Spent two days upgrading and back testing model... Starting new 10 day trial...

[Sund]

What parameters do you use to make it qualified bet ?

[kilrathi]

Won both ML last night.... easy 6% of money bet... not bad... better than Wall Street. 39-20 still... Bets tonight...

could you please explain your betting strategy on those bets again? What does "6% of money bet" mean? I thought you would bet on singles with 3%? but what about parley ml bets?

[usma1992]

No problem ... appreciate you following... hopefully you are making some money.

Dave

[acehole]

thanks for sharing

[prolexus]

[usma1992]

Anybody still out there.... I get emails from a few of you. My numbers continue to come in high. Currently, 206-154 backtested or 74.76%. Predicted 39-20 66% and that doesn't include ML Parlays.

I am starting to believe... any but else believing. Have you seen success like this before?

Dave

[usma1992]

Won both ML last night.... easy 6% of money bet... not bad... better than Wall Street. 39-20 still... Bets tonight...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	AKRON	81	E MICHIGAN	65		145	10.5	136.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
7:00 PM	BUFFALO	64	OHIO U	85		149	-14.5	149.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
9:00 PM	SETON HALL	82	DEPAUL	65		146	10	138.0		Away Minus	Too Close
9:00 PM	LOUISVILLE	65	CLEMSON	85		150	-16	150.0		Parlay ML	Too Close

[usma1992]

Chuck... what is a fair payout... when doing ML parlays. 5-7% on your money. At what price should I not take the ML.

Dave

[usma1992]

Won all three bets last night... 39-20... I am only including the spread wins... I feel like I am printing money recently. Only two bets tonight. Lost NBA game...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:00 PM	NORTHWESTERN ST	58	MCNEESE ST	86		144	-20	145.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
8:30 PM	MISS VALLEY ST	54	SOUTHERN U	84		138	-19	134.5		Parlay ML	Too Close

[usma1992]

37-20 on Spread, O/U bets... right at 65%.

13-1 Yesterday... including ML of course... but still amazing. I am almost going on 30 days with these algorithms. Backtested 206-154. Feeling very comfortable. NBA generated a bet... too ... today.

Picks today...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	WRIGHT ST	91	IUPUI	65		156	15.5	158.0		Parlay ML	Too Close
1:30 PM	N KENTUCKY	67	YOUNGSTOWN ST	81		148	-6.5	146.0		Home Minus	Too Close
10:00 PM	NEVADA	66	NEW MEXICO	80		146	-8	154.0		Home Minus	Too Close

[usma1992]

We definitely agree on dog choice... I've never owned a black lab but my brother did.

Looks like 13 -1... and yes I know... most are ML...

Still impressive.

Dave
The Teach
OOGDA

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I bet... he was... what type... yippee Dog... or big one...

Hoping for a solid betting weekend... off to a solid start.

Dave

Black Lab. IMHO, black-lab is the best breed.

GL on your plays.

[usma1992]

I bet... he was... what type... yippee Dog... or big one...

Hoping for a solid betting weekend... off to a solid start.

Dave

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky the Goat... Your opinions are definitely.. valid ... I need to look into the spread aspect... On a side note... are you allowed to use THE GOAT ... are you predetermining that you are the best ever... I think someone or actually the many someones only get to give you that title. Just teasing you but ... being honest too. Did you see I went 19-1 yesterday? Most ML but still.

Dave
The Teach

It's a reference to my dog. And HE was the best ever.

[usma1992]

Split last night... IONA was a blowout... for most of the game... Seattle won but didn't cover the 6.5 34-19 so far... Lots of bets today...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	KANSAS ST	52	HOUSTON	78		131	-15	128.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
12:00 PM	VIRGINIA	78	LOUISVILLE	64		141	8	128.5		Away Minus	Too Close
1:00 PM	DETROIT	60	WI-GREEN BAY	77		136	-11.5	138.0		Parlay ML	Too Close
2:00 PM	PENNSYLVANIA	76	COLUMBIA	79		155	1.5	146.0		Too Close	Over
2:00 PM	TEXAS	68	BYU	82		150	-7	150.5		Home Minus	Too Close
2:00 PM	N CAROLINA A&T	59	DREXEL	83		142	-17.5	142.0		Parlay ML	Too Close
3:30 PM	W ILLINOIS	61	MOREHEAD ST	76		137	-10.5	131.0		Parlay ML	Too Close
4:30 PM	LINDENWOOD	66	TENN-MARTIN	84		151	-12.00	154.0		Parlay ML	Too Close
6:00 PM	TENNESSEE	82	VANDERBILT	59		141	13.50	141.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
7:00 PM	DEPAUL	59	CREIGHTON	88		146	-24.00	144.0		Parlay ML	Too Close
8:00 PM	SAN FRANCISCO	90	PORTLAND	64		154	13.50	152.0		Parlay ML	Too Close
10:00 PM	GONZAGA	92	PACIFIC	58		150	25.50	154.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
4:00 PM	KENNESAW ST	87	C ARKANSAS	73		160	8.50	167.0		Away Minus	Too Close
4:00 PM	COPPIN ST	54	NORFOLK ST	76		131	-15.00	129.0		Parlay ML	Too Close

