Watson is a very promising British youngster and she already got through the qualies so she is used to the courts and the atmosphere. She defeated Pironkova in three sets which was a very good win. Just to let you know couple of weeks ago Pironkova defeated Wozniak in straight sets. In the final round of the qualies she won against Boyana Jovanosvski, which is also a good win. On the other hand, Wozniak was in a very big slump and was losing to average players. She actually had a decent French Open, but one good tournament is not enough to convince me that she is back in shape. I expect the handicap to be “Watson +3.5” at around 2.1 but I would suggest going for the money line, because if Wozniak is going to win, she will most likely do it in two sets and will cover with no problems. I am much more confident about my second pick though and see more value in it:

                          Viktoria Azarenka over Agniezska Radwanska at 2.43 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
                          Probability of winning: ~ 50%

                          I just don’t see a reason why Azarenka should be the dog here. Indeed, she has been below par in the last month but a new season is starting (the grass court season) and she had plenty of time to prepare well and forget about the disappointing performance at Roland Garros. On the other hand, Radwanska has played very bad recently and I think she is really weak mentally at the moment. Apparently, she is in some kind of conflict with her Dad and she is not showing her best. During her match with Shvedova, her Robert Radwanski was counting the unforced errors her daughter was making out loud to which Agniezska replied with “F*uck off”. After the match, she said that she is considering splitting with her father and hiring someone else to coach her, but I don’t have an update on that story. Anyway, the match tomorrow should be very even and I actually think that the Belarusian have a slight edge. The two have met five times in the past and Azarenka won three of these. But careful analysis of the head-to-head statistics shows that Azarenka has an obvious edge. Radwanska won the first match in 2006, so this has little predictive value as both players have changed significantly after that. Radwasnka also won their last meeting but I was able to watch it and can say that Azarenka was the much better player. She lost just because she got cramps and had to retire.

                          Good luck.
                          Comment
                          • beefcake
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-26-09
                            • 14029

                            #118
                            Good breakdowns as usual noober.Might take a stab at em...

                            Lets kill wimbledon...!
                            Comment
                            • Fthenorm
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 10-20-07
                              • 712

                              #119
                              Aza definitely the value, but damn she is erratic these days...and not to mention retires every other match
                              Comment
                              • noober
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-23-09
                                • 2012

                                #120
                                Originally posted by noober
                                Didn’t have any plays in the last two days but I was able to watch some tennis and get an idea of the current form of certain players. That being said, I am going to have a play tomorrow on a player I have never seen play. But her results are enough for me to see some value:

                                Heather Watson over Alexandra Wozniak at 3.12 (Pinnacle) .7 units
                                Probability of winning: ~ 40%

                                Watson is a very promising British youngster and she already got through the qualies so she is used to the courts and the atmosphere. She defeated Pironkova in three sets which was a very good win. Just to let you know couple of weeks ago Pironkova defeated Wozniak in straight sets. In the final round of the qualies she won against Boyana Jovanosvski, which is also a good win. On the other hand, Wozniak was in a very big slump and was losing to average players. She actually had a decent French Open, but one good tournament is not enough to convince me that she is back in shape. I expect the handicap to be “Watson +3.5” at around 2.1 but I would suggest going for the money line, because if Wozniak is going to win, she will most likely do it in two sets and will cover with no problems. I am much more confident about my second pick though and see more value in it:

                                Viktoria Azarenka over Agniezska Radwanska at 2.43 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
                                Probability of winning: ~ 50%

                                I just don’t see a reason why Azarenka should be the dog here. Indeed, she has been below par in the last month but a new season is starting (the grass court season) and she had plenty of time to prepare well and forget about the disappointing performance at Roland Garros. On the other hand, Radwanska has played very bad recently and I think she is really weak mentally at the moment. Apparently, she is in some kind of conflict with her Dad and she is not showing her best. During her match with Shvedova, her Robert Radwanski was counting the unforced errors her daughter was making out loud to which Agniezska replied with “F*uck off”. After the match, she said that she is considering splitting with her father and hiring someone else to coach her, but I don’t have an update on that story. Anyway, the match tomorrow should be very even and I actually think that the Belarusian have a slight edge. The two have met five times in the past and Azarenka won three of these. But careful analysis of the head-to-head statistics shows that Azarenka has an obvious edge. Radwanska won the first match in 2006, so this has little predictive value as both players have changed significantly after that. Radwasnka also won their last meeting but I was able to watch it and can say that Azarenka was the much better player. She lost just because she got cramps and had to retire.

                                Good luck.
                                Both dogs won.

