CFL

[Ra77er]

Lot of pressure here KVB but sometimes you have to take a chance and always shoot for the stars. I love Edmonton good luck pal.

[Viravolta]

Thanks for sharing the idea about the money flow! I am not used to look from that perspective in general. I am also taking a position at the under today. I am using an old rateform approach, but with my stats and believes. What I get is that the recent defence performance of SSK is in the negative region, along with the debut of Brett Smith, I expect a low performance. EDM is one of my favourite teams, but opening the week 7 with a game against BC, and with an overall low rating for their receiving, also think that will score low. So, definitely sitting on the under.

[true degenerate]

CFL posts (2-1)

Thursday: B.C-3 (LOSS)

Friday: Edmonton -10

Saturday: Montreal+5

Monday: Hamilton-3.5

[Jayvegas420]

Under is 7-1 in Eskimos last 8 vs. West.
Under is 14-2 in Eskimos last 16 games following a ATS win.
Under is 6-1 in Eskimos last 7 games in July.
Under is 5-1 in Eskimos last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 5-1 in Eskimos last 6 home games.
Under is 8-2 in Eskimos last 10 games overall.
Under is 5-2 in Eskimos last 7 Friday games.

HEAD TO HEAD
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Under is 16-6 in the last 22 meetings in Edmonton.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I know I said I won't have a play today, but I'm going to try to find some time to look further into a possible play on the Edmonton o29. My #s support it, and with SSK starting their 3rd string QB there could be some opportunities for the Eskimos to play on a short field (turnovers, stalled drives, etc.).

[KVB]

This week may already have a mistake. We did not move fast enough on Friday’s Saskatchewan versus Edmonton game. The line opened at Edmonton -11.5. I like the underdog at this level and think Saskatchewan +10.5 is good line. We are currently seeing a 10 point line around the world.

I am now looking at Saskatchewan +10.5 (-120) but will hold off here. The goal is to catch the books with a middle bet. +10.5 and -9.5 are actually not bad shots here.

If I see signs of downward pressure, I may pull the trigger, but the moves may be over now.

I'm going enter the market again with Edmonton -9.5 (-105) over Saskatchewan. I've had reason to believe they are gunning for a 10 or more point game here since the week began.

If I had bought the +11.5, +11, or even +10.5 earlier, I would be making this play today anyway.

This may get a response, but it’s the second play that makes the middle successful. I have metrics that will indicate middles on occasion and given the context they often make sense. Also, given that I missed the first bet, I may benefit as the line moved as predicted.

Sometimes you make a mistake and benefit from it; but most of the time mistakes cost money.

Finally, given the price and point and my reasoning for the -10 (+100) above, this play makes sense for me.

[jjgold]

Under seem like the only plays coming in right now

[KVB]

Yeah, don't remind me. The books seriously steering money in the Total markets this week. I'm prepared to absorb some loss to get to that win.

I get the feeling there will be a few more thorn pricks before I can reach the rose, it's that kind of weekend. Hope it's worth it.

[Viravolta]

Either the SSK Brett Smith is the new sensation coming, and will bring an equal score power, or EDM will play a "walk-in-the-park" game and will not score so much.

Don't know but have a hunch on this... On other hand as I said somewhere above, my analysis gives a negative rating for the SSK defence in the recent performance... which combined with unexperienced QB means as much as a complete destruction.

I relay on the receiving capability of EDM which recently showed degradation...

I already took some good and some bad positions on that match.

Anyway, GL to all! Let's see.

[KVB]

The Toronto versus Hamilton game on Monday seems to have a pretty sharp line. I’ve got what I could consider a pretty realistic line with Hamilton winning 27-24. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Total, now at 55 comes back towards 54.

The side is what I’m after right now. I have identified and will talk later about some pressures that may come about before Monday that could move this line to -4. As such, I am taking an early position in Hamilton Tiger-cats -3.5 (-106) over Toronto Argonauts.

Something is always brewing.

[Viravolta]

The Toronto versus Hamilton game on Monday seems to have a pretty sharp line. I’ve got what I could consider a pretty realistic line with Hamilton winning 27-24. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Total, now at 55 comes back towards 54.

The side is what I’m after right now. I have identified and will talk later about some pressures that may come about before Monday that could move this line to -4. As such, I am taking an early position in Hamilton Tiger-cats -3.5 (-106) over Toronto Argonauts.

