2019 Tennis Season - Picks and Analysis

**Conqueror** · 03-08-19, 03:16 PM

I hope Young comes back for you.
You Mayer pick over Opelka yesterday was epic.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-08-19, 07:38 PM

Thanks, can’t hit them all ey lol. Delbonis was a bees wang away from winning too, and had a break in the first set.
Oh well it’s nice to identify those overvalued players here no doubt.

Also Ernests was a dumb dumb pick from me, argh! Should have known better went away from what worked for me

**DavidGoliath5003** · 03-08-19, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Thanks, can’t hit them all ey lol. Delbonis was a bees wang away from winning too, and had a break in the first set.
Oh well it’s nice to identify those overvalued players here no doubt.

Also Ernests was a dumb dumb pick from me, argh! Should have known better went away from what worked for me

Good job Jeff. FYI if you havnt watched Bolt this tourney his big serve has been working well on this court. The extra practice in the challenger tournament leading up got him really ready to go

**Jeff_Black** · 03-08-19, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by DavidGoliath5003

Good job Jeff. FYI if you havnt watched Bolt this tourney his big serve has been working well on this court. The extra practice in the challenger tournament leading up got him really ready to go

Yeah that’s why I was disappointed I went the other way, I backed him in Qualifiers when the value was good and it Worked well for me. Like you said though his serve is most of his skill set at the moment but he’s definitely feeling confident.

**DavidGoliath5003** · 03-08-19, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Yeah that’s why I was disappointed I went the other way, I backed him in Qualifiers when the value was good and it Worked well for me. Like you said though his serve is most of his skill set at the moment but he’s definitely feeling confident.

I thought the Value was on Gulbis too which it was... im shocked he didnt care more. I didnt see the match Bolt must have been lights out

**Jeff_Black** · 03-09-19, 01:35 AM

Well it was three sets not like he flaked and folded right away lol. It happens.

137 - 127 - 10 (+47.713u)

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, R2
Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Marco Cecchibato
Moneyline: Albert Ramos Vinolas, 2.12 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, R2
San Querrey vs Milos Raonic
Moneyline: Sam Querrey, 2.89 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, R2
Alex De Minaur vs Marcos Giron
Handicap: Marcos Giron +4.5, 1.819 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Marcos Giron, 4.50 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1.5 & 0.5u plays

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, R2
Novak Djokovic vs Bjorn Frangetelo
Handicap: Bjorn Frangetelo +6.5, 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, R2
Alexander Zverev vs Martin Klizan
Handicap: Alexander Zverev -4.5, 1.813 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

**Conqueror** · 03-09-19, 12:27 PM

BOL today.
Definitely tailing that Sam Querrey play.

**DavidGoliath5003** · 03-09-19, 01:35 PM

I believe it was this event Fratangelo took a set off Djokovic. Good luck today

**Jeff_Black** · 03-09-19, 10:47 PM

141 - 128 - 11 (+52.506u)

Thanks guys, yeah looks like Frangetelo have Djoker some troubles early. Just glad he held serve once in that second set to get the cover.

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
John Isner vs Alexi Popyrin
Handicap: Alexei Popyrin +3. 2.04 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Alexei Popyrin, 4.39 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u & 0.5u plays

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
Radu Albot vs Fabio Fognini
Moneyline: Fabio Fognini , 2.08 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
Hubert Hurkacz vs Lucas Pouille
Moneyline: Lucas Pouille, 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
Karen Khachanov vs Feliciano Lopez
Handicap: Feliciano Lopez +3, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Feliciano Lopez, 3.41 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u & 0.5u plays

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
Alex Bolt vs Guido Pella
Moneyline: Alex Bolt, 2.45 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
Denis Shapovalov vs Steve Johnson
Moneyline: Steve Johnson, 2.28 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
Filip Krajinovic vs David Goffin
Handicap: Filip Krajinovic +3 , 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
Nicholas Jarry vs Kyle Edmund
Handicap: Nicholas Jarry +3, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Nicholas Jarry, 3.34 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u & 0.5u plays

