LTA's NBA Plays

[jas19illini]

Damn, big line move on that Sacramento game. I'm seeing 201. I wish there was an alert feature on here to alert us when certain people post a response. That'd be cool.

[BigBurk]

Wow I was able to get this one at under 201! For both of us; great line movement

[jas19illini]

LTA, D Rose a gametime decision fwiw. He participated in today's shoot around.

[Love The Action]

Well, although you are busy I need to ask how you set this at 202?

Rockets at home have only pulled unders as to date with 190, 179 and 193 points, while the Kings on b2b also only have pulled three unders not coming even close to the 198 line that has been set.

Because none of that matters to me. The quantitative factors of both teams together (player and team stats) conclude this game should go over 200. Past peeves against other teams are more of a red herring imho. GL

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/13/2012

Play #1

Trail Blazers/Spurs over (193) 1x (Locked)

I only worry about two things with this play: (1) Portland is playing out of their comfort zone of the Roze Garden; and (2) Portland's defensive strength is defending the three point shot and the Spurs' offensive strength is making the three point shot -- something has to give and the value here is just too much to pass up. As we all know, this is not the same Portland team from years past that plays a slow half-court game. This new, athletic Portland lineup loves to run, especially when Felton is on the court, and I suspect they will especially want to run tonight in order to ware down the older Spurs who don't have Ginobli. However, San Antonio is a system offense and if they can get into just a little bit of a rhythm, this one should go over. The Spurs are all about finding the open guy and letting him shoot whoever that might be. Popovich has confidence in all of his guys and that's good enough for me. If you look at the advanced stats, even though Portland is 8th overall in DEFF, they are not as efficient defensively on the road. Moreover, their opponent effective shooting % and opponent true shooting % numbers are in the bottom 1/3 of the league. If you go through the schedule, you will see that their defense feasted off of the weaker teams like Phoenix, Cleveland and Sacramento, but has had tough times against the more efficient offenses like Orlando, OKC, Denver and Philly. Tonight, Portland will be facing the #1 team in offensive efficiency as the Spurs' system offense continues to generate points, even without Ginobli. With the Spurs playing at home, I think they find an early rhythm and play a solid game offensively and they surprisingly have a solid advantage in total rebounding %. With that said, however, the other end of the court has been a different story this season for the Spurs. Historically, the Spurs have been one of the better defensive teams, however, this season has not been good defensively for SA. The currently rank at or near the bottom in DEFF, OTS%, OEFG% and even though they have solid opponent offensive and defensive rebounding % numbers, I think the length, athleticism and quickness of Portland could pose problems for Duncan and Blair down low tonight. This play is all about the value. Pinny opened up at 195.5 and saw early under money, perhaps because we are seeing a matchup of defensive strength versus offensive strength. However, I'm not so sure this was just someone setting the market up for a big buy on the over at a better number because my numbers have this one at 197.5, which is 2 points more the Pinny's opener and 4.5 points of value compared to the 193 I bought. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Kings/Rockets over (198) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup right now...maybe later. I have this set at 202 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bulls/Celtics under (178.5) 1x (Locked)

I expect both offenses to struggle tonight regardless of rose's health and a slow half-court pace to control. I have this game set at 1, so not the most value but this is set low for a reason. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[dynasty27]

really like that under on the bulls, happy friday lets make some beer money for the weekend

[Love The Action]

Guys...please post breaking injury news today. I will be very busy at work with limited time. Thanks.

What are your favorite, free online sources for breaking nba injury news?

[bringdownthehous]

What are your favorite, free online sources for breaking nba injury news?

rotoworld.com....usually very up to date with injuries

[jas19illini]

What are your favorite, free online sources for breaking nba injury news?

In addition to this, does anyone know of a good injury source to follow on t***ter? I get good hockey injury updates on there, but don't have an NBA one yet. I hope mentioning this isn't against the rules. Though it shouldn't be bc its no different than someone posting a website on here.

[kl06ty]

Andrea Bargnani for Toronto will be out, and that is pretty much the only offensive presence the Raptors have had for the season

[jas19illini]

Update, D Rose said himself that he's playing tonight.

[Full-Grown]

What are your favorite, free online sources for breaking nba injury news?

Sports Insights twitter sends injury updates.

[jas19illini]

Sports Insights twitter sends injury updates.

+1

That's one of the ones I use for hockey. Imo, t***ter is an ideal way to get injury updates. No website searching required, and the phone app is very convenient. Some other decent ones I just found on there are:

NBA News
NBANEWSLIVE
Sports Connection
The NBA on ESPN

Hope this helps.

[dizzydtw]

Holy cow! HOU/SAC o/u is 201 on some boards now...

[jas19illini]

Kidd out for Mavs today.

[pokerwhiz90]

Nice also loaded some plays on pacers -5.5 and Bulls -2.5 - i think both of those are locks as well, what do you think lta?

