LTA's NFL PLays

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 16

Play #1

Eagles/Cowboys over (50) 4x (Locked)

Some outlets have 50.5, which is acceptable, but do not take this over the key number 51. I expect a lot of offense in this game as both defenses are middle of the pack and both offenses are top 8 when you factor in a healthy Vick. We don't have to worry about weather and Philly will pull out all the stops as they have nothing to lose at this point. In the last game, Philly won 34-7 in a game that stayed under the posted total of 49. However, in this game, you had an opener between 50-51. There's a reason the books are going higher despite the reputation for NFC East unders -- that reputation was built on defense and this division does not play defense anymore outside of the Skins. With Ware's neck bothering him and limiting some of his disruptiveness, I just don't see how the Cowboys can limit that dangerous Philly attack behind a healthy Vick and a dominate McCoy. Jackson and Maclin will play and Celek is always a threat in a middle against a Cowboys secondary that loves to give up the big play. I have this game set at 55 and this is just too much value to pass up. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Chargers/Lions over (51) 1x (Locked)

I worry about he success of Detroit's defense against the pass with this play, but SD is just playing too well right now for that to really discourage me from making this play. SD's offense continues to move up the advanced efficiency ratings week by week as they have put up 30+ for three straight weeks now. Even with Suh back, I don't think Detroit can stop this two pronged attack of pounding Mathews and hitting the tall, fast and athletic receivers on the outside. Likewise, SD's defense is still suspect despite a great performance against Baltimore who plays much worse on the road than at home. I see now way that SD can cover Megatron and his double coverage will open up Burleson and the tight end up the middle. Detroit's offense gets better every week with the recovery of Stafford from the finger issue, so as his accuracy increases, so does the offensive efficiency of the Lions. I have this game set at 54 and we are getting a full field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Buccaneers/Panthers over (48) 1x (Locked)

These are two of the worst defenses in the league and I expect a track-meet, especially in the running game. Literally, I don't need to get into too much of a writeup in this game. TB is decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and I see no way for them to stop Cam and that dangerous Panther running/play action game. On the other side, this game should allow for TB to pad their stats a bit with Blount coming off his worst performance this year against the Cowboys. I expect this soft run defense to be just what the doctor ordered for Blount and for him to gash the Panther defense for some big runs and screen/swing plays. I just don't see either team wanting to play too much defense in this game as it has track-meet written all over it. I expect both teams to score in this game and I have it set at 50. However, I actually expect this one to be one of the more entertaining games and would not be surprised to see it fly over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

49'ers/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

The only thing holding me back from making this a bigger play is that SF will only be playing on 4 days rest. However, other than that, this is a nice looking under play for me. Both defenses are playing at the top of their game right now and both ranked in the top 5 in the case of SF and top 10 in the case of Seattle in rushing and passing DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. With Willis possibly coming back for SF, that will only help this dominate defense. On the other side of the ball, both teams are bottom 1/3 of the league in most advanced efficiency stats. With Jackson nursing a sore chest, I think SF really puts a hurting on him. We've been burned in recent weeks playing Seahawks unders but this Saturday that streak will end. I have this one set at 35 and I am expecting a strong defensive game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Dolphins/Patriots over (49) 1x and over (48) 1x for total of 2x(Locked)

I jumped the gun a little buying a unit at 49, but I like this one to sail into the 50's as I have it set at 52. Weather doesn't concern me and defense will be scarce. I just don't see the Dolphins stopping the two-headed tight end monster that NE employs. On the other side, NE's defense always good for giving up 17-21. All we need is an average game out of NE in scoring 28-35 and I think Matt Moore can put around 21 on the board for Miami. The advanced stats love the over here and so do I, so I am rolling that way for 2x. Good luck.

Play #6

Raiders/Chiefs over (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Wanted to get 41, but this one started to move up so I am locking this one up at 41.5. I don't feel the need to buy the hook here because it either stays way under or flies way over. I don't see this one being close either way. Last week, the Chiefs showed an ability to move the ball with Orton in on offense. Ultimately, they were stopped inside GB's 5 yard line on multiple occasions and settled for field goals. I don't think that will happen again on Saturday as another week of practice and timing should help Orton and the KC offensive players gel enough to push this one well over 42 points. I think we see a close game with scores being answered from each team and have this game set at 44.5. Therefore, I like the value in this spot and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Broncos/Bills over (41) 1x (Locked)

