1. #71
    homie1975
    homie1975's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-24-13
    Posts: 14,803
    Betpoints: 10732

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Feel good about my Nuggets ticket. Not sure I'll be betting the individual games in this series.
    they are barely favored over the Lakers

    are you sure you do not want to hedge a bit?

    don't the numbers call for a hedge ?

  2. #72
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    they are barely favored over the Lakers

    are you sure you do not want to hedge a bit?

    don't the numbers call for a hedge ?
    Not really a hedge-guy. Always an expense for more bets.

    If it's not +EV, it's not for me. Only time I'd consider a hedge is if I'm facing a big payday and I decide to book some profit.

    This one is a small bet. Just taking my portion of the EV.

  3. #73
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Playing: 1-unit_Miami (gm1) +7.5

    ...No opinion on the series. This is just a spot-play. After the performance that Tatum had, I think it's only natural to be flat here.
    Re-bet: Heat +8.5.

    See some reasons for them to hang here.

  4. #74
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    1-unit: Lakers +7
    ...Just think it's too much.

  5. #75
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    1-unit: Lakers +7
    ...Just think it's too much.
    Wow. Lakers hang the #.

    If I was LA, I'd be a little worried. Davis had a great game, and they still lost by 6.

  6. #76
    gauchojake
    Have Some Asthma
    gauchojake's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-17-10
    Posts: 33,637
    Betpoints: 13779

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Wow. Lakers hang the #.

    If I was LA, I'd be a little worried. Davis had a great game, and they still lost by 6.
    Denver played a nearly perfect game and only won by 6 is another way to look at it.

  7. #77
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Denver played a nearly perfect game and only won by 6 is another way to look at it.
    Fair comment. Maybe i had one too many Schlitz.

  8. #78
    TheMoneyShot
    TheMoneyShot's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-14-07
    Posts: 28,681
    Betpoints: 23701

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Playing: Celts (gm 7) -7.

    And thanks to Money Shot for encouraging me to play the Sixers in gm4. Extra winner that I would not have had.
    Momentum is a difference maker in gambling... you made the call. Great win.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat

  9. #79
    gauchojake
    Have Some Asthma
    gauchojake's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-17-10
    Posts: 33,637
    Betpoints: 13779

    Chucky I'm a Lakers fan so take my opinion with a grain of salt lol. I think the Lakers found some interesting matchups to exploit but Denver will counter and we will see how it shakes out. Should be a good series.

  10. #80
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Chucky I'm a Lakers fan so take my opinion with a grain of salt lol. I think the Lakers found some interesting matchups to exploit but Denver will counter and we will see how it shakes out. Should be a good series.
    Salud, Jake. I've made some comments about this series. I really don't think James is at an age where he can CARRY a team.

    For the Lakers to win the series, I think they need two things:
    1) Davis can't get injured.
    2) Somebody like Reaves/Vanderbilt has to play beyond expectation.

  11. #81
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    1-unit play: Miami (gm3) +3.5
    ...You can surely do better than -110 juice on this #.

    I've posted my thoughts on this series several times:
    1) How can Miami be improved when really only TWO of their starters are > average? (Butler, Adebayo).
    2) I've posted several times that I think they got BETTER when Herro dropped out. Herro is a black-hole, and his defense must not be so good (either).
    3) The coaching edge is obvious. Spoelstra is now a veteran, he's been thru it. I have to question what the Celtic coach is doing there.

    I don't at all believe in any automatic Bounce-back spot. Even if it's priced into the #.

    Based on current form, I think this is value. The one matchup I'll be watching is Adebayo vs Robert Williams. If Williams neutralizes Adebayo, it will be very hard for the Heat to win.

  12. #82
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    1-unit play: Miami (gm3) +3.5
    ...You can surely do better than -110 juice on this #.

    I've posted my thoughts on this series several times:
    1) How can Miami be improved when really only TWO of their starters are > average? (Butler, Adebayo).
    2) I've posted several times that I think they got BETTER when Herro dropped out. Herro is a black-hole, and his defense must not be so good (either).
    3) The coaching edge is obvious. Spoelstra is now a veteran, he's been thru it. I have to question what the Celtic coach is doing there.

    I don't at all believe in any automatic Bounce-back spot. Even if it's priced into the #.

