1. #1
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,633
    Betpoints: 32331

    ALCS Game 1 and Series Toronto at Cleveland

    Game 1 pick UNDER 7.5 runs

    2014 Cy Young award winner and probable 2016 Cy Young award winning pitcher Kluber coming off a no run 7 K 7 inning outing versus hard hitting Red Sox was 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA and a nasty 1.06 WH/IP squaring off against Marco Estrada who despite a 9-9- record had a career year posting 1.12 WH/IP and 3.48 ERA

    Fireworks will come later in the series, feeling here is both teams come out a little tight, Kluber is a strikeout machine, while not quite Kershaw elite, is in a class of a few starters half notch below.
    Indians bats will get theirs too later in the series, just not tonight, expect pitchers duel.

    Inclined to bet Kluber and Indians in game 1, reluctant to lay -140 will pass.

    INDIANS +120 to win series

    There's your value play right here.
    With Salazar the Indians have the better starting pitching, without Salazar the two teams are even in this series regarding starting pitching.

    Cleveland is forced to use Tomlin as their number 2 starter, and that's not what he is, he's a middle of the rotation guy that can eat up six innings for your bullpen, he's not your prototypical number 2 guy, Kluber is a big boy ace though, Tomlin was effective vs. Red Sox in prior series however.

    Undecided (most likely Trevor Bauer) In game 3 is capable, but I've been disappointed with him.

    Don't sleep on Blue Jays starters, used to be a butt end of a joke Toronto now has a solid core at the front end of the rotation with Estrada now who has put up good numbers past two regular seasons, and from out nowhere JA Happ wins 20 games, never in your life did you expect 20 game winner to be attached in front of JA Happ's name. That wasn't a fluke, his 1.12 WH/IP across 32 starts proves this is not a mistake. Sanchez was a surprise 15 game winner, but don't trust him in big games, last start he got clobbered. Getting back to JA Happ, his post season numbers are brutal, he's a bad post season pitcher.

    Running out of time here.

    Everyone knows about the Blue Jays and the way they mash long balls, Encarncion, Joey Bats, Tulo, JD and on and on and on, what the casual fan does not know is Indians hit for a higher slugging percentage. Indians have scored more runs, Indians have clear advantage in batting average, but because Toronto does walk a lot, the OBA is wash.

    Toronto has much more power, Indians overall have the better hitting.
    Defense, you can make a case for Toronto being the better of the two, Donaldson is a stud at third base, and Pillar is a whiz in the outfield yet if you are outside of Toronto you would not know this.

    Everything is pretty much even up until you get to the bullpens.

    Here's the difference the way I see it in the series.

    Cleveland has Allen and Miller in the 'pen, and Toronto does not.
    Tribe in seven games.

    INIDANS to win the Series +120

    200 gets you 240

    Under 7.5 runs in game 1

    1* 100 dollar play there.

    Crack of Bud or two.
    Sit your ass in front of the big screen
    And enjoy some big boy hardball fellas.

    Best of luck
    Points Awarded:

    Money23 gave stevenash 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Louisvillekid1

  2. #2
    fieryking
    fieryking's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-30-15
    Posts: 114
    Betpoints: 550

    I like your analysis and calls.

    I'm on Indians -137 game 1, almost passed as well

  3. #3
    CanuckG
    CanuckG's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-23-10
    Posts: 21,951
    Betpoints: 584

    Jays better starters and offense. Indians better D and bullpen. Should be a good series.

  4. #4
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,633
    Betpoints: 32331

    Quote Originally Posted by fieryking View Post
    I like your analysis and calls.

    I'm on Indians -137 game 1, almost passed as well
    Appreciate your words.
    Thanks.

  5. #5
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,633
    Betpoints: 32331

    Quote Originally Posted by CanuckG View Post
    Jays better starters and offense. Indians better D and bullpen. Should be a good series.
    I'm expecting seven games.
    Both teams can pick it, Happ is awful in October tough, and can you trust Sanchez in a big game?

  6. #6
    Booya711
    Big Dikk Energy
    Booya711's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-20-11
    Posts: 27,328
    Betpoints: 16097

    I hope Cleveland beats the fukk out of these Canadians....fukk em

    talk and fukk with Texans...Canadians will be trashed

  7. #7
    Bostongambler
    Bostongambler's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-01-08
    Posts: 35,930
    Betpoints: 14308

    Nice write up Steve Nash

  8. #8
    xdodger19
    xdodger19's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-20-12
    Posts: 18,014
    Betpoints: 6219

    strong stuff

  9. #9
    pilebuck13
    pilebuck13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-15-15
    Posts: 17,889
    Betpoints: 1717

    Good hit Nash

  10. #10
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,633
    Betpoints: 32331

    Game 2 ALCS pick

    CLEVELAND INDIANS +117 - GAME 2

    I have to stay with the Cleveland Indians

    a) you can't fade this post season winning streak.
    Indians have not lost a post season game yet.
    Respect the streak and all that.
    Indians are on a special magic carpet ride

    b) I like home dogs.
    Getting +117 in a game where I think the home team should be -105 or -110 I'm on 8 days a week.

    c) Indians (depending on what metrics you use are a top five offense versus LHP, and the last time I saw Happ pitch he was left handed.

    d) Even though the sample size is not very large, JA Happ is a terrible post season pitcher with a WH/IP almost touching 2.00

    I'm buying 100 dollars worth of "Sons of Wahoo"
    Indians 100 gets 117 - GAME 2

    p.s. Not touching Cubs or game one Cubs
    Why? I don't lay 2 to 1 in baseball.

  11. #11
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,633
    Betpoints: 32331

    Game 3 ALCS Prop Bet I like

    Cleveland Team Total over 3.5 runs

    Stroman has given up 21 HR's this season, has an ERA of almost 4 1/2.
    Indians are guaranteed a ninth inning at bat (very important) and even though they scored 2 runs in each of the last 2 games, expect them to resume raking tonight.

    I like this better than the game total because of Indians lock down bullpen.
    Points Awarded:

    Money23 gave stevenash 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  12. #12
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,633
    Betpoints: 32331

    Game 4 ALCS Pick

    CLEVELAND INDIANS +113 OVER TORONTO

    Stick a fork in the Blue Jays, they are done.
    Toronto is to the American League as the Nationals are to the NL, being the next relevant series they win will be their first one.

    Blue Jays are DOA, I expect them to roll over and play dead tonight.
    Kluber all night, Indians are on a mission from God, Blue Jays just suck when it matters in October

  13. #13
    jazzyj7
    jazzyj7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-02-09
    Posts: 859
    Betpoints: 1160

    Damn you killed this series. nice predictions.

  14. #14
    tennis005
    tennis005's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-27-14
    Posts: 386
    Betpoints: 5096

    How have you been Steve, I can't believe I missed this thread. I was leaning towards Indians, just can't believe how bad Jays hitting is. Do you think this game goes over 7.5?

Top