HG's College Hoops Thread

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-31-17, 03:13 PM

9:00 Georgetown/DePaul o141.5 -103
I get 72+ possessions here. Georgetown's defense concerns me some, but DePaul scores better at home and the Hoyas' defense dips some on the road. I'm also counting on FTs to help raise the offensive efficiency and possession numbers.

**cooperman** · 01-31-17, 04:48 PM

Snuck one in there on me. Good luck brother. See you at the window

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-31-17, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by cooperman

Snuck one in there on me. Good luck brother. See you at the window

Thanks coop. Only sneaky because I've had a sneaky busy day. Probably more of the same through he weekend for me, unfortunately.

BOL tonight!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-31-17, 11:38 PM

1-0 night that went pretty well according to plan.

Thread: 68-58 (+5.27u)
Totals only: 66-52

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-01-17, 12:26 PM

Kinda jammed up again today. Gonna do what I can...

7:00 Georgia Tech/Clemson o132.5 -110
I get about 70 possessions. These two played a 69 possession game to 138 points a couple of weeks ago. Kenpom has 66 possessions.

7:00 UCF/Houston u130 -108
I get a 64/65 possession game. The defenses are very good. I'm a little concerned that they played a game to 147 points a couple of weeks back, but he UCF shooting was unusually good in that game. Looking for Houston to play better defense tonight.

**Flea Hotel** · 02-01-17, 12:51 PM

HG, I assume you're using Pinnacle. I got UCF/Houston u130.5 -108.

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Kinda jammed up again today. Gonna do what I can...

7:00 Georgia Tech/Clemson o132.5 -110
I get about 70 possessions. These two played a 69 possession game to 138 points a couple of weeks ago. Kenpom has 66 possessions.

7:00 UCF/Houston u130 -108
I get a 64/65 possession game. The defenses are very good. I'm a little concerned that they played a game to 147 points a couple of weeks back, but he UCF shooting was unusually good in that game. Looking for Houston to play better defense tonight.

**doubledime** · 02-01-17, 03:39 PM

A rare under for you. I like it. Good luck

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-01-17, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by Flea Hotel

HG, I assume you're using Pinnacle. I got UCF/Houston u130.5 -108.

Lines are from 5Dimes.

Originally posted by doubledime

A rare under for you. I like it. Good luck

I don't like unders because I find them to be really stressful. I also think I'm better at identifying factors that lead to higher scoring. That said, I'm not afraid to play an under now and again.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-01-17, 05:32 PM

11:00 USC/Washington o158 -107
I get 75+ possessions, but this could go higher based on complementary styles. Hoping to see an open court game in this one. Last year they played to 172 and 186.

**cooperman** · 02-01-17, 07:46 PM

Take em down tonight HG

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-02-17, 08:44 AM

1-2 night. UCF forgot to pack its defense for the under that lost, and despite a terrible first half, we had a chance to get the USC/UW over late. However, UW missed 6 straight threes in the final minute of the game, and the teams combined to miss 3 FTs (1 was the front end of a 1 and 1) in the last 20 seconds so the play lost by 2 points.

Thread: 69-60 (+4.12u)
Totals only: 67-54

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-02-17, 04:45 PM

10:00 Portland St/Idaho o145.5 -110
No time to write, but I think this game gets to 73+ possessions.

**doubledime** · 02-02-17, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

10:00 Portland St/Idaho o145.5 -110
No time to write, but I think this game gets to 73+ possessions.

Sure, trying to keep us Midwest guys up late

BOL tonight

**cooperman** · 02-02-17, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by doubledime

Sure, trying to keep us Midwest guys up late

BOL tonight

That is always my 1st concern. Is there a way I can keep those east coast guys up? Hawaii games anyone? Crash the books brother

**doubledime** · 02-02-17, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by cooperman

That is always my 1st concern. Is there a way I can keep those east coast guys up? Hawaii games anyone? Crash the books brother

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-02-17, 11:26 PM

Thanks for stopping by DD and coop. I've been busier than I would like this week and barely had time to look at games today. Probably won't have a lot this weekend either due to some other commitments. Keep the candle burning and I'll try to chip in a few.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-03-17, 12:07 AM

1-0 night. I overestimated the pace a little, but they made up for it by being more efficient than I expected. Idaho shot lights out (14-26) from three.