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman vs Roberto Carballaes Baellena
Set Handicap: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman -1.5 Sets, 1.869 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

**Jeff_Black** · 03-10-19, 10:27 PM

144 - 137 - 11 (+48.659u)

Absolutely terrible

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R3
Marcos Giron vs Milos Raonic
Handicap: Marcos Giron +4, 2.06 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Marcos Giron, 5.89 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u & 0.5u plays

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
Alexander Zverev vs Jan Lennard Struff
Handicap: Jan Lennard Struff +4.5 , 1.793 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
Gael Monfils vs Albert Ramos Vinolas
Handicap: Albert Ramos Vinolas +4.5 , 2.07 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
Gilles Simon vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Gilles Simon +3.5 , 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R2
Felix Auger Aliassime vs Yoshihito Nishoika
Handicap: Felix Auger Aliassime -2 , 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

**Gaze73** · 03-11-19, 03:57 AM

Nice thread, you are definitely sharp! Can you please explain the Popyrin pick? I saw a lot of people picking him yesterday for some unexplicable reason, how often do rank 130s beat top 10 players? He got crushed just as I expected.

**DR225** · 03-11-19, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Nice thread, you are definitely sharp! Can you please explain the Popyrin pick? I saw a lot of people picking him yesterday for some unexplicable reason, how often do rank 130s beat top 10 players? He got crushed just as I expected.

Ignore tennis rankings, they are almost completely meaningless. And so far this year, Isner has basically lost three times to players outside of the top 100. He lost to Evans (ranked 147), Opelka (rank 102) and Opelka again (this time ranked 98). As I said though, tennis rankings are meaningless, Isner is not really a top 10 caliber player and guys like Evan are really around top 50 players. And Popyrin is a young guy with a lot of potential, he will probably be a top 50 player by next year.

**Gaze73** · 03-11-19, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by DR225

Ignore tennis rankings, they are almost completely meaningless. And so far this year, Isner has basically lost three times to players outside of the top 100. He lost to Evans (ranked 147), Opelka (rank 102) and Opelka again (this time ranked 98). As I said though, tennis rankings are meaningless, Isner is not really a top 10 caliber player and guys like Evan are really around top 50 players. And Popyrin is a young guy with a lot of potential, he will probably be a top 50 player by next year.

Still, I prefer the dogs when the rankings aren't too far off. E.g Gunenswaran vs Karlovic today 97 vs 89. Gunneswaran is such a cash machine.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-11-19, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

Nice thread, you are definitely sharp! Can you please explain the Popyrin pick? I saw a lot of people picking him yesterday for some unexplicable reason, how often do rank 130s beat top 10 players? He got crushed just as I expected.

I get it wrong too dont worry haha, thankfully I am more right then wrong and that is important.

I think Isner is probably a guy people like to fade at times, he actually does ok in Indian Wells and Miami, he's made the SF/Final before and I think he's won Miami too? But when he plays someone whos got a good serve (see Opeika at New York) he is definately vulnerable. But I guess that's why the odds are set at what they are because there is risk.

As I've mentioned early in my thread I spoke briefly about the tennis coaches who I've conversed with who have been around those guys since they were like 10 years old. And as I mentioned for a guy who is 6'5 he can move damn well. Isner isn't a great mover on the flipside.
So I think that may be part of my reason that I am personally keeping an eye on him because he has more 'natural talent' then a guy like De Minaur who has done excellently so far but is also severely flawed as a tennis player.

FWIW keep an eye on him during clay too, he won the Junior French Open two years ago and knows how to move and play tactically on clay. I just hope he has matured a bit more since.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-11-19, 11:23 PM

146 - 141 - 11 (+45.865u)

That said another less then spectacular day. Dang so close with Giron this time around, odds were insanely good and it nearly paid off, ah well.

