Hey man. Yeah Serbia +2 looks interesting, but keep in mind that Brazil has an oversupply of talent and some newcomers like Villian are still trying to prove their worth. I think there will be no limits on substitutions so the Brazil reserves can still potentially pound Serbians in the 2H. Also, I doubt it that Serbians will try to injure anybody which means more fun for Brazilians. And no, Serbia is worse than Sweden or even Ukraine which also did not qualify. Good luck though, I might take Serbia +2 as well.
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In no way I tryed to underestimate Brazil. Of course they have talent. Also, I didn't want to say that Serbians will try to injur anybody. Just that they will probably tackle with more determination and win more loose balls in the midfield.
I strongly disagree with your oppinion that Sweden and Ukraine are better. Yes, there are loads of teams, which were stronger then Serbia, with the lineup which they used in qualifications. For example, Matic wasn't even called-up, because some argue with Mihajlovic, while Tadic was coming of the bench mostly, in last 10 minutes of the game. Mihajlovic didn't care about the points and only promoted some of the players, which are owned by certain agent, so they could sell them with higher price. So, Scepovic was first striker in many games. At that time, he was coming of bench in his Partizan. I can think of at least 10 strikers which should have adventage over him. Midfield was a mess with Radovanovic, Ignjoviski, Petrovic, Stevanovic... My point is, that current team od Serbia is at least twice as better as that one which played in qualifications. That is why, we are getting value with this odds.
As always, it was real pleasure hearing your oppinion, which I highly value. Good luck with, whatever you choose to bet!Comment -
Nice call on Serbia +2. I put a little on that line; thanks for the tip.Comment -
Thanks man. Bit fortunate to hit that one, because Brazil's goal for 2-0 was dissallowed, where refferee made a mistake. But then also, Serbia hit post and a crossbar and was much better team in first half. I'd love to hit that +0,5 line as well, which was not that far away, but lets say this result was most fair.
But in general, it was pretty poor game. Pitch was like a mine field and didn't allow more attractive game. I hope that fields on other stadiums are better prepared.Comment -
Don't have a play on Frech open finals, but I am still going to write, my thoughts about that match.
I could see in other threads, that there is a lot of love for Rafa in this one. People saying how it is a gift to get him at -130 and so on... Of course, all the respect to the guy, which has 65-1 record at RG. But you have to take into consideration, that this is not 2010 anymore. Gap between Rafa and Novak on clay does not exist anymore. Yes, Rafa did look good in his last 5 sets. But then again, you have to ask yourself: Will Novak really allow Rafa, to do all his favorite shots every time and build his confidence? No, he will not, imho. People are forgeting that Djokovic is the only player, which can pick apart Rafa's game on clay and almost completely take away his strenghts. I am taking about that cross court forehand, which does so much good for Rafa against every opponent. Except against Novak.
I believe that they are very close in pretty much every category, but I am giving a slight edge to Novak here. Why? Because he can put more pressure on Rafa's serve, then the other way around, imho.
So, you are probably asking yourself, why am I not betting Novak then. There are rumours that his wrist is not at 100%. In such a close matchup, against two tennis titans, every single detail can be crucial, so I am not willing to take a risk, with the odds, which offere very little value.
Good luck!Comment -
Only the retards who know absolutely nothing of odds prior to the finals would even touch Rafa at negative odds. IMHO...Comment -
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Well that's not what you said. I played him at 1.85 for low/medium stake; he opened even a bit higher, I see nothing wrong with that bet. From your initial post it sounded like you did.Comment -
What's wrong is its inherent stupidity. If you were going to take those odds all along why not take @ 2.5 before the semis???Comment -
Because the semis influenced the confidence. He cruised against Murray while Djokovic was visibly exhausted at the end of Gulbis' match plus there appeared indications he might have additional health problems (cold?). Before the semis I thought Djokovic had as much chance as Nadal to win it; after semis my opinion changed. But 2.50 was nice I wasn't aware it was that high, I thought in 2.30 range which didn't seem anything great to playComment -
Davis +4 @1.86 Pinnacle - 2 units
Thinking about Davis' game, I have a feeling that she should do just fine on grass. Good movement + solid serve. Don't see why Paszek is favored by so much.
Schiavone ML @1.84 Pinnacle - 3 units
At first sight, this one doesn't make much sense, right? Thinking about schiavone and her loopy, dirtball shots. Still, I am going with her, as I could see how well she can adapt her game to the different surfaces. She will use serve and volley here, pretty often, imho.
Brown/Kuznetsov under 23,5 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units
Two players with tendencies to give up, when things does not go their way. Great for under, at such big line.
