You may want to wait it out to see if you can get that play at 180 again. With NBA totals, you generally see three or four waves of steam throughout the day moving them up and back down. Other games may move all in one direction, but I don't view this as one of those games. The books can't go much lower with this total or they will get too much money back over the top. I would be surprised to see this one go lower than 178 and you might see this one get back up to 180 for a few minutes before coming back down. Might be worth waiting for. Personally, I would not take this any lower than 179.
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Nice pick, TailingComment -
They are waiting after warmups but he says he feels good enough to play Rip is outComment -
Wise words indeed... For people who want to rule these NBA streets at night ;-)
Sports Betting 101 - LAWS and BY-LAWS
NEVER put all your nest eggs in one basket and leave them unattended expecting them to hatch! Do your own HW and put some time and effort into your own plays! NEVER blow your load all over one game! This is a marathon and NOT a sprint to the finish line! We are NOT gonna find one beauty and stay married to her! In fact, we are gonna walk down the hill and fukk-em-all!
NEVER chase lost money! She's gone so let her go you damn stalkers! Manage your money and games accordingly! Have a predetermined game plan so you are ALWAYS shooting from the hip and holster at all times! Sometimes it may be with both guns blazing but NEVER shoot from your ass with one eye opened!
NEVER bet what you cannot afford! NEVER rob Peter to pay Pauly! NEVER count a game over until the clock has expired! NEVER dwell on ex-gf's because there are more out there that need poundings! Move forward and stay focused!
ALWAYS expect the worst that can possibly happen! Anything truly is possible! Back door covers have been robbing many blind! The moose has been on the loose and fukin many from the behind lately!
ALWAYS treat people kindly and fairly! KARMA is a real motha fuker in this game! Be patient, disciplined, organized, and prepared! NEVER go home mad!
ALWAYS be prepared for the dark clouds and storms to roll in but enjoy the sunny days while you can!
NEVER just post criticizing negative comments about someone else's well researched, well documented, and well prepared hw unless you can support your side with valid facts and information! They have spent numerous hours in an attempt to better us all financially so we can keep milkin' our individual cash cows!
NEVER be an asshole just because you can! ALWAYS try to support your opinion with valid reasons and not just an opinion.
Good luckComment -
Donnie - I always read LTA's write ups. I like to see how he comes to his conclusion on his picks. I didn't see anything along the lines of the lowest he would take it.
LTA - thanks for your recommendation(s). As a sixers fan I'd much rather take a shot at the over under, then get wrapped up in the spread here.Comment -
About as much sports betting wisdom as I have ever seen in just one brief article. Thank you.
Wise words indeed... For people who want to rule these NBA streets at night ;-)
Sports Betting 101 - LAWS and BY-LAWS
NEVER put all your nest eggs in one basket and leave them unattended expecting them to hatch! Do your own HW and put some time and effort into your own plays! NEVER blow your load all over one game! This is a marathon and NOT a sprint to the finish line! We are NOT gonna find one beauty and stay married to her! In fact, we are gonna walk down the hill and fukk-em-all!
NEVER chase lost money! She's gone so let her go you damn stalkers! Manage your money and games accordingly! Have a predetermined game plan so you are ALWAYS shooting from the hip and holster at all times! Sometimes it may be with both guns blazing but NEVER shoot from your ass with one eye opened!
NEVER bet what you cannot afford! NEVER rob Peter to pay Pauly! NEVER count a game over until the clock has expired! NEVER dwell on ex-gf's because there are more out there that need poundings! Move forward and stay focused!
ALWAYS expect the worst that can possibly happen! Anything truly is possible! Back door covers have been robbing many blind! The moose has been on the loose and fukin many from the behind lately!
ALWAYS treat people kindly and fairly! KARMA is a real motha fuker in this game! Be patient, disciplined, organized, and prepared! NEVER go home mad!
ALWAYS be prepared for the dark clouds and storms to roll in but enjoy the sunny days while you can!
NEVER just post criticizing negative comments about someone else's well researched, well documented, and well prepared hw unless you can support your side with valid facts and information! They have spent numerous hours in an attempt to better us all financially so we can keep milkin' our individual cash cows!
NEVER be an asshole just because you can! ALWAYS try to support your opinion with valid reasons and not just an opinion.
Good luck
Now, do you know how I can go back in time (about 30 years or so) and use this knowledge then?
