1. #1
    homie1975
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    very plausible College Football Playoff chaos scenario next weekend

    the only real unprobable result is Iowa beating Michigan.

    but consider this.

    what would be fun is if FSU beats L'ville (who got softened up by Kentucky today) and Oregon beats Wash in a close one and Bama beats Georgia in a close one and finally, Iowa takes out UM in a close one, and Texas wins the B12 over okla state.

    sounds like a lot of ifs ifs ifs but the only real longshot there is Iowa over UM, everyone else is either favored or an extremely short and lively dog.

    then you have some mayhem in the final year of the 4 team Playoff and it looks like this:

    - oregon pac 12 champ 1 close loss to wash. best win Wash
    - wash pac 12 runner up 1 close loss to p12 champion oregon. best win oregon
    - bama sec champ 1 close loss to b12 champ texas. best win georgia
    - georgia sec runner up 1 close loss to sec champ bama. best win ole miss?
    - michigan b1g runner up 1 close loss to b1g champ iowa. best win ohio state
    - ohio state only 1 loss and it is to b1g runner up michigan. best win notre dame
    - texas big12 champion only 1 loss to oklahoma. best win Bama.
    - florida state only undefeated team and league champion undefeated but without their spiritual leader jordan travis. best win ??? duke? clemson? miami? l'ville?

    8 teams who all have a very strong argument comparatively to be in the CFB Final Four

  2. #2
    bjb7223
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    the only real unprobable result is Iowa beating Michigan.

    but consider this.

    what would be fun is if FSU beats L'ville (who got softened up by Kentucky today) and Oregon beats Wash in a close one and Bama beats Georgia in a close one and finally, Iowa takes out UM in a close one, and Texas wins the B12 over okla state.

    sounds like a lot of ifs ifs ifs but the only real longshot there is Iowa over UM, everyone else is either favored or an extremely short and lively dog.

    then you have some mayhem in the final year of the 4 team Playoff and it looks like this:

    - oregon pac 12 champ 1 close loss to wash. best win Wash
    - wash pac 12 runner up 1 close loss to p12 champion oregon. best win oregon
    - bama sec champ 1 close loss to b12 champ texas. best win georgia
    - georgia sec runner up 1 close loss to sec champ bama. best win ole miss?
    - michigan b1g runner up 1 close loss to b1g champ iowa. best win ohio state
    - ohio state only 1 loss and it is to b1g runner up michigan. best win notre dame
    - texas big12 champion only 1 loss to oklahoma. best win Bama.
    - florida state only undefeated team and league champion undefeated but without their spiritual leader jordan travis. best win ??? duke? clemson? miami? l'ville?

    8 teams who all have a very strong argument comparatively to be in the CFB Final Four
    Fauda Fauda Fauda

  3. #3
    hehfest
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    Georgia's best win was Mizzou or Ole Miss there schedule was not exactly lights out either. If they lose to Bama and Oregon beats Wsh I drop Georgia out considering Mich, Tex, and FSU all win (if they all win, etc.). The big question then would be which 1 win team gets in? Texas beat Bama. Oregon and Wsh both beat each other. Ohio St. beat Notre Dame and Penn State and took UM to the last possession.

    The key to me is if you have 0 losses after champ game and are from a power conference I have to auto-playoff you.

  4. #4
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by hehfest View Post
    Georgia's best win was Mizzou or Ole Miss there schedule was not exactly lights out either. If they lose to Bama and Oregon beats Wsh I drop Georgia out considering Mich, Tex, and FSU all win (if they all win, etc.). The big question then would be which 1 win team gets in? Texas beat Bama. Oregon and Wsh both beat each other. Ohio St. beat Notre Dame and Penn State and took UM to the last possession.

    The key to me is if you have 0 losses after champ game and are from a power conference I have to auto-playoff you.
    The CFP committee can take the Jordan travis injury for FSU into account if they want to, just like cbb tourney committee can in NCAA hoops when deciding the seeding.

    It's written into their criteria.

    Being undefeated and winning the conf championship can be used as tiebreakers but their job is to get the most deserving 4 teams in their eyes, into the 5 team playoff.

  5. #5
    asiagambler
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    Too many what ifs. Let's just see what happens

  6. #6
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    Too many what ifs. Let's just see what happens
    you are missing the point.

    the last 9 seasons 2014 thru 2022 of the CFP the top 4 teams have been very easy to pick.

    this year, it will be extremely tough as 6 to 8 teams will be deserving.

  7. #7
    Shark
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    Most of this is very unlikely.

  8. #8
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shark View Post
    Most of this is very unlikely.
    only unlikely things are Okie State beating Texas and Iowa beating Michigan.

    everything else very viable.

  9. #9
    Eddy Munny
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    If Florida State wins they deserve to be in... Rodemaker isn't chopped liver and he'll be even better by the time the CFP rolls around.

