LTA's NBA Plays

**alamo** · 03-27-12, 12:24 AM

What was dodgy for me was as soon as they made the shot he reached in immediately and they blew. 6secs left for fcks sakes and your up by 16. Its standard practice to just want to get the fck out of there. The announcer goes (laughing) "Oh come on, I guess there's some people who may still have an interest in these free throws")

It cost me a lot of € that foul. I feel sick.

**SlickRick1382** · 03-27-12, 12:49 AM

Even though it's negative EV I'm glad I bought the half point. Sickening to lose or push a game like this though that was on pace to cash easily ...

**Dtown13** · 03-27-12, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 3/26/2012

0 - 1 - 1 = -1.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

112 - 102 = +6.9x

Unreal last second push on that Clippers under. We had a 52 point cushion going into the 4th quarter on a 182 total...that play cashes over 75% of the time. When it rains it pours...onto Tuesday. Good luck.

LTA I have to give it to you buddy. Nothing and nobody seems to rattle you. You are a true sport. I can only pray that I learn from you because I am not that good of a sport myself.

**That Guy** · 03-27-12, 04:24 AM

Spurs / Suns down to 200.5 on books in Australia

**aussieH** · 03-27-12, 04:38 AM

Which book. I have 201.5, 202.5 and 202.5 on 3 separate books in Australia

**mikea33** · 03-27-12, 05:56 AM

Worthlesss hornets

**That Guy** · 03-27-12, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by aussieH

Which book. I have 201.5, 202.5 and 202.5 on 3 separate books in Australia

Was on Sportsbet.. moved back to 201.5

**alamo** · 03-27-12, 07:31 AM

Line is now 202.5 with most books

**G-manFan** · 03-27-12, 07:47 AM

203 scattered around as well. Better lock up now, LTA most likely dead on with his thoughts. This one most likely closes around 204.

**CheeseHead** · 03-27-12, 08:25 AM

I wake up and find there was a 53 point 4th quarter? Imagine that, I had under 181.5....when it rains it pours I guess

**Vasco** · 03-27-12, 08:43 AM

What a tough beat, we are due for some wins starting today. What's the opinion on Houston getting 7.5 at Dallas? Houston just played a tough OT game vs Kings, but is Dallas playing well enough to be laying that many points? I think I'll take the points unless someone can talk me out of it. I like the Sixers if Iguodala plays, but not sure what the spread will be.

**d3llan** · 03-27-12, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Just an FYI, there's this crazy new website called "google" where you can get a lot of easily searchable information....I heard it works great

JK, There's a ton of sites out there but I really use these a lot:

www.basketballreference.com
www.hoopdata.com
www.teamrankings.com
www.basketballvalue.com
www.82games.com
www.espn.com (look for John Hollinger stuff on there such as PER ratings)
www.nbastuffer.com

There's more that I can't think of right now....good luck.

Thanks dude. Yeah I heard about google aswell, to smart website for me!

**underal** · 03-27-12, 09:30 AM

186(-113) total on cavs/ sixers looks too high to me. should we grab the under now?

**Kurtz** · 03-27-12, 10:39 AM

Spurs/Suns at 203.5 at 5Dimes now.

**Love The Action** · 03-27-12, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/27/2012

Play #1

Spurs/Suns over (202) 1x (Locked)

The health of the Spurs is improving as I expect Ginobli, Duncan and Parker to all suit up on Tuesday. I would not be surprised to see Neal and Splitter, although it is likely that they split. Regardless, we have two teams that have begun to play much faster of late and who are both top 10 in PACE for the season regardless. In the first game between these two teams in January, we played the over at 196 ad lost as it ended at 193. Despite that under, the books agree that this game should be higher scoring and they set this one at an opener of 201. Since that open, that number has been bet up to the 202 it currently sits. I expect over money tomorrow to push this one up to the 203 range where it should close. Both teams are top 10 in OEFF and bottom 1/3 in DEFF. If you look at the previous game, that one only hit 193 despite a 95 PACE for the game. The reason? Well, SA only shot 26% from beyond the arc, well below their league leading season average of 39%. In addition, Phoenix only shot 40% for the game and 33% from 3 point range. Finally both teams only shot about 74% from the ft line. I expect all of those numbers to improve on Tuesday night. As long as we see a similar PACE at or around 92 or 93, this game should sail over the posted total. I have this game set at 205.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Time to put the bad beats and negativity behind us and start a winning streak today. This is the only play so far as posted last night, but I am looking into a few more leans. This is a new day and its time to get back to our winning ways. Good luck!

