CFL

[drfunkmaster]

argos are garbage

[HeeluvaGuy]

Let's say you're on the o53.5 ... Middle at u27 2h?

[KVB]

Let's say you're on the o53.5 ... Middle at u27 2h?

I suppose, but I'm still liking the OVER. Also, I've seen a live line of 58.5, could be a 58 point game. I'm holding with the Over bet.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I went the other way. Don't like the weather. GL

[KVB]

I went the other way. Don't like the weather. GL

Not a bad call at all, a 54 to 56 point game is certainly in the cards tonight. Let's see how close the original spread gets.

For me, including the weather, it just seems too easy.

[teaserpleaser]

argos cant even get a garbage TD cant believe this is going to go under wtf my luck just ran out both my night bets went to shit quickly yet still alive slightly.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Anyway, here's what I came up with. Some weird #s in a couple of games. Gonna have to dig deeper. (Keep in mind, this is all from backward looking data. It doesn't account for injuries, etc. This is just a starting point I use for trying to identify plays.)

BC/Winnipeg -- WIN -20 Total: 56 (Model isn't impressed with BC's two wins over SSK. This looks unreliable.)

SSK/EDM -- EDM -15.2 Total: 48.8

MTL/CGY -- CGY +3.2 Total: 42.3

TOR/HAM -- HAM -4.9 Total: 64.6 (I would consider this unreliable b/c this is HAM's first home game. Doesn't mean I won't play something, just don't think the model is telling us much here.)

These were 5-3 with all sides winning. I'll post the next games as soon as I can. May not be until Wednesday.

[drfunkmaster]

argos cant even get a garbage TD cant believe this is going to go under wtf my luck just ran out both my night bets went to shit quickly yet still alive slightly.

thats cuz its a toronto team. All toronto teams are chock jobs. raptors, leafs argos and watch the jays chock...seen it every year.

[KVB]

Good work Guy. Just a conversion away from the middle.

[KVB]

Hamilton did their job tonight, but the Under was the answer.

But as for Toronto, and their fans, even though they couldn't convert on 3rd downs, but being a conversion away from bringing that total to 54, all I can think of is this...

[Jayvegas420]

Owens always shows up, the rest if the team is crap

[KVB]

So, last night a successful 2 point attempt pulled the score right off the line of -5…a 5 point game to a 3 point game.

Tonight, a failed 2 point attempt kept the score from the Total of 53.5…a 52 point game instead of a 54 point game.

Funny how a marketplace with so much emphasis on splitting money, dividing bettors, and loaded with situational give and takes, mostly to take the vig off of the top tends to play itself out on the field. It’s not the first time I’ve alluded to this tendency, and it probably won’t be the last.

Speaking of give and take, remember the second bet of the middle?

...This may get a response, but it’s the second play that makes the middle successful...

Well, Edmonton -9.5 and Montreal +5.5 were successful plays.

...and that spread sitting one full point above 54 all weekend long is ominous...

It didn’t work out so well for the Over 53.5 bettors; perhaps another cat out of the bag?

[true degenerate]

I'm off too a decent start.

CFL posts (5-1)

Thursday: B.C-3 (LOSS)

Friday: Edmonton -10 (win)

Saturday: Montreal+5 (win)

Monday: Hamilton-3.5 (win)

[Viravolta]

Week overview... let's hope the next will be the same, with this rating system I ma trying. Thank you all for the discussion and especially to KVB and HeeluvaGuy, shedding light on the money flow idea and for the tips. I wanted to test this rateform system, which several years ago I tried on NFL... not very successfully I can say. Will include the stats today for the next week, and see what the model says about the upcoming games. Here are my results. I like some times, when I feel confident to take multiple positions on a market. Maybe it doesn't make sense, but it resembles buying shares on multiple stages, depending on the data change.

