1. #1
    ddittie
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    NFL Week 14: In-Depth Stats and Betting Insights for All Games

    I will attempt to get through every NFL game this week in this thread. Let's start it out with Tampa vs Atlanta. If you find any errors in the statistics, please message me or respond in this thread as soon as possible. Thanks and BOL!

    **Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons: A Refined Statistical Analysis**

    As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prepare for a crucial game against the Atlanta Falcons, a refined analysis, taking into account recent performances and divisional peculiarities, is key for bettors.

    **Head-to-Head and Common Opponents**

    Evaluating both teams against mutual opponents gives us a fair comparison:
    - Versus Carolina:
    - Buccaneers: Victory 21-18
    - Falcons: Victory 24-10
    - Versus Detroit:
    - Buccaneers: Defeat 20-6
    - Falcons: Defeat 20-6
    - Versus New Orleans:
    - Buccaneers: Victory 26-9
    - Falcons: Victory 24-15

    - Week 7 Encounter:
    - Buccaneers: Narrow loss 16-13 to the Falcons

    **NFC South Divisional Trends**

    Key observations in NFC South games:
    - Games against Carolina and New Orleans, and their direct encounter, all had total points below 40.5.
    - Indicates a preference for defensive strategies leading to lower-scoring games within the division.

    **Scoring Analysis**

    A close look at their scoring abilities:
    - Buccaneers' Average Points Per Game: Roughly 19.41
    - Buccaneers' Average Points Conceded Per Game: About 20.42
    - Falcons' Average Points Per Game: Around 18.83
    - Falcons' Average Points Conceded Per Game: Nearly 20

    **Betting Odds and Performance**

    - Falcons are slightly favored at -2.5, with an over/under at 40.5.
    - Falcons have surpassed 21.5 points in half of their games.
    - Falcons have conceded 19+ points in 58.33% of games.
    - Buccaneers have scored 19+ points in 58.33% of games.
    - Buccaneers have conceded over 21.5 points in 41.67% of games.

    **Contradictory Trends and Revised Betting Advice**

    Despite the historical trend of NFC South games going under, these teams have scored over the estimated total in over 50% of their games. This conflict suggests that the line might not offer a clear statistical advantage. Therefore, the recommended bet would be on the Atlanta Falcons at -2.5, especially considering their recent road win in Tampa.

    **Final Betting Recommendations**

    1. *Falcons -2.5*: Stronger bet considering their recent performance and the divisional context. (1 unit) LOSS
    2. **Under 40.5**: Based on divisional game trends, but approach with caution due to conflicting scoring patterns. LOSS
    3. *Bucs ML +110*: According to ESPN Analytics, it has Tampa winning this game 51.1% of the time, with the ML at +110, this would be a small ROI if correct. WIN
    Last edited by ddittie; 12-10-23 at 03:26 PM.

  2. #2
    ddittie
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    Which matchup would you like me to do next?

  3. #3
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by ddittie View Post
    Which matchup would you like me to do next?
    As an analytical geek who does this type of stuff all the time, I say follow your heart.
    Your best work lies in the game(s) that interest you the most.
    Points Awarded:

    ddittie gave stevenash 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  4. #4
    ddittie
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    **Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears: Comprehensive Statistical Preview**

    This in-depth analysis previews the upcoming contest between the Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, with a focus on a range of statistical insights.

    ### Matchup Predictor and Game Odds-

    **Detroit Lions:**
    61.8% win probability.-
    **Chicago Bears:**
    37.9%, according to ESPN Analytics.

    - The Lions are favored at -3.

    ### Season Overview and Performance Analysis-

    **Detroit Lions (9-3):**
    Averaging 27.25 points per game and conceding 23.83.

    - **Chicago Bears (4-8):
    ** Scoring 20.17 points on average, allowing 24.67 per game.

    ### Recent Head-to-Head

    - The Lions won their previous encounter this season 31-26.

    ### Key Team Performances-

    **Detroit Lions:**
    - Surpassed 23 points in 58.33% of their games, holding a 6-1 record in those matches.
    - Jared Goff's high passing yardage has been instrumental.

