1. #1
    Aunty808
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    Trying something different

    I don't know if regression is specific to one method or no matter what I do, everytning comes up losers until the regression stops.

    I'm sure you've all heard of game simulations. In the NFL season, I remember someone doing the game simulations on an xbox to get a prediction of how the games would turn out.

    I found a site that does game simulations for the MLB baseball games. They do it for 1000's of times before they make a prediction.

    I looked at today's game predictions for the pitchers involved, see how the simulations did in previous games, then looked at my matchup scoring to see if the two matched up.
    Sounds kinda complicated by it's not. Here's an example of todays game that just got over. I wanted to see the results of that game before posting.

    The game sim ( short for simulation) predicted France to win today.
    Past results for France were, when predicted to win, sim was correct 3 out of 3 times.
    The game sim for Anderson predicted a loss today.
    Past results when predicting Anderson to lose were 3 for 3 correct.

    Houston won 6-4. The game sim was correct again today.
    ==============
    I did the Oak/Det game.

    Game sim predicts Waldichuk to lose today.
    When predicting Waldichuk to lose, past results went 4 for 4 correct.

    Game sim predicts Rodriguez to win today.
    When predicting Rodriguez to win, past results went 4 for 4 correct.

    I played Det-225 in my contest but for tracking purposes, I played it at only $100.

    Gonna keep an eye on the games where the game sims were correct on both ends and track them.

    **This is just an experiment! Use caution! Big favorite.

  2. #2
    Aunty808
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    I didn't mean to start another thread, supposed to be with the other one. But since I did and since it's a different method, I'll just post the rest of whatever games I do using the game simulations here.

    I also took Wash-105 because the game sim was perfect when predicting Ashcraft to lose, 6 out 6 times.
    Game sim predicted Gray to win 5 games, he won 6 in his past results. Shouldn't have bet this one. We'll see how it turns out.
    I want to try and stick to the perfect predicted sims for the pitchers for now.

  3. #3
    Aunty808
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    Forget it....

    RIP (this thread) ......not worth the trouble. No matter what I do, regression is right on my tail.

    Gonna just give everything a rest for now, just concentrate on my BTS and survivor contests.

  4. #4
    Optional
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    Why don't you try throwing your ideas out in the Handicapper Think Tank forum instead of Newbies.

    You will get more engagement and maybe some useful feedback.

  5. #5
    captrobey
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    I use Accuscore as a tool to go with the numbers i look at. I guess it is the same as what you do but i do not base my entire decision on it.

  6. #6
    Aunty808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Why don't you try throwing your ideas out in the Handicapper Think Tank forum instead of Newbies.

    You will get more engagement and maybe some useful feedback.
    ...or eaten alive! They are seasoned members and I am not.....they are "pros", I am not. I will have to muster up some courage to post there. We'll see after the AS break this upcoming week.

    At MLB/Play, beside BTS, they are running a Homerun Derby like this forum. Didn't read the rules yet, but will try and enter, perfect bracket, $100k. I saw the contest in the MLB Betting forum, but usually when betting forums hold contest, you must have an account with the book that's holding the contest.

  7. #7
    Aunty808
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    Quote Originally Posted by captrobey View Post
    I use Accuscore as a tool to go with the numbers i look at. I guess it is the same as what you do but i do not base my entire decision on it.
    I think I read too much because I get sidetracked from what I was originally looking for. There's so much information out on the 'net it give me a headache trying to absorb it all. This is the first year I have the time to do research. Covid kept me out of work for three months, and doc gave the ok to go back, but only working a 20 hour week. Prior to Covid, I was working a 60 hour week. The longest BTS streak I had was 8. This year, with time to do research, I got to 15.
    I try to keep thing simple but sometimes too much info is just as bad as not having enough. My toolbox is filled to the max. I just gotta figure out which tools works best together. I'm still trying to figure things out.....

    Thanks for stopping by....good luck with your bets!

  8. #8
    StifflersMom
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    Intersting for sure.

  9. #9
    BradytheK9
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    Sometimes I end up just flipping a coin (lucky coin) if im in hurry or just not in mood to research. If im doing picks for NFL games when I flip coin Heads = Favorite & Tails=Underdog, then Heads=Over, Tails= Under.

  10. #10
    Aunty808
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    Quote Originally Posted by StifflersMom View Post
    Intersting for sure.
    Hope to have a better streak next year. This year was the first time I actually had time to really try different methods. I have a notebook with all my tools ready for next year.

    I frequent alot of discussion boards and I'm sure I've seen your username somewhere. I don't remember the forum but seeing your username is like bumping into an old friend! You are an "old timer" like me.....I just don't post much, mostly read and lurk.
    BOL to you!

  11. #11
    Aunty808
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    Quote Originally Posted by BradytheK9 View Post
    Sometimes I end up just flipping a coin (lucky coin) if im in hurry or just not in mood to research. If im doing picks for NFL games when I flip coin Heads = Favorite & Tails=Underdog, then Heads=Over, Tails= Under.

    One of my motto's is the "KISS......Keep It Simple, Stupid" method. Sometimes too much info just complicates things.

    Take for instance this year, the KISS method is being applied to the NCAAF and NFL Systems I am doing. NCAAF, just three stats, and the NFL just 2 stats. Throw in a couple of other factors I take into consideration before the final picks and that's it. In tracking the System last week, the NCAAF had very good results, both SU and ATS. The NFL, to my surprise, also had very good results. I'm still scratching my head, saying it can't be that easy.......I'll see how the System does this week.....maybe last week was just a fluke. Stay tuned....
    Best of luck with your coin flip picks!!

  12. #12
    captrobey
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aunty808 View Post
    I think I read too much because I get sidetracked from what I was originally looking for. There's so much information out on the 'net it give me a headache trying to absorb it all. This is the first year I have the time to do research. Covid kept me out of work for three months, and doc gave the ok to go back, but only working a 20 hour week. Prior to Covid, I was working a 60 hour week. The longest BTS streak I had was 8. This year, with time to do research, I got to 15.
    I try to keep thing simple but sometimes too much info is just as bad as not having enough. My toolbox is filled to the max. I just gotta figure out which tools works best together. I'm still trying to figure things out.....

    Thanks for stopping by....good luck with your bets!
    That is awesome if you got to 15 in a row. But yea there is a lot of info out there. If i see good numbers first i will look at AS after that too see if they match . If they do i feel a bit more confident going with it.

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