John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

**Nino7** · 02-13-12, 03:00 PM

im not saying backtesting has no value or anything like that but did u ask urself why would a team on the road that lost by spread+3,5 would perform better than an other on one of their next 2 games?is it actually about the bookies that start moving the lines too fast in their favor or something?
why does it work?

**Wallco99** · 02-13-12, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by Nino7

im not saying backtesting has no value or anything like that but did u ask urself why would a team on the road that lost by spread+3,5 would perform better than an other on one of their next 2 games?is it actually about the bookies that start moving the lines too fast in their favor or something?
why does it work?

I guess for the same reason JM says that any time a team goes on a three game road trip, that team will win a game with three extra points. Who knows why it works, but it does, even though I think we found a way around the 3 points.

**stickbit** · 02-13-12, 03:12 PM

Of course you can run wallco's system without buying points...its called labby lines!

**Maxi_EV** · 02-13-12, 03:13 PM

thelimit0310

Acknowledged.

**Wallco99** · 02-13-12, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by stickbit

Of course you can run wallco's system without buying points...its called labby lines!

There is no point buying in Chase 110.

**stickbit** · 02-13-12, 03:29 PM

Sorry meant to say betting the moneyline. No need to if u bet with labby lines.

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-13-12, 04:52 PM

I was not referring to your questions about the labby line and how it was run. I was referring to Steve as he keeps talking about the A bets.

Yes, you can Run A bets on 1 line and B & C bets on another line. Yes I ran a labby at the beginning of the season using 1 line and it did get pretty high. If i had 4 #s on the line I would bet 2 #s for 1 game and 2 #s for another game. It got kinda sloppy and the line did get pretty heavy. With that said I would suggest using 2 lines as i stated above (1 for A, 1 for B&C). I would do a standard -110 odds ATS with the labby line.

The Labby is designed for -110 odds not -200 or -300. If you use higher odds then -110 for the labby it basically becomes a chase. For example:
Labby at: 10 / 10 / 10 / 10
Bet A at -200 ($40 to win $20) LOSS

New line: 16 / 16 / 16 / 16 / 16
Next Bet: $64 to win $32.

Compared to chase method (martingale) the labby line is only slightly less variance, but takes more time to clear that 1 unit you were trying to make so effectively the same thing when you are using higher then -110 odds.

With that said I think I can say labby with show a profit with the A bets since they hit around 55% (dont quote me % on this) ATS with out buying points. 55% success rate using the labby and PROPER BANKROLL MANAGEMENT will allow you to show a profit if you use 1 line labby for the A bets.

My overall advice for JM since the 7/5 is officially back tested and best way to maximize your profit LONG TERM would be to
1) labby all (A) bets with a single labby line using -110 ATS.
2) If bet goes to B or C use the 7/5 method.
3) Use 100 units for this system as your bankroll to assure security and safety in the long run.

I do not mean to offend anyone in this thread. Also Wallco I do not think you can rightfully say chase will show more profit then labby long run because of the losses that are made back while using the labby. People just have to understand the labby is still a form of a chase and a sufficient bankroll is needed for it. There is still great risk using the labby as I have learned and it is not always low variance using it. If you test the beginning of this season you will be able to see this for yourself using a single line labby.

I think this should clear up all discussion with 7/5 as well as A bets.

Any further questions about A bets should be directed towards last years forum with all the data was published.

KEY ADVICE
bankroll
bankroll
bankroll!
and dont follow too many systems at once.

--JMD--

**1gamer** · 02-13-12, 04:52 PM

2/13 Play Postponed

**thelimit0310** · 02-13-12, 06:04 PM

Since it's nigh impossible to backtest the labby, I decided to run it separately but with 7/5 as JMD suggested for this season only and it works so far at +27 units. At 1 point this season you would be laying down ~8 unit bets to clear your line but it would have cleared if you did it. The method this year is 128 units with the A labby. If any of you do take JMD's advice and decide to implement the 7/5 in this way, I would be careful and only try to win .75 units or .5 units per bet so its rare that you have too much exposure. If it continues to work it would be a nice supplement to the 7/5, but really who knows what will happen in the future.

**bisturis** · 02-13-12, 06:58 PM

TheLimit, I keep trying to give you points for your JM post but it won't let me.

Thanks for keeping up with it!

**COBRA31** · 02-13-12, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by COBRA31

Can you share the backtest bet results for A,B,&C for all three versions.

