LTA's NBA Plays

[jas19illini]

Ironically, I was leaning towards the same side on all 3 plays LTA. BOL tonight my friend.

[jas19illini]

Well we actually agree on one play today... ORL/GS under, although you got a better line. I've been away and unable to track much today. I'm also looking at ATL/CHA over and PHO/CLE under. Hell the way things have gone you could blind bet the under and probably hit 3 of 5 today.

The lines are starting to adjust so I wouldn't recommend it, but some of these teams the linesmakers can't go low enough.

To the guy talking about predicting pace...Basketball on Paper is your bible also get familiar with not only pace and what makes it up, but off/def efficiency and also team/league averages (eg. pts scored/allowed home and away) I use some of Pomroy's ideas and methods for predicting efficiency and pace in one of my systems.

Also, familiarize yourself with standard deviations and how you can use to find inefficiency's. I incorporated this concept into my model this year and have seen seen very consistent results, in fact my ATL/CHA over is based off this concept.

I like the ATL Over and PHX Under as well tonight. Gonna play em?

[Jill_Cools]

Been tailing you all week LTA. Keep up the good work! $$$$$$

[nocode1]

I looks like the bucks couldn't care less about D tonight and just wanna get the win...... I think they are looking ahead to Dallas......which is why the under looks in trouble dammit

[Trivial]

I looks like the bucks couldn't care less about D tonight and just wanna get the win...... I think they are looking ahead to Dallas......which is why the under looks in trouble dammit

Please leave these negative comments out of this thread (see LTA's response previously). Anything can happen tonight, and the negativity is what kills.

[Dave88]

I looks like the bucks couldn't care less about D tonight and just wanna get the win...... I think they are looking ahead to Dallas......which is why the under looks in trouble dammit

geez, only been 1 quarter, stay positive.

[brucethebear]

It's funny, there is about 10 points less in the NYK game, and I am cheering for it to hurry up, and the Bucks game to slow down!

[SlickRick1382]

Slowed down alot in the 2Q

We're still in it and not too far off the required numbers. Considering the 1Q we had this is a great situation ..

[Dave88]

Slowed down alot in the 2Q

We're still in it and not too far off the required numbers. Considering the 1Q we had this is a great situation ..

[HKT]

Need the bucks to come back to earth on their shooting numbers. 7-14 on 3's and over 50% overall. Come on man!
In the Knicks game, they've got to do better than 33.3 %

[therocket]

Please leave these negative comments out of this thread (see LTA's response previously). Anything can happen tonight, and the negativity is what kills.

Positivity breeds positivity. Good energy is contagious. Keep the good vibes goin cuz it ain't over till its over

[I am Happy]

Both bets are spent...negativity or not... Let's get the next one I see that I share with the forum

[mikea33]

need 60 in knicks game....not out of question

[burchfield]

Both bets are spent...negativity or not... Let's get the next one I see that I share with the forum

agreed

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/12/2012

Play #1

Pistons/Bucks under (177.5) 1x (Locked)

I am jumping on this one now as I expect this one to drop to 176 by Thursday morning and a closing number around 175. We have both team suffering from depth problems due to injury with Stuckey downgraded to doubtful for Detroit and Villanueva questionable, while the Bucks will be without Dunleavy and Moute, with Udrih upgraded to questionable. Without Stuckey, the Pistons don't have any scoring threats, especially with Ben Gordon playing like a shell of his former self. On the other hand, the Bucks do have Bogut back, but I think that actually helps our under play as the Bucks will slow down their recent fast pace and play a more half court oriented game. Detroit ranks at or near the bottom of the league in all of the major advanced statistical categories such as OEFF, TS%,EFG%, etc., while the Bucks continue to rank at the top of the league in advanced defensive categories behind the defensive task master-like coach in Scott Skiles. I don't expect Detroit to play with a lot of energy because they are in a small fatigue spot playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, while the Bucks are rested and playing at home for the first time after a long road trip. Consequently, I expect maximum defensive effort, but a poor shooting game in this classic let down spot with the Bucks playing their first home game in awhile. Detroit has almost no chance to win, but Milwaukee has had two great shooting performances in a row against the Suns and Spurs and this team just can't sustain such a high percentage. I fully expect a regression tomorrow and a poor shooting performance from the Bucks as a team. Neither team will be looking to run tomorrow and I think we see a rather ugly game which will be won on the defensive end, most likely by the Bucks. I have this game set at 174 giving us a full 3 points of variance between my number and what the books are giving us at the moment and that is just too much value to pass up. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Magic/Warriors under (189) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup. Magic have shot lights out two games in a row and I expect a regression against a hard working, rested, if not good warrior defense. The warriors offense has limited weapons with curry out and I don't think ellis and lee can do it alone against the magics top ten defense in DEFF. Howard is a beast inside and should be able to limit the opposing frontcourt. Both offenses are slow in the bottom 10 of PACE. This play is entirely dependent on team shooting and I expect a regression for both after their recent solid performances. I have this game set at 185.5 and I'm rolling with the value on the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Knicks/Grizzlies over (193) 1x (Locked)

