yeah i noticed that.. every dog has it's day... is that your way of telling me to leave san palo alone??
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Don't worry, I'll come up with a writeup of such rules sometime. For starters, just note that the frequency of huge underdog wins is higher when:
1) there are few games on the board
2) games involve such favorites that one would be tempted to say about the favorite "no way will they lose"
3) games are between the top 4 and bottom 4 of the league
I promise to come up with more on this but I see a certain pattern to these upsets. To be honest with you, I was immensely surprised that FC Copenhagen won yesterday. I expected them to lose to Nicosia +500.Comment -
I don't want the rules Wilforth, I just want you to tell me who is going to win!
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Just to add one more thing. Huge dogs also tend to win first halves than they win whole games. Just watch to see the kind of games in which Real Madrid and Barcelona will lose the first half - those games in which the first half dog line is around +600 to +800.
Don't worry, I'll come up with a writeup of such rules sometime. For starters, just note that the frequency of huge underdog wins is higher when:
1) there are few games on the board
2) games involve such favorites that one would be tempted to say about the favorite "no way will they lose"
3) games are between the top 4 and bottom 4 of the league
I promise to come up with more on this but I see a certain pattern to these upsets. To be honest with you, I was immensely surprised that FC Copenhagen won yesterday. I expected them to lose to Nicosia +500.Comment -
Play #72: [Brazil Serie A] Palmeiras PK (-113)
Top of the table Palmeiras hitting the road to take on Coritiba. Palmeiras with just one loss, ONE in their last 17 Serie A matches. Coritiba has lost two straight at home and gone winless in four straight with draws to Botafogo & bottom of the table, Sport Recife. Palmeiras has been draw masters in three straight overall and on the road, they have won 3 of their last 5. The wins coming against Flamengo, Corinthians & Recife. Their only two road losses have come to Top 3 teams (Internacional & Goais). Coritiba has just two wins in their last 9 Serie A matches with 4 losses & 3 draws as the other results. This one shapes up as a potential draw, but with Goais, Internacional & a surging Sao Paulo putting pressure on Palmeiras up top in Serie A, these are the type of matches that Palmeiras needs to WIN.
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Good luck!
I'm on Coritiba ML.Comment -
Play #73: [Brazil Serie A] Sao Paulo/Fluminense OVER 2.5/3 (-114)
Red hot Sao Paulo at home against a Fluminense club that has yet to win on the road this season & has conceded the 3rd most goals in the league (32) in 19 matches. In their 8 match unbeaten run, Paulo has scored at least 2 goals in 7 matches and those 7 matches have yielded 3 goals or more for the total. As I stated in posts prior to this, Sao Paulo is probably a really solid play tonight - but that -250 chalk is not in my blood. Paulo is averaging 2.22 goals per home match, while conceding just 1. Fluminense gives up 2 per road match & nets one. 8 of Sao Paulo's last 10 have hit at least 3 goals. 5 straight at home have also hit that number or better for Paulo. Best thing for Paulo, they have scored in every home match and have netted at least 2 in 8 of 9 at home. They have scored 3 in each of their last 2 home matches. On the road, Fluminense has yielded 8 goals in their last 5 matches overall. On the road, they have given up 10 in their last 5. They have given up goals in all but one of their 9 road matches in Serie A and have given up multiple goals in 5 of 9. They have scored in 6 of 9 & 4 times have tallied multiple goals on the road. This one gets to three in my mind with little trouble if Fluminense gets on the scoresheet & even if they fail to, Sao Paulo has enough to do all three by themselves to get the half stakes win. If you can find this at 2.5 with a little more chalk, I'd still take a swing at it. Final note here is that Paulo is supposed to get back 36-year old netminder/captain Rogerio Ceni for tonight's match after he missed four months with a busted ankle. Paulo had been using a 3rd string keep after the back-up was injured, so his return should give them a mental boost. Ceni is also a penalty kick & free kick expert.
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You're right on Sao Paulo. The only thing to bet in such games is the total, just as the Liverpool game today went Over. It's silly to lay on those -200ish to -400ish lines.
