1. #1
    usma1992
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    Starting Today... 10 Day Model Try...

    I believe that I have a working system or close. I already have one for college football and NFL. College football works the best. Anyway, I will post my picks for next 10 days... if you don't like a pick... and if you have a reason why... I will try to model it. This season I have tracked 1500 games which isn't enough but a start. I will try to post by 11AM each day. My one caveat is if a game goes into OT... I record the scores based on what the scored in regulation for modeling purposes.

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    11:30 AM DARTMOUTH 69 SACRED HEART 75 143 -3.5 139.5 Too Close Too Close
    12:00 PM C CONN ST 65 FORDHAM 74 139 -10.5 138.5 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM ALCORN ST 66 GEORGE WASHINGTON 91 156 -15.5 159.0 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM NAVY 64 YOUNGSTOWN ST 77 141 -10 140.0 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM QUINNIPIAC 76 LAFAYETTE 68 144 3.5 139.0 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM HOLY CROSS 63 HARVARD 84 147 -16 142.0 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM INCARNATE WORD 59 IL-CHICAGO 80 139 -14.5 146.0 Too Close Under
    3:00 PM PRESBYTERIAN 64 WAKE FOREST 80 144 -22.5 145.5 Too Close Too Close
    5:00 PM AMERICAN 64 VIRGINIA TECH 79 143 -18.5 141.0 Too Close Too Close
    6:00 PM NEW ORLEANS 64 OHIO ST 85 149 -24 155.0 Too Close Too Close
    6:00 PM NEW HAMPSHIRE 76 RHODE ISLAND 71 147 -5 148.0 Too Close Too Close
    6:00 PM LEHIGH 71 BOSTON COLLEGE 82 153 -17 149.5 Too Close Too Close
    6:30 PM GARDNER WEBB 67 AKRON 76 143 -10 139.0 Too Close Too Close
    6:30 PM JACKSONVILLE 60 PURDUE 89 149 -33 147.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM FLORIDA A&M 58 UCF 89 147 -24.5 136.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM MAINE 71 FLA INTERNATIONAL 74 145 -3.5 137.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM LEMOYNE 68 PENN ST 84 152 -20 153.0 Too Close Too Close

  2. #2
    usma1992
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    7:00 PM FAIRFIELD 78 FARLEIGH DICKINSON 78 156 2.5 156.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM USC UPSTATE 66 DAVIDSON 75 141 -15 138.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM COLGATE 74 IONA 72 145 -1.5 139.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM UNC-ASHEVILLE 65 APPALACHIAN ST 82 147 -9.5 141.0 Home Minus Too Close
    7:00 PM E KENTUCKY 80 TROY 84 164 -2.5 153.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM SAMFORD 88 TEXAS SOUTHERN 68 156 6.5 153.5 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM ARMY 71 TX-SAN ANTONIO 79 151 -6.5 142.5 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM ALABAMA A&M 66 S ALABAMA 81 147 -13 147.5 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM STONEHILL 60 MIAMI 93 153 -29.5 152.5 Too Close Too Close
    8:30 PM N ALABAMA 70 INDIANA 70 140 -14 147.5 Too Close Too Close
    9:00 PM LAMAR 71 LSU 76 147 -17 152.5 Too Close Too Close
    1:00 PM HAMPTON 78 E MICHIGAN 69 147 -3.5 148.0 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM MANHATTAN 70 MONMOUTH 81 151 -8.5 139.5 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM TX-ARLINGTON 66 TEXAS TECH 77 143 -13 142.0 Too Close Too Close
    3:00 PM JACKSONVILLE ST 70 ARK-LITTLE ROCK 73 144 -2.5 141.0 Too Close Too Close
    3:00 PM NEVADA 75 TEMPLE 72 147 8.5 147.5 Too Close Too Close
    4:00 PM N COLORADO 66 AIR FORCE 71 137 -7 137.5 Too Close Too Close
    5:00 PM NIAGARA 66 SYRACUSE 85 151 -17.5 147.5 Too Close Too Close
    5:00 PM N CAROLINA A&T 68 COASTAL CAROLINA 90 158 -10 153.0 Home Minus Too Close
    5:30 PM TCU 85 OLD DOMINION 67 152 14 148.5 Too Close Too Close

