Week 10 NFL picks--(67% correct ATS on the season)

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  • CROANT
    SBR High Roller
    • 10-28-10
    • 145

    #771
    Bears over Pack!!!
    Comment
    • HiTMaNN
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-22-10
      • 774

      #772
      Originally posted by Maxlock

      Yea I originally posted them Wednesday
      My bad you know I have been tailing you since the beginning but people are really starting to crowd your thread.
      Comment
      • Maxlock
        Restricted User
        • 11-09-10
        • 397

        #773
        Originally posted by HiTMaNN
        My bad you know I have been tailing you since the beginning but people are really starting to crowd your thread.
        Yea i've started to notice that also. Especailly while I was gone for a week.

        I ask of everyone to keep this thread centered around NFL picks relating to analysis and/ or pick selections AS THEY pertain to MAXLOCK picks. Additional questions regarding certain games is always welcome. Other off topic issues belong elsewhere.

        This way we can leave MAXLock thread clear of junk messages and easier to navigate and see important posts.

        **I'll start analyzing both conference championships games tomorrow and have the plays up Wed/Thurs.

        Thanks,
        Max
        Comment
        • gilbert91016
          SBR MVP
          • 04-29-09
          • 1479

          #774
          Max I love Green Bay-3. What do u think??
          Comment
          • riggs
            Restricted User
            • 11-06-08
            • 1100

            #775
            Max, what's your email, we need to talk...
            Comment
            • Maxlock
              Restricted User
              • 11-09-10
              • 397

              #776
              Originally posted by riggs
              Max, what's your email, we need to talk...
              maxlock1@yahoo.com

              I PM'ed you twice on my smart phone, but it looks like they haven't been going through..I'll PM you once again on my laptop it.
              Comment
              • Maxlock
                Restricted User
                • 11-09-10
                • 397

                #777
                Originally posted by gilbert91016
                Max I love Green Bay-3. What do u think??
                At first glance I like GB -3, I want to do some more research before I officially make GB my pick. But if you're afraid it'll jump to -3.5 then I suggest you take them now at -3
                Comment
                • gilbert91016
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-29-09
                  • 1479

                  #778
                  Thank you max. I don't really wanna give the 3.5
                  Comment
                  • riggs
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-06-08
                    • 1100

                    #779
                    Originally posted by Maxlock
                    maxlock1@yahoo.com

                    I PM'ed you twice on my smart phone, but it looks like they haven't been going through..I'll PM you once again on my laptop it.
                    Great week again Max, Congrats buddy.

                    I was 8-1 myself (+ $4,700.00) for the weekend.

                    This Riggs-Max team for next year may be dangerous...

                    Email is sent Max, check your inbox and get back to me bro!
                    Comment
                    • shopbar picks
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-08-10
                      • 2157

                      #780
                      you are the man max. Many thanx. I will send points when i figure it out. Again thanx what a great weekend
                      Comment
                      • VTranX
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-02-10
                        • 1975

                        #781
                        Are you playing NBA tomorrow?
                        Comment
                        • Oli
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 11-17-10
                          • 81

                          #782
                          good luck this weekend
                          Comment
                          • Maxlock
                            Restricted User
                            • 11-09-10
                            • 397

                            #783
                            Originally posted by VTranX
                            Are you playing NBA tomorrow?
                            Nope, just NFL. It's where I'm best at and can make you guys $.

                            I'll be back next season.

                            Riggs and myself will probably combine each others capping abilities and open up a web site, along with his weekly radio show.
                            Last edited by Maxlock; 01-17-11, 10:32 AM.
                            Comment
                            • Capybara
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-17-08
                              • 11803

                              #784
                              Max, another perfect weekend for you, wow!

                              Just 2-2 for me ATS, but + units from huge chunk on Bears. My initial gut screamed Jets (and I even posted that in a couple of threads), but I'm such a Pats homer that I switched over. Oh well.

                              Anyway, great work! Since you are hitting a legit 65% (and a silly 100% in the playoffs thus far), I've got to tip my hat -- much respect, brother. Expect your thread to start getting even more hits!
                              Comment
                              • Maxlock
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-09-10
                                • 397

                                #785
                                Originally posted by Capybara
                                Max, another perfect weekend for you, wow!

                                Just 2-2 for me ATS, but + units from huge chunk on Bears. My initial gut screamed Jets (and I even posted that in a couple of threads), but I'm such a Pats homer that I switched over. Oh well.