  10. #10
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    you are missing the point.

    the last 9 seasons 2014 thru 2022 of the CFP the top 4 teams have been very easy to pick.

    this year, it will be extremely tough as 6 to 8 teams will be deserving.
    I bet when the dust settles there will be very little controversy, maybe 2 teams for the final spot

  11. #11
    Thefix13
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    Breathe...

  12. #12
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    I bet when the dust settles there will be very little controversy, maybe 2 teams for the final spot
    probably, but this is the most teams with reasonable arguments for the 4 spots since i can remember.

    just in time for the 12 teamer next year.

    LOL

  13. #13
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy Munny View Post
    If Florida State wins they deserve to be in... Rodemaker isn't chopped liver and he'll be even better by the time the CFP rolls around.
    agree with first part.

    not sure about last part.

    Rodemaker an unknown.

    we will find out more when they play in ACC CCG with some more pressure than playing a very average FLA team in swamp.

  14. #14
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thefix13 View Post
    Breathe...
    haha

    this is fun !!

  15. #15
    homie1975
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    Oregon is -9.5 over Wash. probable two P12 teams at 12-1 with Oregon as champ.

    is Washington then out?

    Texas -14 over Okie Lite. Texas 12-1 and B12 champ are they in?

    Georgia -5 over Bama. close spread. Assume Bama "upset". two 12-1 SEC teams.

    is Georgia out?

    FSU only -3.5 over L'ville. Look out !!

    UM -22.5 over Iowa. goodnight sweetheart as Lee Corso would say. michigannnnn bigggg !!

  16. #16
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    I bet when the dust settles there will be very little controversy, maybe 2 teams for the final spot
    actually, after further thought on this, i disagree.

    i believe at least 6 possibly 7 teams will have strong arguments for the Top 4 slots.

  17. #17
    asiagambler
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    Looks like Alabama beating Georgia might be what you want homie. Then you'd have Oregon/Wash, Texas, Georgia and maybe FSU for 2 spots

  18. #18
    Eddy Munny
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    If Washington loses, they're out. I realize that would only give them one loss but this week is a de facto playoff game. Win and you're in, no need for lobbying after a loss this late in the season at a neutral site.

    If Oregon loses, they're obviously out because they'd have two. If Alabama upsets GA, Texas gets in over them due to the H2H in Tuscaloosa. You could make a case for Georgia being out if they lose because their strength of schedule is crap and they're playing in Atlanta. Again, this late in the year you need to win. The playoffs are now.

  19. #19
    Eddy Munny
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    It's probably going to be Georgia, Texas, Oregon, and FSU... based on how I think things unfold.

  20. #20
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy Munny View Post
    It's probably going to be Georgia, Texas, Oregon, and FSU... based on how I think things unfold.
    Michigan ??

  21. #21
    hehfest
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    Oregon is -9.5 over Wash. probable two P12 teams at 12-1 with Oregon as champ.

    is Washington then out?

    Texas -14 over Okie Lite. Texas 12-1 and B12 champ are they in?

    Georgia -5 over Bama. close spread. Assume Bama "upset". two 12-1 SEC teams.

    is Georgia out?

    FSU only -3.5 over L'ville. Look out !!

    UM -22.5 over Iowa. goodnight sweetheart as Lee Corso would say. michigannnnn bigggg !!

    Why don't you just forecast every game in next year's championship games while you are at it - and can we please get a paragraph for each game not a 1 sentence write-up?

  22. #22
    hehfest
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    Michigan ??
    He already has Iowa as a LOCK to beat Michigan.

  23. #23
    hehfest
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy Munny View Post
    If Washington loses, they're out. I realize that would only give them one loss but this week is a de facto playoff game. Win and you're in, no need for lobbying after a loss this late in the season at a neutral site.

    If Oregon loses, they're obviously out because they'd have two. If Alabama upsets GA, Texas gets in over them due to the H2H in Tuscaloosa. You could make a case for Georgia being out if they lose because their strength of schedule is crap and they're playing in Atlanta. Again, this late in the year you need to win. The playoffs are now.

    I agree and fully support this statement. Yup, if Georgia loses than they are probably out unless UM, FSU both lose.

  24. #24
    asiagambler
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    Would they really leave Georgia out if they lose to Bama? I guess they have to put Texas in over them

  25. #25
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy Munny View Post
    If Washington loses, they're out. I realize that would only give them one loss but this week is a de facto playoff game. Win and you're in, no need for lobbying after a loss this late in the season at a neutral site.

