LTA's NBA Plays

[NotJoshRay]

Yeah. I agree. Before it moves I'm just going to lock in Orlando -12, Den/Mil Under 198, and Hou/Det Under 189 along with a Patriots cover for the weekend since I have a pretty big open bet with Balt so I can watch that game in peace since I'm a fan of neither.

[Redscot]

LTA, my free service is showing me that 81% are on Houston tonight, yet the spread dropped from 8 to 7.5 ......what do you make of that bro, if in fact those numbers jibe with your paid services?

[Love The Action]

LTA, my free service is showing me that 81% are on Houston tonight, yet the spread dropped from 8 to 7.5 ......what do you make of that bro, if in fact those numbers jibe with your paid services?

I see 70% on houston. I lean to the rockets but no play for me.

[shift_knob]

What sample size? This season maybe but that cant really be the basis for backing a team. Historically teams play worse of b2b2b.

Yea. Was this season. It was brought up when okc had that b2b2b so very small size, think they were the 4th or 5th team to do it

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/17/2012

Play #1

Magic (-11)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I am only locking this in and buying the hook now because I think its important to get this at -11 and I won't have time to monitor the lines today. If possible, keep an eye out for -11 at -110. Nevertheless, the line started to move in favor of the magic so Im not taking any chances. This is a situational play based on an extreme fatigue spot that I described in posts above this one (b2b, 5th in 6 & 7 in 9). Even though the magic are also on a b2b, they had two days off before that stretch while the cats were playing 3 in a row. When you combine this fatigue angle with quantitative analysis that shows a huge magic advantage in most sigificant advanced statistical categories. In addition, the cats are playing a small lineup right now that will allow howard to have a huge game in the paint tonight. Many people are questioning howard's heart after a bad game yesteday and I am trusting him to come back very strong tonight. This could be a bigget game for him than the gs game and we will see if he is a man or coward. I have the magic set at -13.5 and with both the quantitative and qualitative factors strongly in favor of the magic, I am rolling with orlando for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nuggets/Bucks over (197) 1x (Locked)

Theres a reason the books opened this game at 201 despite the previous matchup ending at 177 on a closing number of 196.5. The books expect a higher scoring game today and so do I. In the last game, the nuggz shot under 40% for the only time all season and that was due to them being in an extreme fatigue spot. Nevertheless, the PACE of that last game was 94.4. Therefore, if we see just a moderate shooting percentage improvement, this one should fly over assuming these teams play as fast or faster. This is not the same bucks defense that we are used to with a current DEFF ranking of 20th, plus they are on a b2b which will hurt their defense. In addition, the bucks offense is playing much faster than in recent years with an avg PACE of 92. Meanwhile, denver is top 5 in OEFF and top 2 in EFG% and in drawing fouls with a FT/FGA of .268. The refs are capers, boland and roe who are decent over refs. I have this matchup set 199, but I think we see a big scoring game after the bucks struggled shooting last night. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Suns/Bulls under (184.5) 1x (Locked)

Even though the bulls are in a fatigue spot, I expect a much better defensive effort than we saw yesterday. Generally, after a bad defensive performance, no one is better than coach thibs at making adjustments and making sure the players follow those adjustments with max defensive effort. This angle is especially true after a loss. I don't think rose will play, but even if he does I like this play and my numbers assume his participation. Both teams are in the bottom 10 of PACE and as we know from sundays 3 point loss on the suns/spurs over, the suns dont have a lot of consent consistent scoring punch outside of nash and gortat. The bulls are getting watson back, but hamilton remains on the shelf. The refs are spooner, tiven and wright, which isnt the best crew for an under, but spooner is a solid under guy as the crew chief. I have this game set at 184, so not a ton of value, but you will see me back the under quite often in the game after a loss because this angle has been very profitable under coach thibs. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

I see 70% on houston. I lean to the rockets but no play for me.

Gracias! GL tonight .

[TC Woods]

Play #2

Nuggets/Bucks over (197) 1x (Locked)

Theres a reason the books opened this game at 201 despite the previous matchup ending at 177 on a closing number of 196.5. The books expect a higher scoring game today and so do I. In the last game, the nuggz shot under 40% for the only time all season and that was due to them being in an extreme fatigue spot. Nevertheless, the PACE of that last game was 94.4. Therefore, if we see just a moderate shooting percentage improvement, this one should fly over assuming these teams play as fast or faster. This is not the same bucks defense that we are used to with a current DEFF ranking of 20th, plus they are on a b2b which will hurt their defense. In addition, the bucks offense is playing much faster than in recent years with an avg PACE of 92. Meanwhile, denver is top 5 in OEFF and top 2 in EFG% and in drawing fouls with a FT/FGA of .268. The refs are capers, boland and roe who are decent over refs. I have this matchup set 199, but I think we see a big scoring game after the bucks struggled shooting last night. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Suns/Bulls under (184.5) 1x (Locked)

