LTA's NBA Plays

**jas19illini** · 01-18-12, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

I'll take it. What's the teamrankings formula?

Originally posted by mbs4

Does anybody know the difference between the pace stat on espn and basketball-reference? Thanks.

Here is teamrankings.com's PACE formula:

The _1 suffix means the value is for the team in question. Th _2 suffix means the value is for the opponent(s). All SUM() or AVG() are taken over all games of a season.

Possessions per Game<O

</O

AVG(((fga_1 - oreb_1 + turnovers_1 + (0.475 * fta_1)) + (fga_2 - oreb_2 + turnovers_2 + (0.475 * fta_2))) * 0.5)<O

</O

**mbs4** · 01-18-12, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by jas19illini

Here is teamrankings.com's PACE formula:

The _1 suffix means the value is for the team in question. Th _2 suffix means the value is for the opponent(s). All SUM() or AVG() are taken over all games of a season.

Possessions per Game<O

</O

AVG(((fga_1 - oreb_1 + turnovers_1 + (0.475 * fta_1)) + (fga_2 - oreb_2 + turnovers_2 + (0.475 * fta_2))) * 0.5)<O

</O

Thanks. That looks more like a cbb formula. That and they don't multiply by .96 must be the reason there's is more than espn and basketball-reference.

**Love The Action** · 01-18-12, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

And yet none of us have one.

Speak for yourself. I use multiple free sites, one pay site and I follow all nba beat writers on twitter. Sounds like you have some homework

**Love The Action** · 01-18-12, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

Excellent point which leads me to a question i would love to get ur thoughts on. If i had missed the line move on ur over play today, or any other play for that matter, wouldnt taking the worst number on the opposite side be the same play. In essence couldnt u negate the headache of trying to predict the line move by simply waiting for the move and fading the movement at its peak. Is that the same play?

No!!!! Remind me about this later

**Donnie Brasco** · 01-18-12, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

No!!!! Remind me about this later

I will definitely remind you! Cant wait to hear what u have to say!

**dlunc3** · 01-18-12, 05:13 PM

lta..both my books actually opened today at 204 (they dont open until 12:00

I know, im in the process of getting some new books)

the line is down to 203.5 now.. any thoughts on buying 3 points for -170, and then parlaying the over 200.5 along with the okc -900 ML? I know this is definitely not the traditional way of doing things.. but I hate to miss this strong play. Thanks, and keep up the great work.. you are very appreciated

**doogtonmai** · 01-18-12, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

Excellent point which leads me to a question i would love to get ur thoughts on. If i had missed the line move on ur over play today, or any other play for that matter, wouldnt taking the worst number on the opposite side be the same play. In essence couldnt u negate the headache of trying to predict the line move by simply waiting for the move and fading the movement at its peak. Is that the same play?

Donnie, I know you are waiting for LTA's response, but maybe I can shed some light. If I miss the line movement I hold off and try to catch a better line in Live Betting rather than taking the other side. However, there are times when taking the opposite side in hopes for a bad start by the moving team will adjust the line so much it's good to take the Live Betting line in favor and hope to middle (depends on how much you want to gamble there). If during the game, LTA's pick is looking good, then the 2nd half line would be preferred. Knowing the regulation line is crucial. If it seems it's still a coin flip at half, then go with the best line from the closing regulation line even if it's going against LTA's pick. For example, let's say the game's half-time line you mention is 50-50 and the half-time o/u is 106 then that's the sign to go ahead and take the under. If the 2nd half line is 103 then take the over if that made sense. If it looks like LTA's pick will crush, either lay off or go with the flow and take the even worse line, since I've found 2nd half lines are in favor of Vegas and wanting chasers to double up on a certain side. Of course there are no guarantees, but I've found this to be the most profitable way of hedging, which I'm a big fan of. I'm an aggressive investor hoping to hit those "middles" with 10 to 1 odds even if it's an almost guaranteed win not to let it ride and take the opposite side and hope to middle with little sisk. Respectful conservative investing strategies like LTA is fine because the turtle will still reach the finish line. However, if you like to win 50 units+ per season without risking much then follow these couple of strategies.