Riske 2-0 @1.80 Bet365 - 2 units
Alison was playing great on her least favorite surface, in past couple of weeks. Can't wait to see what can she do on grass.
Russell +3 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units
Kudla getting a lot of credit for a good run at this tournament, last year. Russell is not gonna give it to him easy.
Lopez -4 @1.86 Pinnacle - 2 units
Lajovic taking adventage of the soft draw at RG and making result of his career with 4th round. Still, he doesn't have enough experiance on grass, to take on such grass court master, like FelicianoComment -
Pliskova ML @4.65 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Puig +4,5 @1.85 Pinnacle - 2 units
Knapp +5 @1.87 Pinnacle - 2 units
Knapp ML @4.01 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Niculescu +4 @1.86 Pinnacle - 2 units
Ramos +5 @1.90 - 4 units
Ramos ML @3.49 - 1 unit
Tsonga/Roger-Vasselin over 36 @1.89 Pinnacle - 4 units
Roger Vasselin ML @5.80 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Knapp ML @2.15 Pinnacle - 7 units
Becker/Bellucci over 34 @1.94 Pinnacle - 2 units
Mathieu/Thiem over 38 @1.88 Pinnacle - 3 units
Cepelova +4,5 @1.94 Pinnacle - 2 units
Cepelova ML @3.26 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Stephens ML @1.87 Pinnacle - 2 units
Garcia +4.5 @1.98 Pinnacle - 4 units
Garcia ML @4.13 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Townsend/Suarez Navarro over 20 @1.84 Pinnacle
Berdych -4 @1.99 Pinnacle - 2 units
Schmiedlova +4,5 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units
Isner +3 @1.96 Pinnacle - 2 units
Granollers +5 @1.87 Pinnacle - 2 units
Kerber -4,5 @1.85 Pinnacle - 3 units
Ivanovic -4,5 @2.05 Pinnacle - 2 units
Verdasco/Murray under 42,5 @1.86 Pinnacle 2/10
Garcia-Lopez ML @2.52 Pinnacle 5/10
Kuznetsova ML @1.74 Pinnacle - 4/10
Crnokosa @19 WilliamHill - 1/10
Serbia +2 (AH) @1.82 Pinnacle - 5 units
Serbia +0,5 @4.40 Bet365 - 2 units
Serbia to win @16 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Davis +4 @1.86 Pinnacle - 2 units
Schiavone ML @1.84 Pinnacle - 3 units
Brown/Kuznetsov under 23,5 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units
Riske 2-0 @1.80 Bet365 - 2 units
Russell +3 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units
Record 38-36-3
Hit rate: 49.35%
Staked: 217u
Yield: +16.07 u
ROI: +7,41%
1 pending pick: Feliciano Lopez -4 @1.86 Pinnacle - 2 units
It was a pretty rough strech, with more then 10 units lost. Mostly thanks to few of those big bets lost at the beggining of French open. Moving on. Looking forward to improve on it, this month.Comment -
Great picks today
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Lopez won 1st set 6-3 but now it says its happening tomorrow?Comment -
Your intel is correct.Comment -
Schmiedlova +3,5 @2.01 Pinnacle - 2 units
I see this one closer then the books. McHale played some good tennis in past few months, but I don't see her playing to her full potential on grass. Her serve is decent, but being more of a point constructer, then a shot maker, could be a problem. Schmiedlova is quick around the court, plays flat and is in good form.Comment -
Sijsling +2,5 @1.96 Pinnacle - 2 units
I see this one as pretty much evened up match.All the credits to Tursunov for his good form at the moment, but Sijsling is built for grass. He serves well, has great touch at the net and moves really smooth on grass.
Roger Vaselin + Watson Parlay @2.02 Pinnacle - 2 units
Watson in good form. Grass courts her second home. Didn't want to lay -3, so I parleyed it with Roger vaselin, who also has a good game for grass and plays against inferior oponent.
Anderson/Evans over 22,5 @1.87 - 2 units
Evans ML @3.83 - 1 unit
Anderson in poor form lately. Yes he has a big serve, but movement might be the problem, when Evans gets it back in play. Also, in a close match, which I expect his choking "abilities" could get exposed. Evans alwas plays well on grass. He played really well yesterday against Melzer, who is no pushover on grass.
Vandeweghe ML @1.87 Pinnacle - 2 units
Just like her powerful game on grass, where she could do some damage to a player like Wickmayer, who is not a great mover.
Hantuchova +2,5 @1.87 Pinnacle - 5 units
Bencic is a future star of womens game. But Hantuchova is in good form, playing on her favorite surface and will use her rich experiance and tricks on this sruface, which young Belinda haven't seen yet.
