KVB?
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For tonight’s game I have a predicted score of Ottawa winning with 27 or 28 points to Montreal’s 20 points. Most models or forecasts seem split here. Many have Ottawa winning this game, some by more and some by less than my prediction while some less sophisticated models have Montreal outright winning this game. I can see near equal pressure on this game but can see certain early buyers coming in on Montreal maybe looking for Montreal to finally beat Ottawa on this third try. The line opened with Ottawa -3 and many houses opened as it was falling towards 2.
The total for this game opened right at my 47-48 point prediction with 47.5 points. Models seeing a closer game look to have fewer points while those predicting Ottawa by 10 or more points probably also predict the Over. The market moved down to 47 where some houses picked it up but made its way to 48.5 almost everywhere.
According to the predictions, this game seems just plain split.
On a broader picture and the subject of another post I believe, according to some metrics, we have hit a bit of a market shakeout. Not just in CFL; it has come in the NFL markets as well. It’s no coincidence that this shakeout has come a week or two before sharper bettors enter the NFL marketplace. I have been mentioning a funky market for a couple of weeks now.
Specifically for the CFL, I have mentioned the line dropping to towards Montreal but the total rising. This contradicts the model behavior described above whereby those looking a closer game also seek the Under.
Notice also that the Total dropped to 47 early but took pressure all the way to 48.5. I believe there is manipulation in this game that will start the flow of money for the rest of the week.
While we can line up reasons to take almost any bet in this game, under market analysis we can certainly gain more information by passing. I will continue to analyze the markets and try to determine the intended flow for the books and we may see a bet for halftime.
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I have a foolish idea that I'm gonna try out... Play all of the plays spit out by my numbers. If at any point I'm in the black for the week, stop. So today I've got:
OTT -2.5
o48.5
GL with whatever you choose!Comment -
After reviewing some market metrics as well as the give and take between multiple betting groups and the books I have gone ahead and picked up Ottawa Redblacks -130 over Montreal Alouettes.
Good Luck.
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Good Luck Guy, let's get this Ottawa. I think, given the potential for a pass here, that it's worth it to go for the win or cover. A loss here can likely be picked up down the road.
I went ahead with the winner instead of the spread as it is still Thursday night and something just stinks a bit in these markets.Comment -
i took the over, but should have faded my own play... after that 1st possession,Comment -
I was watching, a Montreal player just got knocked the fuggout. He just fell to the ground. I hope it looked worse than it is.
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over is killed, taking 5 minute drives , cant pass, throwing up hail marys, hoping for a catch, is not gonna cut it. redblacks was the correct pick..Comment -
finally some TDs, will be get 2 more scores a TD and a FGComment -
If we lost the over on that stupid 2pt play...Comment -
Bwwwwahahahahahaha!!!! No words for that one boysComment -
Under in play tonight in Hamilton. Huge wind gusts, backup QB, etc.Comment -
Also took Calgary/Hamlton under 24.5 1H -106 @Pinnacle.Comment -
On itComment -
For tonight’s game I have a predicted score of Hamilton’s 24 or 25 points to Calgary’s 20 points. Virtually all models, static and current, have Hamilton winning this game, some by more than 10 points, and most seem to favor the Over with Totals from well beyond 50 points.
This line opened early at Calgary -3 and has been picked around the world there or as it fell to -2.5. We are now seeing -1.5 around the world. This line drop is no surprise. Not only do numbers point to Hamilton, but the public in general seeks a Hamilton rebound from the home loss to Edmonton as well as that all too familiar home victory that Hamilton backers are used to seeing.
It seems like everyone wants Hamilton and the markets have moved accordingly.
The Total opened at 49.5 and ticked upward to 50 in most places. It has since settled back to 49.5. It seems many of those Hamilton backers did like the Over here but, as pointed in this thread, with weather and a QB situation, there is reason to question and it seems the public has countered as they seem to be on the Under when it hits 50.
I have one of the fewer predictions that see this as a lower scoring game and believe that the books may be trying to limit some of that Under buying. Yesterday some bettors were taken out of the Total play because the line was so close and they saw a very late Over that can scare some of the less hardened viewers out of Under plays.
The market has seen 7 Unders in a row and last night’s heartbreaker for the Under backers leads me to believe I’ve seen enough in this market. I have gone with my predicted score and picked up UNDER 49.5 (-107) for Calgary Stampeders versus Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
Good Luck.
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Wow, line crashing as I was writing the above post. It's even off the board briefly in some places.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see 48.5 or even 48.Comment -
True to my word, I'm passing for the rest of the week. I'll track the outcome of my remaining numbers, but after last night's thievery I want no part of today. Here's hoping for a 1-0 game tonight for the rest of you!Comment -
I bought half a point (10 cents) on the total to get 49.5 at Bookmaker. The side I feel like Calgary ML is the right play here but I am going to pass on that. Good luck and thanks for the posting Kilo
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Good to see you Ra77er. I hope we win this one, even though my bookie hates to pay when I go for the money...
To win, we must bet with precision and skill...
Good Luck.
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KVB why do you prefer median over mean? Mean is much more accurate right? I know this is random question in this specific thread but you spoke about this before with regards to modeling in the HTT.
More specifically mean would seem to account for anomaly type situation better than a median approach or no?Comment -
Big breeze may help your under.Comment -
We have 27 points and the opening halftime line was 23.5. Remember, this Total traded at 50 for a bit before falling. I would expect that line to have downward pressure. I'm going to pass but look for the 2nd half total to drop possibly to 22.5.
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Halftime score? It stopped updating for me. ThxComment -
13-10 Cats I believe
14-13 StampsComment -
KVB 
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It's early so far, but Edmonton -6.0 over Winnipeg looks like a real good bet.
Going to have to check the weather near game time to see if that factors into it.Comment -
For the first game tomorrow I have a predicted score of Edmonton’s 30 points beating Winnipeg’s 17 points. This puts me between many popular approaches the predict Edmonton to win by anywhere from 10 to 17 or even 18 points. This market has been in a type of (depending on the bettor’s behavior) shakeout and appears to be evening out. I can see potential pressure on Winnipeg that the oddsmakers simply must account for and it shows as this side opened with Edmonton favored by only 5.5. The low line was likely to draw some favorite action and indeed the line moved to 6 points.
These guys are sharp though, and they know there will be action on Winnipeg. I wouldn’t be surprised if this line fell back to 5.5, though it may not. Along with metrics indicating the market is pulling out of its “shakeout,” I can also see indications from the first half of the season pointing this game towards Winnipeg.
This is the first game on Saturday, which makes it inherently riskier but can tell us a lot about how the money is flowing for the next game. I believe a loss here will give me a great deal more information about these markets, leading to many answers in the coming weeks. Since it is never easy to get “many” answers, I believe I am safe in picking up Winnipeg Blue Bombers +6 (-102) over Edmonton Eskimos.
While I do have indications pointing to an upset, I think patience should be exercised. If indeed Winnipeg covers the 6 points, getting the upset would reward greed. It is my belief these markets are going to play a little tighter than that.
Good Luck.
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