Even though the bulls are in a fatigue spot, I expect a much better defensive effort than we saw yesterday. Generally, after a bad defensive performance, no one is better than coach thibs at making adjustments and making sure the players follow those adjustments with max defensive effort. This angle is especially true after a loss. I don't think rose will play, but even if he does I like this play and my numbers assume his participation. Both teams are in the bottom 10 of PACE and as we know from sundays 3 point loss on the suns/spurs over, the suns dont have a lot of consent consistent scoring punch outside of nash and gortat. The bulls are getting watson back, but hamilton remains on the shelf. The refs are spooner, tiven and wright, which isnt the best crew for an under, but spooner is a solid under guy as the crew chief. I have this game set at 184, so not a ton of value, but you will see me back the under quite often in the game after a loss because this angle has been very profitable under coach thibs. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Something just happened... the line on Chicago/Phx lit up like a xmas tree here http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds...etball/totals/

[Love The Action]

Might have one more play. Does anyone have a confirmed status on chris paul? Thanks.

[balu000]

wow, both lines immediately moved quite a lot in your favor. too bad I was about 1 second late to make the bulls under bet :/
this indicates +ev in the bets, gj

[TC Woods]

wow, both lines immediately moved quite a lot in your favor. too bad I was about 1 second late to make the bulls under bet :/
this indicates +ev in the bets, gj

I got in at 184.5, it has since dropped 2 points at my book

[absolutkaos]

thanks for the plays LTA!

GL tonight!

[Future24]

Might have one more play. Does anyone have a confirmed status on chris paul? Thanks.

Clippers played in LA last night and are back in LA after tonight's game...Chris Paul traveled with the team to Utah. No point in traveling if he definitely is out. I think he plays based on this.

[Redscot]

Clippers getting hit, prolly something to do with Paul....................

[Love The Action]

Clippers getting hit, prolly something to do with Paul....................

That's great news...i hope he's playing so I can get -3.5 on utah.

[wguan2]

So you're looking at the side for the lac Utah game? Why not the total? If cp3 plays I think the over is a great play. What do you think?

[Redscot]

That's great news...i hope he's playing so I can get -3.5 on utah.

I think you might get there partner.


edit: Pinny's total creeping up as well which would indicate a Paul play I assume......

[Love The Action]

So you're looking at the side for the lac Utah game? Why not the total? If cp3 plays I think the over is a great play. What do you think?

Utah's defense is VERY underrated right now. Clip joint in fatigue spot....i could see them dying in the 4th against a surprisingly deep utah team. With paul at less than 100%, I think the better play is the jazz side. GL

[darkenergy]

I took Clippers +4, -102 about 10 minutes ago. Now 5 dimes juiced it up to +4, -108. Pinny move same direction.

[wguan2]

Utah's defense is VERY underrated right now. Clip joint in fatigue spot....i could see them dying in the 4th against a surprisingly deep utah team. With paul at less than 100%, I think the better play is the jazz side. GL

Good points lta. I'm deciding on which way to go but like you said it all depends on cp3. I lean Utah for the side as well. -3.5 would be a steal. What are you looking at when referring to utah's underrate defense? Bol today!

[jck]

heres something interesting I read about the clips /jazz game

1-41. The Clippers have won once in Salt Lake City since 1990. Think about that. Karl Malone and John Stockton were in their fifth seasons in the league when the Jazz began a 41 and 1 string of home wins against the Clippers. The Clippers almost got the job done in their only Utah trip last season, losing in double overtime. But Utah held on in that one to record their 15th straight home win over LA. It would be really nice to have Paul in this game, to put the best Clippers team forward in an attempt to end this streak. But it might have to wait until February 1 when the teams meet in Utah again

[SUPREME]

heres something interesting I read about the clips /jazz game

1-41. The Clippers have won once in Salt Lake City since 1990. Think about that. Karl Malone and John Stockton were in their fifth seasons in the league when the Jazz began a 41 and 1 string of home wins against the Clippers. The Clippers almost got the job done in their only Utah trip last season, losing in double overtime. But Utah held on in that one to record their 15th straight home win over LA. It would be really nice to have Paul in this game, to put the best Clippers team forward in an attempt to end this streak. But it might have to wait until February 1 when the teams meet in Utah again

That's a very useless stat to use in correlation to this game. Both the clips and Utah are very different teams from what they were in '90...or even last season for that matter. I don't think this game is an easy one to call, but following those type of statistics usually lead to bad judgement. No play for me, but BOL to all.

[ShaisterInc]

CP3 Traveled to UTAH but no word on if he's playing yet.

[TC Woods]

Stolen from another site...

Derrick Rose (toe) will not play in Tuesday's game against the Suns.

As expected. The Bulls don't play again until Friday, so Rose will grab two more days of pure rest and rehab. There are no signs that his injury is serious or will linger. Look for C.J. Watson and John Lucas to share minutes at the point in a plus matchup against defensive liability Steve Nash tonight.
Source: K.C. Johnson on Twitter
Jan 17 - 6:19 P

[wguan2]

I think I'm passing on the Utah side. The more I look at it the more I think cp3 will play and this will be one of those games. I've followed cp3 a long time (I'm from Nola) and it feels like it's one of those games where he comes off an injury and dominates the game. Only difference is this isn't a home game but I think that's offset by the motivation to beat a very good home team.