    - **Chicago Bears:**
    - Breached the 20-point mark in 41.67% of their games, with a 2-3 record in these matches.
    - Justin Fields' dual-threat capability is a key factor.

    ### Analysis of Common Opponents

    - Against teams like Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City, the Lions have outperformed the Bears, indicating stronger offensive output and defensive resilience.

    ### Home vs. Away Performance: Turf vs. Grass

    - **Detroit Lions:**
    - Strong performance at home on turf.
    - Mixed results away on grass and turf, demonstrating capability on both surfaces.
    - **Chicago Bears:**
    - Mixed results at home on grass.
    - Varied performance away, with struggles on grass.

    ### Betting Line Analysis: Detroit -3, Total 42.5

    - The line suggests a close game but favors the Lions.
    - Detroit's offensive strength makes betting on over 42.5 a prudent choice.

    ### Betting Advice and Insights-

    **Point Spread:**
    Detroit's consistent scoring makes them likely to cover the spread.
    - **Total Points:** The offensive trends and analysis favor an over bet.
    - **Moneyline:** Detroit's more consistent and formidable performance makes them the safer bet.
    - **Player Performance Bets:** Goff's passing yards and Fields' total yards are worth considering.

    ### Conclusion

    This comprehensive analysis underscores the Detroit Lions' position as favorites. Their consistent scoring ability, coupled with the Bears' defensive struggles and mixed home field advantage, suggests the Lions are likely to cover the spread and contribute to a total score over 42.5. The analysis of common opponents, along with home vs. away performance on different surfaces, provides a deeper insight into the likely outcomes of this intriguing matchup.

    **Final Betting Recommendations**
    1. *Lions -3.5*: This line has moved to 3.5 on same books, but I'd still take it considering the Lion's record vs common opponents and their overall success this season as compared to the Bears. I like this as a 2 unit play. LOSS
    2.
    **Over 42.5**: If I had to choose, I'd pick the Over here. I don't see either team's defense keep each other under 20 total points. LOSS

    BOL with your bets! Which matchup do you want next?

    Last edited by ddittie; 12-10-23 at 03:27 PM.

  5. #5
    ddittie
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    Let's simplify things for the remainder of games.

    ###Colts @ Bengals###

    Colts +2.5 (Opened -2.5)
    Total 43.5 (Opened 40.5)

    Colts Win 46.3%
    Bengals Win 53.4%

    Colts average 25 points per game and allow 24.67
    Bengals average 20.5 per game and allow 22.75

    Projected Score is something like Bengals 23 Colts 20.5
    Bengals have scored 23 pts or more in 6 games (50%) going 4-2.
    Colts have scored 20.5(21) pts or more in 10 games (83%) going 6-4. They have scored 23 pts or more in 7 games (58%) going 5-2.

    Over 43.5 seems to be the best bet here, and the Colts +2 or better, or money line. WIN


    ###Jags @ Browns###

    Jags +3 (Opened -3)
    Total 33.5 (Opened 38.5)

    Jags win 41.1%
    Browns win 58.6%

    Jags average 23.75 pts/game, and allow 21.58
    Browns average 21.5 pts/gm and allow 20.42

    Projected score opened around 21-18 in favor of Jags and has swung to around 18-15 for Browns. This swing most likely is due to both teams starting QBs being injured.

    Both instances have the Browns scoring around 18 pts, so let's look at that.
    Browns have scored 18 or more pts in 9 out of 12 games (75%) going 6-3.
    Jags have scored 18 or more pts in 9 out of 12 games (75%) going 8-1.

    Again both QBs are injured so their scoring should go down, but this is the NFL folks, the next guy up is always looking to prove themself. You don't get to this league being a chump!

    If I *HAD* to bet this, I'd go in favor of the Browns with a veteran backup in Flacco. The total is messy because of injuries.
    Last edited by ddittie; 12-10-23 at 03:28 PM.