Something is always brewing.

Is it possible also for this game that the line on the total moves further down? I get a 53.2 on the totals model. Do you think it will go down?

[KVB]

Is it possible also for this game that the line on the total moves further down? I get a 53.2 on the totals model. Do you think it will go down?

I think you are pretty on point with this 53.2. I can see a small tweak adding a couple of points to my 51 and it does make sense.

I felt it opened a little high at 54.5 with a move up to 55. I figured some protection from over bettors but that wasn't enough. I think it's just pretty sharp at the open with a little early protection since it’s the last game.

It's tough to say which way it will move and especially how much. I think there is downward pressure but I know it could be tough to get on and off of 54...but I may underestimate the volume.

Some might consider a bet if you like 53 as a final, not much overlay, but some. It’s probably too tight for me in the current situation and that spread sitting one full point above 54 all weekend long is ominous.

Despite downward pressure, it could even go up. Clearly we haven't seen enough information yet, but we know there is a developing story in the Totals market and that story itself will move lines. There are some skilled analysts in operation this week and they could be the suckers. They aren’t afraid to come from behind.

Here’s a fact we can expound upon later…Did you know that a professional grinder with good research hitting about 55% of his bets can expect to playing from behind his highest level about 95% of the time. Even when bettors make it to such a level, they fail because hitting a bankroll high only 5% of the time eats at their patience.

Anyway, I think the take, if there is one, is Saturday, making Monday's game a worthless bet for the Total, a sure pass...nothing but scraps once the pile has splashed.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Good work on your total line here.

[KVB]

Here we go again. Books playing split the prices again…




Trading the market can be a wild ride. I’m adding to the positon and picking up Edmonton -10 (+105) over Saskatchewan.

Perhaps Pinny is finding bigger action on this game than the last game, TNF vs Friday night…a consideration.

Be careful tailing with more bets, trying to outwit the books is another dicey proposition and I'm here for not just this battle, but the whole war.

[KVB]

They moved, picking up Edmonton -10 (+107) over Saskatchewan.

Move it again, I dare you.

[HeeluvaGuy]

This always turns out badly when I say I have no play and play something anyway. So here's tonight's fade:

Edmonton tt o28.5

GL everyone!

[KVB]

More movement, just added Edmonton -9 (-108) over Saskatchewan.

Say what again!

[KVB]

Good Luck Guy

Edmonton needs to handle the business tonight or I'm catching more falling knives!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks. I agree on the side, but I'm not afraid to admit that the underdog dominance is keeping me away from the side right now. I don't blindly follow trends (except the Detroit over trend in baseball this season), but I respect them. Admittedly, o28.5 probably doesn't happen unless Edmonton covers, but you never know...

[KVB]

There's a story with the Totals this week. 5 Dimes added tomorrow's game to its reduced markets. Conveniently, everyone's at 47.5.









edit: by the way that -5.5 is a dick move by 5 Dimes. I think they want a position.

[KVB]

Here's an example of a money flow parlay. I used to make these back in the day with different types of flows. When one would go all winners or all losers until the final pick...we knew when to load up.

I've known some real sharp players at parlay construction.

Ahhh, the wild days where we didn't have to be so conservative.

[KVB]

10-0

Anyone surprised here?

[Ra77er]

KVB books would get slayed on a 10 point margin of victory, (I am rooting for you). Only losers would be people that bought the fav at a bad number. Who knows how it shakes out but bol.

[KVB]

Stepping into the halftime bet with Edmonton -3.5 (-106) 2nd half over Saskatchewan.

Bring it on.

[KVB]

This always turns out badly when I say I have no play and play something anyway. So here's tonight's fade:

Edmonton tt o28.5

GL everyone!

[Ra77er]

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'd call that a pretty successful night for the thread. A little closer on the team total than I was hoping for, but I've never complained about winning.

Gonna look closer at tomorrow's game tomorrow. It's been a long week ...

[Jayvegas420]

I don't think Argos show up tomorrow.
Just a hunch but I think we are looking at another blowout.

[KVB]

I don't think Argos show up tomorrow.
Just a hunch but I think we are looking at another blowout.

Toronto Argos on Monday, and I think I agree.

Montreal Alouettes tomorrow, and I want to agree also. Thinking Calgary but there is still more information to digest before a bold play.