Similar to the sheet provided in post #1661.

Would be much appreciated !

How about it theLimit?

Is it possible to share the bet results. I trust the 7/5 is the best method...however i would like to see the data myself and play around with my own strategy possibly. I am more on the conservative side and want to check out options that I am more comfortable with. This data would be very helpful.

I'm specifically looking for the results of the series strictly ATS and not buying points. The A,B,and C results for all 3 versions.

Do you have it ? Are you willing to share ? I understand the work that was involved and I would hate to have to duplicate the effort if it is readily available.

Thank You

**dlunc3** · 02-13-12, 10:14 PM

thelimit said send $100 to thelimit@gmail.com via pay pal and you will have this requested info

**1gamer** · 02-13-12, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

thelimit said send $100 to thelimit@gmail.com via pay pal and you will have this requested info

**1gamer** · 02-13-12, 10:30 PM

Nicely done on the Hornets

**COBRA31** · 02-13-12, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

thelimit said send $100 to thelimit@gmail.com via pay pal and you will have this requested info

Ha ha....nice one. Do you want to split the cost ?

**Wallco99** · 02-13-12, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by COBRA31

How about it theLimit?

Is it possible to share the bet results. I trust the 7/5 is the best method...however i would like to see the data myself and play around with my own strategy possibly. I am more on the conservative side and want to check out options that I am more comfortable with. This data would be very helpful.

I'm specifically looking for the results of the series strictly ATS and not buying points. The A,B,and C results for all 3 versions.

Do you have it ? Are you willing to share ? I understand the work that was involved and I would hate to have to duplicate the effort if it is readily available.

Thank You

Everyone wants a handout. This forum blows my mind, nothing is ever enough.

**patocarranza84** · 02-13-12, 11:22 PM

Nice win thanks 4 your system wallco and now wait 4 nets!!

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-13-12, 11:32 PM

HERE IS THE LIST OF STRATEGIES STARTING FROM THE BEST TO THE WORSE

#1: 7/5 (-110 odds)
#2: B&C BET TO WIN 3UNITS FROM B buying 3 points
#3: 1-3-5 (-110)
#4: ABC BUY 3 POINTS (-170 TO -200)
#5: ABC WITH OUT BUYING POINTS (FAILURE LONG TERM)
*OF COURSE you can do the labby in here as well.

ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THESE 5 STRATEGIES PLEASE READ THIS YEARS FORUM AND FOR BACK TESTING READ THIS YEARS AND LAST YEARS FORUM. STOP ASKING TO BE SPOON FED THE SAME INFORMATION EVERY DAY.

--JMD

**J.M. Disciple** · 02-13-12, 11:36 PM

wallco and limit really should charge who ever wants all the details of their back testing. To put up with this much bull crap from everyone every day can be very frustrating. Either take their word for it or do the back testing yourself. If you want their results then pay for it. There hard work should not be taken advantage of.

At the very least give them maximum points every day for posting the plays for you all.

**Wallco99** · 02-13-12, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by patocarranza84

Nice win thanks 4 your system wallco and now wait 4 nets!!

Your welcome.

**Wallco99** · 02-13-12, 11:40 PM

What a day, New Orleans and Charlotte both covered decent size bets for me tonight, two crap teams = +10 units.

Need Vancouver for a 5-0-1 night.

**COBRA31** · 02-13-12, 11:49 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

wallco and limit really should charge who ever wants all the details of their back testing. To put up with this much bull crap from everyone every day can be very frustrating. Either take their word for it or do the back testing yourself. If you want their results then pay for it. There hard work should not be taken advantage of.

At the very least give them maximum points every day for posting the plays for you all.

Who is taking advantage here ? I simply asked if it was willing to be shared. I give no crap to anyone.

This thread is soo damn testy. Like a bunch of hormonal women. Unbelievable.

**COBRA31** · 02-14-12, 12:01 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Everyone wants a handout. This forum blows my mind, nothing is ever enough.

Another thing...I don't understand your message either Wallco. Everyone looking for a handout?

I 100% respect everything you have done here. As well as theLimit, JMD, Wilba, Kev the Brit. Everybody is awesome and amazing.

If my request was out of line then so be it....but don't get it twisted. I am here to help and contribute however possible. No I don't have time to do an 8 year backtest...so yes I fail there. Perhaps my ignorance but thought this was a place for sharing ideas, and everyone looking at ways to make money. I wanted to look at the results and see if there were other helpful possibilities out there, not only for myself.