[wguan2]

LTA, what do you have the chicago/boston game set at? You have a typo in you write-up. I'm just making sure to know what number i should be taking

[kl06ty]

Nice also loaded some plays on pacers -5.5 and Bulls -2.5 - i think both of those are locks as well, what do you think lta?

I bet on Boston but I am really stuck between just cancelling the bet. A healthy Rose, Chicago no doubt. However, I cannot see Rose playing over 35+ minutes today. They don't want to cause more injury to such a minor one. IMHO

[pokerwhiz90]

yeah rose will get limited minutes but it's chicago's defense that i bet on, i never rely on their offense - the bulls have almost a 10pt differential in pts scored and given up, and they don't score too much

the celtics - look at who they played and what teams they have lost too, highlighting the pacers win over the celtics, younger, faster teams have an obvious advantage over them

[dlunc3]

Mello doubtful tonight

[darkenergy]

LTA,
Can you provide your insight about total on Laker game.
I have this game quite large on UNDER 186, and add more at 187 (7x total). Your opinion is greatly appreciated.
Best of luck on your card tonight LTA, and crews.

[That Guy]

LTA - what did you have the Bulls game set at?
There is a typo in your writeup and I can only get 175 now.
Thanks!

[Dmil]

Mello doubtful tonight

Meaning tomorrow at OKC

[Love The Action]

For those asking, I have the bulls game at 176 and would not play it below that number. Posting more plays now that I locked in earlier. GL

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/13/2012

Play #1

Trail Blazers/Spurs over (193) 1x (Locked)

I only worry about two things with this play: (1) Portland is playing out of their comfort zone of the Roze Garden; and (2) Portland's defensive strength is defending the three point shot and the Spurs' offensive strength is making the three point shot -- something has to give and the value here is just too much to pass up. As we all know, this is not the same Portland team from years past that plays a slow half-court game. This new, athletic Portland lineup loves to run, especially when Felton is on the court, and I suspect they will especially want to run tonight in order to ware down the older Spurs who don't have Ginobli. However, San Antonio is a system offense and if they can get into just a little bit of a rhythm, this one should go over. The Spurs are all about finding the open guy and letting him shoot whoever that might be. Popovich has confidence in all of his guys and that's good enough for me. If you look at the advanced stats, even though Portland is 8th overall in DEFF, they are not as efficient defensively on the road. Moreover, their opponent effective shooting % and opponent true shooting % numbers are in the bottom 1/3 of the league. If you go through the schedule, you will see that their defense feasted off of the weaker teams like Phoenix, Cleveland and Sacramento, but has had tough times against the more efficient offenses like Orlando, OKC, Denver and Philly. Tonight, Portland will be facing the #1 team in offensive efficiency as the Spurs' system offense continues to generate points, even without Ginobli. With the Spurs playing at home, I think they find an early rhythm and play a solid game offensively and they surprisingly have a solid advantage in total rebounding %. With that said, however, the other end of the court has been a different story this season for the Spurs. Historically, the Spurs have been one of the better defensive teams, however, this season has not been good defensively for SA. The currently rank at or near the bottom in DEFF, OTS%, OEFG% and even though they have solid opponent offensive and defensive rebounding % numbers, I think the length, athleticism and quickness of Portland could pose problems for Duncan and Blair down low tonight. This play is all about the value. Pinny opened up at 195.5 and saw early under money, perhaps because we are seeing a matchup of defensive strength versus offensive strength. However, I'm not so sure this was just someone setting the market up for a big buy on the over at a better number because my numbers have this one at 197.5, which is 2 points more the Pinny's opener and 4.5 points of value compared to the 193 I bought. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Kings/Rockets over (198) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup right now...maybe later. I have this set at 202 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bulls/Celtics under (178.5) 1x (Locked)

I expect both offenses to struggle tonight regardless of rose's health and a slow half-court pace to control. I have this game set at 1, so not the most value but this is set low for a reason. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Heat/Nuggets over (210) 1x (Locked)

Two fastest offenses and best in OEFF against tired defenses and players that love to drive to the hoop and draw fouls. I have this game set at 213.5 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[blumpkin]

LTA thoughts on MIl/Dal over 183.5? Thx for all your hard work

[tom1234]

Play #4

Heat/Nuggets over (210) 1x (Locked)

Two fastest offenses and best in OEFF against tired defenses and players that love to drive to the hoop and draw fouls. I have this game set at 213.5 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

LTA, are plays final?

[Love The Action]

LTA, are plays final?

Final. Good luck.

[doogtonmai]

I'm rolling with the Cavaliers for a unit tonight. Friday night in LA...Bryant is single and probably has a hot date on his mind. Live Betting in full affect if it's going to be a simple movie night for big guy.

[No coincidences]

WTF happened to the scoring in the 4Q of the SAC/HOU game?

[dlunc3]

and in the 3Q of the port/sa game

[No coincidences]

Kings just rolled over and died.

[dlunc3]

need some ot in SA

[doogtonmai]

I'm already at five units on the Denver O after seeing all these let downs tonite.

[celtics3388]

whoops wrong thread disregard this