1. #1
    Snowball
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    For reasons stated below I am taking Carolina -3 (-110)

    The Carolina Panthers are the correct bet this week
    to go to the Superbowl and it's fine to lay 3 as that is no more
    than the standard home-field advantage displacement.
    Carolina has far more than your average home-field advantage.
    They are undefeated at BkofAma Stadium this season.
    Whereas Arizona was fortunate to squeak by a tired Packer team,
    Carolina always kept Seattle at arms-length. They scored 31 points
    against Seattle; if they can do that they can do it plus+ to Arizona.
    Arizona's defense is not going to stop Cam Newton.
    Cam has established targets to throw the ball to. I can see Olsen
    gaining plenty of extra yardage against the Arizona midfield.
    It's going to be a confusing day for the Cardinals on the DL.
    Panthers can game them any way they want.
    Arizona does not have a game-changing running back. They
    are going to have to rely on the pass to stay competitive.
    Unfortunately they are facing one of the most aggressive pass
    defenses in the NFL. Carolina is tied for the lead this year
    in forced fumbles (22). Arizona also accomplished 22 forced
    fumbles, however the Carolina offense actually has the lowest
    number of committed fumbles in the NFL. That is noteworthy.
    Carolina also has a strong sack resume, ranking 6th.
    Did I mention yet that the Carolina defense leads the NFL
    in interceptions ? Number one. Carolina sports the highest
    turnover differential in the NFL, at +20. For some perspective,
    the nearest competitor was Kansas City at +14.
    Looking at Arizona's schedule, I suspect they aren't ready for
    this Carolina offense either. They can plan-up but on the field
    they have not faced any significant dual-threat quarterbacks.
    It's one thing to beat up the 49ers and Rams, Baltimore
    and Cleveland Browns, but quite another to stop Cam Newton.
    Not so much that they can't physically stop him if they are fast
    to identify a run option, but rather that they have not been challenged
    by an offense that presents full spectrum threats like Carolina does.
    On the other hand, Carolina has won all it's games against pass threats
    that are on par with Arizona, such as the Giants, Saints, Falcons,
    Colts and Packers.
    This Sunday I'll be taking the Panthers -3, undefeated at home,
    for reasons stated above. Take note, that if you lean Arizona in
    this game because Carolina has a habit of coughing up big leads
    (but winning anyway), coach Rivera and his team are on that.
    Anything can happen in the NFL playoffs, but I'm confident that
    Carolina is the best bet on the board, and that they will be
    in Superbowl 50.

  2. #2
    stevek173
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    Very nice writeup man, keep up the good work

  3. #3
    Snowball
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    btw, I'm also including Denver ML with Carolina -3 in a +356 parlay.
    what's pushed me over the line to take Denver is the Jerod Mayo injury.
    Jamie Collins also left the KC game with a bad back. I do not believe this
    Patriot defense can be trusted to contain Denver's offense. Was it not for
    a large number of dropped balls and missed receptions, Denver would have
    scored more against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has a better pass rush than NE.
    NE backfield is a containment style that I do not think matches up very well
    against Manning's strong points. Manning is a master at picking holes in defenses.
    This suggests Denver could fare quite well in time of possession. They also have
    a solid running game. Of course Denver also has a better defense than NE.
    A very physical defense that is likely to aggravate Edelman and Gronkowski
    a lot more than KC did. Mile High is a difficult place for the Pats to win.
    Of course, New England is the favorite and they deserve to be only warily wagered
    against, mostly due to the unique traits Tom Brady brings to the field.
    This being acknowledged, I can't justify taking New England on a matchup basis.
    Denver is going to score quite a bit. I will fade the prospect that New England can
    score more on the road vs. this Broncos D.
    I also really like the storyline for Superbowl 50 to be Manning vs. Newton.
    It's old vs. new; one last shot at glory for the beleaguered hall of famer.

  4. #4
    NavsPicks
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    Arizona has better D than Seattle.

  5. #5
    Hickeyc31
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    Mayo never even played that much this year. All this tells me is that Freeny is probably ready to come back and play. They have guys that are nearly as good as Mayo waiting to come in and replace him.
    Last edited by Hickeyc31; 01-20-16 at 12:00 PM.