                                Anyway, great work! Since you are hitting a legit 65% (and a silly 100% in the playoffs thus far), I've got to tip my hat -- much respect, brother. Expect your thread to start getting even more hits!
                                Thank you
                                Comment
                                • martinmobley
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 04-25-09
                                  • 159

                                  #786
                                  Another great weekend Maxlock! Great job. Hey, I have a general betting question for you guys. I've been betting for a couple years and I'm embarassed to say I might not know the answer. I placed a halftime NBA bet on the Nuggets last night that was a pick em. They were down by 13 at the half and when the game ended they were down by 13. There was no change in the margin of points. I thought this would be a push. This morning it counted as a loss. Is this the difference between pick em and moneyline? Thanks.
                                  Comment
                                  • Maxlock
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 11-09-10
                                    • 397

                                    #787
                                    Originally posted by martinmobley
                                    Another great weekend Maxlock! Great job. Hey, I have a general betting question for you guys. I've been betting for a couple years and I'm embarassed to say I might not know the answer. I placed a halftime NBA bet on the Nuggets last night that was a pick em. They were down by 13 at the half and when the game ended they were down by 13. There was no change in the margin of points. I thought this would be a push. This morning it counted as a loss. Is this the difference between pick em and moneyline? Thanks.
                                    If I interepreted your question right...it is indeed a lose.

                                    You bet Denver PK for the first half, meaning for you to win your bet the would have to be leading by at least 1 pt at halftime. If the score was tied at half it would be a push. In your case Denver was losing by 13 pts at halftime, resulting in a lose.

                                    Since you bet the first half only, the 2nd half doesn't come into play at all.
                                    Comment
                                    • Pap45murF
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 08-30-09
                                      • 610

                                      #788
                                      "I placed a halftime NBA bet on the Nuggets last night that was a pick em"

                                      I think he's saying he placed a ML bet AT halftime and the 2nd half resulted in an tie. I thought this was a push, but different sports books have different rules.
                                      Comment
                                      • Maxlock
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-09-10
                                        • 397

                                        #789
                                        Originally posted by Pap45murF
                                        "I placed a halftime NBA bet on the Nuggets last night that was a pick em"

                                        I think he's saying he placed a ML bet AT halftime and the 2nd half resulted in an tie. I thought this was a push, but different sports books have different rules.
                                        Oh I see now. In that case it would seem like a push, but as you noted different sportsbooks have different rules.

                                        Martin, ask your sportsbook to clarify that for you.
                                        Comment
                                        • martinmobley
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 04-25-09
                                          • 159

                                          #790
                                          Originally posted by Pap45murF
                                          "I placed a halftime NBA bet on the Nuggets last night that was a pick em"

                                          I think he's saying he placed a ML bet AT halftime and the 2nd half resulted in an tie. I thought this was a push, but different sports books have different rules.
                                          Exactly.... I placed a 2nd half bet that was PK and there was no change in the margin of points. The Nuggets started the 2nd half at 13 points down and finished the game at 13 points down. I don't understand why it wasn't a push. I don't see why different sports books would have different rules either. Should be black and white. I'll check with my bookie, I just didn't want to bother them with a stupid question.
                                          Comment
                                          • martinmobley
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 04-25-09
                                            • 159

                                            #791
                                            Originally posted by Maxlock
                                            If I interepreted your question right...it is indeed a lose.

                                            You bet Denver PK for the first half, meaning for you to win your bet the would have to be leading by at least 1 pt at halftime. If the score was tied at half it would be a push. In your case Denver was losing by 13 pts at halftime, resulting in a lose.

                                            Since you bet the first half only, the 2nd half doesn't come into play at all.
                                            I'm not THAT dumb Maxlock!! Geeeeez... haha...
                                            Comment
                                            • martinmobley
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 04-25-09
                                              • 159

                                              #792
                                              Thanks for the response guys... I will follow up.
                                              Comment
                                              • Capybara
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 08-17-08
                                                • 11803

                                                #793
                                                Originally posted by martinmobley
                                                Exactly.... I placed a 2nd half bet that was PK and there was no change in the margin of points. The Nuggets started the 2nd half at 13 points down and finished the game at 13 points down. I don't understand why it wasn't a push. I don't see why different sports books would have different rules either. Should be black and white. I'll check with my bookie, I just didn't want to bother them with a stupid question.
                                                I can't see anyway that should be graded as a loss. That is a push. Are you sure you didn't get in a -0.5 bet? Perhaps the line had changed right at the end?

                                                Or maybe there really are special rules with o/u 2h bets...? Never had that happen.
                                                Comment
                                                • Capybara
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 08-17-08
                                                  • 11803

                                                  #794
                                                  Originally posted by martinmobley
                                                  Thanks for the response guys... I will follow up.
                                                  Think I've got your answer, Martin:

                                                  The Nuggets weren't down by 13 at halftime, they were down by 12! Bet was a loser.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • martinmobley
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 04-25-09
                                                    • 159

                                                    #795
                                                    Just figured that out... I'm a tard.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • CROANT
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 10-28-10
                                                      • 145

                                                      #796
                                                      Back to football - Bears +3 is the play for this guy...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Maxlock
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-09-10
                                                        • 397

                                                        #797
                                                        Originally posted by CROANT
                                                        Back to football - Bears +3 is the play for this guy...
                                                        I'm leaning GB...