7/29/2015 Montreal Alouettes vs. Calgary Stampeders under 47,5
7/29/2015 B.C. Lions vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers over 49,5
7/29/2015 Montreal Alouettes vs. Calgary Stampeders Spread/ MON +4,5
7/29/2015 B.C. Lions vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Spread/ WIN +4,5
7/29/2015 Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Edmonton Eskimos/ SAS +10,0
7/31/2015 Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Edmonton Eskimos under 48
7/31/2015 Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Edmonton Eskimos under 48
8/1/2015 Montreal Alouettes vs. Calgary Stampeder Spread/ MON +5
8/1/2015 Toronto Argonauts vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats under 55
8/1/2015 Toronto Argonauts vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats Spread/ HAM -3,5
8/1/2015 Montreal Alouettes vs. Calgary Stampeders Spread/ MON +5
8/3/2015 Toronto Argonauts vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats Spread/ HAM -3,5

GL for the next week! Will try to give some ideas asap.

[Jayvegas420]

Great recap viral.
Very helpful.

[Viravolta]

EDM @ BC

Offence/Defence: according to the model, the recent Offence and Defence ratings of BC are slightly better (in reference points) compared to the EDM's offence. However, match rateform model says that in the last few matches EDM are with a way way better offence then BC. Taking into account also the ~36% long range away victory rating of EDM compared to the ~64% long range home victory rating of BC, the game may be close. Nevertheless, the MOST recent rateform stats show a victory for EDM. For o/u average I get 49.3-49.9.

I will wait a bit more for the odds to move around a bit before taking position here.

[KVB]

For the Edmonton vs British Colombia game I want to come out quick. One of the more sophisticated predictions I have arrives at a score of Edmonton 31 to BC’s 16 to 17 points.

That’s a total of 47 or 48 points. The line opened at 47.5. I have reason to believe this line will drop slightly but eventually go up. If I see a half point drop, I will enter the market.

Many will think this line opened off with a pick em spread. We should expect to see Edmonton money come into the market but also expect to see support for BC.

Notice that Thursday and Friday’s games both opened as a pick em. See if you can identify what money is being split, or at least appears to be being split.

For now, I will buy BC if they become an underdog and will buy over 47 should we see it.

[KVB]

So those lines moved alright. I think there will be more Edmonton money coming in, maybe not enough to come off of one, so I am holding on BC +1 but picking up Over 47 (-106) for Edmonton Eskimos vs. British Colombia Lions.

Pinny is definitely trying to confuse market readers. While moving both lines in this game, dropping that total a half point, they also dropped the total on Saskatchewan vs. Toronto to 48. In my opinion, this is possible manipulation, just like the first game. While there is a QB situation, possibly declining, in Saskatchewan, there is a reason that line opened at 48.5.

Perhaps the market hasn’t factored in the situation in Saskatchewan.

If you believe that, I have an island for sale, you can buy the bridge to it also.

I see upward pressure Saskatchewan vs. Toronto despite the facts that these teams are different than when they met in Week 2 and defenses have had time to adjust.

Expect these totals to once again do something interesting this week, a la last week’s puzzle.

[KVB]

EDM @ BC

Offence/Defence: according to the model, the recent Offence and Defence ratings of BC are slightly better (in reference points) compared to the EDM's offence. However, match rateform model says that in the last few matches EDM are with a way way better offence then BC. Taking into account also the ~36% long range away victory rating of EDM compared to the ~64% long range home victory rating of BC, the game may be close. Nevertheless, the MOST recent rateform stats show a victory for EDM. For o/u average I get 49.3-49.9.

I will wait a bit more for the odds to move around a bit before taking position here.

For the Edmonton vs British Colombia game I want to come out quick. One of the more sophisticated predictions I have arrives at a score of Edmonton 31 to BC’s 16 to 17 points.

I’d like to note that it wouldn’t take much of an adjustment to get a 33 point game from Edmonton in my raw score above. That would make a 49 to 50 point Total.

I think you are working with a pretty good Total line in this game Viravolta.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here's what my model has for Week 7:

BC +13.2 39.8
OTT -2.9 43.5
TOR -10.4 57.0
HAM -9.9 46.1

Keep in mind, this is not all I use in coming up with plays. My model is only one factor I look at in identifying plays, and I'll post actual plays closer to game time. For example, I see some inconsistencies in my model on the EDM/BC game (among a few other things I need to look into further).

Now I'll go back and read what others have said...

