LTA's NBA Plays

Donkeys2012 · 02-02-12, 10:19 PM

Yea this one is gonna be close. Those last 5 points at the end of the quarter hurt. Cant believe NO still shooting light out.

jackdean33 · 02-02-12, 10:22 PM

goodish start to the 4th, that guy who was 17-4 picked new orleans +9. That will be iffy, they are shooting 52% and are still down by 7, can't see that holding up.

Catchn_Picks · 02-02-12, 10:27 PM

178 pace with 8 minutes to go.

jackdean33 · 02-02-12, 10:27 PM

13pts in the last 2 mins there, not good.

Donkeys2012 · 02-02-12, 10:28 PM

Were in trouble both teams are pushing the pace still.

jackdean33 · 02-02-12, 10:29 PM

Going to be so tight, we need to keep it under 25 in the last 6:46

Donkeys2012 · 02-02-12, 10:29 PM

This game is a prime example why I dont like unders. Even when you are right you sometimes lose. Cant believe NO still at 48%.

Donkeys2012 · 02-02-12, 10:33 PM

Of course Ariza who was 1-8 hits a 3.

jackdean33 · 02-02-12, 10:34 PM

Originally posted by Donkeys2012

This game is a prime example why I dont like unders. Even when you are right you sometimes lose. Cant believe NO still at 48%.

same cos teams can go for 60 point quarters out of the blue. In an over it is usually more like oh ive got no chance then you get a surprise win but in unders you think you have it and then bam one big scoring quarter and you lose.

jackdean33 · 02-02-12, 10:35 PM

no score in 2 mins, 21 in last 4 mins. looking better.

Catchn_Picks · 02-02-12, 10:36 PM

175 Pace with 3:36 left!!

DEEEEEEFENse San Antonio

Donkeys2012 · 02-02-12, 10:37 PM

Yea as long as we can get NO to miss a few more shots and SA to slow the pace down a bit its looking better.

jackdean33 · 02-02-12, 10:39 PM

4pts in a 3:09 stretch. heaven!

Catchn_Picks · 02-02-12, 10:39 PM

Also 12 points away makes fouls less likely. Lookin good.

Donkeys2012 · 02-02-12, 10:40 PM

Yea hopefully SA keeps this double digit lead so we dont get into the foul game last minute.

Catchn_Picks · 02-02-12, 10:43 PM

Yea Baby!!!!!!!!!

Donkeys2012 · 02-02-12, 10:44 PM

Great call LTA. Another Winner.

jackdean33 · 02-02-12, 10:44 PM

wow LTA is an amazing capper. he has it set at 180 and final score was 174
You always seem to be within about 5 of the end total LTA!

Just 12 points scored in the last 5:40 mins really helped us!

Catchn_Picks · 02-02-12, 10:46 PM

Let's go Denver to bring it home!

Great positional spot for Denver. If LAC folds, it will most likely be in the second half, imo.

h23jdmlude · 02-02-12, 10:48 PM

Thanks for the under pick LTA. Great cappin.

mikea33 · 02-02-12, 10:49 PM

Didnt think that was gonna cash due to Hornets being on fire..Good thing they cooled down and hopefully LTA stays hot with Denver.

Bang bang bang

MrXYZ · 02-02-12, 11:57 PM

Clips hot early but good comeback by the Nuggets. Let's get this!

Catchn_Picks · 02-03-12, 12:02 AM

Fatigue in the second half starting to get to the Clips...let's hope it continues.

Catchn_Picks · 02-03-12, 12:03 AM

If Griffin would have hit that big dunk instead of being taken down it would have been another highlight reel.

Catchn_Picks · 02-03-12, 12:04 AM

What a third quarter for Denver!!!!!!!..(so far)

Catchn_Picks · 02-03-12, 12:29 AM

Denver is a very solid ball club. No ego...no BS...just good, fundamental ball.

One quarter to go.

dlunc3 · 02-03-12, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

Denver is a very solid ball club. No ego...no BS...just good, fundamental ball.

One quarter to go.

I agree... They are the western conference version of philly but probably a little better

Donnie Brasco · 02-03-12, 03:56 AM

LTA for prez!

Sol · 02-03-12, 05:27 AM

LTA, followed your threads for a bit now as a guest on the forums, appreciate the effort and explanations you put into each pick

Love The Action · 02-03-12, 05:27 AM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/2/2012 Recap

2 - 0 = +2x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

57 - 47 = +10.85x

Let's just keep rolling. Back to the grind. Good luck Friday.

