CFL

[Ra77er]

Mentally hard not to blindly tail GK's avatar I will say that.

Regarding the game, it does look like a close one. Montreal steak seasoning on the 3 /1h 1.5. Probably lose second half miserably.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Mentally hard not to blindly tail GK's avatar I will say that.

Regarding the game, it does look like a close one. Montreal steak seasoning on the 3 /1h 1.5. Probably lose second half miserably.

Your avatar's alright too my friend (but not in a gay sort of way). GL!

[Ra77er]

Heeluva

[KVB]

Line came out with BC-3 for second half, setting them up for the 1 point win. Montreal was hit pretty hard sending the line to -2 and even -1 at 5 Dimes. Yet some houses kept the -3 and are charging a price for the underdog.

Pinny is showing +3 (-131) and -3 (+116). Has Pinny put the writing on the wall? If not, and Montreal gets this, I would expect to see this divergence again. If so, and BC wins the game, we should still expect to see this divergence again.

I say it’s if so and have picked up British Colombia Lions 2^nd half -3 (+116) over Montreal Alouettes.

Let’s see if the book played to my greed; BC just punted on their first possession.

[Ra77er]

I like it KVB good luck man

[KVB]

Constant review, including different types, can lead to insight into your betting. I’ve said before, your win loss record should be tracked. Those bets, why you made them and the results are a piece of information that not even the sharpest syndicate or best run book has access too. They may profile and guess why, and we can prey on that, but the information is truly unique to you.

Following my bold plays will not, in the end, do you wrong. I think you will also do just fine if you follow the predictions I give about the games. For this thread, I may dance around the bet for some games, but if you follow my line so far, even with any size discrepancies, for all the games, you have done very well this year.

Like I tried to explain above, the line making process is very dynamic and I will stay pretty sharp because I understand why it is dynamic.

The game scores predicted should continue to do well, especially very well against money lines, but price does matter long term there. Many times we get charged too much vig and you have to know when to enter…

I addressed the state of the models against totals above now let’s update them all.

...For the 12 games, the early season models being used were 10-2 ATS and 5-7 against the moneylines (which means little without the prices). The models were 5-5 against the Totals, with 2 games right on the spread.

Since that 1^st quarter, against the spread, my predicted scores were 9-3 (one spread was right on) for a current 19-5 record. The money lines have caught up and are now 14-11. Again prices matter, but know that many of those, obviously, were upsets. After this last game the models were 12-11 against the Totals.

I have posted 31 of those plays with a 19-11-1 record. The totals were 7-4 leaving a 12-7-1 record of bold plays against sides and totals. For recent performance note that 3 of those 7 losses came tonight, and also note that 5 of those 11 losses came from BC alone.

While tonight’s bold plays lost, if you followed my predicted score listed, with any discrepancy against the point spread, you would be hitting at a whopping 79%.

Notice we have varied from 55%-62% by quite a bit. Contrast that to the performance against the total markets mentioned in a post above, with little to no variance at all, including recent performance.

This divergence is not uncommon among the markets and it will be interesting to see if the behavior shifts and we see more variance in totals and less in the sides.

As for these results, including the BC debacles, remember I said we would break this down one quarter of a season at time. We are approaching the midway point, after which it is common to see markets shift around.

Like every game, there are two halves to every season.

[KVB]

I like it KVB good luck man

Man Ra77er, if only I’d listened to myself…

My own words, in order of posting…

...Shit's going to get tough. I suppose it will be harder and harder to get a bet in for each game.

The ability to pass has always been our biggest edge as bettors and it will have to be used wisely going forward. There is little room for greedy play going forward...

...it is my opinion that this line is sufficiently sharp, in this context, and I think it’s a pass. After all, I already won this bet last week...

Yet I didn’t listen?

Maybe a close game tonight, a BC win and Montreal cover makes us both right, save my greedy little +108 on the -3...

...Let’s see if the book played to my greed...

The point is that staying patient and being disciplined is a constant duty. Remember, our competition holds no quarter.