But F it...I'll do it myself. I'm sorry for putting anyone out.

**Wallco99** · 02-14-12, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by COBRA31

Who is taking advantage here ? I simply asked if it was willing to be shared. I give no crap to anyone.

This thread is soo damn testy. Like a bunch of hormonal women. Unbelievable.

I am not getting testy, you are the third person to ask for that. You know that him and I read every post in here, so by asking again, you are basically saying that he happened to read every post in here but somehow managed to miss the two posts from people asking to post his weeks of work, so they wouldn't have to do anything themselves. I am not mad at you at all, but the man can read, and if they are not posted, it's because he doesn't want to and that is completely his right. It's not you in particular, but every day, someone is asking others to backtest something for them, or give them results, or post personal spreadsheets, and god knows what else. And no matter how much people give, they still ask for more.

**Wallco99** · 02-14-12, 12:09 AM

Sorry Cobra, I am really not trying to start trouble with you at all. You are one of the peaceful people in here, just some things bother me, didn't mean to take it out on you.

**COBRA31** · 02-14-12, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Sorry Cobra, I am really not trying to start trouble with you at all. You are one of the peaceful people in here, just some things bother me, didn't mean to take it out on you.

No need to apologize here. I certainly understand frustration from some of the posts. I think they could mostly just be ignored. I did ask a few times for the data. I guess a non reply I did take as possibly missed. I am here on the West Coast and normally post late...so thought it could have happened. It is not wrong to simply say...NO. I am a big boy and can handle it. Or offer to sell it and I might be interested.

I can honestly tell you this is the first time I have ever joined any forum..and ran up on it by accident. Certainly glad I did. I will have to work on my approach perhaps.

I do appreciate your continued support here and the work you are doing. In the future if my post bothers you or anyone else...just tell me to piss off with a smiley face at least and I'll get the picture. I just don't like being accused of taking handouts or advantage cause that is truly not my style. I am willing to help anyone if I can here.

**Riceboi** · 02-14-12, 12:36 AM

I just want to thank everyone in this thread that took the time to backtest anything. Very grateful.

**jcygts6** · 02-14-12, 01:23 AM

Agreed!! Thanks wallco and thelimit with the daily updating

**Wallco99** · 02-14-12, 06:12 AM

Originally posted by COBRA31

No need to apologize here. I certainly understand frustration from some of the posts. I think they could mostly just be ignored. I did ask a few times for the data. I guess a non reply I did take as possibly missed. I am here on the West Coast and normally post late...so thought it could have happened. It is not wrong to simply say...NO. I am a big boy and can handle it. Or offer to sell it and I might be interested.

I can honestly tell you this is the first time I have ever joined any forum..and ran up on it by accident. Certainly glad I did. I will have to work on my approach perhaps.

I do appreciate your continued support here and the work you are doing. In the future if my post bothers you or anyone else...just tell me to piss off with a smiley face at least and I'll get the picture. I just don't like being accused of taking handouts or advantage cause that is truly not my style. I am willing to help anyone if I can here.

All good, let's get back to winning, enough with the side show. That usually happens on days when there are no JM bets, at least when there are, we have the topic of "ineffective A bets" to argue about.

**Wallco99** · 02-14-12, 06:36 AM

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 34-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -3.29 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-3.41 units)

(2/13/12):
#37 New Orleans (+5) (B) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 25-12
(B) 4-8
(C) 3-4
(D) 2-2

V2 Plays
In production

Games for (2/14/12):
#36 Resumes (C) on 2/15/12
#38 Miami @ Indiana (+2½) (A) (7:05 pm EST)

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

**thelimit0310** · 02-14-12, 10:27 AM

JM Feb 14

V1 ATLANTA +8.5 @ LA Lakers (A)
V1 SACRAMENTO +15 @ Chicago (A)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

**MistaKev** · 02-14-12, 11:16 AM

hey FEB 14 ATL, WASH, SA, AND SAC?

**ChiLLx** · 02-14-12, 11:42 AM

Love the Pacers play tonight.

**thelimit0310** · 02-14-12, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by MistaKev

hey FEB 14 ATL, WASH, SA, AND SAC?

Whoops, forgot Sacramento. Washington and SA are not official.

**SportsTerminator** · 02-14-12, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by ChiLLx

Love the Pacers play tonight.