LOLComment -
Can't find anything on Deng but questionable and he was aiming to play thursday but didnt so with a day of rest he might play tonightComment -
I want to bet on MIL +5 so bad but they are 1-6 ATS on B2B games and Bogut is out. Any thoughts?Comment -
on it, lta, bol!Comment -
Deng is a game time decision. He was for the Philly game as well and then ended up not playing. My guess is that he doesn't play tonight but I'm a Bulls fan so I really hope he does.Comment -
Also determines (if he does play) whether or not he needs surgeryComment -
Just got out of the barber shop and two of the totals I am eyeing for plays both moved 1 point. Man that pisses me off....Don't you just hate it when life gets in the way of watching the lines
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Lta, i bet you look pretty handsome w/ that new cut.Comment -
Never underestimate the effect a fresh cut can have on your handicapping skills!Comment -
I was thinking the same thing. LMFAOComment -
Play #2
Magic/Pacers under (187.5) 1x (Locked)
This one started to move at 5d while Pinny was juicing the over 187 at -110. I jumped on the 187.5 as soon as 5D moved to 187 a few minutes ago. Pinny just dropped to -107 on the over at 187. This play will be won or lost on the 3 point shooting percentages of both teams. If the tired legs and defenses can't keep these guys from shooting for 37%, then we could be in trouble. However, I think the fatigue that both teams are facing will be manifested in rather poor 3 point shooting percentages under 37% tonight as neither team will have the lift that it takes to hit those shots. Both teams depend highly on that shot for their scoring and without it, we could see a slow paced low scoring game. With no rest, Orlando and Indy are a combined 4-9 o/u on b2b games and average 179 and 186 points respectively in that situation. Both teams already play a slow pace in general where Indy ranks 18th in PACE and Orland is 26th. These two teams played on Jan 29th, both coming in with one day rest and played to a 90.7 PACE with 3 point shooting percentages of 47% and 43%. Needless to say, that game went over and hit 191 points. However, 5 days before that game with Orlando on a b2b and Indy off an emotional hard fought win against the Lakers they played each other to a 88 PACE with three point shooting percentages of 40% and 27%. When you take into account that George Hill is out for the Pacers, this causes a bit of a fatigue problem for their backcourt with this being a b2b and 3 in 4. Orlando is in a similar spot without Jameer Nelson causing more playing time for Duhon in this b2b and 3 in 4 for Orlando. In this fatigue spots, both teams tend to play a half-court slow paced game and if the three pointers drop they score 95-100 and if they don't drop they score 88-90. With both teams having sold defense with a DEFF ranking of 6th for Indy and 14th for Orlando, I think we see both teams score in that 88-90 range rather than the 95-100 range. Both teams are adept at drawing fouls and avoiding fouls on defense, so the refs could play a major role tonight. The ref assignments are Collins, Fehr and Kogut. I don't view any of the three as a threat, with Collins and Fehr both having had some solid "under" seasons and all three of them having a low 40 foul per game lifetime average. All in all, I expect a PACE around 87 with both teams shooting under 37% from behind the arc and having an overall shooting percentage of around 44%. I have this game set at 183.5 giving us over 3 points in value which is good enough for me in this situation. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x.Comment -
Tailing - Let's hit these unders.
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Alright LTA, let's keep this gravy train choo choo'n away! I'll shoot you some SBR Points as soon as they let me. I got PHI/ATL 179 and ORL/IND 187 btw.Comment -
Play #3
Warriors/Kings over (199) 1x (Locked)
This is the game I missed out on 198 earlier in the day and I really wish I was able to get that number. However, this line movement is very odd in this game and I'm going to preserve myself 1x on the over at 199. I may actually add to this play if I can get a better number later, as I have this as a rather strong rated play. One of the factors to this play that caught my attention was the reverse adjustment by the odds makers to the opening number. If you remember, on Tuesday, we played the over in this exact matchup when we waited to get 197 from an opener of 199 and beat the closer by a full point with Pinny juicing the over 198 at -107. Unfortunately, that game stayed well under only hitting 183 total points. Obviously, the books would make an adjust in favor of the under for this game right? Wrong, instead Pinny opened this game at 199.5, a half point more than the opener of the other game. In addition, whenever we have seen line movement on the under in this game, someone comes in and drives the price right back up. In this game, we have two teams that rank top 10 in PACE with incentive to play fast and motivated. Sacramento has Marcus Thornton back which should really energize that Sacramento offense because it allows them to have a consistent scoring threat while putting the Jimmer back on the bench where he belongs and only coming in when they need some three point shots. For the Warriors, Marc Jackson has challenged both Ellis and Curry to bring their A-game night in and night out and play with more offensive consistency. This will be their second game back after getting benched for much of the 4th quarter against the Kings when the team won late. They both played great in their last game since and I expect them to have a great game tonight. Both teams are brutal on defense with rankings in the bottom 10 in DEFF, Opponent Floor %, OTS% , OEFG%, etc. I just don't think either team has any incentive to play tough defense tonight and I expect them to run and gun. When playing rested like tonight, the Warriors are 8-3 o/u with an average total of 201, which tells me they are at their offensive peak when rested. I think the Kings have no problem playing a fast pace tonight and I expect them to have a better idea offensively after playing against this defense a few days ago. I have this game set at 202, which is one point more than I had this game a few days ago. I really think the addition of Thornton will be big for Sacramento and I expect this to be a very competitive game. I also lean to Sacramento to get the win here and am contemplating a play on the side as well. For now, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Whats ur angle on the kings? They are terrible arent they?Comment -
LTA Just got the Magic Pacer's game at 188!Comment -
Got under 88 too LTA.
Love the GS over. With a rousing Sat. night crowd expected given the local rivalry and the whole sports Super Bowl festive weekend air...could be a bit more of the old fashioned 'blow and go" games of yesteryear with these guys.
BOL Everyone.
Btw, I got every LTA line or better. Hopefully we all did.
CatchComment -
Did you get all those lines because you checked LTAs thread at the right time? Or did you wait for the movement to go against us?Comment -
I misjudged the Indy/Orl under as I thought it topped out at 187. It's at 188 at Pinny and 188.5 at some places. I should have waited. Win or lose, this was not a good long term play. One of the very few that have moved against me lately. With that said, I still really like the under here. I just wish I would have gotten a better number.
The Philly under moved back to 180 like I predicted, so that doesn't worry me, plus I think it will close around 179.5.
Heading out to dinner soon. Might have a few more plays. I will try to post. Good luck to everyone tonight.
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New haircut? Saturday night dinner? Sounds like someones got a hot date tonight.Comment -
Haha woops have fun
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Im with you on kings and Hawks for 2X will put a chunk on Rockets ML aswellComment