Catchn_Picks · 02-03-12, 08:29 AM

Love The Action · 02-03-12, 08:43 AM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/3/2012

Play #1

Heat/Sixers under (194) 1x (Locked)

This is a rematch of last season's playoff series and the intensity will be heightened. This is not the same Philly team as they are now more experienced and playing at a very high level on both offense and defense. Last season, Philly had a hard time playing well on both sides of the ball on a consistent basis. This season, they have discovered that the true key to consistent winning in the NBA is the result of defensive effort. I expect this game to be all about defense for both teams. Miami is coming off a humiliating loss to the Bucks the day before yesterday and that loss will be fresh in their minds after squandering a 17 point lead. In addition to running way too many ineffective isolation sets, Miami's defense was atrocious. This presents a great bounce-back opportunity for Miami to get rolling on defense once again. The key to this play is getting at least 194, which is the third most common final score in the NBA behind 189 and 197. While I do understand that this total might go up before it goes back down, I was targeting 194 so I could not pass it up and risk losing it while I am at work. That is why I am locking this one up now before the ref assignments are released. If this total goes up to 195 before dropping, there is a solid chance I bump this up to a 1.5x play or more. Even though the Heat and Sixers are ranked 2nd and 6th respectively in OEFF, they are also ranked 10th and 1st in DEFF. Because they are both coming off a day of rest, I expect the intensity of this game to manifest itself on the defensive edge. I suspect we do not see many open looks for either team, as both defenses will look to establish themselves early. These two teams played to a 205 point final score on January 21st, with a total that opened at 195 and closed at 193 with Pinny juicing the under at -113 (which is like -126 at any other book). Now, despite a 205 final score on a closer of 193, Pinny opened today's game with an adjustment in favor of the under by opening at 192, a full three points lower than the previous opener and one point lower than the previous close. I think the books are tipping their hand just a bit with that opening number and offering a very enticing number for over bettors. In that previous game, the teams played to a very slow PACE of 88, but were able to hit 205 because of phenomenal shooting performances by both teams (Philly shot 53% from behind the arc, while Miami hit 54% of all shots). It will be extremely difficult for these teams to recreate those shooting performances, especially when you consider that Miami will be keying on stopping Philly's outside shot according to comments from Spoelstra and Philly has a top 5 defense in all major advanced statistical categories (e.g. just to name a few DEFF, TS%, EFG%, Points in the Paint, OF%, Fastbreak Points Per Game, etc.). Philly is coming off a dominating defensive performance against the Bulls and I think they understand the necessity of playing the same type of game in order to defeat another top echelon team like Miami. Miami's dependence on isolation offensive sets and Philly's dominance in defending the same, should play an important role in this game. On the other side, Philly's depth will be a problem for Miami to defend. However, Philly plays at a slow PACE ranked toward the bottom of the league at 90.6. Consequently, I expect this to be classic game where both teams get off to a hot start and then slow it down considerably in the 2h. I have this game set at 190 which supports the books' adjustment in favor of the under in this game, however, I expect the majority of all bets to be in the over's favor at least 60/40 by tip. That provides us with a nice little opportunity to fade the majority in this game. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x now and possibly more down the road. Good luck.

Catchn_Picks · 02-03-12, 08:52 AM

Great pick LTA.

I had 3 totals circled last night for today and this was one. Kind a surprised that it juiced up overnight. I mean I would think most sharp money would be looking under with both stats and situational trends pointing to the under.

Hmmm

Oh well, locked and loaded.

BOL and thanks for the early post.

Love The Action · 02-03-12, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

Great pick LTA.

I had 3 totals circled last night for today and this was one. Kind a surprised that it juiced up overnight. I mean I would think most sharp money would be looking under with both stats and situational trends pointing to the under.

Hmmm

Oh well, locked and loaded.

BOL and thanks for the early post.

Could be the sharpies buying the line up to that 194 - 195 range with low-limit early bets, in order to come over the top heavy later when the books open up their limits to normal capacity. Remember, while early money is generally "sharp," you can't always trust what that money is intended for because early wagers are limited in amount. Once the books open up the limits on the day of the game, that's when you will see whether the early move was predictive of a later move or whether that early money was a set-up for a later move in the opposite direction. GL to you as well.

pacocn · 02-03-12, 09:31 AM

Lta, great work, keep it going