                                                        What's your reasoning for Chi+3
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Maxlock
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 11-09-10
                                                          • 397

                                                          #798
                                                          Only three games left...Lots of pressure to deliver for you guys

                                                          With three games left in the playoffs and currently standing at 6-0, I'm shooting for a 9-0 ATS record out of a possible 11 games ( not counting over/unders)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Stevedore
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-10-10
                                                            • 1218

                                                            #799
                                                            Originally posted by CROANT
                                                            Back to football - Bears +3 is the play for this guy...
                                                            Be careful..going to be a good game IMO. Lovie's Tampa 2 scheme always seems to limit Rodgers and his explosive passing game but with the emergence of James Starks I see GB prevailing in this one.

                                                            Cutler won't have all day to throw like he did against Seattle. Get him off his spot and on the move and he'll throw picks. Did it last game and I see him doing it again. Pack in this one.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bigkrezca32
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 10-14-10
                                                              • 88

                                                              #800
                                                              Things to keep in mind...

                                                              Bears special teams in the best in the NFL, while the Packers teams has been prone to coverage lapses....The bears not only have great return men (including the best of them all) but also have very good coverage units....If the Bears use this to their advantage and make the Packers use time (long drives) to get their points, they can absolutely win.

                                                              Rodgers has not been fantastic yet vs the Bears. He's not been bad by any means, but he has had only 2 TD's to 2 INTs in the 2 previous games vs the Bears. I dont foresee Rodgers going off for 350 and 3 TD's against this Bears team....Further, their bend but don't break defense will give Rodgers some yards but they've been fantastic all season preventing TD's. This Packers offense is reliant on Rodgers. If he's average, the bears will probably win.

                                                              Week 17 the Bears reverted to their pre bye week offense (40 passes to 20 rushes) and scored 3 points. Don't expect that again. If the Bears can control field position through special teams, make Rodgers use time to get his points (prevent big plays) and get some semblance of a running game going, they'll win the game.

                                                              Will this all happen? I don't know......but the public sure is giving the bears no chance to win this game (75% on GB-3 according to sportsinsights).
                                                              Last edited by bigkrezca32; 01-17-11, 02:15 PM.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • bigkrezca32
                                                                SBR Hustler
                                                                • 10-14-10
                                                                • 88

                                                                #801
                                                                Originally posted by Stevedore
                                                                Be careful..going to be a good game IMO. Lovie's Tampa 2 scheme always seems to limit Rodgers and his explosive passing game but with the emergence of James Starks I see GB prevailing in this one.

                                                                Cutler won't have all day to throw like he did against Seattle. Get him off his spot and on the move and he'll throw picks. Did it last game and I see him doing it again. Pack in this one.

                                                                The emergence of James Starks? He's had 1 good game vs the Eagles (23 for 123) and 1 not so good (25 for 66)......And you think he'll be able to run on the Bears D that is 2nd in the NFL in rush d?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Stevedore
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-10-10
                                                                  • 1218

                                                                  #802
                                                                  Originally posted by bigkrezca32
                                                                  The emergence of James Starks? He's had 1 good game vs the Eagles (23 for 123) and 1 not so good (25 for 66)......And you think he'll be able to run on the Bears D that is 2nd in the NFL in rush d?
                                                                  They don't have to get a lot of yards on the ground against the Bears to be successful. It's all about the attempts with GB's running game. 25 for 70 yards will be more than enough against the Bears. It's the threat of the run and favorable down and distance that is the key to GB's offense. Stay away from the 2nd and 9's, 3rd and 10's and they'll be fine.

                                                                  On ST's they punted away from Hester out of bounds and when he did catch it he was pinned on the sidelines. Expect more of the same.

                                                                  What is Cutler and his average receivers going to do against GB's secondary? Contain Forte on the ground which they did last game and make Cutler beat you with his arm. Don't think it's in him to do that.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • riggs
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                                    • 1100

                                                                    #803
                                                                    Originally posted by CROANT
                                                                    Back to football - Bears +3 is the play for this guy...
                                                                    Good luck with that, I don't care if if 90% of the public is on Green Bay, I'll be on the Packers!!!

                                                                    Looks like 80% is on the Pack now, and the spread is rising, as it's at -3.5 now...

                                                                    65-70% of the public is also on the Steelers as that line is now at -3.5
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • riggs
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                                      • 1100

                                                                      #804
                                                                      Did you get the email Max?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Maxlock
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 11-09-10
                                                                        • 397

                                                                        #805
                                                                        Originally posted by riggs
                                                                        Did you get the email Max?
                                                                        Yes. Did you get my reply?
                                                                        Comment
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