Starting Today... 10 Day Model Try...
I believe that I have a working system or close. I already have one for college football and NFL. College football works the best. Anyway, I will post my picks for next 10 days... if you don't like a pick... and if you have a reason why... I will try to model it. This season I have tracked 1500 games which isn't enough but a start. I will try to post by 11AM each day. My one caveat is if a game goes into OT... I record the scores based on what the scored in regulation for modeling purposes.
Time
AWAY TEAM
PROJ AWAY SCORE
HOME TEAM
PROJ HOME SCORE
TOTAL
VEGAS SPREAD
VEGAS O/U
SPREAD BET
O/U BET
11:30 AM
DARTMOUTH
69
SACRED HEART
75
143
-3.5
139.5
Too Close
Too Close
12:00 PM
C CONN ST
65
FORDHAM
74
139
-10.5
138.5
Too Close
Too Close
2:00 PM
ALCORN ST
66
GEORGE WASHINGTON
91
156
-15.5
159.0
Too Close
Too Close
2:00 PM
NAVY
64
YOUNGSTOWN ST
77
141
-10
140.0
Too Close
Too Close
2:00 PM
QUINNIPIAC
76
LAFAYETTE
68
144
3.5
139.0
Too Close
Too Close
2:00 PM
HOLY CROSS
63
HARVARD
84
147
-16
142.0
Too Close
Too Close
2:00 PM
INCARNATE WORD
59
IL-CHICAGO
80
139
-14.5
146.0
Too Close
Under
3:00 PM
PRESBYTERIAN
64
WAKE FOREST
80
144
-22.5
145.5
Too Close
Too Close
5:00 PM
AMERICAN
64
VIRGINIA TECH
79
143
-18.5
141.0
Too Close
Too Close
6:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS
64
OHIO ST
85
149
-24
155.0
Too Close
Too Close
6:00 PM
NEW HAMPSHIRE
76
RHODE ISLAND
71
147
-5
148.0
Too Close
Too Close
6:00 PM
LEHIGH
71
BOSTON COLLEGE
82
153
-17
149.5
Too Close
Too Close
6:30 PM
GARDNER WEBB
67
AKRON
76
143
-10
139.0
Too Close
Too Close
6:30 PM
JACKSONVILLE
60
PURDUE
89
149
-33
147.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
FLORIDA A&M
58
UCF
89
147
-24.5
136.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
MAINE
71
FLA INTERNATIONAL
74
145
-3.5
137.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
LEMOYNE
68
PENN ST
84
152
-20
153.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
FAIRFIELD
78
FARLEIGH DICKINSON
78
156
2.5
156.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
USC UPSTATE
66
DAVIDSON
75
141
-15
138.5
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
COLGATE
74
IONA
72
145
-1.5
139.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
UNC-ASHEVILLE
65
APPALACHIAN ST
82
147
-9.5
141.0
Home Minus
Too Close
7:00 PM
E KENTUCKY
80
TROY
84
164
-2.5
153.5
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
SAMFORD
88
TEXAS SOUTHERN
68
156
6.5
153.5
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
ARMY
71
TX-SAN ANTONIO
79
151
-6.5
142.5
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
ALABAMA A&M
66
S ALABAMA
81
147
-13
147.5
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
STONEHILL
60
MIAMI
93
153
-29.5
152.5
Too Close
Too Close
8:30 PM
N ALABAMA
70
INDIANA
70
140
-14
147.5
Too Close
Too Close
9:00 PM
LAMAR
71
LSU
76
147
-17
152.5
Too Close
Too Close
1:00 PM
HAMPTON
78
E MICHIGAN
69
147
-3.5
148.0
Too Close
Too Close
2:00 PM
MANHATTAN
70
MONMOUTH
81
151
-8.5
139.5
Too Close
Too Close
2:00 PM
TX-ARLINGTON
66
TEXAS TECH
77
143
-13
142.0
Too Close
Too Close
3:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE ST
70
ARK-LITTLE ROCK
73
144
-2.5
141.0
Too Close
Too Close
3:00 PM
NEVADA
75
TEMPLE
72
147
8.5
147.5
Too Close
Too Close
4:00 PM
N COLORADO
66
AIR FORCE
71
137
-7
137.5
Too Close