    Based on current form, I think this is value. The one matchup I'll be watching is Adebayo vs Robert Williams. If Williams neutralizes Adebayo, it will be very hard for the Heat to win.
    1-unit play: Celtics (Gm4) +1.5.

    ...Hard to believe in them. Just think the # has moved too far.

  13. #83
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    OK, got a price I'm very happy with. Playing: Denver to win West (+130).

    Way I see it: *PHX might win Gm3, Nuggets would still be > 65% to win series.

    I really think the Lakers/Warriors are more name than substance. Feel like those teams are phony, as far as going on a deep run. Go Nuggets, get em Jokic.
    This bet gets there. And really, they got there in style.

    Amazing footnote: *This is Denver's FIRST Conference title.

    They made the ABA finals one year (and lost). But that was when the ABA was crumbling. There was technically no CONFERENCES that particular season b/c teams were dropping out.

  14. #84
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    1-unit play: Celtics (Gm4) +1.5.

    ...Hard to believe in them. Just think the # has moved too far.
    Re-betting this. Another unit on: Celtics (Gm4) +1.5.
    ...Simply b/c the public is so tilted on this game. Line moved substantially. Go, Boston.

  15. #85
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Re-betting this. Another unit on: Celtics (Gm4) +1.5.
    ...Simply b/c the public is so tilted on this game. Line moved substantially. Go, Boston.
    Wasn't going to bet this game. But I see enough information pointing me this direction:

    1-unit: Celtics (gm5) -8.

  16. #86
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Wasn't going to bet this game. But I see enough information pointing me this direction:

    1-unit: Celtics (gm5) -8.
    Re-betting: 1-unit: Celts -8 (1.88).

    ...# is moving, I'm paying some extra juice. But I think it's moving for a reason.

    Referenced the Vincent injury. That means the guards have faced cluster-injuries. Rotation has really changed, might take a big-game from Duncan Robinson for Heat to be competitive here.

  17. #87
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    1-unit: Celtics (gm7) -7.5

    1) I question how much gas the Heat have left? They've been playing short-handed for much of the playoffs.

    2) Subjective comment: always feel like you have to beat the leprechauns when you play at Boston in Game 7. Ask the Bucks in 1987. I can't believe they let Tommy Heinsohn check in as 3rd-ref at the last TV timeout.

    Good Luck. Honestly, could go either way. We'll see.

  18. #88
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    1-unit: Celtics (gm7) -7.5

    1) I question how much gas the Heat have left? They've been playing short-handed for much of the playoffs.

    2) Subjective comment: always feel like you have to beat the leprechauns when you play at Boston in Game 7. Ask the Bucks in 1987. I can't believe they let Tommy Heinsohn check in as 3rd-ref at the last TV timeout.

    Good Luck. Honestly, could go either way. We'll see.
    Re-betting: Celtics (gm7) -7.

    *# has drifted lower.

    This game has been discussed ad-infinitum. Good Luck to anyone in action (on either side).

  19. #89
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Re-betting: Celtics (gm7) -7.

    *# has drifted lower.

    This game has been discussed ad-infinitum. Good Luck to anyone in action (on either side).
    First loss in a while. But this was a bad one. Props to the Heat bettors.

  20. #90
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Playing: Nuggets -8 (1.89) for Game 2.

    My logic:
    1) If Herro plays (at all), that's advantage to Denver. He shouldn't play again this year.
    2) Martin's subpar play is a bad sign. Only Mazzulla could let a guy go on a heat-check to steal the series.
    3) I do like the Miami at Denver trend. 0-6 L6 games at Denver, average loss of 12 pts.

    I think the number is cheap. And people are LOOKING for this series to get interesting.

    Looks like a short series to me. Plus, Jokic is laser-focused. He knows he's close, and he's un-nerved.

  21. #91
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Playing: Heat (gm3) +3.

    ...Have posted my thoughts in other threads. Think this is good line-value:

    1) Spoelstra may have found a good matchup. Can use KLove's size to defend. Surely he can find more spots to use Martin's offense.

    2) I think Malone's post-game response was real and raw. If the Nuggets don't bear down on defense, the Heat shooters will take advantage.

  22. #92
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 30,533
    Betpoints: 27697

    Adding a unit: Heat +3.5.

First 123
Top