[KVB]

My CFL picks posted in this thread;

(11-3)

Montreal +3

Edmonton +3

Calgary -6.5

Toronto -8.5

[KVB]

For Friday’s game between Hamilton and Edmonton I have a similar line to the first game this week, another incentive to pass on the first game. I have Edmonton with 20 points to Hamilton’s 17 or 19. This line basically opened at -2.5 around the world and has also traded a half down to 2 points. This seems pretty consistent with the model.

While it makes sense that there would be pressure on Edmonton at home I have taken an early position in Hamilton Tiger Cats -2 (-110) over Edmonton Eskimos. I’m not going to address my assessment of the line movement yet because I think the market is awaiting not only higher limits, but more information regarding the flow of money.

I will say this…I may not be getting the best possible line for this game. I can see quite a bit of pressure on Edmonton that should but may not materialize into a line movement. Certain, unnamed metrics and a bit of experience tells me the books may need to hold this line where it is and that they may take a position…

This line has moved to -2.5 around the world. Conveniently, it moved at the same time that Thursday’s game was pressing a 2.5 around the world. This shift feels like a bit of manipulation.

Splitting the money with a 2.5 point spread with these first two games is one angle the books may have going here. In the last two weeks we have seen the spread used to split money each week: the first two games in week 7 (used pick ‘em lines that each shifted to -2.5) and the last two games in week 8 (each with a -7.5 opening line). In both instances the same side covered. They were both underdogs in week 7 and both favorites in week 8.

This week they have used the -2.5 line for the first two games and note that the last two games this week had early openers at -7.5. See what the markets did there?

This is a game by game decision but it is my opinion that we may be looking at Hamilton winning and Saskatchewan performing very well at home.

In regards to the models, the first two games have very similar predictions and the same can be said for the last two games. The models may be sharp, as they are emulating the markets very well.

I’d like to automatically take the Over in game two this week as the Under came in game one, the model prediction is the same, and we know how that tends to balance itself. In fact, one very solid play in week 7 came from this type of balancing.

However, I expect residual traps from that Over 46.5 solid play in week 7 and also look for the favorite to come, completing the split for the first two games. If that comes, then I see the split in the total bet failing. For these reasons, I am passing on the Total bet for Friday’s game.

Even though the line has so far predictably moved towards my model’s score, I am passing even on the Under bet. A little patience, and some results, will give us an idea on where the Total money is flowing and we can strike accordingly.

It will be interesting to see if there is a line shift on the side for Friday’s game. Again I may not be getting the best line as I expect some pressure on the underdog, but I am picking Hamilton Tiger Cats -130 over Edmonton Eskimos.

Good Luck.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Tonight I have:

HAM tt u25.5

GL!

[Jayvegas420]

Without having looked at anything yet, I am leaning the over in Edmonton.

[icecapper]

Ticats moneyline.

[PorkChop]

Hamilton -2 looking like play tonight; league's best offence

[KVB]

Without having looked at anything yet, I am leaning the over in Edmonton.

Hamilton -2 looking like play tonight; league's best offence

Agreed, I have a Hamilton offensive rating that is far from the league and far from Edmonton.

But, I have an Edmonton defensive rating that is even further from the league and further from Hamilton.

Hence the slight edge to Edmonton in the 20 to 17 or 19 prediction.

While the wheels may have come off in some high scoring affairs for Hamilton, Edmonton has held steady with one Heeluva defense this year.

Pinny is now offering Over 49 (+105) and has had a reduced price or odds on the Over nearly the whole time it’s been posted. They have resisted pulling off the number each time it’s traded down.

The over is looking tempting at these numbers and given yesterday’s triggered trades, I may have to play ball with them.

Here we go again.

[KVB]

Tonight I have:

HAM tt u25.5

GL!

Good Luck Guy, I like the play.

[noddse]

as good as both defenses are i doubt that one team will score anywhere near the 30s. edmonton always plays different at home than on the road, and hamilton hits the road after three straight home games, could be a letdown for them. lean under 49 and esks at + money.

[icecapper]

as good as both defenses are i doubt that one team will score anywhere near the 30s. edmonton always plays different at home than on the road, and hamilton hits the road after three straight home games, could be a letdown for them. lean under 49 and esks at + money.

I like the under as well. Hamilton has been lighting it up artificially with punt return and defensive touchdowns.