  6. #6
    sweethook
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    btw, I'm also including Denver ML with Carolina -3 in a +356 parlay.
    what's pushed me over the line to take Denver is the Jerod Mayo injury.
    Jamie Collins also left the KC game with a bad back. I do not believe this
    Patriot defense can be trusted to contain Denver's offense. Was it not for
    a large number of dropped balls and missed receptions, Denver would have
    scored more against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has a better pass rush than NE.
    NE backfield is a containment style that I do not think matches up very well
    against Manning's strong points. Manning is a master at picking holes in defenses.
    This suggests Denver could fare quite well in time of possession. They also have
    a solid running game. Of course Denver also has a better defense than NE.
    A very physical defense that is likely to aggravate Edelman and Gronkowski
    a lot more than KC did. Mile High is a difficult place for the Pats to win.
    Of course, New England is the favorite and they deserve to be only warily wagered
    against, mostly due to the unique traits Tom Brady brings to the field.
    This being acknowledged, I can't justify taking New England on a matchup basis.
    Denver is going to score quite a bit. I will fade the prospect that New England can
    score more on the road vs. this Broncos D.
    I also really like the storyline for Superbowl 50 to be Manning vs. Newton.
    It's old vs. new; one last shot at glory for the beleaguered hall of famer.
    this makes money sir , i like it

  7. #7
    chico2663
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    i think if carolina d gets any pass rush than carson will penetrate up. he has happy feet and always has. as far as denver wtf were you watching to even suggest denver has a running game. I took these guys all year in fan duel and they sucked. i do hope your right on both predictions. good luck.

  8. #8
    Snowball
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    Quote Originally Posted by chico2663 View Post
    i think if carolina d gets any pass rush than carson will penetrate up. he has happy feet and always has. as far as denver wtf were you watching to even suggest denver has a running game. I took these guys all year in fan duel and they sucked. i do hope your right on both predictions. good luck.
    you don't like Anderson ? Anderson and Hillman are a decent combo. Pats lost their two
    best backs.. relying on Jackson and Bolden now. Anyway that's not a major part of
    the reason for taking Denver, and Denver is a minor play compared to Carolina for me.

  9. #9
    16kredit
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    patriots dont need running game, they have proven that pass happy plays can win too, if you have the right personnel and execution. Oh and if you sleep on bolden, Brady will call an audible and he will rip 30 yards

  10. #10
    chico2663
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    Quote Originally Posted by 16kredit View Post
    patriots dont need running game, they have proven that pass happy plays can win too, if you have the right personnel and execution. Oh and if you sleep on bolden, Brady will call an audible and he will rip 30 yards
    Did you realize that steve jackson took over starting rb

  11. #11
    SEAHAWKHARRY
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    Question is how will carolina defend three top both recievers in Fitzgerald brown and Floyd Norman will stay to one side but to take on all three will be a challenge
    Not saying this won't cash but carolina secondary is suspect

  12. #12
    Snowball
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    Quote Originally Posted by SEAHAWKHARRY View Post
    Question is how will carolina defend three top both recievers in Fitzgerald brown and Floyd Norman will stay to one side but to take on all three will be a challenge
    Not saying this won't cash but carolina secondary is suspect
    yeah, and those stats are borne out in the opposition. Consider the Carolina
    schedule. They played against a large number of pass happy teams. They also
    had issues getting lazy on defense when sitting on big leads. So it's safe to
    say that their defense was a little too comfortable in some of the games, and
    it's also safe to say that they played against more top passing teams than most
    NFL teams this year. They beat them. I mentioned this in the first post. Remember
    the Carolina defense is also strong in the sacks category, best in NFL in interceptions
    and sports the best turnover differential. I'm not saying Arizona won't score, I'm just
    saying Carolina will score more. Carolina has abilities on offense that Arizona isn't ready
    for. They also have pass rush capabilities that will frustrate Palmer, hit him hard and
    often, because he's going to be throwing the ball a lot, as they will likely be in chase mode
    and don't have much of a running game. Panthers know that Arizona long ball is the only
    part of their game that is a threat. If they can pressure Palmer into fast decisions and mistakes
    he won't have the time to connect with downfield receivers often enough to win.
    If I had to guess on a score I think Carolina can win by 10-17.