  6. #6
    ddittie
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    Bet Ranking Based on Insights
    1. **Lions -3.5:** Strong record vs common opponents and overall season success. LOSS
    2. **Falcons -2.5:** Considering their recent win in Tampa and divisional game context. LOSS
    3. **Over 43.5 (Colts @ Bengals):** Both teams' scoring trends support this. WIN
    4. **Colts +2.5 or ML:** Consistent scoring ability makes them a solid pick. LOSS
    5. **Browns ML (Jags @ Browns):** Veteran backup QB could tip the scales. WIN
    6. **Under 40.5 (Buccaneers vs. Falcons):** Divisional trends suggest it, but with caution due to conflicting scoring patterns. LOSS
    7. **Bucs ML +110:** Slight edge according to ESPN Analytics, but riskier. WIN

    If you're following to this point, this is the order of confidence I'd rate each play. 1-5 being ones I would bet (and have bet).

    Last edited by ddittie; 12-10-23 at 03:30 PM.

  7. #7
    ddittie
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    Panthers @ Saints

    Panthers +6 (Opened +5.5)
    Total 38.5 (Opened 38.5)

    Panthers Win 26.3%
    Saints Win 73.5%

    Panthers average 15.92 points per game and allow 26.08
    Saints average 21.42 points per game and allow 21.25

    Projected Score is something like Saints 22 Panthers 16
    Saints have scored 23 pts or more in 5 games (41.67%) going 3-2.
    Panthers have scored 17 pts or more in 5 games (41.67%) going 0-5.


    Suggested Bets

    • Saints -6: Given the Saints' stronger overall performance and higher scoring average, they are likely to cover the spread against the struggling Panthers. WIN
    • Under 38.5: Considering the Panthers' low scoring average and the Saints' decent defense, the total score might stay under 38.5. WIN
    • Saints to Score Over 21.5 Points: The Saints have averaged above 21 points per game, making it likely they will surpass this mark against the Panthers. WIN
    Last edited by ddittie; 12-10-23 at 03:31 PM.

  8. #8
    ddittie
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    Not letting me paste my next jam, but I think I should post my actual bets as well for record keeping purposes.

    In order of when I placed the bet:

    Falcons -2 LOSS
    Lions -3.5 LOSS

    Browns -3 WIN
    Colts/Bengals O44 WIN

    Colts +2 LOSS
    Texans O17.5 LOSS
    Texans/Jets O33 WIN


    All 1 unit plays.
    Last edited by ddittie; 12-10-23 at 03:32 PM.

  9. #9
    ddittie
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    Update to bets:
    1. **Falcons -2:** 1 unit
    2. **Lions -3.5:** 1.5 units
    3. **Browns -3:** 1.5 units
    4. **Colts/Bengals Over 44:** 1.3 units
    5. **Colts +2:** 1.3 units
    6. **Texans Over 17.5 (vs. Jets):** 1.3 units
    7. **Texans/Jets Over 33:** 1.3 units
    8. **Browns Over 17 (vs. Jaguars):** 1.5 units
    9. **Ravens Money Line (vs. Rams) - Odds: -350:** 1.5 units to win 0.43 units
    10. **Lions Money Line (vs. Bears) - Odds: -165:** 1.5 units to win 0.91 units
    11. **Saints Over 21 (vs. Panthers):** 1.5 units
    12. **Falcons Money Line (vs. Buccaneers) - Odds: -130:** 2.6 units to win 2 units
    13. **Colts Money Line (vs. Bengals) - Odds: +115:** 2.3 units to win 2.65 units
    14. **Texans Over 17 (vs. Jets):** 1.3 units
    15. **Chiefs Money Line (vs. Bills) - Odds: -125:** 2.5 units to win 2 units
    16. **Eagles +3 (vs. Cowboys):** 5 units

    Currently down 2.84 units from NBA picks and the tail on Heisman.

    https://imgur.com/a/qsvOoPw
    Last edited by ddittie; 12-10-23 at 03:35 PM.

  10. #10
    2Sweeet
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    More titties!!!

  11. #11
    trobin31
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    Did you factor in the torrential rain in Jets game?

  12. #12
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by trobin31 View Post
    Did you factor in the torrential rain in Jets game?
    I'm on the Connecticut side of the Long Island Sound.
    Looks like light rain until 5pm and then we get croaked around 5pm.

