RLM System Plays

R19 · 02-02-12, 12:53 PM

Way out west and love watching SEC ball.

Automoto · 02-02-12, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

Little bit hard for me to follow, but going to go over your spreadsheet... your numbers seem way different than mine at my first glance for instance... 27-9 in games <=8 with .5 movement or greater is way different than what I got.

Also I know it's early but has anyone else noticed that every single nba game today so far is considered an RLM? wtf? oh sorry except for one of them because theres not enough bets yet but im sure there will be by game time.

The PAC 12 also looks like it could line up for RLM play too...HMMMM

detroitigerz · 02-02-12, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by Automoto

The PAC 12 also looks like it could line up for RLM play too...HMMMM

Your avatar wouldn't happen to be you would it?

wiseguy007 · 02-02-12, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by staf

Have punched the spreads into my spreadsheet and added a calculator to test detroitigerz maximum spread and minimum line movement filters.

I'm getting a maximum spread of 8 as ideal, and the one day that static line movement was posted they went 2-1 using a maximum spread of 8.

Automoto · 02-02-12, 01:14 PM

LOL... No...just another young hot body on the internet

wiseguy007 · 02-02-12, 01:18 PM

Games to Watch 2/02/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

NCAAB

NO PLAYS

NBA

7:35pm 501 Memphis Grizzlies OPEN +4.5 NOW +4

10:05pm 508 Sacramento Kings OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

10:35pm 509 Denver Nuggets OPEN +2 NOW +1

YTD: 53-38-1 58%

crockje · 02-02-12, 01:25 PM

Im starting to agree with r19 and a few others I plugged numbers in since we made the change to at least .5 movement on 23rd and with 8 and under spread I got a record of 24-9 or 73% winning percentage. On plays over 8 spread we were 16-19 or 46%. I think we are making it to complicated to track if its a .5, 1, 1.5, etc. Any movement has shown great results under 8 points. I can post sheet if anyone wants to see. Just my two cents

detroitigerz · 02-02-12, 01:35 PM

Wow, serious movement on the denver game (NCAAB) just went over there stats and even giving 1.5 denver seems like a pretttty good play tonight. Also closely watching the UCLA and Detroit (NCAAB) games until 7. Heading to the casino around 3 though so gunna be checking the spreads at the blackjack table!

Automoto · 02-02-12, 01:38 PM

I recall reading somewhere that 7 and 10 points were key numbers in betting spreads for NBA and College hoops. Maybe we should look at <= 8 for NBA and <=11 for NCAAB?

crockje · 02-02-12, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by Automoto

I recall reading somewhere that 7 and 10 points were key numbers in betting spreads for NBA and College hoops. Maybe we should look at <= 8 for NBA and <=11 for NCAAB?

Problem with that is our record from 8.5-10pts is 4-7 even if we opened that up to say 11 points record from 8.5 to 11 is 6-8. Based strictly off sample we have without a doubt the magic number looks to be 8

wiseguy007 · 02-02-12, 01:48 PM

UPDATE: I HAVE ADDED THE NEW SPREAD LIMITS THAT EVERYONE HAS TALKED ABOUT. GREAT WORK EVERYONE

Games to Watch 2/02/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER

NCAAB

NO PLAYS SO FAR

NBA

7:35pm 501 Memphis Grizzlies OPEN +4.5 NOW +4

10:05pm 508 Sacramento Kings OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

10:35pm 509 Denver Nuggets OPEN +2 NOW +1

YTD: 53-38-1 58%

Automoto · 02-02-12, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by crockje

Problem with that is our record from 8.5-10pts is 4-7 even if we opened that up to say 11 points record from 8.5 to 11 is 6-8. Based strictly off sample we have without a doubt the magic number looks to be 8

Were those calculations done on just NCAAB games?

detroitigerz · 02-02-12, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

UPDATE: I HAVE ADDED THE NEW SPREAD LIMITS THAT EVERYONE HAS TALKED ABOUT. GREAT WORK EVERYONE

Games to Watch 2/02/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER

NCAAB

NO PLAYS SO FAR

NBA

7:35pm 501 Memphis Grizzlies OPEN +4.5 NOW +4

10:05pm 508 Sacramento Kings OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

10:35pm 509 Denver Nuggets OPEN +2 NOW +1

YTD: 53-38-1 58%

Umm Detroit and UCLA games are good NCAAB right now...? And for people that aren't strictly sticking to the "rules," that Denver game looks absolutely amazing... I'm thinking about taking some of that even though it's only at 61%.

Definitely my two favorites and the ones I will PROBABLY be playing are UCLA and Denver tonight... and probably Detroit assuming that line holds.

BOL all! off to the casino!

Laissez Faire · 02-02-12, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by detroitigerz

Wow, serious movement on the denver game (NCAAB) just went over there stats and even giving 1.5 denver seems like a pretttty good play tonight. Also closely watching the UCLA and Detroit (NCAAB) games until 7. Heading to the casino around 3 though so gunna be checking the spreads at the blackjack table!

Denver Pioneers have been pretty good ATS this year...i've been betting them since beginning of basketball season on various nights

crockje · 02-02-12, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by Automoto

Were those calculations done on just NCAAB games?

yes if we factor nba under 11pts like wiseguy suggested record for just nba would be 11-3. So I think we have our magic numbers like wiseguy said 8pts for ncaab and 11 for nba

crockje · 02-02-12, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by Automoto

Were those calculations done on just NCAAB games?

