1. 03-06-11 09:57 AM #1
    robzilla
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    Bet 2 games & go 1-1, or bet 100 and go 50-50, does it matter?

    What is the point of capping 100 games, or 2 games if the result is going to be the same? are you really eliminating risk by betting more games?

    I know there is many different schools of thought on this.
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  2. 03-06-11 09:59 AM #2
    Powderguy
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    Doesn't the juice factor into it in the end?
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  3. 03-06-11 10:14 AM #3
    robzilla
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powderguy View Post
    Doesn't the juice factor into it in the end?
    okay, lets assume that its all -110. does it matter now?
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  4. 03-06-11 10:18 AM #4
    B1GER1C828
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    People who bet liek 100 games in a day are finding value in them all. They might have a 2% edge in each game so if their betting 100 bux a game, at the end of their day their expected to be up 200 dollars.
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  5. 03-06-11 10:59 AM #5
    jkilla990
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    Quote Originally Posted by robzilla View Post
    okay, lets assume that its all -110. does it matter now?
    It actually matters alot, if you go 1-1, you lose .1 units.
    if u go 50-50, you lose 5 units.
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  6. 03-06-11 11:23 AM #6
    robzilla
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    Quote Originally Posted by jkilla990 View Post
    It actually matters alot, if you go 1-1, you lose .1 units. if u go 50-50, you lose 5 units.
    okay, well with betting 2 games there are 3 outcomes. 0-2, 1-1, 2-0 (0%, 50%, 100%).
    if you bet 100 games, with a 2% edge, maybe you win 52% long term... so i guess that is the thinking. +2% is better than, 3 outcome of which 1 is breakeven or less with juice or 0%.
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  7. 03-06-11 11:30 AM #7
    FourLengthsClear
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    More games = reduced variance.

    Based on a 50% hit rate
    Chances of going 0-2 are 25%
    Chances of going 0-10 are less than 0.1%.

    At the end of the day if you are a losing bettor, you might as well go all-in on two plays (also 25% chance of going 2-0) but if you are an advantage bettor, reducing variance and amplifying your edge is key.
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