[HeeluvaGuy]

One of the things I like to do is a quick sanity check with other predictors. I'm fond of Massey just because his are pretty real time and he has all of the leagues. Take a look here:

http://www.masseyratings.com/pred.php?s=cfl

Pretty strong correlations on Edmonton and my total for that one. My #s on the Toronto game match his almost exactly.

[Viravolta]

Thanks for the detailed info HeeluvaGuy!

Here is my observation regarding the SAS @ TOR game:

Rateform for the last few matches of the teams: TOR have 4.95 times better receiving capability; TOR has 1.03 times better offence rating; both teams are with negative defence ratings, due to poor performance, however, still TOR has 0.12 times better defence rating. Adding into account the QB situation at SSK and the home advantage of TOR, TOR is the obvious favourite.

o/u probability 46.3 - 47

win percentage all time - home win TOR ~ 43% - away win SAS ~ 47.2% (not considering the QB injury at the moment; this value is significantly lower for the current match in this situation)

[KVB]

For the Edmonton vs British Colombia game I want to come out quick. One of the more sophisticated predictions I have arrives at a score of Edmonton 31 to BC’s 16 to 17 points.

That’s a total of 47 or 48 points. The line opened at 47.5. I have reason to believe this line will drop slightly but eventually go up. If I see a half point drop, I will enter the market….

I’d like to note that it wouldn’t take much of an adjustment to get a 33 point game from Edmonton in my raw score above. That would make a 49 to 50 point Total.

I think you are working with a pretty good Total line in this game Viravolta.

The line I was referring to above was actually an oddsmaker’s line, one that I believed would be set initially. Clearly, I was right as that is where it opened.

The sharper line, reflecting more of my opinion of reality, has BC scoring less. I have the same 31-33 for Edmonton, but only 10 points for British Colombia, for a total of 41 to 43 points.

I printed the wrong line above but my reasoning doesn’t change. The line moved as predicted, I bought at 47, and it is now back to 47.5.

The play is still valid as I had calculated the lines beforehand and just posted the wrong one, writing about the other one. Quite frankly, I didn’t mean to give out so much information. I didn’t mean for you to know that I could be so accurate with the openers…at least not yet. There was a lesson in line construction for that.

Anyway, HeeluvaGuy, your total on the first game is not so far off, and Massey isn’t either. Actually, I have several lines very close to Massey and many of his scores are very realistic. These lines will get sharper and the markets will change, but he looks pretty good this week…I have a couple of disagreements but even then can see where he is coming from.

And Viravolta, I have lines that get the higher total you did, including my special opener, but they do tend toward the average. That said, even more advanced lines using metrics related to the market analysis can indicate the high line.

So, Volta, I’m not sure where you’re coming from there. One thing is for sure, if that line in Edmonton vs. BC stays where it is or goes up, you’re probably locked out of the bet. It’s something to note when tracking…you may get one back in the same week.

[Viravolta]

Hey KVB, I am just giving some ideas based on the model I use... I may very well be quite off the real numbers. Thanks for the advise above!

Maybe I will stay away from the first two games this week. Or at least until some significant changes in the line.

[CanuckG]

Love BC +1 and Montreal PK. Riders +9.5 to keep it close.

[KVB]

For the Montreal vs. Ottawa game on Friday, I can make a line that is identical to Montreal’s game last week. It’s a line that has done very well all year but should start to falter. I see Heeluva guy has Ottawa favored but most lines I create give Montreal the nod.

With the same line as last week, with the total ending as it did last week, and a review of other market metrics I can see the Total on that line failing this week and picked up OVER 46.5 (-106) for Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks. Bettors who failed, like I did, last week on this Over, those bettors who were stung, may get it back this week, and this could be the game. Those that hit the Under bet may go to the well again, only to give back.

There will be more information after the first game but I am content to let this line fall and buy more as the price sweetens. As it stands, it is the lowest line this week and does have some Over support, so it may not drop any further.

I have so far chosen two Over bets this week based on various metrics. We may be seeing a season shift in the Totals market over the next two weeks.

I looked for a line move by the book, they gave it, and I jumped in with the Over in the first game. The first game can be a bit risky for these very reasons, just see last week’s first game. There was a take, before the give the next day.

Watch the lines closely. If my first total bet loses watch those lines for game 2. There is a very good chance the second bet will hit…making it an undisciplined pound play!