  3. #3
    usma1992
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    5:30 PM TCU 85 OLD DOMINION 67 152 14 148.5 Too Close Too Close
    6:00 PM KENTUCKY 88 LOUISVILLE 68 157 13.5 155.0 Too Close Too Close
    6:00 PM W MICHIGAN 65 CLEVELAND ST 82 147 -9.5 143.5 Too Close Too Close
    6:30 PM STONY BROOK 60 MICHIGAN ST 82 142 -22.5 138.0 Too Close Too Close
    6:30 PM TARLETON ST 58 TENNESSEE 80 138 -22.5 138.5 Too Close Under
    7:00 PM ST JOSEPHS 78 COLL OF CHARLESTON 73 150 -2.5 152.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM ABILENE CHRISTIAN 66 ARKANSAS 78 144 -16 151.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM UNC-WILMINGTON 83 MARSHALL 78 161 -1.5 152.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM BUFFALO 61 RICHMOND 87 148 -16 141.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM DETROIT 69 C MICHIGAN 76 146 -7.5 138.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM IDAHO ST 67 OREGON ST 67 133 -7 131.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM WM & MARY 73 PEPPERDINE 77 150 -8.5 149.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM UTAH TECH 59 COLORADO 85 145 -24 147.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM S DAKOTA ST 74 NORFOLK ST 70 144 4.5 141.5 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM E ILLINOIS 55 IOWA ST 85 140 -31.5 138.0 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM N IOWA 79 N ILLINOIS 75 154 3 155.5 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM TEXAS ST 48 HOUSTON 82 130 -28 126.0 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM BALL ST 66 MINNESOTA 78 144 -12 140.5 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM SE MISSOURI ST 63 ILLINOIS ST 70 133 -14 140.0 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM SIU EDWARDSVL 67 BRADLEY 75 142 -11 134.0 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM IDAHO 73 UC-RIVERSIDE 74 148 -6.5 132.5 Too Close Too Close

  4. #4
    usma1992
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    8:30 PM WICHITA ST 74 KANSAS ST 76 151 -5 146.5 Too Close Too Close
    9:00 PM STANFORD 72 SAN DIEGO ST 80 151 -9 143.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:00 PM E WASHINGTON 69 WASHINGTON 84 154 -15 158.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:00 PM KENT ST 73 OREGON 79 151 -6.5 146.0 Too Close Over
    9:00 PM GEORGIA TECH 71 MASSACHUSETTS 79 149 -2.5 151.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:30 PM WYOMING 69 UTEP 72 141 -2 140.0 Too Close Too Close
    10:00 PM HOFSTRA 78 UNLV 74 151 -4.5 141.5 Too Close Too Close
    10:00 PM N KENTUCKY 56 ST MARYS-CA 75 131 -16 130.0 Too Close Too Close
    10:00 PM NEBRASKA-OMAHA 72 CAL POLY-SLO 67 138 1.5 136.0 Too Close Too Close
    10:00 PM S DAKOTA 74 SAN DIEGO 78 152 -8.5 159.5 Too Close Too Close
    11:00 PM BOISE ST 64 WASHINGTON ST 74 138 -2 137.5 Home Minus Too Close
    11:30 PM PORTLAND 67 HAWAII 80 147 -9 149.5 Too Close Too Close

  5. #5
    usma1992
    usma1992's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    I post all the games with numbers in case you want to bet the games I didn't pick. At least this will give a statistical input. Again, I will go 10 days without interruption.

    Dave

    P.S. Any reasonable feedback appreciated. If you really hate a pick tell me why... ty in advance.

  6. #6
    usma1992
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    4-2... Not a bad start. However, I will be looking at App St. game and try to figure out why I was so far off. They were never in that game. 1-1 in NBA. Not making any changes until New Year.