**alamo** · 01-18-12, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by doogtonmai

Donnie, I know you are waiting for LTA's response, but maybe I can shed some light. If I miss the line movement I hold off and try to catch a better line in Live Betting rather than taking the other side. However, there are times when taking the opposite side in hopes for a bad start by the moving team will adjust the line so much it's good to take the Live Betting line in favor and hope to middle (depends on how much you want to gamble there). If during the game, LTA's pick is looking good, then the 2nd half line would be preferred. Knowing the regulation line is crucial. If it seems it's still a coin flip at half, then go with the best line from the closing regulation line even if it's going against LTA's pick. For example, let's say the game's half-time line you mention is 50-50 and the half-time o/u is 106 then that's the sign to go ahead and take the under. If the 2nd half line is 103 then take the over if that made sense. If it looks like LTA's pick will crush, either lay off or go with the flow and take the even worse line, since I've found 2nd half lines are in favor of Vegas and wanting chasers to double up on a certain side. Of course there are no guarantees, but I've found this to be the most profitable way of hedging, which I'm a big fan of. I'm an aggressive investor hoping to hit those "middles" with 10 to 1 odds. Respectful conservative investing like LTA is fine because the turtle will still reach the finish line. However, if you like to win 50 units+ per season without risking much then follow these couple of strategies.

Problem with live betting is books charge a lot more juice for the privelege of seeing gameflow. Also If as an example Denver go off for a 70pt first qtr you can forget about getting better numbers than what the lines were pregame. It can work both ways but the juice is a big factor

**absolutkaos** · 01-18-12, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Speak for yourself. I use multiple free sites, one pay site and I follow all nba beat writers on twitter. Sounds like you have some homework

any twitter feeds that you can recommend following?

thx. GL tonight.

**Donnie Brasco** · 01-18-12, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by doogtonmai

Donnie, I know you are waiting for LTA's response, but maybe I can shed some light. If I miss the line movement I hold off and try to catch a better line in Live Betting rather than taking the other side. However, there are times when taking the opposite side in hopes for a bad start by the moving team will adjust the line so much it's good to take the Live Betting line in favor and hope to middle (depends on how much you want to gamble there). If during the game, LTA's pick is looking good, then the 2nd half line would be preferred. Knowing the regulation line is crucial. If it seems it's still a coin flip at half, then go with the best line from the closing regulation line even if it's going against LTA's pick. For example, let's say the game's half-time line you mention is 50-50 and the half-time o/u is 106 then that's the sign to go ahead and take the under. If the 2nd half line is 103 then take the over if that made sense. If it looks like LTA's pick will crush, either lay off or go with the flow and take the even worse line, since I've found 2nd half lines are in favor of Vegas and wanting chasers to double up on a certain side. Of course there are no guarantees, but I've found this to be the most profitable way of hedging, which I'm a big fan of. I'm an aggressive investor hoping to hit those "middles" with 10 to 1 odds. Respectful conservative investing like LTA is fine because the turtle will still reach the finish line. However, if you like to win 50 units+ per season without risking much then follow these couple of strategies.

U lost me bro. I woul love to hear more about this, but it seems very much over my head. I have to study ur post some more, but at this moment i am very confused

**H1Cypher** · 01-18-12, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Speak for yourself. I use multiple free sites, one pay site and I follow all nba beat writers on twitter. Sounds like you have some homework

Calm down there, I use sites everyone is aware of. unless you got some secret site I don't know about, slow your jets.

**apurvaas** · 01-18-12, 05:36 PM

Hedo Turkoglu (G) is out for Magic vs Spurs! is Under 193 play today?

**doogtonmai** · 01-18-12, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Problem with live betting is books charge a lot more juice for the privelege of seeing gameflow. Also If as an example Denver go off for a 70pt first qtr you can forget about getting better numbers than what the lines were pregame. It can work both ways but the juice is a big factor

Live Betting is not for the average investor. I agree the juice is more, but not as bad as buying points, taking a less favorable line, or going against a respected capper's pick on the opposite side of the line movement. I mentioned in the confusing post if one missed the line movement, the favorable team comes out cruising, and the half-time line doesn't seem like a 50/50 of the regulation line, then it's best to lay off or go with the flow. Take the over again in the 2nd half since Vegas will post a line in hopes that the "Under" betters try to double up on the line not wanting to simply take the loss and risk getting middled.

**doogtonmai** · 01-18-12, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

U lost me bro. I woul love to hear more about this, but it seems very much over my head. I have to study ur post some more, but at this moment i am very confused

Donnie, I would lay off the bet unless you can get a Live Betting line back to 199 or so. If the Live Betting line never gets there, then wait till half-time and follow the post above.

