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Testing Out a Theory
Been doing this during weekday games at some success. Betting ranked teams on the road vs unranked teams. I’m thinking more so just betting the unranked teams on the 1st half wagering. Would love to hear some thoughts on this with some of the more veteran gamblers.
Philly, I think you're on to something. I think you're talking about betting ON the "Un-ranked Home Fav vs the Ranked Road Dog."Originally Posted by USCPHILLYGUY
Or are you saying betting on any Unranked Home team versus the Road team (as Dog or Fav)?
A few patterns that go way back:
1) When the Road team is HIGHLY-ranked (like #1 or in top 5), the fat Home Dog can be attractive.
...Like it's a circled game. The Road team will be bet. The Home Team gets a nice energy burst from the crowd, and they don't want to be embarrassed.
2) The angle that used to get traction was "Unranked Home Fav vs Ranked Road Dog."
...First off, the # usually isn't too high. Win and cover type line. If you win, you almost always cover the short #.
...Going deeper, why is this team favored? Historically, AP/UPI rankings are pretty useless. The voters don't know enough.
My opinion on Power Ratings and how they translate into a game projection:
1) Rankings pretty useless.
2) Ken Pom: some people love him and quote him like Bible. For my $$, try to find where Ken Pom is OFF. The books love Ken Pom, but he's not always right.
3) Personal independent projections: If you're good, this should be more accurate and closer to the final score.
Yes Chucky was referring to the 1st part of your reply.
Only game tonight is #6 Wisconsin on the road vs Nebraska.
Strange line. Pretty much a pick em
Anyon know how to create the SDQL query for this? https://sportsdatabase.com/NCAABB/query.html
What is your rationale?
FWIW, almost 2 decades ago there was a thread on a different forum about blindly betting unranked teams versus ranked teams. The thinking was that the public would see the ranking and overvalue the ranked team. When the theory was tested versus the line it turned out the lines were efficient and neither the ranked nor the unranked team had results outside the margin for error.
interesting concept,,
be sure to keep us updated
Ok. Let’s give it a try
Nebraska 1st Half $ line -115
have ya taken a look around the ncaab sub-forum lately big guy?
lolol;
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...tem-plays.html
Lolol ?
what are you 12
Nebraska has played four home games in conference and won them all by DD, including over Purdue; the books know what they're doing.
the best way to utilize this system would be to wait for a full slate of games like a saturday.
then, look for some of the larger home dogs vs the line.eg; 9-10 and ^^.
what I noticed is that the ranked team on the road would seem like they are hanging back 1st half, maybe checking out the caliber of the hm team,,, maybe it`s ego, who knows?
If, let`s say the line on the gm was ranked team -13.5, I sometimes got a 1st half of +7 -115 with the hm doggy.
This can be a profitable play, but my preference is to look for the larger spreads and jump on em at the half as well as the game.
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Some teams in cbb have up to a 7 point advantage at home in conference play according to the line makers, rather your normal 3-4 points, Nebraska definitely fits this criteria and the line seems accurate. 1st half unranked dogs is definitely a sharp way to go about this game, although one game sample size shouldn’t totally sway your opinion just because you might lose.
lol
Great come back
I’m a 13 year old girl according to him sometimes so at least he didn’t strip you of your man hood.
The best way I can answer that is it depends on what the line is. More specifically, the number #1 red flag where bells and whistles should be going off is when an ranked team (usually on the road) is an underdog to an unranked team. or the line is very small. Usually it's a good idea to go along with what the books are telling you and take the home team. this pertains only to both college football and basketball. Your game tonight is a perfect example. Cornhuskers are unranked at home (but we all know how good they are at their house) and Wisky is ranked #6 and yet the line is only (-1) depending on when you bet it. It has been flip-flopping all day long between the two teams. I came real close to pulling the trigger on Nebraska myself but just couldn't do it. Badgers match up real well with them and have already clobbered them 88 - 72 in their earlier meeting...Good luck!...
One of the better threads here at SBR thanks for posting that !
You’ve done some good work but I tend to stay away from threads that PI Mike & his fake 30k wager are involved in. Good luck with your plays
I use BETIQ often.
It's a quality site where you can customize your filters.
College Basketball Win-Loss Records Vs. Ranked Opponents (2022-2023) | BetIQ (teamrankings.com)
Unde let me ask you something brother. We text somewhat regularly. Do u have text messages I’ve sent you from 3 years ago
No, I clean them out every few months so they don't take up a ton of memory on my phone. Why what is up?Unde let me ask you something brother. We text somewhat regularly. Do u have text messages I’ve sent you from 3 years ago
filtered for tonight`s match-up;https://betiq.teamrankings.com/colle...3&conf=big-ten
thx nash, another tool for my shed.
You can never have enough tools in the shed.
Glad to help.
Bad timing is all, what ya gonna do this shit happens.
Agreed Jerky. Had this bet plus full game and Knicks $$ line at -130 thinking all would be losses. Live to play another day
Was reading a stat. Out of 102,095 CBB games since 2006 that a team had a halftime lead of 16 plus points and lost the number is 204 or 0.19 %
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Taking this one now for tomm
Kansas +2
Is that for the 1H or the game?
You mean your fake Las Vegas football tickets
This guy is a liar and should never be trusted.
Lies a lot
He invited me to Vegas claiming he had tickets to the game.
When I got there he claimed he was sick and couldn’t make the trip.
But never sent the ticket to my phone so it wouldn’t go to waste.
This guy is so fool of shit. I could tell you more about this liar.
Super Bowl is next weekend but we got fireworks this weekend!
🤣🤣🤣
Was going with 12 other guys……contracted COVID so couldn’t make the trip. Other actual friends were more than happy to take my 2 tickets. Btw Mikey were you out at $$ for the ticket I offered you?
Please elaborate more lies from me? That’s right you cannot. You’re a fuckin clown who all you care about is your E cred in a chit chat room. Now fuk off before I really start talking about who you really are
Boys.
None of the three of us are completely normal types.
Just deal with the eccentricates of each other and worry about important things.
Not sure what started all this but is there really any need for the Pimike hate still going on? Really?
We've all been friends or friendly. Stick with that.
Opti it’s a lot of things. Him trashing SBR just to name a few. Then holding onto text messages from 3 years? Come on. I can say a lot trust me, but I won’t
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