Too Close
5:00 PM
NIAGARA
66
SYRACUSE
85
151
-17.5
147.5
Too Close
Too Close
5:00 PM
N CAROLINA A&T
68
COASTAL CAROLINA
90
158
-10
153.0
Home Minus
Too Close
5:30 PM
TCU
85
OLD DOMINION
67
152
14
148.5
Too Close
Too Close
5:30 PM
TCU
85
OLD DOMINION
67
152
14
148.5
Too Close
Too Close
6:00 PM
KENTUCKY
88
LOUISVILLE
68
157
13.5
155.0
Too Close
Too Close
6:00 PM
W MICHIGAN
65
CLEVELAND ST
82
147
-9.5
143.5
Too Close
Too Close
6:30 PM
STONY BROOK
60
MICHIGAN ST
82
142
-22.5
138.0
Too Close
Too Close
6:30 PM
TARLETON ST
58
TENNESSEE
80
138
-22.5
138.5
Too Close
Under
7:00 PM
ST JOSEPHS
78
COLL OF CHARLESTON
73
150
-2.5
152.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
66
ARKANSAS
78
144
-16
151.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
UNC-WILMINGTON
83
MARSHALL
78
161
-1.5
152.5
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
BUFFALO
61
RICHMOND
87
148
-16
141.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
DETROIT
69
C MICHIGAN
76
146
-7.5
138.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
IDAHO ST
67
OREGON ST
67
133
-7
131.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
WM & MARY
73
PEPPERDINE
77
150
-8.5
149.5
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
UTAH TECH
59
COLORADO
85
145
-24
147.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
S DAKOTA ST
74
NORFOLK ST
70
144
4.5
141.5
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
E ILLINOIS
55
IOWA ST
85
140
-31.5
138.0
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
N IOWA
79
N ILLINOIS
75
154
3
155.5
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
TEXAS ST
48
HOUSTON
82
130
-28
126.0
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
BALL ST
66
MINNESOTA
78
144
-12
140.5
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
SE MISSOURI ST
63
ILLINOIS ST
70
133
-14
140.0
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
SIU EDWARDSVL
67
BRADLEY
75
142
-11
134.0
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
IDAHO
73
UC-RIVERSIDE
74
148
-6.5
132.5
Too Close
Too Close
8:30 PM
WICHITA ST
74
KANSAS ST
76
151
-5
146.5
Too Close
Too Close
9:00 PM
STANFORD
72
SAN DIEGO ST
80
151
-9
143.0
Too Close
Too Close
9:00 PM
E WASHINGTON
69
WASHINGTON
84
154
-15
158.0
Too Close
Too Close
9:00 PM
KENT ST
73
OREGON
79
151
-6.5
146.0
Too Close
Over
9:00 PM
GEORGIA TECH
71
MASSACHUSETTS
79
149
-2.5
151.0
Too Close
Too Close
9:30 PM
WYOMING
69
UTEP
72
141
-2
140.0
Too Close
Too Close
10:00 PM
HOFSTRA
78
UNLV
74
151
-4.5
141.5
Too Close
Too Close
10:00 PM
N KENTUCKY
56
ST MARYS-CA
75
131
-16
130.0
Too Close
Too Close
10:00 PM
NEBRASKA-OMAHA
72
CAL POLY-SLO
67
138
1.5
136.0
Too Close
Too Close
10:00 PM
S DAKOTA
74
SAN DIEGO
78
152
-8.5
159.5
Too Close
Too Close
11:00 PM
BOISE ST
64
WASHINGTON ST
74
138
-2
137.5
Home Minus
Too Close
11:30 PM
PORTLAND
67
HAWAII
80
147
-9
149.5
Too Close
Too Close
I post all the games with numbers in case you want to bet the games I didn't pick. At least this will give a statistical input. Again, I will go 10 days without interruption.
Dave
P.S. Any reasonable feedback appreciated. If you really hate a pick tell me why... ty in advance.
4-2... Not a bad start. However, I will be looking at App St. game and try to figure out why I was so far off. They were never in that game. 1-1 in NBA. Not making any changes until New Year.