    Fairfield University, Fairfield, CT hourly forecast | Microsoft Weather (msn.com)

  13. #13
    trobin31
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    I'm on the Connecticut side of the Long Island Sound.
    Looks like light rain until 5pm and then we get croaked around 5pm.

    Fairfield University, Fairfield, CT hourly forecast | Microsoft Weather (msn.com)
    So the rain isnt very heavy?

    I am sitting Stroud for Baker Mayfield in fantasy and Id hate to sit him if the weather is being over blown

  14. #14
    ddittie
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    Quote Originally Posted by trobin31 View Post
    Did you factor in the torrential rain in Jets game?
    At the time of my bet (yesterday) the forecast didn't have rain. Typically weather is relatively accurate the day before, but sometimes we get unlucky.

    But no, I didn't account for rain in the Jets game.

  15. #15
    ddittie
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    I got hammered hard that week! Took some drinking time off, and had to recover.

    Anywho:

    Merry Christmas, NFL Fans!

    As we dive into the festive spirit, let's not forget the exciting NFL action lined up with significant playoff implications!

    Today's conference game features the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Las Vegas Raiders, and it's more than just a regular matchup.

    **Analysis**:
    - The Chiefs, with a strong 82.5% chance to win (implied odds -475), haven't exactly dominated their opponents this season. They've been known for their slow starts, often catching up later in the game rather than leading from the front.
    - Looking at their scoring pattern, the Chiefs have struggled to rack up high points, particularly in the first half. They've exceeded 27.5 points in only 21.43% of their games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring games than the odds suggest.
    - On the flip side, the Raiders, still in the hunt for a playoff spot, have everything to play for. An early lead by the Raiders could shake things up and make this game even more interesting.

    **Betting Strategy**:
    - With the UNDER 27.5 for the Chiefs at -145 (implying a 59.18% chance), our analysis shows there's value here, considering the Chiefs' actual performance rate of scoring under 27.5 points is around 78.57%.
    - For those looking to bet on the Chiefs' Moneyline, waiting for a live bet might be the way to go. If the Raiders can jump to an early lead, causing the Chiefs' odds to drop, a live bet closer to even money would offer great value.

    Personally, I like to wait for the Chiefs to be down by about 10 points to catch a more favorable Moneyline.

    Enjoy the game and the festive season, and remember, responsible betting is key! Let's hope for an exciting game with lots of strategic plays and potential surprises. Merry Christmas and happy betting!

  16. #16
    ddittie
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    **Additional Insight: Giants Scoring Prospects**
    1. **Betting on the Giants O14.5 at -140**:
    - Probability of winning (scoring 15 or more): 35%
    - Number of bets: 10
    - Bet amount: $20
    - Payout per win: $14.29 (calculated as $20 / (140/100))

    **Wins**:
    - Expected wins: 10 bets * 35% = 3.5 wins
    - Total win payout: 3.5 wins * $14.29 = $50.015

    **Losses**:
    - Expected losses: 10 bets - 3.5 wins = 6.5 losses
    - Total loss amount: 6.5 losses * $20 = $130

    **Net Gain/Loss**:
    - Net: $50.015 (win) - $130 (loss) = -$79.985

    **ROI**:
    - ROI: -$79.985 / ($20 * 10 bets) = -39.9925%

    2. **Betting on the Giants U14.5 at +110**:

    - Probability of winning (scoring under 14.5): 65%
    - Payout per win: $22 (calculated as $20 * (110/100))

    **Wins**: - Expected wins: 10 bets * 65% = 6.5 wins
    - Total win payout: 6.5 wins * $22 = $143

    **Losses**:
    - Expected losses: 10 bets - 6.5 wins = 3.5 losses
    - Total loss amount: 3.5 losses * $20 = $70

    **Net Gain/Loss**:

    - Net: $143 (win) - $70 (loss) = $73

    **ROI**: - ROI: $73 / ($20 * 10 bets) = 36.5%
    Last edited by ddittie; 12-25-23 at 08:29 AM.

  17. #17
    ddittie
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    Get the money line bets on the Chiefs now!!

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