1. #1
    Cutler'sThumb
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    West Coast Prime Time Trend

    I'm creating this thread to document a trend I've been following with consistent success for at least the last 5 years.
    There aren't that many plays in a season, but the historical hit rate is around 65%.

    Here's the premise of the trend:
    Our bodies have a natural bio rhythm that peaks around 5:00 PM. This means if you have to do something that requires you to really physically push yourself, the results will be best around this time. A NFL game is largely a contest of who can physically dominate who. Prime time games start at 5:20 PM for teams who play on the west coast. Players who live on the west coast (during the season at least) are acclimated to that time zone...prime time games are starting just as their body's are just reaching the peak physical of their day. Players who live in the central time zone or eastern time zone are now 2-3 hours beyond their body's daily peak. Result? Players from the west coast are going to have a slight physical edge over opponents who are from the central or eastern time zones. This means they should generally be able to outperform the odds makers.
    So any time we have a prime time game (7:20 central time for me) where a west coast team plays a team from the central or eastern time zones, you take the west coast team ats. This is regardless of location.
    *Leave out the few mountain time zone teams because they're too close in time to the west coast team, so the advantage wasn't enough when I back tested.
    **I also leave out Arizona. Something about how sometimes they're on mountain time and sometimes on west coast time must screw things up, but they also weren't worth including when I back tested

  2. #2
    Cutler'sThumb
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    2023 West Coast Prime Time Trend

    9/21 Niners (-10.5) vs Giants, Niners win 30-12 WIN
    9/24 Raiders (-3) vs Steelers, Steelers win 23-18 LOSS
    10/2 Sea (-2.5) vs Giants, Sea wins 24-3 WIN
    10/8 Niners (-3.5) vs Cowboys, Niners win 42-10 WIN
    10/9 Raiders (-1.5) vs Packers, Raiders win 17-13 WIN
    10/16 Chargers (+1.5) vs Dallas, Dallas wins 20-17 LOSS
    10/23 Niners (-7) vs Vikings, Vikings win 22-17 LOSS
    10/29 Chargers (-10.5) vs Bears, Chargers win 30-13 WIN
    10/30 Raiders (+7) vs Lions, Lions win 26-14 LOSS
    11/6 Chargers (-3) vs Jets, Chargers win 27-6 WIN
    11/12 Raiders (+1.5) vs Jets, Raiders win 16-12 WIN
    11/26 Chargers (+3) vs Ravens, Ravens win 20-10 LOSS
    11/30 Sea (+9) vs Dallas, Dallas wins 41-35 WIN

    8-5 so far this season with 4 more games plus the playoffs
    Last edited by Cutler'sThumb; 12-01-23 at 05:06 AM.

  3. #3
    budwiser
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    great post about 5pm didn't know that

    remember that's just 1 factor in your checklist

  4. #4
    Foxx
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    Kind of reminds me that old angle of West Coast teams playing early games on the East Coast.

    I don't see any games that fit the angle the rest of the season, but maybe I overlooked one.

    I do see a number East Coast time teams playing the late game on the west coast coming up.

  5. #5
    jackpot269
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    GL, hope you break the bookies.

  6. #6
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foxx View Post
    Kind of reminds me that old angle of West Coast teams playing early games on the East Coast.

    I don't see any games that fit the angle the rest of the season, but maybe I overlooked one.

    I do see a number East Coast time teams playing the late game on the west coast coming up.
    Was thinking the same thing.

  7. #7
    OldBill
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    look at word TREND take away TR what you go left is END

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