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R3
Daniil Medvedev vs Filip Krajinovic
Handicap: Filip Krajinovic +3.5 , 2.12 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R3
Kei Nishikori vs Hubert Hurkacz
Handicap: Hubert Hurkacz +3.5 , 1.961 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Hubert Hurkacz, 3.28 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1.5u and 0.5u plays

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R3
Denis Shapovalov vs Marin Cilic
Handicap: Marin Cilic -2.5, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R3
Radu Albot vs Kyle Edmund
Handicap: Radu Albot +3.5 , 1.934 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Radu Albot, 3.18 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1.5u and 0.5u plays

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R3
Andrey Rublev vs Karen Khachanov
Handicap: Andrey Rublev +2.5 , 1.90 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Andrey Rublev, 2.54 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u and 1u plays

**Gaze73** · 03-12-19, 05:53 AM

I'm having a tough time myself the past few days, losing by half a game constantly. Sometimes the dogs are just useless.

Also I find it interesting how sometimes you take the dog ML and sometimes only the spread. I would assume the ML dogs are higher confidence/value picks than spread-only dogs. E.g. you don't trust Krajinovic ML even though you trusted big dog Giron ML which was a great pick. Struff also destroyed Zverev without breaking a sweat but you didn't take the ML.

I think in the long term dog spreads are probably better, i.e. nearly the same value but with lower variance. E.g. you can win 34% at 3.5 for 19% roi or 60% at 1.95 for 17% roi but with a higher stake.

**Gaze73** · 03-12-19, 01:14 PM

Shapovalov is great value according to my numbers, let's see who's right :P
I agree with Hurkacz and Krajinovic. Rublev and Albot are no bets for me.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-12-19, 11:12 PM

149 - 147 - 11 (+41.677u)

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R4
Rafael Nadal vs Filip Krajinovic
Handicap: Filip Krajinovic +5.5 , 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R4
Yoshihito Nishioka vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Handicap: Miomir Kecmanovic , 2.03 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Miomir Kecmanovic, 2.62 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R4
Philipp Kohlscriebber vs Gael Monfils
Handicap: Gael Monfils -3, 1.793 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R4
John Isner vs Karen Khachanov
Handicap: John Isner -1, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters, Men’s Singles, R4
Jan Lennard Struff vs Milos Raonic
Handicap: Jan Lennard Struff +2.5, 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

**Jeff_Black** · 03-12-19, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by Gaze73

I'm having a tough time myself the past few days, losing by half a game constantly. Sometimes the dogs are just useless.
Also I find it interesting how sometimes you take the dog ML and sometimes only the spread. I would assume the ML dogs are higher confidence/value picks than spread-only dogs. E.g. you don't trust Krajinovic ML even though you trusted big dog Giron ML which was a great pick. Struff also destroyed Zverev without breaking a sweat but you didn't take the ML.
I think in the long term dog spreads are probably better, i.e. nearly the same value but with lower variance. E.g. you can win 34% at 3.5 for 19% roi or 60% at 1.95 for 17% roi but with a higher stake.

Yes sometimes I am not confident in the dog winning the match outright but confident in him to make it a competitive match. If I lose both I lose both and will take the hit. Many of those dogs came close too...Lopez against Khachanov and Giron against Raonic. He was up 4-2 in that third set before falling apart, happens I guess. Querrey wasn't that far off in his match against Raonic either.

I have already cashed a few dogs here Lopez at 5s, Giron at 4s, and a couple of 3s too which has probably made my unit profit better then what it would normally be if I just took handicap/over under bets. If I miss out on the dog winning SU ill live with that.

I thought Goffin matched up well for Krajinovic because I remembered watching their match from (Marseille? I think it was) where he also beat him there. Goffin has been pretty mediorce this year for a top 20-30 player but still loses to these guys. Probably value in Krajinovic in hindsight but I was happy to take the points too.

Lopez was one where I just thought the value was too good to not take a stab for a round one match. He has an 8-6 lifetime record against Berdych too but I dont look into that TOO much, it just means he can beat him. If it was closer to 3s maybe I would have left it. Plus I've looked at his form in the past as well and he's fared ok here. < Most of what I've said here was mentioned in my original write up for taking him.