[usma1992]

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	IONA	81	SIENA	62		144	8.5	140.0		Away Minus	Too Close
9:00 PM	UTAH VALLEY ST	60	SEATTLE	73		133	-6.5	140.0		Home Minus	Too Close

[usma1992]

I will look into the EuroLeague... I need to be able to download the stats I need in order to conduct any real analysis.

My filters for games are pretty tight so even though the projected points say go one direction... I have back tested many games and I applied those filters. Not sure why it didn't take Youngstown St. I will look into it. I had them winning by 29... they won by 28 lol.

I do not take Kenpom or Sagarin ratings into account.

Sucked Arizona got beat... only losing bet.

Dave

[Enkhbat]

Do you take KenPom and Sagarin ratings into consideration?

[Sund]

Wouldn’t Youngstown be an away - minus ?

[prolexus]

Thank you.

Food for thought, not sure of the effort involved, but may your model be able to analyze the EuroLeague Basketball. They typically play twice a week. Currently in Round 23, playing today and tomorrow, and then no games till Tuesday.

warmest regards.

[usma1992]

Picks tonight... only Parlay ML... Can't even get odds on St. Mary CA. Enjoy Dave.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
6:30 PM	GA SOUTHERN	61	APPALACHIAN ST	83		144	-16	142.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
7:00 PM	N CAROLINA A&T	65	DELAWARE	83		148	-13	151.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
7:00 PM	YOUNGSTOWN ST	90	IUPUI	61		151	14	146.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
8:00 PM	DETROIT	68	WI-MILWAUKEE	85		153	-12	155.0		Parlay ML	Too Close
11:00 PM	PACIFIC	51	ST MARYS-CA	84		135	-27	134.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
11:00 PM	ARIZONA	88	OREGON ST	64		152	19	149.0		Parlay ML	Too Close

[usma1992]

Anyone still following... so I am 30-18 on recent algorithms ... that are 100% back tested. Last night 3-0... so now 33-18. All the bets won depending on what line you got in on.

So I ran a test this morning to see how sensitive the plays were. Specifically, I ran the test on Bradley game and Florida Atlantic game because both of those were very close to spread and almost losers.

I changed Bradley from -7.5 to -8... still a bet.... change to -8.5 still a bet... at -9 it was no longer a bet. If you got in at-8.5 you lost... but I watched the game they should have easily covered and a guy missed a free throw with 22 seconds to go. Bradley won by 8.

I changed Florida Atlantic from +12 to +13 and it was no longer a bet. FA won by 13.

So what I am realizing is that my predictions are so precise that any significant or insignificant movement in the line changes the scenario.

To me that is unbelievable.

Anybody out there... lol.

Won every bet last night. Only 5 but so what. By the way Marquette won the ML but didn't cover the spread as I predicted.

Dave

[usma1992]

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	MURRAY ST	65	BRADLEY	78		144	-7.5	140.0		Home Minus	Too Close
7:00 PM	JAMES MADISON	86	OLD DOMINION	70		156	8	155.0		Away Minus	Too Close
8:00 PM	FLA ATLANTIC	87	RICE	70		157	12	153.0		Parlay ML and A-	Too Close
9:00 PM	MARQUETTE	88	DEPAUL	61		149	18	147.5		Parlay ML	Too Close

[usma1992]

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:00 PM	DUKE	86	LOUISVILLE	67		152	14	150.0		Parlay ML	Too Close

Only One bet tonight.

[usma1992]

I still can't get over going 19-1 on Saturday even with ML bets.

Dave

[usma1992]

What I find interesting about the ML bets is that it took many... and they all won. The big upset of the day was Duke Pitt so.... I reexamined that bet to try and figure out why the system did not pick it. It had Duke winning by only 11... so it got tossed out.

I need to the mathematical calculations on what price is worth placing bets. The other day I took UNC and Arizona ML... both were -20 but it still yielded 7%. That's better than Wall Street.

Every college game tonight came in too Close on both sides. No bets tonight on College. 30-18.