Time
AWAY TEAM
PROJ AWAY SCORE
HOME TEAM
PROJ HOME SCORE
TOTAL
VEGAS SPREAD
VEGAS O/U
SPREAD BET
O/U BET
AM
DREXEL
72
BRYANT
71
144
4
133.5
Too Close
Too Close
12:00 PM
UMASS-LOWELL
72
BOSTON U
65
137
3.5
138.0
Too Close
Too Close
1:00 PM
VERMONT
78
MIAMI OHIO
66
144
7.5
139.0
Too Close
Too Close
1:00 PM
JAMES MADISON
96
MORGAN ST
68
164
19.5
159.5
Away Minus
Too Close
2:00 PM
ALBANY
69
S FLORIDA
76
145
-10.5
151.0
Too Close
Too Close
2:00 PM
BUCKNELL
65
MERRIMACK
71
136
-7
126.5
Too Close
Too Close
3:00 PM
TEXAS A&M CC
63
TEXAS
79
142
-22.5
147.0
Too Close
Too Close
3:00 PM
N FLORIDA
69
GEORGIA
76
145
-16
150.0
Too Close
Too Close
4:00 PM
NICHOLLS ST
69
TOWSON ST
72
141
-8
132.5
Too Close
Too Close
4:00 PM
GRAMBLING
59
FLORIDA
92
151
-26
147.0
Too Close
Too Close
6:00 PM
QUEENS U - CHAR
66
CLEMSON
86
153
-21
154.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
MISS VALLEY ST
46
BAYLOR
98
144
-38.5
139.5
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
WINTHROP
69
FLORIDA ST
78
147
-7.5
149.5
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
MD-EAST SHORE
56
VA COMMONWEALTH
80
136
-23
136.0
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
CANISIUS
72
HIGH POINT
80
152
-9.5
151.5
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
BINGHAMTON
62
ST BONAVENTURE
77
139
-14.5
142.5
Too Close
Too Close
7:00 PM
STETSON
66
CINCINNATI
86
153
-20
150.0
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
OHIO U
74
AUSTIN PEAY
68
143
4.5
138.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
8:00 PM
CHICAGO ST
56
WISCONSIN
78
134
-23
133.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
8:00 PM
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
60
TEXAS A&M
90
150
-32
151.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
8:00 PM
ALABAMA ST
58
AUBURN
87
146
-30.5
149.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
9:00 PM
BELLARMINE
56
BYU
94
149
-24.5
142.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
2:00 PM
UT-CHATTANOOGA
82
WI-MILWAUKEE
73
155
3
152.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
2:00 PM
GEORGE MASON
78
TULANE
74
151
-4.5
157.5
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
2:00 PM
SIENA
61
BROWN
80
142
-12.5
133.5
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
2:00 PM
CORNELL
82
ROBERT MORRIS
71
154
8
161.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
3:00 PM
DRAKE
79
UAB
69
148
3.5
149.5
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
4:00 PM
MONTANA ST
70
CS-NORTHRIDGE
77
147
-5.5
143.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
6:00 PM
SMU
79
MURRAY ST
63
142
5.5
140.5
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
6:00 PM
ELON
67
S CAROLINA
82
149
-18
147.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
7:00 PM
GEORGETOWN
65
MARQUETTE
79
143
-17
151.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
7:00 PM
S INDIANA
60
S ILLINOIS
76
136
-16.5
134.5
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
8:00 PM
LA-LAFAYETTE
78
RICE
72
150
-4
148.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
8:00 PM
YALE
65
KANSAS
78
144
-15.5
142.5
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
8:00 PM
MARIST
67
NOTRE DAME
62
128
-6
126.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
8:00 PM
FRESNO ST
60
SAN FRANCISCO
79
140
-11.5
132.0
Home Minus
Over
0
0
8:00 PM
NEW MEXICO ST
66
TULSA
73
139
-7
146.5
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
8:30 PM
MIDDLE TENN ST
71
SOUTHERN UTAH
74
145
-2.5
139.5
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
9:00 PM
ILLINOIS
77
MISSOURI
69
146
6.5
150.5
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
9:00 PM
E TENN ST
62
UTAH ST
77
139
-17
142.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
9:00 PM
MARYLAND
60
UCLA
68
128
-3.5
129.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
10:00 PM
COLORADO ST
75
LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT
72
147
5.5
147.0
Too Close
Too Close
0
0
Only three bets tonight. Good Luck. One bet on NBA.
Dave
Day 2 Complete... 6-3 College... 2-1 NBA. I guess the San Fran over barely hit but they missed both FTs with 4 seconds remaining. In addition, Fresno St. went several minutes without scoring a point and it still hit. NBA... Houston crushed Dallas. I thought there were more games today. Only two bets...