Note that parley above...in it is Calgary to win. I think the side could be one to watch, to help for the swing game Monday. But notice I took the Over in the game. I plan on getting more.

[KVB]

The indications seem mixed for this Montreal vs. Calgary game. I think there should be more pressure on the underdog side and it isn’t showing. I think Calgary -4.5 is a good bet but won’t take the -5.5. There is too much to gain from seeing where this side stands and I could easily see a 5 point game here. Signs pointed to the 10 point game and that prediction failed.

I have seen a rather unsophisticated line go 12-2 against the spread this season, hitting the last 9 in a row. This game represents an ideal opportunity for that not to work. It’s so ideal that a 5 point game would be a perfect answer. That model has Montreal winning by 4-6 points.

I am picking up the Calgary Stampeders -200 over the Montreal Alouettes even though this price could get a little better. I can actually see it getting worse as this line could hit -5.5, having nothing to do with reacting to bets.

I am also taking Over 47.5 (-105) in the Montreal vs. Calgary game. I believe the total has been rounded up and will now splash, maybe even OT to bring it Over.

[Jaug]

Another under. What is going on in this league..

[Viravolta]

Nice game! Made me some money! Let's see today... I am rearranging the model for today. Something is pulling me towards Montreal...

[HeeluvaGuy]

I can't get comfortable with the side, so my fade o' the day is:

CGY tt u26.5

GL everyone! I hope to be able catch some of the game, but may not be able to. Enjoy your Saturday!

[KVB]

...I am picking up the Calgary Stampeders -200 over the Montreal Alouettes even though this price could get a little better. I can actually see it getting worse as this line could hit -5.5, having nothing to do with reacting to bets.

I am also taking Over 47.5 (-105) in the Montreal vs. Calgary game. I believe the total has been rounded up and will now splash, maybe even OT to bring it Over.

Ahead of the market on both plays so far today. Because of the tendency split money, you already know line shifts can split. So, being ahead of the market on both reminds me of a wise old coach who once said "it's kind of like having your mother law drive your brand new Cadillac off of a cliff...you get mixed emotions."

I’m thinking the Over is going to find its way this evening and Montreal may play a close one…OT anyone?

I think the Over is out of the bag and the pressure upwards is real. There may have been a few parlays out there, possibly still alive; waiting for tonight’s under to hit.

I think there is more pressure on Montreal than has been indicated early on and the line stayed at 5 until yesterday’s results, which, in my opinion, should have drawn money to Calgary. At this point, why lay -220 when you can just get -5.5; that half of a point isn’t too big of a deal, right?

It’s the +5.5 I see working for the Montreal bettors. Those early bets may push and the late bets may cover yet another spread with an unsophisticated line. The profit is tapering off. But getting sold on Calgary may be too easy.

Even when you can grasp one piece of what’s happening around you, it can still be difficult to come out ahead and make it worth profit.

If I had Calgary -4.5, I think I would also buy Montreal +5.5. Now let’s think about that…The second trade of the middle was the winning bet yesterday, Edmonton -9 or -9.5.

Given what you’ve seen over the last week and a half, do you think the same condition applies? Of course, yesterday there was no middle.

This is why I choose Calgary to win and won’t kick myself if they cover. After all, those buying Calgary to cover today are getting the worst of it, pulling some money away from that bet.

A Montreal upset would be tipping point, in my opinion, of this underdog market and we would see predictable consequences. A Calgary cover tonight could also mean the market has tipped, also offering consequences but not as forward looking or as ahead of the curve (unless you were on the same things I was yesterday, that would be one day ahead).

But a 5 point game keeps the marketplace on their heels.

I feel the CFL is getting tighter and you may see tonight just how so.

[KVB]

...If I had Calgary -4.5, I think I would also buy Montreal +5.5. Now let’s think about that…The second trade of the middle was the winning bet yesterday, Edmonton -9 or -9.5.

Given what you’ve seen over the last week and a half, do you think the same condition applies? Of course, yesterday there was no middle...

Be careful here...

This is why some bettors have to take time off, or exercise patience and realize the best bets come every couple of weeks. Let these bets come to you, don't force them.

[Jayvegas420]

I'm opening my 2nd beer & I can't help thinking about how much money I'm leaving on the table if I don't pound Stamps to cover.