EP36's Tennis Talk

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 06:40 AM

STARACE +115
The price is shockingly low on Robredo after last week's run in Bastad, except maybe it shouldn't be so shocking. Robredo had points to defend in that event and he traditionally had played well on that court. Here in Hamburg, nothing to play for except a meal voucher. Robredo has been inconsitent through injuries this season and I'm going with Starace here. Starace dominated Phau with a solid serve in his opener. He's had his moments on dirt this season on both the Challenger and ATP levels. Feeling here is that Starace with a game on-court and in spite of the 0-5 head-2-head gives Robredo his walking papers unless Tommy really is beginning to get healthy. I'll pay to find out.

noober · 07-20-10, 06:48 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

STARACE +115
The price is shockingly low on Robredo after last week's run in Bastad, except maybe it shouldn't be so shocking. Robredo had points to defend in that event and he traditionally had played well on that court. Here in Hamburg, nothing to play for except a meal voucher. Robredo has been inconsitent through injuries this season and I'm going with Starace here. Starace dominated Phau with a solid serve in his opener. He's had his moments on dirt this season on both the Challenger and ATP levels. Feeling here is that Starace with a game on-court and in spite of the 0-5 head-2-head gives Robredo his walking papers unless Tommy really is beginning to get healthy. I'll pay to find out.

Tough to go against 0-5 H2H.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 06:56 AM

Most of them are at least two years ago though when Robredo was a much more consistent and certainly better player. Now, I don't think that is the case from tourney to tourney. Most times though if you have a head-2-head like this, you'd think the price would be more in favor of Robredo, part of the reason I'm trying Starace is because of the price and I know I could have had a little better, but watched to see where the money was going.

HeeeHAWWWW · 07-20-10, 07:00 AM

Only problem with Starace I see is that his serve is rendered a little ineffective by the bounce here. Unusually hot in Hamburg today/tomorrow at least, will give it a bit more kick.

H2h is meaningless now though, I agree. Just not sure how fit Robredo is though....

noober · 07-20-10, 07:04 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Most of them are at least two years ago though when Robredo was a much more consistent and certainly better player. Now, I don't think that is the case from tourney to tourney. Most times though if you have a head-2-head like this, you'd think the price would be more in favor of Robredo, part of the reason I'm trying Starace is because of the price and I know I could have had a little better, but watched to see where the money was going.

so you are saying that the price on robredo is too good to be true so you are going with starace?

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 07:07 AM

More or less. Based on the H2H and Robredo's run last week, you'd expect the price to have been something like -160 or higher. I think it's fishy low in that maybe we're being baited into taking Robredo because it does look way too good. I also don't think the talent gap is that wide now between the two, so I'm comfortable with it whatever happens. Starace is capable. I could be wrong and probably will be.

noober · 07-20-10, 07:13 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

More or less. Based on the H2H and Robredo's run last week, you'd expect the price to have been something like -160 or higher. I think it's fishy low in that maybe we're being baited into taking Robredo because it does look way too good. I also don't think the talent gap is that wide now between the two, so I'm comfortable with it whatever happens. Starace is capable. I could be wrong and probably will be.

Agree with you. I played Robredo as soon as I saw it because it's just too good. Sometimes it's a trap but we will see. I have a little write up on the match in my thread if you wanna see it.

jojo85 · 07-20-10, 08:03 AM

That tiebreak made me sweat.. yay for Starace!

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 08:04 AM

Yeah nice win in the 1st set after he started out down 0-3. We'll see if he can get it done.

nicsbr · 07-20-10, 08:06 AM

fuking robredo

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 08:09 AM

CHALLENGER PLAY

JANOWICZ +125
The young Polish player is on home turf here against Luczak, a player he dismantled just a few weeks ago on clay in The Netherlands. They met last year at this tournament and Janowicz showed his youth, getting crushed. With the recent results and a chance to gain some revenge for losing in front of the home fans last year, Janowicz looks like a solid shot here. Luczak is not a great clay player with a 6-11 mark with half those wins coming in qualis at tournaments. If Janowicz comes with a solid serve, look for him to survive and advance. This one is set to start at 10am ET or a little after for anyone who gives a flying fork.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 08:49 AM

3rd set for Starace-Robredo. Been pretty even throughout. Whoever gets more 1st serves in looks like the winner in the 3rd based on what happened in sets 1 & 2.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 09:02 AM

Early break to the Potito-nator. Consolidate this bitch.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 09:23 AM

Starace rolls 6-1 in the 3rd set.

Seppi won earlier, so awaiting Ferrero this afternoon to try and complete the parlay there. Janowicz in action, up a break early on Luczak 2-1.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 09:35 AM

PARLAY: MARRERO/LOPEZ (Doubles) + BERLOCQ (Orbetello Challenger) [+127]
I took this pairing of Marrero & Lopez back about a week or so ago and this is another good spot for them, I think. They are a normal doubles pairing going up against the thrown together tandem of Thomaz Bellucci & Maximo Gonzalez. Maximo has rarely played doubles at all this season & Bellucci has had very little success in his limited doubles parternships with other players in 2010. Marreo & Lopez have done a nice job of beating teams like this that are thrown together, with wins in their last two tournaments in opening rounds. Siding with doubles experience. Berlocq has been on a roll on the Challenger level on clay. He's won a pair of titles in the last month and made the semis in another. Di Mauro has played better of late, making the semis in Rimini last week, but he's been good at that tournament over the last two years while not doing much in others. They have played five times with Berlocq holding a slight 3-2 edge.

spartangreen · 07-20-10, 09:56 AM

Good Luck Today

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 09:57 AM

Thanks. Good luck with the soccer capping today, been waiting for a bigger slate of matches over there to get some more plays in.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by ukbsktbll

Is that Challenger play Quigley being carried over to tomorrow?