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    AM DREXEL 72 BRYANT 71 144 4 133.5 Too Close Too Close
    12:00 PM UMASS-LOWELL 72 BOSTON U 65 137 3.5 138.0 Too Close Too Close
    1:00 PM VERMONT 78 MIAMI OHIO 66 144 7.5 139.0 Too Close Too Close
    1:00 PM JAMES MADISON 96 MORGAN ST 68 164 19.5 159.5 Away Minus Too Close
    2:00 PM ALBANY 69 S FLORIDA 76 145 -10.5 151.0 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM BUCKNELL 65 MERRIMACK 71 136 -7 126.5 Too Close Too Close
    3:00 PM TEXAS A&M CC 63 TEXAS 79 142 -22.5 147.0 Too Close Too Close
    3:00 PM N FLORIDA 69 GEORGIA 76 145 -16 150.0 Too Close Too Close
    4:00 PM NICHOLLS ST 69 TOWSON ST 72 141 -8 132.5 Too Close Too Close
    4:00 PM GRAMBLING 59 FLORIDA 92 151 -26 147.0 Too Close Too Close
    6:00 PM QUEENS U - CHAR 66 CLEMSON 86 153 -21 154.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM MISS VALLEY ST 46 BAYLOR 98 144 -38.5 139.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM WINTHROP 69 FLORIDA ST 78 147 -7.5 149.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM MD-EAST SHORE 56 VA COMMONWEALTH 80 136 -23 136.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM CANISIUS 72 HIGH POINT 80 152 -9.5 151.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM BINGHAMTON 62 ST BONAVENTURE 77 139 -14.5 142.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM STETSON 66 CINCINNATI 86 153 -20 150.0 Too Close Too Close

  7. #7
    usma1992
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    8:00 PM OHIO U 74 AUSTIN PEAY 68 143 4.5 138.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    8:00 PM CHICAGO ST 56 WISCONSIN 78 134 -23 133.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    8:00 PM HOUSTON CHRISTIAN 60 TEXAS A&M 90 150 -32 151.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    8:00 PM ALABAMA ST 58 AUBURN 87 146 -30.5 149.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    9:00 PM BELLARMINE 56 BYU 94 149 -24.5 142.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    2:00 PM UT-CHATTANOOGA 82 WI-MILWAUKEE 73 155 3 152.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    2:00 PM GEORGE MASON 78 TULANE 74 151 -4.5 157.5 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    2:00 PM SIENA 61 BROWN 80 142 -12.5 133.5 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    2:00 PM CORNELL 82 ROBERT MORRIS 71 154 8 161.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    3:00 PM DRAKE 79 UAB 69 148 3.5 149.5 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    4:00 PM MONTANA ST 70 CS-NORTHRIDGE 77 147 -5.5 143.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    6:00 PM SMU 79 MURRAY ST 63 142 5.5 140.5 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    6:00 PM ELON 67 S CAROLINA 82 149 -18 147.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    7:00 PM GEORGETOWN 65 MARQUETTE 79 143 -17 151.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    7:00 PM S INDIANA 60 S ILLINOIS 76 136 -16.5 134.5 Too Close Too Close 0 0

  8. #8
    usma1992
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    8:00 PM LA-LAFAYETTE 78 RICE 72 150 -4 148.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    8:00 PM YALE 65 KANSAS 78 144 -15.5 142.5 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    8:00 PM MARIST 67 NOTRE DAME 62 128 -6 126.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    8:00 PM FRESNO ST 60 SAN FRANCISCO 79 140 -11.5 132.0 Home Minus Over 0 0
    8:00 PM NEW MEXICO ST 66 TULSA 73 139 -7 146.5 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    8:30 PM MIDDLE TENN ST 71 SOUTHERN UTAH 74 145 -2.5 139.5 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    9:00 PM ILLINOIS 77 MISSOURI 69 146 6.5 150.5 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    9:00 PM E TENN ST 62 UTAH ST 77 139 -17 142.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    9:00 PM MARYLAND 60 UCLA 68 128 -3.5 129.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0
    10:00 PM COLORADO ST 75 LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 72 147 5.5 147.0 Too Close Too Close 0 0

  9. #9
    usma1992
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    Only three bets tonight. Good Luck. One bet on NBA.

    Dave

  10. #10
    usma1992
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    Day 2 Complete... 6-3 College... 2-1 NBA. I guess the San Fran over barely hit but they missed both FTs with 4 seconds remaining. In addition, Fresno St. went several minutes without scoring a point and it still hit. NBA... Houston crushed Dallas. I thought there were more games today. Only two bets...