Now to your Plamerias play. Palmerias is arguably the best value pick of the day in soccer, analytically speaking. But you always have to know that the books never lose. I would expect Palmerias to be around -130 but some books even have them at +105 (Bookmaker, for instance). I think the unsuspecting public will go huge on Palmerias tonight only to realize it was a set-up.Comment -
Are you talking about their price for the PK?Comment -
No. Palmerias ML. Palmerias is so much better than Coritiba that I don't expect to see Palmerias at plus value anywhere. Palmerias is currently at +105 at Bookmaker. I'm waiting to see what the books have in store on that game.Comment -
Palmeiras is +167 at Pinnacle. Not sure where you're getting the shitty price. I think the price is high because of their draw prowess recently.
BetPhoenix is down, so these bets are in limbo for me.Comment -
Wow! That's a lot. Even at BetUSA, which also has good soccer lines, Palmerias is at +130. Anyways, BOL.Comment -
Bookmaker is so horrible for soccer lines. Usually seem to be about 20-30 cents off of most books.Comment -
Palmeiras +162 at 5dimesComment -
Wow. Bookmaker just blows dong then. That's 60 cents at two different books. They'd get a lot more business if their soccer lines were more in-tune with the rest of the world!Comment -
If Santo Andre +450 wins, then I think Palmerias might win. Normally, there's always at least one sucker bet per league per match-day. If Botafogo recovers and wins, then Coritiba will DEFINITELY win.Comment -
That must be one of the rules!
Well I may not be invested in my picks in any case. BetPhoenix is jacked up. I'm heading out to eat and get a drink. Will come back before the matches start and hopefully slip my picks in.Comment -
the asian cap at bet phoenix changed from pk,-0.5 to just pk.Comment -
for palmerias that isComment -
Neither bet will be counted toward my total for the thread as I never got to make the wagers due to BetP being down. Still like 'em, so since I don't get to bet 'em - they should both win.
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Wilforth, you must have paid the refs ... Coritiba scores late in injury time after a 2nd Palmeiras red card! Glad BetPhoenix was F-ed up since both would have been big fat losers.Comment -
lol ya i think wilforth paid em....... did you see the pen call?Comment -
I told you guys Palmerias was going to be a sucker bet. I like Goais tomorrow to humiliate Nautico.Comment -
Play #72: [Europa League] Kosice/A.S. Roma OVER 2.5 (-140)
If BetPhoenix puts the Europa League lines back up, I will be on this one before I go to sleep. Roma is rolling in Europa League play with 11 goals in their last 2 matches. Kosice has given up 11 goals in their last 5 matches overall, while tallying 9 themselves. Roma is one of the favorites to win the Europa League and this is another chance to crush an opponent and make the 2nd leg of the tie a moot point. Roma is reportedly starting their big boys (Totti) and probably see this as a chance to fine tune for Serie A's kickoff this weekend as well. Roma will know a bevy of away goals will have them sitting pretty and able to perhaps rest players in the home leg. It wouldn't be a shock if Roma did enough work on their own to power past the over here.
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Cancel this one too. BetP didn't put the lines back up last night and I just looked. Over 2.5/3 at -180, F that chalk. Still think the over at 2.5 is a done deal, but I'm not laying that chalk with the split line.Comment -
I got over 2.5 last night at BookF*cker at -145Comment -
I would have taken that. I just didn't want to get stuck at -180 and only winning half the stakes if the total hits 3. 1-1 at the half. Shouldn't be a problem getting a third I think. Roma should do it.Comment -
Play #72: [Europa League] Bnei Yehuda vs. PSV UNDER 2.5 (-123)
The last five matches for Yehuda, including domestic & Europa League, have played to totals of 2 goals or less. In their last three Europa League matches, they have kept clean sheets and scored 3 goals total. At home in Europa League play, the Israeli side has yet to allow a goal in 3 matches although PSV will be a stern test today. PSV has been a much different club from domestic to Europa League play & that is the hope here after they banged home four goals against Ajax in their last match in Eredivisie play for a 4-3 win. In their two Europa League matches, they have kept clean sheets and scored two goals total. This should shape up to be a 1-0, 2-0 or maybe 1-1 match. I think Yehuda will be safe early, not wanting to let PSV take control and get out to a lead. We'll see.
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3-1 with over 20 minutes left! Thanks EP.Comment -
Figures I should have just bitten the bullet on the chalk. Probably get screwed in this PSV match. That's pretty much the law of the land.
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