[Jayvegas420]

Looks like I'm facing another NO PLAY tonight.
The information in this thread is usually accurate & I'm now convinced that this could stay well under the opener.
Focus on game 3 I guess.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Looks like I'm facing another NO PLAY tonight.
The information in this thread is usually accurate & I'm now convinced that this could stay well under the opener.
Focus on game 3 I guess.

Never underestimate the power of an overtime to wreck an otherwise solid under play. I had a CBB game stay under through one OT this season only to lose it in 2OT.

ETA: you want an over that's bound to hit tonight try Minn/SA in WNBA. I have two positions on the under in that one so I'm sure I'm doomed. I hate unders...

[KVB]

Since first getting Hamilton I have suspected there would be pressure on the underdog tonight and while I was initially ahead of the market, I posted twice that I expected a line change.

That line starting to change today in the anticipated direction and it may go further. I will go ahead and move on the drop and pick up Hamilton Tiger-Cats -125 over Edmonton Eskimos.

I believe the book is attracting underdog money here and has been taking a position this whole time.

The signs are not as evident in the prices themselves, but I believe trends and betting behavior are being exploited by the book.

As far as the total, the price has moved into a range that, for this thread, triggers a buy. I have picked up the OVER 49 (+109) for Hamilton Tiger Cats versus Edmonton Eskimos.

Like I said, here we go again.

[Ra77er]

Hamilton -2 (-102) would this be playable for you KVB?

[KVB]

Hamilton -2 (-102) would this be playable for you KVB?

Sure, I took Hamilton -2 (-110) the other day. You have a better price. Take it.

Let's get a win this Friday night.

[Ra77er]

Disregard I think it's good play.

[noddse]

I like the under as well. Hamilton has been lighting it up artificially with punt return and defensive touchdowns.

i read a lot on thespec that covers the ticats. hamilton had to start the season on the road for like about a month or so.

as they finally got home the players were so glad and thankful to finally not have to travel, not have to stay at hotels, not have to see their teammates 24/7, that this game is a bit of a letdown for them in my eyes. they played lights out on all three phases, but they weren't as good offensively as the results suggest. as you said, they had a lot of points scored thanks to special teams and defensive returns and scores. now they travel after 3 straight dominant home dates to alberta playing an edmonton team that is as good as them defensively, and that plays far better at commonwealth stadium than on the road.

edmonton has two more days rest and preparation time, ticats hitting road after dominant home stretch on a short week. thats recipe for a disaster, and edmonton neither should be a home dog nor should be the total in the high 40s in this one.

[KVB]

...edmonton neither should be a home dog nor should be the total in the high 40s in this one.

Ahh, but they are and it is. The books may be taking positions here.

Good info noddse, I was wondering last night if we were going to get some on the ground reports from you, and you showed up today.

[KVB]

The line moved again and now I have picked up OVER 48.5 (+103) for Hamilton Tiger Cats versus Edmonton Eskimos.

I presume we’ll close at 48 and we haven’t seen a Total line push the open or close of the spread all season long…he said ominously.

[Ra77er]

Well I don't like the total KVB, conflicting opinions in the thread. I am on Ham but I got 103.



PS the mini whipping guy is unnecessary

[KVB]

Maybe the pink pom pom cheerleader will better suit you Ra77er.

Yeah, that Total is shaping up to be a bit of a contrarian play for sure. But I like the prices for this spot though, and you know what that got me last night.

[Ra77er]

I know KVB, the contrarian approach and seeing the dog is hard to pass up. This one does look to me like books want Eskimo pie money and they have taken a position clearly to me. Market picking up Tigre Cats yet they are holding tight basically, feels like they probably are doing what you have already posted, more on the psychology side here. Anyway I'll root for 51 for Ham and Eskimos frozen.

[Jayvegas420]

Big start for Ti-Cats.

[drfunkmaster]

over was the correct pick. unreal. edmonton has no defence!!. ti-cats exposed those frauds. my under is dead

[Ra77er]

Lets go Cats

[HeeluvaGuy]

Haha. Team total dead. GL to the rest

[Can U Tank It]

interesting thread. any idea what KVB's record for the year in CFL is?

[Ra77er]

KVB is undefeated would be my guess, maybe it's a blood bath but I enjoy reading his thoughts personally.