Im sure other people have their reasons for taking who they do and sometimes people admit they throw darts (I think the closest to what I considered a 'dart' was Lopez) because I was less confident in him to win as opposed to some of the others who I thought were more of a realistic chance but I think there are always good reasons that can be found either way. How that pans out is another story :P

**Jeff_Black** · 03-14-19, 12:07 AM

152 - 149 - 12 (+45.812u)

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, QF
Hubert Hurkacz vs Roger Federer
Handicap: Hubert Hurkacz +5, 1.787 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, QF
Karen Khachanov vs Rafael Nadal
Handicap: Karen Khachanov +4.5, 2.04 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Karen Khachanov, 4.64 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u and 1u plays

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, QF
Milos Raonic vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Handicap: Miomir Kecmanovic +4, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

No odds out yet for Monfils and Thiem but i'll edit it in here when it's out if I like it. Am leaning Monfils if the line is good.

**DavidGoliath5003** · 03-14-19, 12:42 AM

I like the picks except kecmanovic, Milos will destroy him tomorrow

**Jeff_Black** · 03-14-19, 02:31 AM

Originally posted by DavidGoliath5003

I like the picks except kecmanovic, Milos will destroy him tomorrow

Watched their match earlier in Brisbane, Kecmanovic a lot more polished this time around, IMO anyway. And that was 6-4, 7-6 with Kecmanovic barely playing on the main tour and making errors, and showing his rookie growing pains etc. I struggle to trust Raonic to get breaks when he relys on his serves, but Kecmanovic hasn't had the big upset win like Kohlscrieber did yesterday or Struff to have a letdown, he's just riding the luck of being a Lucky Loser and making the most out of it.
That said the rookie run can run out of puff but based off what I've seen Raonic at this tournament I don't think he is as much of a lock as the odds indicate.

Anyway checked back in to see the odds for the last QF match so making my lean a play.

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, QF
Gael Monfils vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Gael Monfils -2, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

**DavidGoliath5003** · 03-14-19, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Watched their match earlier in Brisbane, Kecmanovic a lot more polished this time around, IMO anyway. And that was 6-4, 7-6 with Kecmanovic barely playing on the main tour and making errors, and showing his rookie growing pains etc. I struggle to trust Raonic to get breaks when he relys on his serves, but Kecmanovic hasn't had the big upset win like Kohlscrieber did yesterday or Struff to have a letdown, he's just riding the luck of being a Lucky Loser and making the most out of it.
That said the rookie run can run out of puff but based off what I've seen Raonic at this tournament I don't think he is as much of a lock as the odds indicate.

Anyway checked back in to see the odds for the last QF match so making my lean a play.

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, QF
Gael Monfils vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Gael Monfils -2, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Jeff, im biased because im Canadian lol however, i believe Brisbane is, was a much faster hardcourt which will make it tough for either guy to break. So far, I have nothing on this match. Good luck

**Jeff_Black** · 03-15-19, 10:22 PM

Yeah wasn’t much in it but result is a loss anyway.

154 - 152 - 12 (+43.078u)

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, SF
Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer
Handicap: Roger Federer -3, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, SF
Dominic Thiem vs Milos Raonic
Handicap: Dominic Thiem +2.5, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Dominic Thiem, 2.49 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u and 1u plays

**DavidGoliath5003** · 03-16-19, 12:37 AM

I feel a walk over coming for Federer. Nadal really should rehab for the clay season now

**Jeff_Black** · 03-16-19, 12:46 AM

Yeah Nadal letting everyone now he’s not 100% lol. I guess up until Khachanov he’s had a cupcake draw. He has avoided their matchups in the past to keep his h2h in tact but Federer getting a sixth straight win would be something if it happened.