[wguan2]

Edit!!! Scratch what I said. Twitter is blowin up with the fact that cp3 is not playing. I don't use twitter often so I don't know the legit sources but this is what I'm seeing.

[jas19illini]

Bulls and Suns came out shooting hot. Yikes. Lot of game left though.

[riffraff24]

Clippers are +5 now at 5D

[dlunc3]

wtf... den comes out playing lights out d.. chicago cant stop a nose bleed, and jordan decides to come down and play for the bobcats apparently.... lots of game left but wow, they are tryin to make us sweat

[joco]

yea 70 combined pts in the first quarter...thats nuts

[WalkingLuckCharm]

A big fourth quarter by the Magic and continued fast pace at bucks might see the bets go 2-1!

[pokerwhiz90]

So both chicago and phoenix have 15 and 13 assists respectively - theres no chance in hell this is gonna hit the under, but orlando is looking really good

lets just hope that chicago and phoenix stop passing each other the ball, similar to the lakers 3q last night

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/17/2012

Play #1

Magic (-11)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I am only locking this in and buying the hook now because I think its important to get this at -11 and I won't have time to monitor the lines today. If possible, keep an eye out for -11 at -110. Nevertheless, the line started to move in favor of the magic so Im not taking any chances. This is a situational play based on an extreme fatigue spot that I described in posts above this one (b2b, 5th in 6 & 7 in 9). Even though the magic are also on a b2b, they had two days off before that stretch while the cats were playing 3 in a row. When you combine this fatigue angle with quantitative analysis that shows a huge magic advantage in most sigificant advanced statistical categories. In addition, the cats are playing a small lineup right now that will allow howard to have a huge game in the paint tonight. Many people are questioning howard's heart after a bad game yesteday and I am trusting him to come back very strong tonight. This could be a bigget game for him than the gs game and we will see if he is a man or coward. I have the magic set at -13.5 and with both the quantitative and qualitative factors strongly in favor of the magic, I am rolling with orlando for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nuggets/Bucks over (197) 1x (Locked)

Theres a reason the books opened this game at 201 despite the previous matchup ending at 177 on a closing number of 196.5. The books expect a higher scoring game today and so do I. In the last game, the nuggz shot under 40% for the only time all season and that was due to them being in an extreme fatigue spot. Nevertheless, the PACE of that last game was 94.4. Therefore, if we see just a moderate shooting percentage improvement, this one should fly over assuming these teams play as fast or faster. This is not the same bucks defense that we are used to with a current DEFF ranking of 20th, plus they are on a b2b which will hurt their defense. In addition, the bucks offense is playing much faster than in recent years with an avg PACE of 92. Meanwhile, denver is top 5 in OEFF and top 2 in EFG% and in drawing fouls with a FT/FGA of .268. The refs are capers, boland and roe who are decent over refs. I have this matchup set 199, but I think we see a big scoring game after the bucks struggled shooting last night. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Suns/Bulls under (184.5) 1x (Locked)

Even though the bulls are in a fatigue spot, I expect a much better defensive effort than we saw yesterday. Generally, after a bad defensive performance, no one is better than coach thibs at making adjustments and making sure the players follow those adjustments with max defensive effort. This angle is especially true after a loss. I don't think rose will play, but even if he does I like this play and my numbers assume his participation. Both teams are in the bottom 10 of PACE and as we know from sundays 3 point loss on the suns/spurs over, the suns dont have a lot of consent consistent scoring punch outside of nash and gortat. The bulls are getting watson back, but hamilton remains on the shelf. The refs are spooner, tiven and wright, which isnt the best crew for an under, but spooner is a solid under guy as the crew chief. I have this game set at 184, so not a ton of value, but you will see me back the under quite often in the game after a loss because this angle has been very profitable under coach thibs. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Jazz (-4) 1x (Locked)

Locked this in awhile ago but couldn't post because of a work meeting. Just got done now and heading home. Jazz have a much better defense in a fatigue spot for the Clippers and with the Clippers playing with a weakened back court without Paul and Williams. I liked the Jazz even if Paul played, but I wish I could have gotten -3. I have this game set at -5 for the Jazz, but I like fading the Clip joint in this altitude fatigue fade spot. I am rolling with the Jazz for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Holy crap....just got out of work meeting and got in my car to hear the score of the Bulls game. That is unreal. A 70 point first quarter. Come on....I think it's safe to say that one is toast. Let's hope that Charlotte fades in the 4th quarter like I predicted and Milwaukee will start scoring more to match the Nuggz.

Good luck tonight fellas. I'll check back in a couple hours after I eat and hang out with the baby for a bit.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Charlotte has trouble scoring against Orlando. Usually score ranges anywhere from mid 70's to mid 80's.

Told ya.....UNDER 92.5 total points for Charlotte was a steal today.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

overtime please