**Donnie Brasco** · 01-18-12, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by doogtonmai

Donnie, I would lay off the bet unless you can get a Live Betting line back to 199 or so. If the Live Betting line never gets there, then wait till half-time and follow the post above.

I got the line at 200. Was just curious about what i asked. Thanks so much for the discussion, i just couldnt follow.

**doogtonmai** · 01-18-12, 05:54 PM

Good, I'll buy one point at the most before I use my Live Betting strategies. Gool luck, bro.

**Donnie Brasco** · 01-18-12, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by doogtonmai

Good, I'll buy one point at the most before I use my Live Betting strategies. Gool luck, bro.

Same to you brother!

**chief42** · 01-18-12, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by doogtonmai

Donnie, I would lay off the bet unless you can get a Live Betting line back to 199 or so. If the Live Betting line never gets there, then wait till half-time and follow the post above.

What book do you use to get your live betting on?

**Love The Action** · 01-18-12, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

Calm down there, I use sites everyone is aware of. unless you got some secret site I don't know about, slow your jets.

No...slow your jets. If you use all of these same sites, why would you wait until the pregame show for information? You acted like this information was not available. I was just trying to point you in the right direction, but you responded with attitude for some reason. I have no time or patience for sarcastic and condescending posts. Good luck on your future endeavors.

**NotJoshRay** · 01-18-12, 06:30 PM

Using his numbers though it should finish at about 205.5. So while its terrible value compared to the opening lines, there's still some value.

**apurvaas** · 01-18-12, 06:30 PM

CP3 is out!

**Love The Action** · 01-18-12, 06:33 PM

Damn......i should have locked up the mavs this morning. I thought cp3 would play thereby giving us a great number on the mavs. Now I have a decision to make...

**tom1234** · 01-18-12, 06:36 PM

LTA are you playing DAL?

**apurvaas** · 01-18-12, 06:50 PM

Is DaL U a good play? wanted to tease with mav +3

**Speedy88** · 01-18-12, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by apurvaas

Is DaL U a good play? wanted to tease with mav +3

Mavs are -3 not +3

**apurvaas** · 01-18-12, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

Mavs are -3 not +3

If you tease 6pt, they are +3

**Donkeys2012** · 01-18-12, 07:12 PM

Looks like Dirk is Sick although i would still expect him to play.

**doogtonmai** · 01-18-12, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by doogtonmai

Donnie, I would lay off the bet unless you can get a Live Betting line back to 199 or so. If the Live Betting line never gets there, then wait till half-time and follow the post above.

Just jumped on the Denver O at 190 Live Betting

**alamo** · 01-18-12, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by doogtonmai

Just jumped on the Denver O at 190 Live Betting

190 ?

What book is that...

Im watching my one here and it hasnt gone below 195 yet

**Donnie Brasco** · 01-18-12, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by doogtonmai

Just jumped on the Denver O at 190 Live Betting

Cool, i see what u were saying

**doogtonmai** · 01-18-12, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by alamo

190 ?

What book is that...

Im watching my one here and it hasnt gone below 195 yet

Mine just dropped to 188, and I cannot tell you where due to SBR policies.

I'm locked in at 190 though... (back to 191 as I type this)

These sites are not accurate I make alot of money on mistakes unless it's a trap.

**alamo** · 01-18-12, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by doogtonmai

Mine just dropped to 188, and I cannot tell you where due to SBR policies.

Of course you can...People are always talking about books. I saw 195 at best on one of the biggest live betting companies. Me thinks your telling porkie pies....

**WalkingLuckCharm** · 01-18-12, 07:40 PM

sbr policies ?

**doogtonmai** · 01-18-12, 07:43 PM

<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD width=220>Straight Wager</TD><TD width=100>01/18/12 19:21 ET</TD></TR><TR><TD width=220>bet 230.00 to win 200.00 </TD><TD>Result: Pending </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD class=loserAltColor colspan="2"><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>Nuggets vs 76ers - Live Betting Game Line</TD></TR><TR><TD width=220>Nuggets
76ers
</TD><TD>01/18/12
Over 190 (-115)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR>

**doogtonmai** · 01-18-12, 07:46 PM

I received a warning during the baseball season asking me not to promote other sites on the SBR forum. The game is shaping up perfectly for a 2nd half U hedge.