1. 03-23-11 06:00 PM #1
    CHUBNUT
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    Mlb betting

    not long to opening day so a thread to chat I dont want to get into a quantum theory exercise but from my view the whole baseball betting world has gone far too indulgent in the stats of the game. when you look at the difference between the top 100 pitchers in any category its insignificant compared to the bookmakers margins on a game. Whats funny is bettors think baseball is a wonderful medium because of the vig whereas te truth is the randomness will kill all but the best.

    So post your thoughts but I will give you the best advantage betting MLB unknown to man. I fully expect the dopes on here with their mathematically obsessed retarded brains to cry foul and banter on about ERA WHIP and other stupidity that leads to losses. The answer is actually not far from some sort of truth to the point that the pitcher is the most significant difference in the game but not for the reasons most put store in.

    I hope my english is good enough for mexican immigrants like durito and donjuan. Its good that we can pass on info to 3rd world people who can better themselves on spread betting etc as opposed to who can piss higher up the wall.
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  2. 03-23-11 06:14 PM #2
    wiffle
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    move plz
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  3. 03-23-11 08:17 PM #3
    bztips
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHUBNUT View Post
    bettors think baseball is a wonderful medium because of the vig whereas te truth is the randomness will kill all but the best.
    Potential nominee for dumbest post of the year
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  4. 03-23-11 08:19 PM #4
    Brutusdigger
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    more info plze....thnks
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  5. 03-23-11 11:11 PM #5
    illfuuptn
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    When will people learn that variance DOES NOT change expected value...
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  6. 03-24-11 02:35 AM #6
    donjuan
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    I thought the mathematically obsessed using ERA was a nice touch.
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  7. 03-24-11 09:17 AM #7
    kpoutlaw
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHUBNUT View Post
    I will give you the best advantage betting MLB unknown to man.
    That's quite a bold statement to make but who am I to judge? Good luck and I hope you will share this elusive secret that is "unknown to man." I've read several of your posts/theads and have enjoyed your friendly or not so friendly banter with others on this forum. LOL. I do have one question though, which I hope you will not find offensive. Are you really 79?
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  8. 03-24-11 10:00 AM #8
    jimbojpc
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    ok Lets get this going
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  9. 03-24-11 01:24 PM #9
    donjuan
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    Quote Originally Posted by kpoutlaw View Post
    That's quite a bold statement to make but who am I to judge? Good luck and I hope you will share this elusive secret that is "unknown to man." I've read several of your posts/theads and have enjoyed your friendly or not so friendly banter with others on this forum. LOL. I do have one question though, which I hope you will not find offensive. Are you really 79?
    The senility and rambling nonsense would lead most to think yes.
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  10. 03-24-11 02:16 PM #10
    Dark Horse
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    If this is about the greatest secret known to man, you can't tell, because then it wouldn't be a secret anymore.
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  11. 03-24-11 03:30 PM #11
    CHUBNUT
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    I see the mexicans are getting riled again
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  12. 03-24-11 03:31 PM #12
    Maverick22
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    no need for racist comments bro
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  13. 03-24-11 03:48 PM #13
    CHUBNUT
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Horse View Post
    If this is about the greatest secret known to man, you can't tell, because then it wouldn't be a secret anymore.
    who cares, I'm 79 and I'm dying. I'll leave you lot to waste your life rambling on about EV and kelly. I've made a living from betting over the last 20 years through a knowledge of 40 prior years of losing and understanding betting isnt something that can be conviently packaged by math formula and perceived edge, as most of you secretly know

    I wont be posting much in the near future as Gamblers Anonymous has asked me to help with some of their more delusional inmates but I will post the strategy for successful baseball betting before the season starts. its important that you cleanse yourself of some of the theoretical nonsense you read on a daily basis on all sports forums and dont let egotistic posters belittle you with their bamboozling prattle.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Bluehorseshoe
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  14. 03-24-11 04:22 PM #14
    bztips
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    So he's taken only 60 years to get to the high level of expertise he's displaying now
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  15. 03-24-11 04:39 PM #15
    CHUBNUT
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    Quote Originally Posted by bztips View Post
    So he's taken only 60 years to get to the high level of expertise he's displaying now
    your good at math bet you cant say the same for your betting people are so in denial when it comes to gambling. I've seen them lose their marriage and home and still be convinced they are winning . its hardly surprising everyone on an anonymous internet forum are all winning bettors

    the minds a funny thing
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  16. 03-24-11 05:04 PM #16
    jetsjets1028
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    too hard bet on preseason mlb
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  17. 03-24-11 05:29 PM #17
    trixtrix
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHUBNUT View Post

    So post your thoughts but I will give you the best advantage betting MLB unknown to man.
    what are you, a martian?
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  18. 03-24-11 11:17 PM #18
    Inspirited
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    more like a troll, nothing here move on
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  19. 03-25-11 08:48 AM #19
    jds07v
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHUBNUT View Post
    \ Whats funny is bettors think baseball is a wonderful medium because of the vig whereas te truth is the randomness will kill all but the best.

    I think the exact opposite. The randomness always works itself out in baseball. The season is so long (larger sample size) that the variance / randomness does not have that big of an impact.

    David Wright had a BABIP of almost .400 during his hot streak last summer. When that # returned to normal, so did his BA and RBI output. Of any sport, baseball probably has the most DAILY randomness, but the least Season-long randomness
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