**mikea33** · 03-27-12, 11:35 AM

Lta/...seems to be alot of nice games ......wat r ur leans ur lookin at?
Def time to put the negativity behind us

**r1kkie** · 03-27-12, 11:36 AM

You know how it is. After rain there is sunshine! Lets make a killing tonight!

Thanks for all the picks LTA, appreciate it!

**remypom** · 03-27-12, 11:47 AM

I got a feeling.. That tonight's gonna b a good night

**Notorious_Donk** · 03-27-12, 11:53 AM

I'm goin in on this play. Lets get it LTA

**meader99** · 03-27-12, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Time to put the bad beats and negativity behind us and start a winning streak today. This is the only play so far as posted last night, but I am looking into a few more leans. This is a new day and its time to get back to our winning ways. Good luck!

Get on those Blazers!

**JM92** · 03-27-12, 12:43 PM

In ten 10 last ten games as a 9 point or more favorite, the Sixers are now 8-2 ATS. Every time they seem to need a big win, they get it. They will be playing home, so even without Igoudala, Sixers - 9 is looking like a great play. Any thoughts?

**Pick'nParlays** · 03-27-12, 02:27 PM

bol with that over LTA

**Vasco** · 03-27-12, 02:31 PM

I like the Sixers too, but a little nervous about the points. I think I'd feel more comfortable at -7, even though the Cavs have been atrocious lately. Does Igoudala's absence hurt or help the under? I threw a small wager on it before I knew he was out.

**jas19illini** · 03-27-12, 02:38 PM

It appears as though his absence hurts the under. PHI seems to score more with him out and allow more pts too.

**jas19illini** · 03-27-12, 02:54 PM

Is Felton out tonight for Portland?

**Manel88** · 03-27-12, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by jas19illini

Is Felton out tonight for Portland?

Yes he is

**JM92** · 03-27-12, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by Vasco

I like the Sixers too, but a little nervous about the points. I think I'd feel more comfortable at -7, even though the Cavs have been atrocious lately. Does Igoudala's absence hurt or help the under? I threw a small wager on it before I knew he was out.

He's one of four guys (Young, Turner and Holliday being the others) who loves to hit the defensive glass and push the pace. Is also, probably, their best playmaker. So, I think it helps the under a lot.

**apurvaas** · 03-27-12, 05:49 PM

Has anyone noticed MEM/MINN line?
Line opened MEM-5.5, stayed there entire day moved to -4 then back to -5 and now at -4.5 in last 5 minutes?
Any news for injury in MEM?
I was leaning MEM -5 but staying away from that game

TIA

**TC Woods** · 03-27-12, 05:52 PM

Any "leans" out there? I'm considering Cleveland +9 1/2, Milwaukee -2 and Portland +5

**Vasco** · 03-27-12, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by apurvaas

Has anyone noticed MEM/MINN line?
Line opened MEM-5.5, stayed there entire day moved to -4 then back to -5 and now at -4.5 in last 5 minutes?
Any news for injury in MEM?
I was leaning MEM -5 but staying away from that game

TIA

Gasol is out.

**JM92** · 03-27-12, 05:59 PM

Yes Gasol is out. Almost afraid I made a really bad play on Memphis but it wasn't a steam issue the line movement. Damn it would've easily been my worst play in the last two months. Still don't have many chances now but at least I don't have the feeling I got beat a full point by the steam.

**Love The Action** · 03-27-12, 07:04 PM

My only other strong lean for tonight is on the Hawks/Bucks over at 196, but I'm going to pass. Just can't trust the Hawks with a total that high (currently at 197 or more) in a game Milwaukee could also struggle offensively with this being their 6th game in 7 nights.

My card is final. Good luck to all.

**mikea33** · 03-27-12, 07:27 PM

This is only a 1x play at 202 correct?

**IllyPhilly[DOC]** · 03-27-12, 07:35 PM

GL LTA. Love the play. Parlayed it with phx+over. lets get it.

**pacocn** · 03-27-12, 09:09 PM

Lta, bol on your play, i feel you are going
to start to roll.