                                Azarenka won 7-6 6-1
                                Watson won 6-3 6-2

                                Daily record: 2-0 for +2.91 units
                                So far: 20-21 for +7.27 units
                                Comment
                                • Yezzir
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 03-29-10
                                  • 933

                                  #121
                                  Great work!
                                  Comment
                                  • noober
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-23-09
                                    • 2012

                                    #122
                                    Some Wimbledon plays:

                                    Monfils -3.5 over Leo Mayer at 1.885 (Pinnacle) 1.2 units

                                    Probability: ~ 66%

                                    Wawrinka -4 over Istomin at 2 (Bet365) 1.2 units

                                    Probability: ~ 57%

                                    Kerber -2.5 over Mirza at 1.9 (Bet365) 1.2 units

                                    Probability: ~ 66%
                                    Comment
                                    • jojo85
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 03-22-10
                                      • 277

                                      #123
                                      I'm liking the play on Wawrinka!
                                      Comment
                                      • noober
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 10-23-09
                                        • 2012

                                        #124
                                        One more play:

                                        Hanescu over Kuznetsov at 1.6 (Pinnacle) 1.5 units

                                        Probability: ~75%
                                        Comment
                                        • noober
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 10-23-09
                                          • 2012

                                          #125
                                          Hanescu defeated Kuznetsov
                                          Monfils covered against Mayer
                                          Wawrinka lost to Istomin
                                          Kerber covered against Mirza

                                          Daily record: 3-1 for +2.15 units
                                          So far: 23-22 for +9.14
                                          Comment
                                          • ringemup
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-24-08
                                            • 2112

                                            #126
                                            had monfils on the card
                                            Comment
                                            • jojo85
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 03-22-10
                                              • 277

                                              #127
                                              hey noober, are you still betting on wimbledon? Be interested to see some of your plays!
                                              Comment
                                              • noober
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-23-09
                                                • 2012

                                                #128
                                                Two plays for tomorrow:

                                                Isner over De Bakker at 2.56 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

                                                Probability of winning: ~ 48%

                                                I think people are overestimating the fatigue factor. Isner will show up ready to play and tough to be broken.


                                                Kerber -2 over Groth at 1.93 (Pinnacle) 1.5 units

                                                Probability of winning: ~ 60%

                                                Both are in great shape but Kerber is just better on grass.
                                                Comment
                                                • JNic
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-03-10
                                                  • 4272

                                                  #129
                                                  couldnt agree more with isner, let's hope he is near 100% ready
                                                  Comment
                                                  • noober
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-23-09
                                                    • 2012

                                                    #130
                                                    Originally posted by noober
                                                    Two plays for tomorrow:

                                                    Isner over De Bakker at 2.56 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

                                                    Probability of winning: ~ 48%

                                                    I think people are overestimating the fatigue factor. Isner will show up ready to play and tough to be broken.


                                                    Kerber -2 over Groth at 1.93 (Pinnacle) 1.5 units

                                                    Probability of winning: ~ 60%

                                                    Both are in great shape but Kerber is just better on grass.

                                                    Looks like I underestimated the fatigue factor.

                                                    Daily Reocord: 0-2 for -1.5 units
                                                    So far: 23-24 for +7.64
                                                    Comment
                                                    • noober
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-23-09
                                                      • 2012

                                                      #131
                                                      One play for tommorow:

                                                      Kvitova +5 over Azaraenka at 2.12 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

                                                      Probability: ~ 50%
                                                      Comment
                                                      • birdmanweezy
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-18-10
                                                        • 4635

                                                        #132
                                                        good luck noober
                                                        Comment
                                                        • noober
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-23-09
                                                          • 2012

                                                          #133
                                                          Originally posted by noober
                                                          Looks like I underestimated the fatigue factor.

                                                          Daily Reocord: 0-2 for -1.5 units
                                                          So far: 23-24 for +7.64
                                                          Actually,

                                                          Daily Reocord: 0-2 for -2.5 units
                                                          So far: 23-24 for +6.64
                                                          Comment
                                                          • noober
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 10-23-09
                                                            • 2012

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by noober
                                                            One play for tommorow:

                                                            Kvitova +5 over Azaraenka at 2.12 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

                                                            Probability: ~ 50%

                                                            Should have played Kvitova -5
                                                            Comment
                                                            • shari91
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 02-23-10
                                                              • 32661

                                                              #135
                                                              Originally posted by noober
                                                              Should have played Kvitova -5


                                                              Great call!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jojo85
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 03-22-10
                                                                • 277

                                                                #136
                                                                haha meltdown by azarenka.. nice call!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • noober
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 10-23-09
                                                                  • 2012

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Originally posted by noober
                                                                  One play for tommorow:

                                                                  Kvitova +5 over Azaraenka at 2.12 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

                                                                  Probability: ~ 50%
                                                                  Daily Record: 1-0 for +1.12 units

                                                                  So Far: 24-24 for +7.76 units
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • noober
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 10-23-09
                                                                    • 2012

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Today:

                                                                    Radwanska over Na Li at 2.13 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

                                                                    Probability: ~ 50%
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • jojo85
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 03-22-10
                                                                      • 277

                                                                      #139
                                                                      yeah, don't see why Na Li should be favored here...
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • noober
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 10-23-09
                                                                        • 2012

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Originally posted by noober
                                                                        Today:

                                                                        Radwanska over Na Li at 2.13 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

                                                                        Probability: ~ 50%
                                                                        0-1 for -1 unit

                                                                        So far:

                                                                        24-25 for +6.76 units
                                                                        Comment
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