    If Oregon loses, they're obviously out because they'd have two. If Alabama upsets GA, Texas gets in over them due to the H2H in Tuscaloosa. You could make a case for Georgia being out if they lose because their strength of schedule is crap and they're playing in Atlanta. Again, this late in the year you need to win. The playoffs are now.
    not necessarily, if they lose in a tough, hard-fought close game, such as the first meeting when they edged out Oregon.

    see TCU 2023 who lost in the B12 championship game by 3 points and still made the CFP field of 4.

  26. #26
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy Munny View Post
    If Washington loses, they're out. I realize that would only give them one loss but this week is a de facto playoff game. Win and you're in, no need for lobbying after a loss this late in the season at a neutral site.

    If Oregon loses, they're obviously out because they'd have two. If Alabama upsets GA, Texas gets in over them due to the H2H in Tuscaloosa. You could make a case for Georgia being out if they lose because their strength of schedule is crap and they're playing in Atlanta. Again, this late in the year you need to win. The playoffs are now.
    I 99.9999% guarantee you that if Bama beats Georgia to win the SEC and finish 12-1 they will get in the field of 4.

    the committee can say their loss was to 12-1 B12 champ Texas while Texas's loss was to 10-2 OU.

    committee can also power rank SEC over B12 and say Bama had tougher slate start to finish.

  27. #27
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy Munny View Post
    It's probably going to be Georgia, Texas, Oregon, and FSU... based on how I think things unfold.
    ZERO chance UM loses to Iowa and missed the Final 4

  28. #28
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post

    Michigan ??
    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post

    ZERO chance UM loses to Iowa and missed the Final 4
    Gimme a break lol, I spaced them off since they're playing a paper doll this week. Of course they're beating Iowa.

    Hopefully Louisville does everyone a favor and pulls the upset this week because otherwise you can't omit FSU. They are still a very talented team even without JT. I guess I have Georgia, Oregon, FSU, and Michigan in based on how I view things unfolding.

    However, if Bama springs the upset, which isn't all that crazy since the Dawgs have mostly been on easy street this year, then Texas replaces Georgia in the aforementioned Final Four.

  29. #29
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    not necessarily, if they lose in a tough, hard-fought close game, such as the first meeting when they edged out Oregon.

    see TCU 2023 who lost in the B12 championship game by 3 points and still made the CFP field of 4.
    The field is different this year, though. Washington has not exactly lived up to their billing in more than a few games. They've managed to pull them out, to their credit, but if they lose to Oregon then obviously decisions have to be made. If the Ducks win UW becomes an easy cut in my estimation and I imagine the committee would feel the same way.

  30. #30
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy Munny View Post
    Gimme a break lol, I spaced them off since they're playing a paper doll this week. Of course they're beating Iowa.

    Hopefully Louisville does everyone a favor and pulls the upset this week because otherwise you can't omit FSU. They are still a very talented team even without JT. I guess I have Georgia, Oregon, FSU, and Michigan in based on how I view things unfolding.

    However, if Bama springs the upset, which isn't all that crazy since the Dawgs have mostly been on easy street this year, then Texas replaces Georgia in the aforementioned Final Four.
    Would they really shut out the SEC if Georgia loses? Most years we would be talking about both teams making it in that scenario

  31. #31
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    Would they really shut out the SEC if Georgia loses? Most years we would be talking about both teams making it in that scenario
    I disagree w Eddy, i think if Bama upsets Georgia they are in as 12-1 SEC champs.

    that texas loss feels like it happened two years ago, it was game two i think, forever ago.

  32. #32
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by hehfest View Post
    Why don't you just forecast every game in next year's championship games while you are at it - and can we please get a paragraph for each game not a 1 sentence write-up?


    why must you bust my balls, Bruh ??

  33. #33
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    Would they really shut out the SEC if Georgia loses? Most years we would be talking about both teams making it in that scenario
    Probably not. Those would be my picks, not necessarily who I think the committee would pick.

  34. #34
    budwiser
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    if bama beats ga they go along with ga. michigan is going, then 3rd spot big debate

    thankfully last year we have to deal with this

  35. #35
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser View Post
    if bama beats ga they go along with ga. michigan is going, then 3rd spot big debate

    thankfully last year we have to deal with this
    i think it depends on how badly Bama were to beat Georgia.

    double digits and in control the whole game? maybe GA is left out in that case.

    it is still a beauty contest.

    BTW next year and beyond with the 12 team playoff you will need to deal with potentially a 2+ loss team winning their conference champ game and getting in.

    at least in the 18 years of the BCS and 10 years of the 4 team playoff, only one 2 loss team got in (LSU 2007).

    imagine if Iowa upsets UM because JJ McCarthy gets his ankle twisted or worse, and Iowa wins the game.

    they would make it into the 12 team field as B1G champion but they would not make it into the 4 team playoff.

    just food for thought.

    IMO the last 9 years the committee got the correct 4 teams every time. 36 for 36 in my count.

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