Our record for NBA is pretty good but 11 pts and below we are hitting 78% and % drops a bit once we go over 11 pts

Laissez Faire · 02-02-12, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by crockje

yes if we factor nba under 11pts like wiseguy suggested record for just nba would be 11-3. So I think we have our magic numbers like wiseguy said 8pts for ncaab and 11 for nba

I have noticed those figures as well...good observation..thanks for sharing

YouHave2outs · 02-02-12, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by crockje

yes if we factor nba under 11pts like wiseguy suggested record for just nba would be 11-3. So I think we have our magic numbers like wiseguy said 8pts for ncaab and 11 for nba

i think you need a MUCH larger sample size

crockje · 02-02-12, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by YouHave2outs

i think you need a MUCH larger sample size

I couldnt agree with you more so I will continue to track all games with rlm and continue to report but for now I like that we have changed to what is working best with sample size we have

Laissez Faire · 02-02-12, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by R19

Way out west and love watching SEC ball.

Kudos

wiseguy007 · 02-02-12, 04:32 PM

UPDATE:

Games to Watch 2/02/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER

NCAAB

7:30pm 521 Detroit Titans OPEN +3 NOW +2.5

9:00pm 535 South Carolina Gamecocks OPEN +15 NOW +14 (NOT A PLAY UNDER NEW RULES)

9:00pm 537 UCLA Bruins OPEN +3.5 NOW +3

NBA

7:35pm 501 Memphis Grizzlies OPEN +4.5 NOW +4

8:35pm 505 New Orleans Hornets OPEN +10 NOW +9

10:05pm 508 Sacramento Kings OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

10:35pm 509 Denver Nuggets OPEN +2 NOW +1

YTD: 53-38-1 58%

YouHave2outs · 02-02-12, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by crockje

I couldnt agree with you more so I will continue to track all games with rlm and continue to report but for now I like that we have changed to what is working best with sample size we have

agreed, and i am surprised at what a big rlm card there is in the nba. 4/6 games. scary, looks like vegas is looking to clean

Romanov · 02-02-12, 05:19 PM

You guys might be seeing a worse record after a certain >spread because each half point has increasingly less value, so the books move the higher numbers like from 13 to 13.5 more often than from 3 to 3.5. Maybe it does not take as much money to push those higher numbers

garnetandblack · 02-02-12, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by wiseguy007

UPDATE:

Games to Watch 2/02/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER

NCAAB

7:30pm 521 Detroit Titans OPEN +3 NOW +2.5

9:00pm 535 South Carolina Gamecocks OPEN +15 NOW +14 (NOT A PLAY UNDER NEW RULES)

9:00pm 537 UCLA Bruins OPEN +3.5 NOW +3

NBA

7:35pm 501 Memphis Grizzlies OPEN +4.5 NOW +4

8:35pm 505 New Orleans Hornets OPEN +10 NOW +9

10:05pm 508 Sacramento Kings OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

10:35pm 509 Denver Nuggets OPEN +2 NOW +1

YTD: 53-38-1 58%

Is it baseball season yet? I refuse to bet on my school's excuse for a basketball team

garnetandblack · 02-02-12, 05:58 PM

Memphis is back to +4.5 now

venture · 02-02-12, 05:58 PM

What site do you use for this information, 1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.
thanks

garnetandblack · 02-02-12, 06:04 PM

Looks like Oregon St is a play now. Open +3.5 Now +2.5

Pepperdine Open +10 Now +9.5 (NOT A PLAY UNDER NEW RULES) - Back to +10 - NO PLAY

R19 · 02-02-12, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by venture

What site do you use for this information, 1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.
thanks

Free Sports Bet - Recommend reviewing at least the first couple pages of this thread were the RLM System was first outlined. There is a lot to learn by reading the whole thing.

wiseguy007 · 02-02-12, 06:57 PM

UPDATE AS OF 6:56PM

Games to Watch 2/02/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up.

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER

NCAAB

7:30pm 521 Detroit Titans OPEN +3 NOW +2.5

9:00pm 535 South Carolina Gamecocks OPEN +15 NOW +14 (NOT A PLAY UNDER NEW RULES)

9:00pm 537 UCLA Bruins OPEN +3.5 NOW +3

9:00pm 541 Oregon State Beavers OPEN +3.5 NOW +2.5

9:00pm 540 Utah Utes OPEN +10 NOW +9 (NOT A PLAY UNDER NEW RULES)

10:00pm 545 USC Trojans OPEN +7.5 NOW +6.5

10:30pm 563 Pepperdine Waves OPEN +10 NOW +9.5 (NOT A PLAY UNDER NEW RULES)

NBA

8:35pm 505 New Orleans Hornets OPEN +10 NOW +9

10:05pm 508 Sacramento Kings OPEN +4 NOW +3.5

10:35pm 509 Denver Nuggets OPEN +2 NOW +1

10:35pm 512 Golden State Warriors OPEN +5 NOW +4.5

YTD: 53-38-1 58%

Rous · 02-02-12, 06:58 PM

What about utah st. + 8.5 down to + 7.5????

EasyCover · 02-02-12, 07:04 PM

Elon went from +4 to+3, over 3000 and 71% on Charleston-why no play?

garnetandblack · 02-02-12, 07:05 PM

Golden State isn't a play. They opened up at -5.

garnetandblack · 02-02-12, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by EasyCover

Elon went from +4 to+3, over 3000 and 71% on Charleston-why no play?

3000 bets need to be on one side not total.

crockje · 02-02-12, 07:08 PM

Originally posted by EasyCover

Elon went from +4 to+3, over 3000 and 71% on Charleston-why no play?

Elon was opposite it opened at +3 and went to +4 no play

garnetandblack · 02-02-12, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by Rous

What about utah st. + 8.5 down to + 7.5????

not enough action on Nevada yet. Still need around 100 bets to get to 3000