These are just some of the many reasons professional gamblers define patience and discipline as key factors in their success.

[KVB]

Love BC +1 and Montreal PK. Riders +9.5 to keep it close.

...For now, I will buy BC if they become an underdog and will buy over 47 should we see it.

I haven't picked up BC +1 yet, may pass on the Montreal vs. Ottawa winner as I am looking heavy into the Total in that game, and I agree, I have Saskatchewan a bit closer in that game than most models may show.

Good Luck

[KVB]

Here's what my model has for Week 7:

BC +13.2 39.8
OTT -2.9 43.5
TOR -10.4 57.0
HAM -9.9 46.1
...

For the Winnipeg vs. Hamilton game I am a little closer to Massey’s line than you are. I have Hamilton by about 14 points with a total of 48-49 points. I’m not entering this game, yet.

I have the same total as you, 57 in the Saskatchewan vs. Toronto game but I have the score a little closer. I have basically one less score for Toronto and one more score for Saskatchewan than Massey. If they can't get the QB to flow in Saskatchewan, there could be real trouble there.

Given the defensive situations with these teams we could be looking at another Over play, but the story in Saskatchewan could be bleak, not just increasing that Toronto favorite, but really affecting the total score. I mentioned a bit about this game above and that it opened so low for a reason.

...I see upward pressure Saskatchewan vs. Toronto despite the facts that these teams are different than when they met in Week 2 and defenses have had time to adjust.

Expect these totals to once again do something interesting this week, a la last week’s puzzle...

The last time these two teams played they scored a combined 82 points, the highest scoring game so far this year.

Now, since they’ve played once, defenses can usually make some adjustments. Also, Saskatchewan isn’t playing with the same QB…obvious signs pointing to fewer points.

But the total is only 48 points. If Toronto is able to gain one more score because of a lack of offensive conversions by Saskatchewan and get to a 34 or 36 point game, then Saskatchewan only needs two to three scores to bring it over 48.

Sounds reasonable, right? Toronto failed us last week, a real let down, this week they could bounce back at home, right?

As usual, I think we should follow the money. But what does that mean? Well, here’s one way…

Read the case for the Over again and the different suggestions offered. Try to think of other suggestions. Think square, think sharp, whatever, just make a case.

Now take those reasons and suggestions and role play. Put yourself in the shoes of that bettor. What is the bettor thinking for the first two games this week? Where is that money going? How about that bettor season to date, or last week? Are we dealing with streak riders and breakers?

Once you see the experience of different bettors and the answers to even more questions than what is above you can fold the individual issue, or game, into the broader context and likely use the bookie to help direct your play.

Make no mistake, it takes tremendous experience, creativity, attention to detail, ingenuity and time, but this can help put you on to some winners as well as take you off of some losers.

Think about it.

[noddse]

Guys notice that Under at Tim Hortons Field is 7-0 in regular season games with a maximum of 5 offensive tds scored in those. Hamilton also just placed starting RB CJ Gable and leading receiver Andy Fantuz on the 6-Game Injury List.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Guys notice that Under at Tim Hortons Field is 7-0 in regular season games with a maximum of 5 offensive tds scored in those. Hamilton also just placed starting RB CJ Gable and leading receiver Andy Fantuz on the 6-Game Injury List.

Shhhh... 😉

Now, can someone tell me what you see in BC (besides the questionable line)? I'm very close to locking in on Edmonton. Thanks.

[Jayvegas420]

Aren't you looking for huge discrepancies between your model & the opener?

[jjgold]

What's the play

[HeeluvaGuy]

Aren't you looking for huge discrepancies between your model & the opener?

If this is to me then the answer is yes. I have EDM heavily favored and the line is only -1. I did some cursory research and don't see any reason (yet) not to play EDM here, but I see a couple of posts talking about playing BC so I'm curious what I may be missing.

[Viravolta]

My model also suggest EDM as a strong favourite... I took a medium position on -1 for EDM. That will be the only play for this game... if I feel more confident tomorrow, will take 1 or 2 more positions, if the line moves.

[noddse]

BC QB Lulay is 16-2 or so at BC Place.