  13. #13
    Ra77er
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    The one concerning thing for me is Jared Allen. He is a high energy vet that provides leadership to that Carolina front. I don't feel it is a drastic loss and regardless the way Carolina is playing is hard to quantify when talking about producing turnovers.

    What I do not doubt is that they have a goal and that is to win a superbowl. They get to play every week basically as an underdog because like many during the regular season and like last week against the Seahawks, no one believes in them. I'm sure Ron is playing that angle as he should. Vegas has been hanging them as a favorite for a reason yet no one wants to believe it and I attribute that to a few years of watching Cams growing pains along with the incredible turnover ratio as you mentioned SB.

    I hope people can recognize that Luke is literally the best LB in the NFL, he is an anomaly. Crossing routes, flats, even down the field the guy is unstoppable. He makes the secondary, he stuffs the run, he's smart, he has an unbelievable motor. I have more faith backing that kid than any other player on the team to be honest.Also that is no disrespect to Thomas Davis.

    Now even having said all that I have put myself in a quandry with a futures bet so I have to wait until game 1 is complete until I make a play personally.

  14. #14
    Snowball
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ra77er View Post
    The one concerning thing for me is Jared Allen.
    Whether Allen plays or not is not a dropoff.
    http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/s...81141569145808
    http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/p...Jared&ln=Allen
    http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/p...n=Kony&ln=Ealy

  15. #15
    Ra77er
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    Good links snowy I was speaking more on JA intangibles, experience leadership etc.

    Ed Dickson, Tolbert, Crotchery, Allen all guys I consider under the radar game changers. I'll always buy the superstar jersey but I know its the unsung heros that win these games.

  16. #16
    ZINISTER
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    When a team is 15-1 and always leading games, their pass numbers are usually inflated. The comeback by the Seahawks last week should raise reason for concern. Everybody is all up on Cam's nutz! He is the best duel threat in the league. He has NOT proven to be a CLUTCH BIG game QB yet. If he doesn't win this game he is just another damn good QB in the league. Tough game to call. Carson can screw up BIG TIME!! Can't say I have much faith in the Cards coaching staff after passing on third down last week and leaving Rogers 2 full minutes. Total choke move! Take Pats on the ROUT!!!

  17. #17
    navyblue81
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    Great write-up. You put me over the top with Carolina as I was already leaning then. But not touching Denver. Can't go against Brady. I have a gut feeling the Pats win that one but not playing it

  18. #18
    Snowball
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    Quote Originally Posted by navyblue81 View Post
    Great write-up. You put me over the top with Carolina as I was already leaning then. But not touching Denver. Can't go against Brady. I have a gut feeling the Pats win that one but not playing it
    Let's hope for the best. I haven't taken Denver separately, only connected with Carolina.
    The Carolina side alone is far more important.

  19. #19
    a4u2fear
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    The same GB team that Sea barely squeaked by last year too

  20. #20
    Snowball
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    The day is finally here.
    I'm adding a separate side on Denver ML. (about 1/4 the size of Panthers bet)
    Was waiting on the wind. We saw the problems with wind last week
    in the Denver receiving corps. None today. This increases the likelihood
    of an effective passing game; I also expect Anderson-Hillman to
    keep the Pats busy.
    The clincher is the Denver pass rush against the weak
    Patriot offensive line. Brady isn't going to have much time in the pocket.
    Points Awarded:

    Ra77er gave Snowball 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  21. #21
    Snowball
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    Carolina -3 yooge, Denver ML, Carolina -3/Denver ML parlay

    SCHWAZEEEEP
    ?!

  22. #22
    SAX27
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    Snow....NICE

  23. #23
    jjgold
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  24. #24
    GunShard
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    Nice bet.

  25. #25
    Aye J Mac
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    What u leaning for Super Bowl?

  26. #26
    Snowball
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aye J Mac View Post
    What u leaning for Super Bowl?
    The lean I have is so small right now it's not worth mentioning.
    Superbowl is 2 weeks away and might not be a super bet.
    who knows i may just do props.

  27. #27
    trevor123698
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    The lean I have is so small right now it's not worth mentioning.
    Superbowl is 2 weeks away and might not be a super bet.
    who knows i may just do props.
    bet it to hit overtime.

  28. #28
    ACoochy
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    Nice hit snowy...

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