We have two teams with top 10 PACE ratings, who have struggling defenses because of fatigue in the case of the knicks and injury in the case of memphis. Regardless, I think the books have overvalued the the under way too much in this spot as last season saw this matchup go over every game with totals set at least 10 points higher. This total is dropping as I hit the keys on my phone, but I think we see some buyback on the over resulting in a closer around 194. I have this game set at 197, so as soon as I saw 193 I had to jump on this play as I expect a very fast paced game. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Parlay

Magic ML (-151)/under (189)(-120) (+201) 0.70x (Locked)

We already have a play on the under at 189 and I also love the Magic in this spot with their sheer domination in almost every controlling advanced statistical category. I have the Magic set at -4 and -170 as I see them winning this matchup more than the books. Many view GS's wins at home against some of the best teams in the league as the reason that they can beat the Magic tonight, however, I think they got really lucky against the Heat and will not be able to do that again tonight. I just don't see such role players as Wright and Robinson exploding for more than 3x their season point averages again tonight like they did against the Heat. GS should have significant regression tonight. One of the biggest reasons for this play is Howard's imposing presence in the middle. I am expecting a big game out of Howard both offensively and defensively in dominating the paint because GS just doens't have the size and muscle to keep up. We're getting a valuable price on both the ML and total, with the ability to buy up to 189 for a minimal price. I am very confident that the Magic win in a game that stays under 189, so I am going to step out a bit and roll with a par for 0.70x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I'm putting together some toys for the baby, so not watching the games. Based on the box score, however, the Knicks are really bad. I can just imagine how ugly this game must be....

No big deal. Losses happen. That's why it's all about the long term and why we practice strict money management. We expect the best, but are prepared to handle any result good or bad.

Let's bounce back with this late game. Good luck .

[dlunc3]

good stuff...wright being out is an added bonus

[fecgp40]

5 dimes won't let me parlay the magic ML with the under. Wow how horrible. GL everyone.

[TC Woods]

Det/Milw

[dlunc3]

good stuff...wright being out is an added bonus

to go along with no curry or kwame

[alamo]

Det/Milw

Det/Mil shot 41/41 from the FT line tonight

[dlunc3]

warriors shooting 61%...hopefully that cant last

[Ryannn222]

took your advice tonight soo far i am 0-2 and this is my first time on this site....just great!

[mikea33]

took your advice tonight soo far i am 0-2 and this is my first time on this site....just great!

then leave buddy. LTA is the most profitable capper in NBA section.

[pokerwhiz90]

hey ryann, sorry to hear, when i first started tailing, i also started with a string of losses. but it's been a year now, and its all good brotha

[joco]

disregarding lta's avatar, its not like he put a gun to ur head n made u tail him

[mikea33]

LTA must say i loaded up on Warriors +3 and it looks good so far.....but BOL regardless

[fecgp40]

Det/Mil shot 41/41 from the FT line tonight

Wow... That's pretty incredible. When's the last time that happened in an NBA game?

[TC Woods]

Whiners need to leave

[PolishSensation]

Given LTA's track record, if you follow him throughout the year you'll end up ahead of the game. Gambling is about discipline. Tough nights like these don't rattle good gamblers, it's part of the process.

Anyway, game's not over yet, why are we talking like it's over already?

[alamo]

took your advice tonight soo far i am 0-2 and this is my first time on this site....just great!

Thanks for dropping in Ryannn to give us some of your negativety. There's a great capper called "Sammy". Highly recommend him ahead of LTA. Thx for stopping by and see ya...

[brucethebear]

took your advice tonight soo far i am 0-2 and this is my first time on this site....just great!

Ahhh - so it's all your fault....

[SoxSide Irish]

So hack-a-dwight up 11 in the second quarter? Mark Jackson should be fired tomorrow

[SoxSide Irish]

LTA must say i loaded up on Warriors +3 and it looks good so far.....but BOL regardless

Beat It

[Dexter]

Been tailing you all week LTA. Keep up the good work! $$$$$$

wow..if that's you in your avatar....