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    12:00 PM BUTLER 70 PROVIDENCE 73 143 -6 141.0 Too Close Too Close
    12:00 PM MISSISSIPPI ST 67 RUTGERS 64 131 3 132.5 Too Close Too Close
    1:00 PM PENNSYLVANIA 80 RIDER 74 155 2 144.5 Too Close Too Close
    1:00 PM TOLEDO 72 W VIRGINIA 75 147 -4.5 154.5 Too Close Too Close
    1:00 PM DETROIT 57 NC STATE 91 147 -24 145.5 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM SOUTHERN MISS 63 OLE MISS 77 140 -10 139.0 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM SETON HALL 69 XAVIER 73 142 -4 147.0 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM TX-ARLINGTON 63 N TEXAS 71 134 -8 131.0 Too Close Over
    3:00 PM FLA ATLANTIC 74 ARIZONA 85 159 -6.5 163.5 Home Minus Too Close
    4:00 PM VANDERBILT 63 MEMPHIS 83 146 -16.5 150.5 Too Close Too Close
    4:00 PM VILLANOVA 79 DEPAUL 63 142 12 135.0 Too Close Too Close
    5:00 PM DUQUESNE 75 SANTA CLARA 75 150 3.5 152.5 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM ST JOHNS 72 CONNECTICUT 77 149 -11.5 148.0 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM MISSOURI ST 57 ST MARYS-CA 74 131 -14 130.0 Too Close Too Close
    1:00 PM LONG ISLAND 62 MOUNT ST MARYS 76 138 -14 144.0 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM KENNESAW ST 80 UNC-ASHEVILLE 77 157 -4.5 160.0 Too Close Too Close
    4:00 PM E KENTUCKY 75 ALABAMA 92 167 -24 166.0 Too Close Too Close

  11. #11
    usma1992
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    Day 3 and Day 4 No Games. Currently 6-5. Not great.

    Dave

  12. #12
    usma1992
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    No games again today. I am calling the next day... Day 4 because a 10 day trial should have actual games being played. NBA did well last night 3-1 with the only loss being a .5 loss.

    Good Luck
    Dave

  13. #13
    usma1992
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    Finally some college basketball... I shrunk down the list to just games that the system says to bet to make it easier to read. Only one bet tonight.

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    9:00 PM MONTANA 67 WEBER ST 71 138 -4.5 134.5 Too Close Over
    12:00 AM 0 #N/A 0 #N/A ### 0 0.0 #N/A #N/A
    12:00 AM 0 #N/A 0 #N/A ### 0 0.0 #N/A #N/A

  14. #14
    usma1992
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    Well... nailed that game. They posted 150+. So 7-5 right now on day 5 or 6. Will be updating the system after the New Year... with new algorithms. Again, all algorithms are back tested to make sure they work over past data. Then, I test them moving forward. Today's picks. Seems like it isn't picking enough games. I will work on it next week.

    Dave

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    2:00 PM RIDER 66 PENN ST 79 145 -14 145.5 Too Close Under
    8:00 PM UNC-GREENSBORO 70 TEXAS 79 148 -15 143.0 Too Close Over
    8:00 PM KENT ST 62 ST MARYS-CA 76 139 -11.5 134.5 Too Close Over

  15. #15
    usma1992
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    Got Crushed... last night... 0-3. It wasn't just that I lost... all the bets weren't close to being correct. When your modeling... as stupid as this is to say... having horrible nights isn't bad. It allows you to fine tune in order to find out what you missed. Regardless, 7-8 with current iteration. Haven't really upgraded this model yet... I will next week...

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    1:30 PM DAVIDSON 70 OHIO U 77 147 1 143.0 Home Plus Too Close
    4:00 PM MONTANA ST 64 WEBER ST 76 140 -11.5 133.0 Too Close Over
    7:00 PM W VIRGINIA 61 OHIO ST 79 140 -10 146.0 Home Minus Too Close
    7:00 PM PENNSYLVANIA 54 HOUSTON 85 139 -24.5 132.0 Too Close Over

    Dave

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