Kudla +3 @1.99 Pinnacle - 2 units
I was going against Kudla and got burned yesterday. Today I am backing him. It's all about the number. Querrey is a huge server. It is important part of the game on this surface, but you cannot get it done only with that. His movement is pathetic and he trys to do everything with his arm. Possible upset.Comment -
Towlie is def. champ as well.Comment -
It is sometimes hard to keep up with all the nicknames, which you assign to players. Who is Towlie?
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What a choke by Watson
I was looking at this game on live menu and wondered maybe she could blew it. The next time I look she is toast.
Some of these girls are nuts!
Hope she comebacks for youComment -
I was surprised that you consider Anderson in poor form. He was never a great clay player so you can't expect amazing results in May from him. When I look at his losses this season (ignoring first tourney in New Zealand) the only one that jumps out is Hanescu, others were from very good players. He played really well on hard courts before clay season. Just wouldn't really consider him as an out of form player.Comment -
I disagree. Yes, he was never a great clay court player. But he can play some good tennis on that surface. I actually think that he can play almost as good on clay, as he can on hard courts. That is why I was dissapointed with his results in april and may and that is why I said, he is out of form. Because his performances were below my expectations.Comment -
Evans got a massage against Cox, he did not look very healthy to me if I may add.Comment -
Good call on Daniela. Thanks for the nudge, I played the ML @+130. She did blow like 4 MPs at 5-2 and 5-3 but finally was able to close it out. I also played Suckling (before I saw your leans), but he sucked today, big time. In addition to Hantu, I was kinda liking Dr. Ivo (I think Youzh is riding into the sunset this year), but instead I chose Suckling.
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Thanks man! I'm glad you cashed it as well. Too bad about Sijsling though. I definitely expected better effort from him, despite Tursunov's good form.Comment -
Tursunov 2-0 @2.11 Pinnacle - 2 units
I don't see Nieminen upseting Dimitry here. His serve is too inconsistant and especially his second one, begs to be hammered back for a winner. He needs really high 1st serve percentage to keep up with Turs here, but I don't think he can do it, because Tursunov will create a lot of pressure with good serving of his own.
Flipkens ML @2.01 Pinnacle - 2 units
Giorgi is very good and could be dangeorus on grass, but I see a matchup problem for her in this spot. She feeds of her return. She stands aggresive in the court, when returning and hitting a lot of winners from that position. Here, that can backfire on her. Flipkens has a good serve + quickness of the surface, will give very little time to Giorgi to react to the serve. She will struggle to time her returnes well and I believe that she will commit many errors there. Not to mention that Flipkens feels very good on grass.
Roger Vaselin +2,5 @2.01 Pinnacle - 3 units
I am struggling to find out, what isgoing on here. It seems to me that Mahut is riding on his reputation of grass court specialist. Yes, he is a specialist, but that is mostly because, he can't do sh** on other surfaces. Grass is a pretty much the only surface he can play on, but Roger Vaselin is a good grass courter as well. And at least a class better player overall, then Mahut, in terms of quality.
Wawrinka -2 @1.88 Pinnacle - 2 units
Hm. It seems to me like Baggy is a wannabe sharp play here.As much as I want to bet him in this spot as well, I just cannot do it at these odds. Yes, he can be a threat on grass, but it seems to me that people overreacted heavily, on Stan's inconsistant play and now everybody is fading him for that reason. It caused value to shift on his side.
Mega Vizura +5,5 Pinnacle @2.00 - 4 units
Second game of the semifinal series, of Serbian basketball league. First game, Crvena zvezda won by 11 at home. But, for this game, two very important starters - Micic and Dangubic are returning to Mega Vizura. They were in Treviso at Adidas camp, so they missed the first game. Micic is probably the best player of that team, while Dangubic is also important, because they lack depth at that position.
Zvezda matches up porly against Mega. Home side have frontcourt which can shoot threes and Zvezda struggle to defend that with their big men.Comment -
[QUOTE][Flipkens ML @2.01 Pinnacle - 2 units/QUOTE]
Flipkens just got out from hospital a week ago, you can check on her twitter.BOL!
Tailing this, crazy h2h 6-0.Wawrinka -2 @1.88 Pinnacle - 2 units
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Didn't knew that. It is, what it is, now. I am sticking with my play. Thanks for the info!Comment -
Hey there HB, thanks as always for your insight with everything here! Would you consider it almost safe, or at least inherent value, in taking Mega Vizura on the ML? Feeling kinda risky today! LolComment
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