Locked this one up as soon as I saw 41. The Bills defense is atrocious against the run and that's what the Broncos do best. Once I heard McGahee was playing, this became a play for me. I expect that option offense to find success against the Bills and their struggling D. Tebow is improving and should have some open receivers down field as a result of their successful running game. Hopefully, he can hit his targets on Saturday. Even though the Broncos have had some success defensively, their advanced numbers are still middle of the pack. Therefore, with Fitzpatrick playing at home, I am hopefully they can put together a nice offensive performance like against the Jets. Spiller should hit some big plays and open up the play action pass a bit for Buffalo. This is another low total for this matchup which I have set at 44. I think we have some value here and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Giants/Jets over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I expect scoring to be up and defense to be scarce throughout the league this Saturday and the game in NY should be no different. The Giants defense is horrible, ranked in the bottom 1/3 of rushing and passing defense in DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. On the other side, the Jets defense is very highly ranked but has been giving up the big play and a lot of points recently. Both offenses had been rolling along hotly until last week. I think we see a renewed success for both Sanchez and Manning in this game as both criticized qb's know this is a must win game. I want to be sure to cover the key number of 45 here, so I am going to buy the hook. It might hit 45 before the game, but I will not have time to watch the lines on Saturday because of family. I have this one set at 47 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Bears/Packers under (44) 1x (Locked)

The only way the Bears keep this close is on the defensive side of the ball and I expect a solid game from their top 5 defense on Sunday night. The Bears defense is generally top 5 against both the pass and the run in advanced efficiency stats. On the other side, GB is #1 in most offensive passing categories. However, without Jennings and all the O-line injuries, we are starting to see a chink in GB's armor. They always have Rodgers which makes them a possible 30 point production in every game. However, against this defense, that will be a tough task considering all the GB offensive injuries. With the Bears offense being outright pathetic without Cutler and Forte, I am not worried that GB's defense is struggling. McCown is starting for the first time in a long time and he will be rusty. The Bears offense is poor and I expect their defense to play well. I have this game set at 42, so we are getting 2 points of value. With the poor Bears offense, I have to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Pick'nParlays]

Orlovsky kiiiiiiiiidddddd!!!!! I said it all this time!!! The kid is a stud

you have 33 posts fool.

[Love The Action]

Glad I passed last night...

[BiffTFinancial]

you have 33 posts fool.

[Prize Marlin]

you have 33 posts fool.

Eat it! Orlovsky about to get paid

[Redscot]

Glad I passed last night...

As well you should be my man . Guess that puts the suck for Luck conspiracies to bed. I think players laying down is such an overused assumption. It is a very rare happening when professional players tank. Playing uninspired because they have lost respect for the coach (looking at you Dennis Erickson, what a mess) is another matter.

[Love The Action]

As well you should be my man . Guess that puts the suck for Luck conspiracies to bed. I think players laying down is such an overused assumption. It is a very rare happening when professional players tank. Playing uninspired because they have lost respect for the coach (looking at you Dennis Erickson, what a mess) is another matter.

Agree 100%

[YouHave2outs]

Weather. People freak out about a possibility of snow. However, I have seen NE put up over 30 points in much worse weather than we will see on saturday. GL.

thanks for the response LTA. i think i will be playing this over

[gRamblin' Man]

Lets get it this weekend LTA. Loving the plays so far

[wguan2]

I agree Red. Should've taken your advice LTA. BOL this weekend

[blumpkin]

Good looking card LTA. Love the fins/pats over as i see 50 out there. Pats D cant stop a nose bleed, and with the offense rolling it will be my biggest play today. Good Luck

[Delirium tremens]

.......and the weather here is nice today in Foxboro!

[lonelynoob]

good luck today fellas, lets get this money .....

[Nova0387]

So you still would play 51 on cowboys game or no.

[BobbyD914]

Hey LTA if the giants lose the earlier game do u think that will hurt the chances of the dallas game going over?

[letsgo]

Hey LTA if the giants lose the earlier game do u think that will hurt the chances of the dallas game going over?

I think that helps, Eagles will be motivated if Giants lose.

[Love The Action]

I'm going to be looking at the line movement of the Eagles/Cowboys game. If it drops back down to 50 at Pinny, I may buy out 2x of the 4x play .

If the Jets beat the Giants, that knocks the Eagles out of the playoffs and ensures the Cowboys will play for the division crown against the Giants. Conceivably, this hurts the motivation for both teams. To me, I just want to see the Jets win so all this is moot and I can just let the play fly. I still like the over here, but this does add some wrinkles.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 16

Play #1

Eagles/Cowboys over (50) 4x (Locked)