Thread: 70-60 (+5.12u)
Totals only: 68-55

**cooperman** · 02-03-17, 05:25 AM

I'll take 1-0 every night . keep the roll burnin

**thekoreanmang** · 02-03-17, 09:38 AM

Great stuff, HG. Love that 1-0 result. Slow and steady wins the race. Except, of course, when you need that over.

**Flea Hotel** · 02-03-17, 10:00 AM

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-03-17, 10:35 AM

Thanks guys. Glad to be of service.

Today is looking like a pass for me. Saturday will also likely be light. BOL to all!

**doubledime** · 02-03-17, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

1-0 night. I overestimated the pace a little, but they made up for it by being more efficient than I expected. Idaho shot lights out (14-26) from three.

Thread: 70-60 (+5.12u)
Totals only: 68-55

Well done!!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-04-17, 09:54 AM

Apologies to anyone who looks at my model numbers. I won't be updating it today. Probably no plays from me either. BOL today everyone!

**cooperman** · 02-04-17, 02:13 PM

Enjoy the weekend

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-05-17, 09:23 AM

I'm back up and running now. Unfortunately, I don't see anything on the short NCAA card today. I did stumble on a Super Bowl prop (two actually) that I think is worth playing:

Both teams have lead in the 1st half +130
A lead change in the 2nd half +150
Basically, as long as there is a lead change at any point in the game, this wins at least +30 (+50 if the lead change happens in the 2h but not the 1h).

Anyway, enjoy the Super Bowl everyone!

**doubledime** · 02-05-17, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

I'm back up and running now. Unfortunately, I don't see anything on the short NCAA card today. I did stumble on a Super Bowl prop (two actually) that I think is worth playing:

Both teams have lead in the 1st half +130
A lead change in the 2nd half +150
Basically, as long as there is a lead change at any point in the game, this wins at least +30 (+50 if the lead change happens in the 2h but not the 1h).

Anyway, enjoy the Super Bowl everyone!

I like it.

**DOM_Toretto** · 02-05-17, 11:22 AM

Where do you find that prop? What category? Can't find those anywhere

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-05-17, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by DOM_Toretto

Where do you find that prop? What category? Can't find those anywhere

It's available on 5Dimes among the million NFL props. Ctrl-F "change" lol. GL!

**thekoreanmang** · 02-05-17, 12:12 PM

That's a great way to arbitrage. Love the thinking on the props. I normally don't play props but the way you're playing it makes it seem not exotic at all which is always a good thing.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-05-17, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

That's a great way to arbitrage. Love the thinking on the props. I normally don't play props but the way you're playing it makes it seem not exotic at all which is always a good thing.

Props are just about all I play in the NFL. Just too hard to find any kind of edge with sides and totals. Another prop I like a lot today is:

ATL o1 FG made in the first half +147
Push seems like the worst case there.

I also have 2 player props that I posted on the NFL board. Lines may have moved a little:

Blount o.5 receptions +170
Bennett o3.5 receptions +115

**thekoreanmang** · 02-05-17, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

It's available on 5Dimes among the million NFL props. Ctrl-F "change" lol. GL!

It's in BookMaker, too. Not on BetOnline, though.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 02-05-17, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

I'm back up and running now. Unfortunately, I don't see anything on the short NCAA card today. I did stumble on a Super Bowl prop (two actually) that I think is worth playing:

Both teams have lead in the 1st half +130
A lead change in the 2nd half +150
Basically, as long as there is a lead change at any point in the game, this wins at least +30 (+50 if the lead change happens in the 2h but not the 1h).

Anyway, enjoy the Super Bowl everyone!

How was that for a crazy ass way to win a bet?

**ckingsbr** · 02-06-17, 12:19 AM

Great call. Didn't know that overtime was included as 2H but i'll take the win! Thanks for the plays!

**doubledime** · 02-06-17, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

How was that for a crazy ass way to win a bet?

You could not make this stuff up!

**dsaewra** · 02-06-17, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by ckingsbr

Great call. Didn't know that overtime was included as 2H but i'll take the win! Thanks for the plays!

Bovada graded it as a loss for me. Womp womp.

Time for a new book.