Here's the stupid Twitter updates for this Challenger. Quigley match is supposed to follow Stevenson-Bobusic, so maybe within the next 45 minutes.

http://twitter.com/53tennis

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 11:27 AM

Janowicz choked his match away. Was up a break late in the 2nd with a set already in hand and wound up losing the 2nd set. Just choked a break in the 3rd with Luczak about to put him away. Looks like nerves killed this kid, 8 double faults and his serve went to shit in the last set. Oh well.

griffdog · 07-20-10, 11:56 AM

I can sympathize. Just had a nice choke job with Simon. In control of the first set, fell apart, came back to win the second, up 4-2 and a point away from 5-2 and a chance to serve out the match...and lost 7-5. Nice chance to win with Simon at solid + money, since he's still on his way back, shame he let it slip away like that. Next time though, next time.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 12:24 PM

Simon is one of those guys I won't touch at any price until he finds some form. That's two tournaments in a row where he's completely fallen apart when he was in total control of a set.

Looking at Atlanta, one keeps sticking in my gut, but damn I dunno. Gonna wait and see how some of this parlay action goes before deciding.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 12:36 PM

Well Quigley from yesterday is gonna go down here, but he made it worth a watch. Lost 7-5 in the 1st, but broken to start the 2nd. Anyone who paid -1000 for Bogomolov is a dunce. Of course, I took at +530 dog for fun, what does that make me?

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 02:11 PM

Ferrero comes through in straights. Parlay #1 complete.

Doubles play pending to complete parlay #2. Marrero-Lopez won the 1st set, 7-6. Looks like it is going to carry over until tomorrow.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 02:47 PM

LINDAHL +4 [-112]
I'm a big fan of this young kid from Australia, Lindahl. This is by far his best surface, but he's still a work in-progress. He did a nice job getting through qualis here and playing Dancevic gives him kind of a lite version of Ginepri to have prepared for in a sense. The big question for me here is Ginepri. Lots of people are assuming he is going to be "in form" remembering his French Open run, but let's not forget he's just 1-2 since and got straight setted out of Wimbledon with ease. Lindahl has a stiff serve that when working can keep him deep into sets. Sounds similar to Ginepri eh? I think with Ginepri having to get acclimated to court conditions compared to Lindahl having played twice here could factor into a tigher match than expected.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 02:51 PM

Apparently the doubles match just stopped momentarily, Marrero-Lopez finish it off quick 6-2 in the 2nd. Parlay #2 complete!

nicsbr · 07-20-10, 03:53 PM

any thoughts on lukas lackos match?

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 04:00 PM

Don't think either guy is worth their respective price.

Lindahl plays the tie break like a dweeb, up 4-2, he loses it 7-4. Down 7-6 after one set.

CindyCryBaby · 07-20-10, 04:06 PM

Yea. Lindahl +4 will be close EP. Don't think it will hold for you though

CindyCryBaby · 07-20-10, 04:11 PM

nvm...your good...saw a 6-2 set coming after that breaker

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 04:25 PM

Typical of Lindahl it seems. He loses concentration after losing a tight set. Bummer.

Goat Milk · 07-20-10, 04:31 PM

I was on Malisse today but he might be a good fade next round if he served like he did today.

CindyCryBaby · 07-20-10, 04:36 PM

Sick. Said you'd be good at 2-1 Lindahl in the second, then he gets broken 3 times in a row. Unlucky EP.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 04:38 PM

Just a product of youth. You lose in a tie break, especially when you have a lead - lapses in concentration show up in the next set. It's what separates the good from the mediocre. The good put that set behind them and fight on. Mediocre do this sort of thing.

beefcake · 07-20-10, 10:28 PM

Get em tommorow Ep!

EaglesPhan36 · 07-20-10, 11:39 PM

WEDNESDAY

PARLAY: MONTANES + BELLUCCI [-110]
Montanes obviously comes into this in great form after winning Stuttgart last week. His opponent, Riba, has some clay skills, but is usually out classed against players on Montanes' level. Might take Montanes part of the 1st set to get suited to the surface, but he should have enough to move on. Bellucci draws Bolelli who also has a good clay court game, but most of Bolelli's wins have come at the Challenger level and inside his home country of Italy. His serve was really solid against Greul in the opener and he played tough in the tie breaks to win. Bellucci has the better talent of the two but does have some of the inconsistencies of youth. He's been off since Wimbledon, so you think he prepped specifically for this tournament and hopefully comes out ready. Won't be surprised to see Bolelli work a set off him, but Bellucci - if his serve stays steady all match - gets on to the next round.