Dave
The Teach

[usma1992]

Crushed it yesterday... 14-0.. ML... 5-1 Spread and Overs... I did have a computer glitch... The site I used changed names... so I had Texas A&M CC... the same as Texas A&M Commerce... a computer modeling... continual problem. Both won... but I can only take credit for one of them.

30-17 so far.. I guess...

The Teach

AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
SIENA	58	MARIST	73		132	-6.5	132.0		Home Minus	Too Close

[usma1992]

Chucky the Goat... Your opinions are definitely.. valid ... I need to look into the spread aspect... On a side note... are you allowed to use THE GOAT ... are you predetermining that you are the best ever... I think someone or actually the many someones only get to give you that title. Just teasing you but ... being honest too. Did you see I went 19-1 yesterday? Most ML but still.

Dave
The Teach

[usma1992]

Prolexus, Obviously, you are European which is not a bad thing. Very few say cheers in the US. To answer you question, my model goes beyond just the predicted score. Based on past data.... I look where my model is strong and where it was weak... and compare it to vegas and where they were strong or weak.

I create additional filters that eliminate games.

Btw... I went 14-0 ML.. and 5-1 on rest of the games in college basketball..19-1 yesterday... and yes the picks are posted. Even though Texas A&M Commerce covered.... I'm taking zero correct for that win..

Dave
The Teach

[prolexus]

Thank you for sharing.

On today's posted chart, the one (1) UNDER appears to be the closest margin between the Vegas O/U and Predicted Total. Yet, all the others are listed as "too close". May you be able to provide a little more explanation on how the Total Plays are predicted as one may expect to look for a larger "delta" between the prediction and posted Vegas Line.

cheers.

[usma1992]

My suggestion on betting is to Parlay ML all together in a round robin... but only the upper two levels. If there are 9 games... bet 9 and 8 round robins. The single bets... bet them as usual but only 3% of your bankroll.

Dave
The Teach

[usma1992]

My bet of the day is Youngstown Minus... forget that... I want the Away+ bets... too.

The Teach

[usma1992]

Lots of ML Parlays... I haven't figured out how to work them yet...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:00 PM	LOUISVILLE	65	WAKE FOREST	84		148	-14.5	151.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
2:00 PM	YALE	81	DARTMOUTH	59		140	12.5	133.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
2:00 PM	UCF	53	HOUSTON	77		130	-16.5	128.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
3:30 PM	VANDERBILT	60	MISSISSIPPI ST	77		137	-13	138.0		Parlay ML	Under
4:00 PM	UCLA	61	ARIZONA	87		148	-17.5	143.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
4:00 PM	E MICHIGAN	65	OHIO U	82		147	-12.5	145.0		Parlay ML	Too Close
4:00 PM	NEW MEXICO	80	AIR FORCE	62		142	10.5	143.0		Parlay ML	Too Close
4:00 PM	DEPAUL	64	BUTLER	87		151	-16	148.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
4:00 PM	YOUNGSTOWN ST	88	DETROIT	63		151	10.00	146.0		Away Minus	Too Close
4:00 PM	FRESNO ST	63	UTAH ST	82		145	-14.00	143.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
6:00 PM	BYU	79	TEXAS TECH	70		149	-2.00	145.0		Away Plus	Too Close
6:00 PM	MARSHALL	67	JAMES MADISON	88		156	-11.50	160.0		Parlay ML and H-	Too Close
6:00 PM	MERCER	68	SAMFORD	88		156	-13.50	154.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
6:00 PM	GEORGIA	69	KENTUCKY	87		156	-14.00	162.5		Parlay ML	Too Close
7:00 PM	PORTLAND	68	SANTA CLARA	83		151	-11.00	153.0		Parlay ML	Too Close
7:00 PM	SAM HOUSTON ST	62	LIBERTY	79		141	-9.50	138.0		Home Minus	Too Close
4:30 PM	NICHOLLS ST	64	TEXAS A&M CC	78		142	-6.00	146.0		Home Minus	Too Close
4:30 PM	TEXAS A&M CC	73	SE LOUISIANA	66		139	-5.00	130.5		Away Plus	Too Close
6:00 PM	MCNEESE ST	84	INCARNATE WORD	64		148	12.50	145.5		Parlay ML	Too Close

[kilrathi]

I like the idea of your system but I am too afraid of following those ML parlay picks.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Looks like you're doing well. Not really a critique but I'll make one point:

*You're including these Heavy M/L favs in parlays.

Consider how wide those straddles are. In my opinion, the Moneyline Fav/Dog on the hi-spread games is un-bettable. They've pushed those straddles to the moon and made those play less attractive.