**DavidGoliath5003** · 03-16-19, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by DavidGoliath5003

I feel a walk over coming for Federer. Nadal really should rehab for the clay season now

Lol and Nadal withdraws

**Jeff_Black** · 03-16-19, 06:38 PM

Yeah can’t be shocked.

156 - 152 - 13 (+46.454u)

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, Final
Roger Federer vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Dominic Thiem +4, 1.793 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

**DavidGoliath5003** · 03-16-19, 07:15 PM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Yeah can’t be shocked.

156 - 152 - 13 (+46.454u)

ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, Final
Roger Federer vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Dominic Thiem +4, 1.793 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

Good hit earlier. Not sure if you watched the Match, Raonic was horrible on returns.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-16-19, 10:39 PM

I did, Kecmanovic also by the numbers served pretty well he just faltered when it mattered and had break points too.
Thiem with more experience probably handled it better. I think there was a reason why that line was shorter and not like -3.5 or so.

Probably a good thing Thiem won as Federer would have done his usual thing against beating Raonic. Least we get an ok potential game now

**DavidGoliath5003** · 03-16-19, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

I did, Kecmanovic also by the numbers served pretty well he just faltered when it mattered and had break points too.
Thiem with more experience probably handled it better. I think there was a reason why that line was shorter and not like -3.5 or so.

Probably a good thing Thiem won as Federer would have done his usual thing against beating Raonic. Least we get an ok potential game now

Well, unfortunately This is the Worlds slowest hardcourt (per Surface spin rating)Guys like Kyrgios were destroyed because they didnt feel like hitting the ball all day. Lol. Raonic has actually beaten Federer 3 times.... too bad its not a faster hardcourt. As for the experience Raonic has 2 times more Masters semi final appearances (10)than Thiem has. Just a bad matchup on this court. Thiem played as well as he possibly could, Raonic looks Rusty still, i expect a big Grass season this year from Milos

AS for Federer at his age, the guy is still dominating and I think, unless hes Flat should win comfortably vs Thiem

**Jeff_Black** · 03-17-19, 11:11 PM

Well that was a surprise, but got my result up in the end so that's what matters to me.

Good to see other guys getting these Masters 1000 titles, with that said.

157 - 152 - 13 (+50.419u)

No rest for us bettors though, Miami Masters 1000 around the corner with qualifiers as well.

No odds out for me yet, might wait till later on to see what's out there. Will probably post something tonight but.

**DavidGoliath5003** · 03-17-19, 11:56 PM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Well that was a surprise, but got my result up in the end so that's what matters to me.

Good to see other guys getting these Masters 1000 titles, with that said.

157 - 152 - 13 (+50.419u)

No rest for us bettors though, Miami Masters 1000 around the corner with qualifiers as well.

No odds out for me yet, might wait till later on to see what's out there. Will probably post something tonight but.

Good job man. I failed to listen to the opening odds. Thiem played well, at the same time Federer is starting to look his age

**Jeff_Black** · 03-18-19, 03:51 AM

I had a reasonable level of confidence that Thiem could be competitive based off what I saw of him from previous matches. Which is funny because he's had a pretty average 2019 season up until winning that Masters lol.
Here I was holding out for him to win 2 games in that third set so at worst I could get a push lol. Federer had to break twice anyway but you want that security as early as possible too lol.
Made me be able to enjoy that match better too

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Alex Bolt vs Evgeny Donskoy
Handicap: Alex Bolt -1, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Lloyd George Harris vs Alexi Popyrin
Handicap: Alexei Popyrin +2.5, 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Ruben Belemans vs Paolo Lorenzi
Moneyline: Ruben Belemans, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Like a few dogs but gonna see how this day pans out. A lot of clay guys playing here with some interesting odds. Some fadeworthy but you never know...

**JC1186** · 03-18-19, 08:26 AM

Strong thread Jeff. One of the strongest on the internet if I'm not mistaken. Well done. So much of the year left.

I'd take Lorenzi any day even with the injury concerns. Just need to make sure it's a book like Bet365 where they refund even after the first set played.