Some outlets have 50.5, which is acceptable, but do not take this over the key number 51. I expect a lot of offense in this game as both defenses are middle of the pack and both offenses are top 8 when you factor in a healthy Vick. We don't have to worry about weather and Philly will pull out all the stops as they have nothing to lose at this point. In the last game, Philly won 34-7 in a game that stayed under the posted total of 49. However, in this game, you had an opener between 50-51. There's a reason the books are going higher despite the reputation for NFC East unders -- that reputation was built on defense and this division does not play defense anymore outside of the Skins. With Ware's neck bothering him and limiting some of his disruptiveness, I just don't see how the Cowboys can limit that dangerous Philly attack behind a healthy Vick and a dominate McCoy. Jackson and Maclin will play and Celek is always a threat in a middle against a Cowboys secondary that loves to give up the big play. I have this game set at 55 and this is just too much value to pass up. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Chargers/Lions over (51) 1x (Locked)

I worry about he success of Detroit's defense against the pass with this play, but SD is just playing too well right now for that to really discourage me from making this play. SD's offense continues to move up the advanced efficiency ratings week by week as they have put up 30+ for three straight weeks now. Even with Suh back, I don't think Detroit can stop this two pronged attack of pounding Mathews and hitting the tall, fast and athletic receivers on the outside. Likewise, SD's defense is still suspect despite a great performance against Baltimore who plays much worse on the road than at home. I see now way that SD can cover Megatron and his double coverage will open up Burleson and the tight end up the middle. Detroit's offense gets better every week with the recovery of Stafford from the finger issue, so as his accuracy increases, so does the offensive efficiency of the Lions. I have this game set at 54 and we are getting a full field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Buccaneers/Panthers over (48) 1x (Locked)

These are two of the worst defenses in the league and I expect a track-meet, especially in the running game. Literally, I don't need to get into too much of a writeup in this game. TB is decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and I see no way for them to stop Cam and that dangerous Panther running/play action game. On the other side, this game should allow for TB to pad their stats a bit with Blount coming off his worst performance this year against the Cowboys. I expect this soft run defense to be just what the doctor ordered for Blount and for him to gash the Panther defense for some big runs and screen/swing plays. I just don't see either team wanting to play too much defense in this game as it has track-meet written all over it. I expect both teams to score in this game and I have it set at 50. However, I actually expect this one to be one of the more entertaining games and would not be surprised to see it fly over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

49'ers/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

The only thing holding me back from making this a bigger play is that SF will only be playing on 4 days rest. However, other than that, this is a nice looking under play for me. Both defenses are playing at the top of their game right now and both ranked in the top 5 in the case of SF and top 10 in the case of Seattle in rushing and passing DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. With Willis possibly coming back for SF, that will only help this dominate defense. On the other side of the ball, both teams are bottom 1/3 of the league in most advanced efficiency stats. With Jackson nursing a sore chest, I think SF really puts a hurting on him. We've been burned in recent weeks playing Seahawks unders but this Saturday that streak will end. I have this one set at 35 and I am expecting a strong defensive game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Dolphins/Patriots over (49) 1x and over (48) 1x for total of 2x(Locked)

I jumped the gun a little buying a unit at 49, but I like this one to sail into the 50's as I have it set at 52. Weather doesn't concern me and defense will be scarce. I just don't see the Dolphins stopping the two-headed tight end monster that NE employs. On the other side, NE's defense always good for giving up 17-21. All we need is an average game out of NE in scoring 28-35 and I think Matt Moore can put around 21 on the board for Miami. The advanced stats love the over here and so do I, so I am rolling that way for 2x. Good luck.

Play #6

Raiders/Chiefs over (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Wanted to get 41, but this one started to move up so I am locking this one up at 41.5. I don't feel the need to buy the hook here because it either stays way under or flies way over. I don't see this one being close either way. Last week, the Chiefs showed an ability to move the ball with Orton in on offense. Ultimately, they were stopped inside GB's 5 yard line on multiple occasions and settled for field goals. I don't think that will happen again on Saturday as another week of practice and timing should help Orton and the KC offensive players gel enough to push this one well over 42 points. I think we see a close game with scores being answered from each team and have this game set at 44.5. Therefore, I like the value in this spot and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Broncos/Bills over (41) 1x (Locked)

Locked this one up as soon as I saw 41. The Bills defense is atrocious against the run and that's what the Broncos do best. Once I heard McGahee was playing, this became a play for me. I expect that option offense to find success against the Bills and their struggling D. Tebow is improving and should have some open receivers down field as a result of their successful running game. Hopefully, he can hit his targets on Saturday. Even though the Broncos have had some success defensively, their advanced numbers are still middle of the pack. Therefore, with Fitzpatrick playing at home, I am hopefully they can put together a nice offensive performance like against the Jets. Spiller should hit some big plays and open up the play action pass a bit for Buffalo. This is another low total for this matchup which I have set at 44. I think we have some value here and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Giants/Jets over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I expect scoring to be up and defense to be scarce throughout the league this Saturday and the game in NY should be no different. The Giants defense is horrible, ranked in the bottom 1/3 of rushing and passing defense in DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. On the other side, the Jets defense is very highly ranked but has been giving up the big play and a lot of points recently. Both offenses had been rolling along hotly until last week. I think we see a renewed success for both Sanchez and Manning in this game as both criticized qb's know this is a must win game. I want to be sure to cover the key number of 45 here, so I am going to buy the hook. It might hit 45 before the game, but I will not have time to watch the lines on Saturday because of family. I have this one set at 47 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Bears/Packers under (44) 1x (Locked)