Time
AWAY TEAM
PROJ AWAY SCORE
HOME TEAM
PROJ HOME SCORE
TOTAL
VEGAS SPREAD
VEGAS O/U
SPREAD BET
O/U BET
12:00 PM
BUTLER
70
PROVIDENCE
73
143
-6
141.0
Too Close
Too Close
12:00 PM
MISSISSIPPI ST
67
RUTGERS
64
131
3
132.5
Too Close
Too Close
1:00 PM
PENNSYLVANIA
80
RIDER
74
155
2
144.5
Too Close
Too Close
1:00 PM
TOLEDO
72
W VIRGINIA
75
147
-4.5
154.5
Too Close
Too Close
1:00 PM
DETROIT
57
NC STATE
91
147
-24
145.5
Too Close
Too Close
2:00 PM
SOUTHERN MISS
63
OLE MISS
77
140
-10
139.0
Too Close
Too Close
2:00 PM
SETON HALL
69
XAVIER
73
142
-4
147.0
Too Close
Too Close
2:00 PM
TX-ARLINGTON
63
N TEXAS
71
134
-8
131.0
Too Close
Over
3:00 PM
FLA ATLANTIC
74
ARIZONA
85
159
-6.5
163.5
Home Minus
Too Close
4:00 PM
VANDERBILT
63
MEMPHIS
83
146
-16.5
150.5
Too Close
Too Close
4:00 PM
VILLANOVA
79
DEPAUL
63
142
12
135.0
Too Close
Too Close
5:00 PM
DUQUESNE
75
SANTA CLARA
75
150
3.5
152.5
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
ST JOHNS
72
CONNECTICUT
77
149
-11.5
148.0
Too Close
Too Close
8:00 PM
MISSOURI ST
57
ST MARYS-CA
74
131
-14
130.0
Too Close
Too Close
1:00 PM
LONG ISLAND
62
MOUNT ST MARYS
76
138
-14
144.0
Too Close
Too Close
2:00 PM
KENNESAW ST
80
UNC-ASHEVILLE
77
157
-4.5
160.0
Too Close
Too Close
4:00 PM
E KENTUCKY
75
ALABAMA
92
167
-24
166.0
Too Close
Too Close
Day 3 and Day 4 No Games. Currently 6-5. Not great.
Dave
No games again today. I am calling the next day... Day 4 because a 10 day trial should have actual games being played. NBA did well last night 3-1 with the only loss being a .5 loss.
Good Luck
Dave
Finally some college basketball... I shrunk down the list to just games that the system says to bet to make it easier to read. Only one bet tonight.
Time
AWAY TEAM
PROJ AWAY SCORE
HOME TEAM
PROJ HOME SCORE
TOTAL
VEGAS SPREAD
VEGAS O/U
SPREAD BET
O/U BET
9:00 PM
MONTANA
67
WEBER ST
71
138
-4.5
134.5
Too Close
Over
12:00 AM
0
#N/A
0
#N/A
###
0
0.0
#N/A
#N/A
12:00 AM
0
#N/A
0
#N/A
###
0
0.0
#N/A
#N/A
Well... nailed that game. They posted 150+. So 7-5 right now on day 5 or 6. Will be updating the system after the New Year... with new algorithms. Again, all algorithms are back tested to make sure they work over past data. Then, I test them moving forward. Today's picks. Seems like it isn't picking enough games. I will work on it next week.
Dave
Time
AWAY TEAM
PROJ AWAY SCORE
HOME TEAM
PROJ HOME SCORE
TOTAL
VEGAS SPREAD
VEGAS O/U
SPREAD BET
O/U BET
2:00 PM
RIDER
66
PENN ST
79
145
-14
145.5
Too Close
Under
8:00 PM
UNC-GREENSBORO
70
TEXAS
79
148
-15
143.0
Too Close
Over
8:00 PM
KENT ST
62
ST MARYS-CA
76
139
-11.5
134.5
Too Close
Over
Got Crushed... last night... 0-3. It wasn't just that I lost... all the bets weren't close to being correct. When your modeling... as stupid as this is to say... having horrible nights isn't bad. It allows you to fine tune in order to find out what you missed. Regardless, 7-8 with current iteration. Haven't really upgraded this model yet... I will next week...
Time
AWAY TEAM
PROJ AWAY SCORE
HOME TEAM
PROJ HOME SCORE
TOTAL
VEGAS SPREAD
VEGAS O/U
SPREAD BET
O/U BET
1:30 PM
DAVIDSON
70
OHIO U
77
147
1
143.0
Home Plus
Too Close
4:00 PM
MONTANA ST
64
WEBER ST
76
140
-11.5
133.0
Too Close
Over
7:00 PM
W VIRGINIA
61
OHIO ST
79
140
-10
146.0
Home Minus
Too Close
7:00 PM
PENNSYLVANIA
54
HOUSTON
85
139
-24.5
132.0
Too Close
Over
Dave