The only way the Bears keep this close is on the defensive side of the ball and I expect a solid game from their top 5 defense on Sunday night. The Bears defense is generally top 5 against both the pass and the run in advanced efficiency stats. On the other side, GB is #1 in most offensive passing categories. However, without Jennings and all the O-line injuries, we are starting to see a chink in GB's armor. They always have Rodgers which makes them a possible 30 point production in every game. However, against this defense, that will be a tough task considering all the GB offensive injuries. With the Bears offense being outright pathetic without Cutler and Forte, I am not worried that GB's defense is struggling. McCown is starting for the first time in a long time and he will be rusty. The Bears offense is poor and I expect their defense to play well. I have this game set at 42, so we are getting 2 points of value. With the poor Bears offense, I have to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

ACTION TEASER (Not for records win or lose)

Oakland (+9)/Giants (+8.5)/Seahawks (+7.5) 0.50x (+180) (Locked)

I see all three of these being competitive games that will be decided by a field goal. I am going to tease the all three dog up for 0.50x. Good luck.

[GChild]

Booooooom let's do this!!!!

[lonelynoob]

damn this is looking like an under weekend ..... kc playing for 3, buff missing multiple easy fg's ... the pats phins looking blah ..... not a good 1 oclock start ...

[southpaw74]

Patriots and Miami didn't show up for the game. Merry unchristmas to them

[lonelynoob]

ny giants 1st and goal from the 2 and they cant punch it in and kick a fg????? theres another under ..... damn what a crap day so far

[Love The Action]

ny giants 1st and goal from the 2 and they cant punch it in and kick a fg????? theres another under ..... damn what a crap day so far

Ughh...relax Noob. It's not even halftime of any of these games. I've suffered enough bad beats when I've had unders in games like this to last a lifetime, so you're getting all upset over nothing. Relax.

[Love The Action]

Patriots and Miami didn't show up for the game. Merry unchristmas to them

We got 10 points with 11 minutes left in the 2nd quarter. I think we're in great position. NE is not going to get shut out. I sense an explosion of points on the way.

[Love The Action]

Lot of frustrating drives getting inside the 5 yard line and not punching it in. I think in all of our games, we've had to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns even though these are high percentage touchdown situations. However, we have plenty of time left to get some scoring.

We're having my side of the family over for Christmas today, so I am checking out for the day. I will post through my phone if I make any more plays or adjust any current plays.

In the meantime, let's keep it positive and cash these tickets. Good luck and Merry Christmas.

[BigDan]

We got 10 points with 11 minutes left in the 2nd quarter. I think we're in great position. NE is not going to get shut out. I sense an explosion of points on the way.

i didnt play gm total but def gonna hop on 2nd half over...

hope you have a safe and happy holiday brother...

[lonelynoob]

i love ya lt , but you have been capping long enough to know when youre screwed on overs bro ..... and how many "bad beats" have gone your way ??? not enough .... have a good holiday my man ....

[Donnie Brasco]

This buffalo game should have gone over a long time ago. These teams have bee horrible in the redzone. Wow!

[Donnie Brasco]

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah as well by the way gentlemen! Buffalo just blew it again. Unreal!

[SlickRick1382]

Thought we had that Miami / Pats Over bet. Looks like Miami didn't come to play in the 2H.

P.S. I know we still have a shot needing only a TD but it shouldn't even be this close

On a side note are we buying back on the Philly / Cowboys game?

[FaM0us Skins]

You guys won the over! The final score is NE: 27 MIA: 24

[Dave88]

sheeesh... a lot of negative vibes going off early here.
3 from 5 so far today and a profit is okay by me.
thanks LTA, GL with the other picks and compliments of the festive season.

[Pelt]

LTA, could not get some of your early lines as I can only wager with my local on game day. Followed your write ups and took the ones that had value according to your analysis. Pats and Panthers so Boooom Boooom!! You are the best. Good luck tonight and thanks again!

[letsgo]

Romo knocked out, I doubt this goes over

[alamo]

Romo knocked out, I doubt this goes over

Nothing wrong with Romo. Its a smoke screen for next week. He was pulled as soon as the news that Giants won got thru to Dallas.